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INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY RESEARCH

Page | 1 | PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH

Britannia Industries (BRIT IN)

Priced to perfection

INDIA | FMCG | Quarterly Update

14 November 2018

Top takeaways from Q2FY19 Significantly better than our estimates due to strong momentum in domestic business,

foray into new categories (wafer biscuits), and increasing salience of premium products. Domestic business saw its fourth consecutive quarter of double-digit volume growth on: (1) solid performance in domestic business via higher A&P and re-launches, (2) new product launches/ foray into new categories, and (3) focus on increasing distribution network in traditionally weaker areas (Hindi Belt + Gujarat grew at 1.5x Britannia’s overall run-rate). On a two-year CAGR, adjusted volume growth of 9% is quite commendable.

Management said that rural growth continued to outpace urban growth, which has been the trend across most FMCG companies; it expects momentum to sustain in coming quarters as general elections will boost consumer spending.

International business grew in double-digits, despite slowdown in key geographies of Middle East and Africa, as Britannia forayed into newer countries within Africa. It plans to start the Nepal plant in 4QFY19.

Management justified gross margins expansion of c.220bps yoy to 39.7%, despite RM headwinds, based on: (1) it is largely covered for any RM inflation till mid 4QFY19, (2) high salience of premium products, (3) increasing share of in-house manufacturing, and (4) for its bread business, it has shifted to contract manufacturing from direct procurement. Britannia plans hike prices by 3-4% in 2HFY19 to mitigate RM inflation.

EBITDA grew only c.20% yoy (in line with strong gross profit growth) due to ad-campaigns (up 20%) carried out to celebrate its centenary. Management expects ad sends to normalise from 2HFY19. PAT growth was lower than EBITDA growth due to lower other income (declined 13.5% yoy).

We like the narrative, but not valuation: We remain overweight on the foods space over HPC, based on the following factors: (1) formalisation will be more visible in foods space, given higher share of unorganized sector, (2) setting up more large/integrated manufacturing facilities will in turn help to derive benefits of economies of scale and reduce wastage, (3) distribution infrastructure will improve (availability of refrigerators / other ancillary infra), and 4) focus on LUP will drive penetration.

Nestle/GSK Consumer remain our top picks within the large-cap/mid-Cap FMCG space. We like the Britannia management’s narrative of driving topline and bottomline growth by strengthening power brands via innovation/re-launches and premiumization, enhancing direct distribution reach, increasing the share of in-housing manufacturing, and focussing on cost-efficiencies programme (planning savings of Rs 2.25bn in FY19, and foraying into newer categories (croissants/wafer biscuits), but valuations remain very expensive (54x FY20 EPS), particularly in the context of 14% earnings CAGR over FY18-21.

We maintain NEUTRAL with a target of Rs 4,900 (40x Dec-20 EPS) as elevated valuation do not leave room for even minor disappointments. Key risk: higher than expected RM inflation and increase in competitive intensity

Neutral (Maintain) CMP RS 5825 TARGET RS 4900 (-16%)

COMPANY DATA

O/S SHARES (MN) : 120

MARKET CAP (RSBN) : 694

MARKET CAP (USDBN) : 10

52 - WK HI/LO (RS) : 6944 / 4400

LIQUIDITY 3M (USDMN) : 2.1

PAR VALUE (RS) : 2

SHARE HOLDING PATTERN, %

Sep 18 Jun 18 Mar 18

PROMOTERS : 50.7 50.7 50.7

FII / NRI : 16.7 17.5 17.3

FI / MF : 12.6 12.0 12.4

NON PRO : 3.8 3.7 3.8

PUBLIC & OTHERS : 16.3 16.1 15.9

KEY FINANCIALS

Rs mn FY19E FY20E FY21E

Net Sales 1,10,585 1,24,596 1,40,440 EBIDTA 17,925 21,014 24,178 Net Profit 11,532 12,983 14,849 EPS, Rs 96.0 108.1 123.6 PER, x 60.7 53.9 47.1 EV/EBIDTA, x 38.3 32.4 27.8 P/BV, x 16.7 13.8 11.6 ROE, % 27.5 25.6 24.6 Debt/Equity (%) 4.2 3.5 2.9 Vishal Gutka and Preeyam Tolia

(Rs mn) Q2FY19 Q2FY18 yoy Q1FY19 qoq vs. our

estimates % Comments

Volume growth (% yoy) 13.0 6.0 12.5 Volume growth largely led by the premium segment

Net Sales 28,548 25,365 12.5 25,272 13.0 8.7

Gross Profits 11,343 9,525 19.1 10,009 13.3 10.7

Gross Margin (%) 39.7 37.6 218bps 39.6 13bps 70bps Gross margins grew on low-cost inventory and product mix

