8/9/2019 Indonesia Government Debt Profile Per May 2010 English Edition
1/80
May 2010 Edition
8/9/2019 Indonesia Government Debt Profile Per May 2010 English Edition
2/80
Table of Contents
Chapter 1
Background, Debt Policy & Management and itsObjectives, Debt Instruments, Legal Basis
13. Program Loans, 2010
14. Foreign Loans Financing 2000-2010
15. Project & Program Loans Drawing, 2005-2009
2. Background (2)3. Debt Policy & Management and its Objectives
4. Debt Instruments (1)
. ,
17. Project Loans Drawing, 2010 (chart)Chapter 3
Debt Portfolio Outstanding, Debt Maturity Profile,5. Debt Instruments (2)
6. Debt Management: Legal Basis
Chapter 2State Bud et Deficit and its Financin
Government Securities Development and ForeignLoans18. Government Debt Outstanding, 2001-2010
19. Trend of Government Debt Outstanding, 1998-
7. State Budget, fiscal year 2010
8. Fiscal deficit and State Budget Financing, 1996-2010
20. Debt Maturity Profile as of April 30th, 201021. Government Securities, December 2007 April
30th, 201022. Foreign Loans by Creditor Types, 1998-2010
. ,
2007-2010
10. Financing Development, 2005-2010
11. Debt Financing Development, 1998-2010
. ore gn oans y re or ypes, -24. Foreign Loans by Sector, 2005-201025. Foreign Loans by Sector, 2005-2010 (chart)26. Government Debt by Currency, 2001-201027. Government Debt b Currenc 2000-2010
Ministry of Finance Republikc of Indonesia
12. Realization of Government Securities, 2010 28. Foreign Loans Drawing by Financing Type, 2005-2010
8/9/2019 Indonesia Government Debt Profile Per May 2010 English Edition
3/80
Table of Contents
Chapter 4
Debt Managements Performance Debt PerformanceMeasurement and Comparison, Loan Disbursement,Government Debt Securities Re-profiling
40. Debt Service to International Reserve Ratio,1999-2009
41. Debt-to-GDP Ratio: Countries Comparison in2008 and 2003-2008
29. Debt-to-GDP Ratio, 1998-2010
30. Debt-to-GDP Ratio Countries Comparison,1998-2007
- - -
42. External Debt to GDP Ratio in 2008 and 2003-2008
43. Debt per capita in Various Countries, 2001-2007
2014
32. Maturity Profile of Tradable Government
Securities, end of 2001 and April 30th, 2010
44. Debt per capita: Countries Comparison in 2008and 2003-2008
45. Debt to revenue ratio: Countries Comparison in2008 and 2003-2008
34. Debt Swap to Reduce Debt
35. Restructurisation 2003
36. Restructurisation 2006
46. Interest payment to GDP ratio in VariousCountries, 1998-2007
37. Restructurisation 2008: interest structurerestructurisation SU-002 & SU-004
38. Foreign Loans Disbursement Performance, 1997 April 30th, 2010
Departemen Keuangan Republik Indonesia
39. External Debt Service: Countries Comparison in2008 and 2003-2008
Ministry of Finance Republikc of Indonesia
8/9/2019 Indonesia Government Debt Profile Per May 2010 English Edition
4/80
Table of Contents
Chapter 5
Costs of Borrowing Cost of Fund, Yield Curve,External Debts Costs
47. Interest to revenue and expense ratio, 2000-
56. Govt. Domestic Securities Ownership Structureby Investor Types
57. Govt. Domestic Securities Ownership share byInvestor Types
2010
48. Interest to Total Debt ratio, 2000-2010
49. Interest payment to revenue ratio in SelectedCountries, in 2008 and 2003-2008
58. Govt. Securities Ownership by foreign investor
classified by maturity
59. Spread over 5 years US Treasury Bill
50. Interest Payment Realization 2002-2010
51. Program Loans: Cost Structure
52. Cost of Fund of Government Securities, Rupiahdenominated
.
