Potholes are a Problem
Source: New York Times, Joshua Jamerson 30, 2015
Target user – Department of Transportation NYC
Motivation – liability ($140 million)
Problem – Number of potholes varies drastically by month to month
Analysis
Data● NYC non-emergency call data (311)● NOAA historic weather data
Features● ~20 features● Engineered another ~50 features ● Month of year● Weather in previous months● Rolling Mean● Moving Average● Autoregressive
Model● Linear regression● Recursive Feature Elimination
About Me
Dyfrig MonSwansea University (UK)PhD - Applied PhysicsSolar Cells, X-rays and Neutron scattering
All Features
● Snow fall 1 month ago
● Snow fall 2 months ago
● Snow fall 3 months ago
● Snow fall 4 months ago
● Snow fall change between 1 and 2 months ago
● Snow fall change between 2 and 3 months ago
● Snow fall change between 3 and 4 months ago
● Snow fall change between 4 and 5 months ago
● Snow fall 1 month ago ^2
● Snow fall 2 months ago ^2
● Snow fall 3 months ago ^2
● Snow fall 4 months ago ^2
All Features
● Snow fall change between 1 and 2 months ago ^2
● Snow fall change between 2 and 3 months ago ^2
● Snow fall change between 3 and 4 months ago ^2
● Snow fall change between 4 and 5 months ago ^2
● Snow fall 1 month ago ^3
● Snow fall 2 months ago ^3
● Snow fall 3 months ago ^3
● Snow fall 4 months ago ^3
● Snow fall change between 1 and 2 months ago ^3
● Snow fall change between 2 and 3 months ago ^3
● Snow fall change between 3 and 4 months ago ^3
● Snow fall change between 4 and 5 months ago ^3
All Features
● Mean Temperature 1 month ago
● Mean Temperature 2 months ago
● Mean Temperature 3 months ago
● Mean Temperature 4 months ago
● Mean Temperature change between 1 and 2 months ago
● Mean Temperature change between 2 and 3 months ago
● Mean Temperature change between 3 and 4 months Ago
● Mean Temperature change between 4 and 5 months Ago
● Precipitation 1 month ago
● Precipitation 2 months ago
● Precipitation 3 months ago
All Features
● Precipitation 4 months ago
● Precipitation change between 1 and 2 months ago
● Precipitation change between 2 and 3 months ago
● Precipitation change between 3 and 4 months ago
● Precipitation change between 4 abd 5 months ago
● Rolling Mean last 2 months
● Rolling Mean last 3 months
● Autoregressive(2)
● Autoregressive(3)
● Value_Dif
● Linear_Approx
All Features
● Rolling Mean Expanding Window
● Moving Average(1)
● Moving Average(2)
● Moving Average(3)
● Autoregressive(2)(12)
● Population Mean
● Moving Average(1)(12)
● Constant
All Features
● Month of January
● Month of Febuary
● Month of March
● Month of April
● Month of May
● Month of June
● Month of July
● Month of August
● Month of September
● Month of October
● Month of November
● Month of December
Staffing Formula
num. teams required to fix potholes = round(num. Potholes / (daily pothole fixing rate * num. Work days per month) + 0.5)
staf required =num. teams required to fix potholes * Num. people in team
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