Staff costs 1080.4 1069.8 1.0 1086.1 -0.5 15.0

Other operating expenses 5,867 4,766 23.1 5,195 12.9 12.0

EBITDA 4,544 3,777 20.3 3,894 16.7 8.7

EBITDA margin (%) 15.9 14.9 103bps 15.4 51bps 0bps

PBT 4,590 3,934 16.7 3,933 16.7 8.5

Adj. PAT 3,030 2,611 16.1 2,582 17.3 8.0


BRITANNIA INDUSTRIES QUARTERLY UPDATE

Volume growth driven by premium products and enhanced Low-cost inventory and better product mix led

distribution reach to gross-margin expansion

Source: PhillipCapital India Research

New launches and renovation

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Flour Sugar RPO Milk

2Q - commodity inflation (%)



Two-year forward P/E band EV/EBITDA band

Source: PhillipCapital India Research Estimates

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Con-call takeaways

Rural continues to grow faster than urban.

Despite a slowdown in the Middle East and Africa, its international business grew in double digits.

Its Mudra factory, which was commercialised in Q2FY9, will provide a cost advantage and improve efficiency in serving international markets, especially the Middle East and Africa.

The biscuits facility has been commercialised in the Ranjangaon factory; cake and croissant production will start soon. The Ranjangaon facility will contribute 8-10% of the national capacity.

It expects to add 200,000-250,000 outlets every year and targets to reach 2.5mn in the near term, which the company believes is achievable.

It plans to add another two plants in the east and north each and one plant in the south in the next 2-3 years. Capex for FY19 stands at Rs 5bn.

Currently, 55% of the production in volume terms is in house; it targets bringing this up to 65%.

Its overall cost savings target in FY19 is Rs 2.25bn (same as FY18) led by cost efficiency in the factory (labour, power & fuel, material usage, etc.) and a change in logistics arrangements that has reduced the transported distance for biscuits.

Capex for FY19 stands at Rs 5bn. Biscuits

Launched Pure Magic Chocolush, Goodday Cashew Almond, Tiger Choco Cookies, and Veg-muffins. It also re-launched Britannia 50-50 and Bour-Bon with new packaging.

Forayed into wafers by launching Crème Wafers, which has seen strong response from consumers; however, it is available only in southern states. Currently, the market size for wafers biscuits stands at Rs 4-5bn, with 20% CAGR. This market is widely fragmented, which offers huge opportunity as it is highly under penetrated compared to western countries.

The premium portfolio is growing faster than the value portfolio (the value portfolio is defined as less than about Rs 100/kg) for the entire industry. Value portfolio contribution has come down to 40% from 50% for the industry in last 4-5 years.

Dairy

It launched Britannia Winkin Thick Shakes (Rs 25) and Dairy Whitener Jar (Rs 159) in Q3. Currently, the dairy whitener market is divided into retail (Rs 30bn) and institutional (Rs 15bn); Britannia plans to focus only on the retail market.



Financials

Income Statement Y/E Mar, Rs mn FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E

Net sales 99,056 1,10,585 1,24,596 1,40,440 Growth, % 7 12 13 13 Other operating income 845 866 970 1,086 Total income 99,901 1,11,451 1,25,566 1,41,526 Raw material expenses -61,832 -67,088 -75,138 -84,531 Employee expenses -4,016 -4,478 -5,015 -5,617 Other Operating expenses -19,036 -21,960 -24,399 -27,200 EBITDA (Core) 15,017 17,925 21,014 24,178 Growth, % 17.5 19.4 17.2 15.1 Margin, % 15.2 16.2 16.9 17.2 Depreciation -1,421 -1,682 -2,175 -2,650 EBIT 13,596 16,243 18,838 21,528 Growth, % 17.3 19.5 16.0 14.3 Margin, % 13.7 14.7 15.1 15.3 Interest paid -76 -383 -677 -683 Other Income 1,664 1,747 1,660 1,826 Pre-tax profit 15,182 17,607 19,822 22,671 Tax provided -5,142 -6,074 -6,838 -7,821 Profit after tax 10,040 11,532 12,983 14,849 Others (Minorities, Associates) 3 0 0 0 Net Profit 10,042 11,532 12,983 14,849 Growth, % 13.5 14.8 12.6 14.4 Net Profit (adjusted) 10,042 11,532 12,983 14,849 Unadj. shares (m) 120 120 120 120 Wtd avg shares (m) 120 120 120 120