61. Spread over 30 years US Treasury Bill
Chapter 7
Rat ing, Supreme Audi t Agency Opinion, HIPICs and
53. Yield Curve Trend of Govt. Debt Securities,foreign currency denominated
Chapter 6
onc us on
62. Indonesian Credit Rating
63. Indonesian Credit Rating Development (1)
64. Indonesian Credit Rating Development (2)
. Trading Volume, Govt. Securities OwnershipStructure
54. Average Daily Trading of Rp denominated Govt.
65. Indonesian Sovereign Rating PerformanceUpgrading
66. Supreme Audit Agency Opinion onGovernments Financial Report 2008
Departemen Keuangan Republik Indonesia
55. Govt. Securities Ownership Structure by Bank
and Non Bank, as of 26 March 2010
67. GDP per capita of HIPICs and Debt-reliefCountries
68. ConclusionMinistry of Finance Republikc of Indonesia
8/9/2019 Indonesia Government Debt Profile Per May 2010 English Edition
5/80
ap erBackground, Debt Policy & Management and
, ,
Departemen Keuangan Republik IndonesiaMinistry of Finance Republikc of Indonesia
8/9/2019 Indonesia Government Debt Profile Per May 2010 English Edition
6/80
Background (1)
Debt management and policy is an integral part of fiscalpolicy which also constructs economic policy and
.
Ultimate objectives of economic management:
Reducing unemployment.
Poverty alleviation.Spur more growth in the eonomy.
Security and stability enhancement.
e s ma er a ze s a e u ge s n e c .
1Departemen Keuangan Republik IndonesiaMinistry of Finance Republikc of Indonesia
8/9/2019 Indonesia Government Debt Profile Per May 2010 English Edition
7/80
Background (2)
Deficit financing through debt has been perceived to be a standard approach in most of the countries inour modern world:
Debt is primary tool to fill fiscal gap and to refinance matured debts;
Debt refinancing will end up with new and better debt profile in term of risk and fee.
Government debt, in nominal term, has increased due to:
Legacy debts that need to be refinanced; Inevitable effect of currency and banking crises in 1997/1998:
Exchange rate depreciation;
Banking bail out and recapitalization;
Part of proceed coming from asset recovery used for debt/banking recap securities repayment.
Fiscal deficit financing is also a result of political process and of political decision made in joint by
the Government and the Parliament intended for:uppor ng sca s mu roug eve opmen ac v y n n ras ruc ure, agr cu ure, energy, an ano er n
of pump priming project;
Sustaining peoples welfare program such as PNPM, BOS, Jamkesmas, Raskin, PKH, subsidy;
Supporting real sectors activity for instance through tax incentive;
Maintaining 20% of state budget to back up education sector;
Enhancing army and defense system; Continuing bureaucratic reform.
Access to soft loans coming from multilateral donors has been restricted by:
Indonesia is no longer considered as low income country;
2
Upper limit of foreign loans can be received by an economy.
Departemen Keuangan Republik IndonesiaMinistry of Finance Republikc of Indonesia
8/9/2019 Indonesia Government Debt Profile Per May 2010 English Edition
8/80
Debt Policy & Management and its Objectives
ObjectiveIn the long run, debt policy and management are directed to minimize cost and maintain manageablelevel of risk.
Policy There is no such thing as conditionality imposed by donors;
From 2004 onward, loan repayment has been set to be larger than its disbursement;
Relying more on government securities in domestic currency and market:
Self reliance principle in fiscal deficit financing;ursu ng urt er eepen ng n omest c mar et y en arg ng potent a nvestor an vers y ng
instrument;
Help to spur efficiency in liquidity management by, for instance, issuance of money marketinstrument.
, ,strengthen Governments bargaining power in its role as a Borrower
3Departemen Keuangan Republik IndonesiaMinistry of Finance Republikc of Indonesia
8/9/2019 Indonesia Government Debt Profile Per May 2010 English Edition
9/80
Debt Instruments (1)
Government Loan consists of external and domestic debt: Ext ernal Loan
World Bank, Asian Development Bank, Islamic Development Bank and bilateral, , , . .
Program Loan:Intended for budget support and its disbursement is a function of the realization ofstated policy matrix aiming the targets set up in MDGs scheme (poverty alleviation,
, ,related with climate change and infrastructure development.
