INSTITUTE OF ENERGY STRATEGY
Future prospects of Russian gas demand in Europe after
Fukushima
Is there a chance for Golden Age of Russian gas?
Alexey GROMOVPhD in Economic Geography
Deputy General DirectorInstitute of Energy Strategy, Moscow
The WEO forecast for Europe for 2011 was revised with an increase of 40 BCM by 2035
European expectations: gas demand grows
Source: International Energy AgencyFig. 1 – Comparison of WEO-2010 and WEO-2011 for European gas demand
Gazprom Outlook
Russian expectations: excessive optimism
Actual data
Gazprom expects the increase of the Russian gas supply in Europe by 1,5 times (+ 80 BCM) by 2030 in comparison with 2010
Source: GazpromFig. 2 – Russian gas supply to Europe (forecast)
Positive and negative trends for Russian gas in EU
Germany: gas instead of nuclear power?
Сompletely replacement of nuclear power in Germany EXCLUSIVELY by gas does not require more than 33-39 BCM of natural gas
Source: BP statistical review 2011
Fig. 3 – Primary energy consumption by fuel type (from 1965)
Source: BP statistical review 2011
Fig. 4 – Primary energy consumption by fuel type , %
Primary energy consumption has been reducing consistently for the last 20 years in Germany
The share of nuclear energy in the energy mix in Germany is only 10% or 30-33 Mtoe
From 1990 to 2010 share of renewable energy in total energy consumption increased from 0.1 to 5.8%, the major growth occured in the period of high energy prices in 2000-2010.
Nord Stream project: is it only increase in export?
Commissioning phase of “Nord stream” pipeline(+55 billion cubic meters per year)
Source: GazpromFig. 5 – Milestone of increasing the capacity of export pipelines to Europe
Nord Stream will increase the export capacity to Europe by 55 billion cubic meter by the end of 2012.
The refusal of Bulgaria and Croatia from Russian gas: is it the precedent?
The refusal of Bulgaria and Croatia from Russian gas would reduce Gazprom export to Europe by 3.5 BCM
Source: GazpromFig. 6 – Dynamics of Gazprom gas supplies to Bulgaria and Croatia, 2003-2010.
Share of Russian gas on the EU gas market continues to decline...
In spite of Russian gas export volume recovery in 2010, the share of Russian natural gas supplies in the EU has continued to decline
Source: BP statistical review 2011
Fig. 8 – Breakdown of EU27 Supplies
Source: BP statistical review 2011
Fig. 9 – Breakdown of EU27 Supplies by transportation type
What next?
Thank you for your attention
www.energystrategy.ru
Alexey GROMOVDeputy General Director
Institute of Energy Strategy, Moscow
The Energy of the Future in our Hands
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