Influence of Transmigration on Sustainable Agriculture
in Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia Haposan Saragih*, Hitoshi Okuhira*, and Shigeru Yoshida**
*The United Graduate School of Agricultural Sciences, Kagoshima University-Japan; ** Faculty of Agriculture, University of the Ryukyus-Japan
Contents • I. Introduction
• II. Methodology
• III. Result and Discussion
• Ⅳ. Conclusions and Suggestion
Land
Agricultural Production
Agricultural Labor
Population
Figure 5. Flow chart model
Agricultural production sector
Population sector
Agricultural
Non-agricultural
Land use sector
Technology levelLive quality conditionSocial condition
Agricultural labor sector
Figure 11. Population sector
Declining natural population rate
Population level
Land development attractiveness for migration multiplier
Land use sectorAgricultural production sector
Land use sectorAgricultural production sector
Increasing population inflow rate Declining population
outflow rate
Natural population growth rate
Land area feasible use ratio
Attractiveness for migration multiplier
Population growth inflow factor Level variable
(Stock)
Rate variable(Flow)
Source and sink
Sub-system
Multiplier table
Constant(Parameter)
Flow information
Figure 12. Land use sector
Maximum land area feasible use
Devastating land rate
Land area feasible use
Potential land development rate
Agricultural land area
Declining agricultural land rate
Increasing agricultural land use rate
Land area feasible development ratio
Agricultural development level attractiveness multiplier
Agricultural land development feasible acquisition multiplier
Non-agricultural land area sector
Population sectorAgricultural production sector
Population sectorNon-agricultural land area sectorAgricultural production sector
Figure 13. Agricultural production sector
Agricultural production demand multiplier
Increasing agricultural production rate
Declining agricultural production rate
Agricultural production level
Agricultural land sector
Population sector
Land productivity
Declining soil fertility multiplier
Agricultural population production rate
Effectiveness population density multiplier Agricultural
labor sector
Figure 14. Agricultural labor sector
Population sector
Agricultural production sector
Capital stock multiplier
Agricultural labor level
Increasing agricultural labor ratio Agricultural labor
productivity
Declining agricultural labor rate
Increasing agricultural labor rate
Population labor sector
Total labor
Intensity extension attractiveness multiplier
Agricultural labor ratio
Figure 6. Base run simulation
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
0 10 20 30 40 50 year
1:2:3:4:
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
5:6:
1: Population 2: Agricultural production3: Agricultural labor 4: Labor5: Agricultural land 6: Non- agricultural land
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 year
agricu
ltur
al p
rodu
ctio
n/po
pula
tion
, agr
icul
tura
lpr
oduc
tion
/agr
icul
tura
l lan
d, p
opul
atio
n/ag
ricu
ltur
alla
nd
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
popu
lation
/lan
d, n
on-a
gric
ultu
ral l
and
Population/ landAgricultural production/ agricultural landAgricultural production/ populationPopulation/ land agriculturalNon- agricultural land
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 year
agricu
ltur
al la
bor/
labo
r
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
agricu
ltur
al p
rodu
ctio
n/ag
ricu
ltur
al la
bor
Agricultural labor/ labor
Agricultural production/ agricultural labor
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
0 10 20 30 40 50 year
1:2:3:
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
4:5:
1: Population 2: Prod u c ti o n3: Agricultural labor 4: Agricultural land5: Non- agricultural land
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1 11 21 31 41 51year
2:3:
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
1:4:
2: Production 3: Agricultural labor1: Production growth rate 4: Agricultural labor growth rate
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
0 10 20 30 40 50 year
1:2:3:
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
4:5:
1: Population 2: Prod u c ti o n3: Agricultural labor 4: Agricultural land5: Non- agricultural land
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
2,000,000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 year
2:3:
- 10
- 5
0
5
10
15
20
1:4:
2: Production 3: Agricultural labor
1: Production growth rate 4: Agricultural labor growth rate
Top Related