Proj ect Loan:
To support infrastructure project in transportation, energy etc and also povertyalleviation ro ect.
Domest ic Loan
Government Regulation No. 2 Year 2006 on Loan/Grant Procurement Procedure andLoan/Grant Channelin ;
Coming from state-owned enterprise, local government and local state-ownedenterprise;
To finance policy related with the effort to support local industry, infrastructure
4Departemen Keuangan Republik Indonesia
.
Ministry of Finance Republikc of Indonesia
8/9/2019 Indonesia Government Debt Profile Per May 2010 English Edition
10/80
Debt Instruments (2)
Government securities (SBN) in local and foreign currencydenominated, tradable and non-tradable, fixed and
Government Debt Securi t ies/Surat Ut ang Negara (SUN) T-Bills: short-term (up to 1 year);
.
Coupon Bond
Tradable: ORI, FR/VR bond, Global bondNon tradable: SRBI for bank reca bond issued for BankIndonesias recap and re-structurization of banking industry
Zero coupon
Government Islamic securi t ies/Sukuk (SBSN) in domest ic and f oreign
cur rency denominat ed in t he scheme of Ijarah, Musyarakah, Istisna,etc Islamic T-Bills;
5Departemen Keuangan Republik Indonesia
.
Ministry of Finance Republikc of Indonesia
8/9/2019 Indonesia Government Debt Profile Per May 2010 English Edition
11/80
Debt Management: Legal Basis
Laws and Regulations:
Law Number 19/2008 on Government Islamic Securities
aw um er on overnment ecurities
Government Regulation No. 2 Year 2006 on Loan/Grant ProcurementProcedure and Loan/Grant Channeling
Setting up, among other things, good governance principle:
Foreign debt cannot be separated from state budget and subject to
A good policy coordination (MoF, Ministry of Planning & BI) is essentialfor having sound debt management
activities in secondary market by the stock market authority
Accountability and transparency in whole range of debt management
6Departemen Keuangan Republik IndonesiaMinistry of Finance Republikc of Indonesia
8/9/2019 Indonesia Government Debt Profile Per May 2010 English Edition
12/80
State Budget, Deficit and Its
Financin
Departemen Keuangan Republik IndonesiaMinistry of Finance Republikc of Indonesia
8/9/2019 Indonesia Government Debt Profile Per May 2010 English Edition
13/80
8/9/2019 Indonesia Government Debt Profile Per May 2010 English Edition
14/80
Fiscal Deficit and State Budget Financing, 1996-2010
9
10
11
180
200
220
[ % to PDB ][ Trillion IDR ]
Since 2005, government securities have been played role as primaryinstrument of financing
87
134
5
67
8
100
120140
160government securities in 2005-2010
- - - - - - 7
23
36
57
86
99
108
21 2
9
1
0
1
0
7
1
1
14
6
30
19
38
42
20
9
17
43
25
16
44
16
40
24
35
24
14
29
50
4
.
1.2
2.4
1.3
1.7
1.1 0.5 0.9 1.3
1.62.1
1
2
3
20
40
60
(2)
(3)
(4)
(4)
(28)
(10)
(27)
(24)
(18)
(17)
(6)
(11) (
5)
(1)
(10)(15)
. . . .
(2)
(1)
-
(40)
(20)
-
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009++ 2010+++
Govt. Securities - net Loans - net Non-Debt - net Deficit (Surplus) APBN Deficit APBN, % to PDB (RHS)
Notes:
Source: MoF
8Departemen Keuangan Republik IndonesiaDepartemen Keuangan Republik Indonesia
a e u ge - use - u e gures+ State Budget (Realization) 2009++ State Budget (Revision) 2010
Ministry of Finance Republikc of Indonesia
8/9/2019 Indonesia Government Debt Profile Per May 2010 English Edition
15/80
Global Deficit and Deficit in Various Countries, 2007-2010
(% to GDP)
2007 2008 2009 2010
Global (0.7) (2.6) (8.1) (6.4)
Developed (1.0) (3.1) (9.3) (7.4)
US (1.2) (3.2) (10.6) (8.3)Japan (2.5) (6.4) (13.5) (6.7)
Euro Area (0.6) (1.9) (5.7) (6.3)
UK (2.6) (6.2) (13.0) (13.1)
Emer in Market 0.5 0.8 3.9 2.9
Latin America (0.2) - (2.7) 2.4Brazil (2.2) (1.5) (2.7) (3.0)Mexico - - (2.5) (2.5)
Emerging Asia 0.8 (1.4) (3.7) (2.6). . . .