Balance Sheet Y/E Mar, Rs mn FY18E FY19E FY20E FY21E

Cash & bank 1,864 6,508 12,381 19,880 Marketable securities at cost 8,568 8,568 8,568 8,568 Debtors 3,046 3,401 3,831 4,319 Inventory 6,528 7,288 8,211 9,255 Loans & advances 8,443 8,443 8,443 8,443 Other current assets 3,063 3,063 3,063 3,063 Total current assets 31,513 37,271 44,498 53,528 Investments 2,225 2,225 2,225 2,225 Gross fixed assets 16,828 21,828 26,828 31,828 Less: Depreciation -3,372 -5,054 -7,229 -9,879 Add: Capital WIP 2,028 2,028 2,028 2,028 Net fixed assets 15,484 18,802 21,627 23,977 Non-current assets 2,432 2,432 2,432 2,432 Total assets 51,879 60,955 71,007 82,387 Current liabilities 16,480 17,637 19,043 20,633 Provisions 89 89 89 89 Total current liabilities 16,568 17,725 19,131 20,721 Non-current liabilities 1,117 1,117 1,117 1,117 Total liabilities 17,686 18,842 20,249 21,839 Paid-up capital 240 240 240 240 Reserves & surplus 33,822 41,741 50,387 60,177 Shareholders’ equity 34,194 42,112 50,759 60,549 Total equity & liabilities 51,879 60,955 71,007 82,387

Source: Company, PhillipCapital India Research Estimates

Cash Flow Y/E Mar, Rs mn FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E

Pre-tax profit 15,182 17,607 19,822 22,671 Depreciation 1,421 1,682 2,175 2,650 Chg in working capital 2,424 43 52 59 Total tax paid -5,137 -6,074 -6,838 -7,821 Other operating activities -1,402 0 0 0 Cash flow from operating activities 12,488 13,257 15,210 17,558 Capital expenditure -5,004 -5,000 -5,000 -5,000 Chg in investments 895 0 0 0 Chg in marketable securities -6,820 0 0 0 Other investing activities 1,368 0 0 0 Cash flow from investing activities -9,563 -5,000 -5,000 -5,000 Free cash flow 2,925 8,257 10,210 12,558 Equity raised/(repaid) 1,239 7,200 0 0 Debt raised/(repaid) 532 0 0 0 Dividend (incl. tax) -3,179 -3,614 -4,337 -5,059 Other financing activities -1,017 131 0 0 Cash flow from financing activities -2,318 3,586 -4,337 -5,059 Net chg in cash 608 11,844 5,874 7,499

Valuation Ratios

FY18E FY19E FY20E FY21E

Per Share data EPS (INR) 83.6 96.0 108.1 123.6

Growth, % 13.5 14.8 12.6 14.4 Book NAV/share (INR) 283.6 349.5 421.5 503.1 FDEPS (INR) 83.6 96.0 108.1 123.6 CEPS (INR) 95.4 110.0 126.2 145.7 CFPS (INR) 100.9 95.8 112.8 131.0 DPS (INR) 22.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 Return ratios

Return on assets (%) 21.8 21.1 20.7 20.2 Return on equity (%) 29.5 27.5 25.6 24.6 Return on capital employed (%) 32.1 30.3 28.7 27.3 Turnover ratios

Asset turnover (x) 4.9 4.9 4.9 5.0 Sales/Total assets (x) 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.8 Sales/Net FA (x) 7.2 6.5 6.2 6.2 Receivable days 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.2 Inventory days 24.1 24.1 24.1 24.1 Payable days 42.7 43.3 43.7 43.8 Working capital days 17.0 15.0 13.2 11.6 Liquidity ratios Current ratio (x) 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.6 Quick ratio (x) 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 Interest cover (x) 179.1 42.4 27.8 31.5 Total debt/Equity (%) 5.2 4.2 3.5 2.9 Net debt/Equity (%) (0.2) (11.3) (20.9) (30.0) Valuation PER (x) 69.7 60.7 53.9 47.1 PEG (x) - y-o-y growth 5.1 4.1 4.3 3.3 Price/Book (x) 20.5 16.7 13.8 11.6 EV/Net sales (x) 7.0 6.2 5.5 4.8 EV/EBITDA (x) 46.0 38.3 32.4 27.8 EV/EBIT (x) 50.8 42.3 36.1 31.3



Stock Price, Price Target and Rating History

Rating Methodology We rate stock on absolute return basis. Our target price for the stocks has an investment horizon of one year.

Rating Criteria Definition

BUY >= +15% Target price is equal to or more than 15% of current market price

NEUTRAL -15% > to < +15% Target price is less than +15% but more than -15%

SELL <= -15% Target price is less than or equal to -15%.

B (TP 3450) B (TP 3450) B (TP 3050)

N (TP 3280) N (TP 3350) N (TP 3440) N (TP 3520)

N (TP 4080)

N (TP 4400) N (TP 4450)

N (TP 5540|

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A-17 J-17 J-17 S-17 O-17 N-17 J-18 F-18 A-18 M-18

J-18 A-18 O-18



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