Indonesia (1.3) (0.1) (2.4) (1.6)
CEEMA 0.6 - (5.4) (4.2)
Hungary (5.0) (3.3) (3.8) (3.5)Poland (2.0) (3.9) (5.0) (4.0)
uss a . . . .
Fiscal deficit in Indonesia is lower than other countries.
Fiscal rule stated on Law Number 17/2003 has fixed upper limit of deficit in
9Departemen Keuangan Republik IndonesiaSource: JPMorgan as of Juni 2009
the level of 3% of GDP. In consequence, additional debt to finance fiscaldeficit is also limited.
Ministry of Finance Republikc of Indonesia
8/9/2019 Indonesia Government Debt Profile Per May 2010 English Edition
16/80
8/9/2019 Indonesia Government Debt Profile Per May 2010 English Edition
17/80
Debt Financing Development, 1998-2010
[ Trillion IDR ]
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009* 2010**
Government Securities (netto) 0.0 0.0 100.0 401.6 150.1 9.0 -1.9 -3.1 6.9 22.6 36.0 57.2 85.9 99.4 107.5
Issuance, Gross 100.0 401.6 150.1 9.0 2.0 11.3 32.3 47.0 61.0 100.0 126.2 144.7 178.0
Domestic - - 100.0 401.6 150.1 9.0 2.0 11.3 23.4 22.5 42.6 86.4 86.9 97.8 136.6
Foreign Currency - - 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.0 24.5 18.5 13.6 39.3 47.0 41.4
Bonds Redemption and Buyback 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.9 14.4 25.5 24.5 25.1 42.8 40.3 45.3 70.5
ore gn nanc ng ne o - . - . . . . . . . - . - . - . - . - . - . - .
Drawing, Gross 11.9 14.4 51.0 49.6 17.8 26.2 18.9 20.4 18.4 26.8 26.1 34.1 45.0 51.2 54.0
Program Loan - - 24.9 25.2 0.8 6.4 7.2 1.8 5.1 12.3 13.6 19.6 30.1 28.6 29.4
Project Loan 11.9 14.4 26.1 24.4 17.0 19.7 11.7 18.6 13.4 14.6 12.5 14.5 20.1 28.4 41.4
Aid channeling -5.2 -5.8 -16.8
Principal Repayment 16.3 18.7 30.0 20.2 7.6 15.9 12.3 19.8 46.5 37.1 52.7 57.9 63.4 68.0 54.1
Domestic Loan Drawing, Gross 1.0
Debt financing, Total -4.4 -4.3 121.0 431.0 160.3 19.2 4.7 -2.6 -21.2 12.3 9.4 33.3 67.5 82.7 107.3
Net additional foreign loan recorded as negative since 2004
Total debt financing was negative in 2003-2004 thanks to the proceeds
11Departemen Keuangan Republik Indonesia
Ministry of Finance Republikc of Indonesia
Notes:State Budget 2004-2008 PAN/LKPP - Audited*) State Budget (Realization) 2009 **) State Budget (Revision) 2010
8/9/2019 Indonesia Government Debt Profile Per May 2010 English Edition
18/80
Realization of Government Securities Issuance2009 & 2010 (as of May, 14th 2010)
APBN APBN-P Realization
%
realization
to APBN
%
realization
to APBN-P
Redemption & Buy back 2 01 0 6 7,54 0,41 5,0 22 ,75 2 67,540,415,022,752 40,681,101,769,319 60.23% 60.23%
e ov . ecur es , , , , , , , , , , , , . .
Buyback 3,000,000,000,000 3,000,000,000,000 0.00% 0.00%
Issuance Need 2010 174,969,515,022,752 178,040,815,022,752 86,939,860,000,000 49.69% 48.83%
Government Debt Securities/GDS 71,120,000,000,000
omest c 52,570,000,000,000
- ON 34,125,000,000,000
- ZC -
- SPN 18,445,000,000,000- -
International GDS 18,550,000,000,000
Government Islamic Securities 15,819,860,000,000
SBSN Domestik 4,444,000,000,000
, , , ,
SDHI 3,342,000,000,000
SBSN Valas -
12Departemen Keuangan Republik IndonesiaMinistry of Finance Republikc of Indonesia
Notes 2010:
- Assumption for exchange rate on issuance plan 2010 refers to APBN IDR 9,200/USD
- Exchange rate of January 20, 2010 applies to the realization of International GDS IDR 9.275/USD
8/9/2019 Indonesia Government Debt Profile Per May 2010 English Edition
19/80
Program Loans, 2009-2010
(millionUSD)
APBN RevisionNo Lender ProgramName
2010
, ,
1 JICA ClimateChangeProgramLoanIII 300 300
Total 300 300
2 ADB DevelopmentPolicySupportProgramVI 200 200Cunterc clical Su ort Facilit CSF 500
Total 200 700
3 WB SeventhDevelopmentPolicyLoan 600 600FourthInfrastructureDevelopmentPolicyLoan 200 200
LocalGovernment
DAK
Support
BOSKITARefinancing2 200 164
ClimateChangeProgramLoan 200
Total 1,000 1,164
4 France ClimateChangeProgramLoanII 200 200
o a
744 744
1 WB PNPMRefinancing 744 744
Sectoral
13Departemen Keuangan Republik IndonesiaMinistry of Finance Republikc of Indonesia
Total 744 744
Total2,444 3,108
8/9/2019 Indonesia Government Debt Profile Per May 2010 English Edition
20/80
Foreign Loans Financing, 2000-2010
34.1
45.0
51.254.0
40
60
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009* 2010**
17.8
.
18.9 20.4 18.4
. .
10.2 10.36.6
0.5 0.2
0
20
riliunRupiah
]
7.6
15.912.3
19.8
46.5
37.1
28.1
10.3
26.623.9
18.4 16.8
40
20[
52.757.9
63.468.0
54.1
80
60
ForeignLoanDrawing,bruto ForeignLoanPrincipalRepayment ForeignFinancing(netto)
r on
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009* 2010**
Foreign Loan Drawing, bruto 17.82 26.15 18.89 20.36 18.43 26.84 26.11 34.07 45.01 51.24 53.98
Foreign Loan Principal Repayment (7.62) (15.88) (12.26) (19.81) (46.49) (37.11) (52.68) (57.92) (63.44) (68.03) (54.14)
Foreign Financing (netto) 10.20 10.27 6.63 0.55 (28.06) (10.27) (26.57) (23.85) (18.42) (16.79) (0.16)
14Departemen Keuangan Republik Indonesia
Notes:*) State Budget (Realization) 2009**) State Budget (Revision) 2010
8/9/2019 Indonesia Government Debt Profile Per May 2010 English Edition
21/80
Project & Program Loans Drawing, 2005-2010as of April 30th, 2010
[Trilion IDR]
2008
2010
2009
Realization as of Apr 30, 2010
INSTRUMENT 2006 2007
Nominal % to APBNto
APBN-P
1. Program Loan 13.53 19.90 30.28 28.57 24.44 29.42 5.47 22.4% 18.6%
-
on billion US$ 1.50 2.11 2.74 3.04 2.44 3.20 0.61
a. World Bank 5.50 5.66 12.91 14.65 17.44 17.56 - 0.0% 0.0%
b. A D B 5.51 8.47 9.17 5.06 2.00 6.44 4.59 229.6% 71.3%
c. Japan 0.90 3.77 4.87 6.07 3.00 2.76 0.88 29.5% 32.0%
d. France - - 2.20 2.79 2.00 1.84 - 0.0% 0.0%
e. IDB 1.83 1.79 - - - - - 0.0% 0.0%
. - - - - - - - . .
2. Project Loan 19.81 19.54 25.28 22.64 24.52 24.56 5.85 23.9% 23.8%
on billionr US$ 2.20 2.04 2.35 2.41 2.45 2.67 0.65
15Departemen Keuangan Republik IndonesiaMinistry of Finance Republikc of Indonesia
TOTAL 33.34 39.44 55.56 51.20 48.96 53.98 11.33 23.1% 21.0%
on billion US$ 3.70 4.14 5.09 5.45 4.90 5.87 1.26
8/9/2019 Indonesia Government Debt Profile Per May 2010 English Edition
22/80
8/9/2019 Indonesia Government Debt Profile Per May 2010 English Edition
23/80
Project Loan Drawing, 2010as of April 30th
70%
80%
7,000
8,000
[ Billion IDR ]
63.8%
50%
60%
5,000
6,000
27.9% 28.2% 30%
40%
3,000
4,000
14.3%11.5%
18.3%13.4%
10.9% 10%
20%
1,000
2,000
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0%
BPK
KEM.
DAGRI
KEM.
HAN
KEM.
KEU
KEM.
TAN
KEM.
ESDM
KEM.
HUB
KEM.
DIKNAS
KEM.
KES
KEM.
AG
KEM.
HUT
KEM.
KP
KEM.
PU
KEM.
LH
KEM.
PP
KEM.
PAN
BPS
/BAPPENAS
BPN
.KOMINFO
POLRI
LKN
KEM.
PDT
BKKBN
LIPI
BAKORSPN
BKN
BPKP
KEM.
DAG
KPK
BAKORPB
KORSTANAL
17Kementerian Keuangan Republik Indonesia
PP
KE B
Budget Realization %(RHS)
8/9/2019 Indonesia Government Debt Profile Per May 2010 English Edition
24/80
Debt Portfolio Outstanding, Debt
Maturit Profile Government SecuritiesDevelopment and Foreign Loans
Departemen Keuangan Republik IndonesiaMinistry of Finance Republikc of Indonesia
8/9/2019 Indonesia Government Debt Profile Per May 2010 English Edition
25/80
Government Debt Outstanding, 2000-2010
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 + 2009 ++ Apr'10 +++
a. Loan (on billion US$) 58.90 63.74 68.91 68.59 63.09 62.02 62.25 66.69 65.02 63.54Bilateral *) 35.16 40.37 46.19 46.48 42.16 41.07 41.03 44.28 41.27 38.76
Multilateral **) 20.68 20.61 19.98 19.48 18.78 18.84 19.05 20.34 21.53 21.64
*** . . . . . . . . . .
Suppliers ***) 0.48 0.39 0.37 0.29 0.17 0.11 0.08 0.09 0.07 0.06
Others ***) 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 - - - - -
b. Govt. Securities (on billionUS$) 63.52 73.30 76.64 71.29 70.51 82.34 85.26 82.78 104.20 112.67foreign currency denominated - - - 1.00 3.50 5.50 7.00 11.20 15.23 17.22
domestic currency denominated 63.52 73.30 76.64 70.29 67.01 76.84 78.26 71.58 88.97 95.45
Central Government Debt, Total
(on billion US$)122.42 137.04 145.55 139.88 133.60 144.36 147.51 149.47 169.22 176.21
Central Government Debt, Total 1,273.18 1,225.15 1,232.04 1,299.50 1,313.29 1,302.16 1,389.41 1,636.74 1,590.66 1,588.02(on billion IDR)
includes SBN domestic denominated
(on trilion IDR)660.65 655.31 648.75 653.03 658.67 693.12 737.13 783.86 836.31 860.22
Exchange rate (IDR/US$1) 10,400 8,940 8,465 9,290 9,830 9,020 9,419 10,950 9,400 9,012
GDP (on billion IDR) 1,646.32 1,821.83 2,013.68 2,295.83 2,774.28 3,339.48 3,949.32 4,954.03 5,613.44 6,253.79
Debt Ratio to GDP 77% 67% 61% 57% 47% 39% 35% 33% 28% 25%
Notes:+ preliminary figure++ very preliminary figure
18Departemen Keuangan Republik Indonesia
+++ as of April 2010* Includes semi commercial
** Some figures are semi commercial
*** Includes commercialMinistry of Finance Republikc of Indonesia
8/9/2019 Indonesia Government Debt Profile Per May 2010 English Edition
26/80
Trend of Government Debt Outstanding, 1998-2010
611 573
1,400
1,600
[ trillion IDR]
Government securities issuance more importantly indomestic market is aimed to refinance maturing debt,balance foreign loan and strengthen domestic financial
583 613 570 583637 620 559
586
800
1,000
1,200
502
652 661 655 649 662 693743 803
906 9791,015
453
200
400
600
-
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008+ 2009++ Apr'10+++Loan Government Securities
100
[ %]
ear + ++ pr +++
Loan 82% 47% 47% 48% 47% 47% 49% 47% 43% 42% 45% 38% 36%
Govt. Securities 18% 53% 53% 52% 53% 53% 51% 53% 57% 58% 55% 62% 64%
Central Govt. Debt, total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
19Departemen Keuangan Republik Indonesia
Catatan:
+ preliminary figure
++ very preliminary figure
+++ as ofApril 30th, 2010
In most of the cases, outstanding of foreign loanincreases when there is domestic exchange rate
depreciation Ministry of Finance Republikc of Indonesia
8/9/2019 Indonesia Government Debt Profile Per May 2010 English Edition
27/80
Debt Maturity Profile as of April 30, 2010
3
120
140
[Triliun Rupiah]
Govert. obligationissued for bankrecap (BI/SRBI-001)
44
43
4747
45 3331
80
100
54 62 5057 55 61
12
36
40 35
26
21
1613
11 4 1
140
60
24
38 39
1725 21 18 23 15 20 20 14
2029
9
8
54 4 2 1 1 1
-
20
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
-2055
20
40
Pinjaman Luar Negeri Surat Berharga Negara
Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Loan 60% 45% 41% 49% 45% 48% 51% 47% 42% 37% 34% 61% 45% 44% 42%
Govt. Securities 40% 55% 59% 51% 55% 52% 49% 53% 58% 63% 66% 39% 55% 56% 58%
20Departemen Keuangan Republik IndonesiaMinistry of Finance Republikc of Indonesia
Year 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040
Loan 32% 79% 35% 25% 100% 18% 100% 100% 2% 100% 8% 100% 4% 2% 100% 100%
Govt. Securities 68% 21% 65% 75% 0% 82% 0% 0% 98% 0% 92% 0% 96% 98% 0% 0%
8/9/2019 Indonesia Government Debt Profile Per May 2010 English Edition
28/80
8/9/2019 Indonesia Government Debt Profile Per May 2010 English Edition
29/80
Foreign Loans by Creditor Types, 1998-2010
on
Nmnl % Total
2008
Apr 30 - 2010
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 20092001NEGARA 1998 1999 2000
JAPAN 22.03 26.00 24.16 21.88 24.97 28.38 28.64 25.58 24.47 24.63 29.61 27.61 26.85 42.3%
ADB 6.13 7.21 7.67 8.04 8.65 8.77 9.04 9.16 9.41 10.18 10.87 10.89 11.14 17.5%
11.32 12.09 12.42 12.17 11.53 10.67 9.90 9.11 8.74 8.37 8.96 10.10 9.90 15.6%
Others*) 16.91 16.42 16.85 16.82 18.58 21.09 21.01 19.25 19.40 19.07 17.24 16.43 15.64 24.6%
TOTAL**) 56.39 61.73 61.10 58.90 63.74 68.91 68.59 63.09 62.02 62.25 66.69 65.02 63.54
22Departemen Keuangan Republik Indonesia
otes:*) Including outstanding of other bilateral & multilateral donors**) Government securities excluded
Ministry of Finance Republikc of Indonesia
8/9/2019 Indonesia Government Debt Profile Per May 2010 English Edition
30/80
Foreign Loans by Creditor Types, 2000-2010
29% 29% 31% 31% 31% 31% 31% 26% 25%25%90%
100%
14% 14% 13% 13% 15% 15% 16%16% 17% 18%
60%70%
21% 18% 15% 14% 14% 14% 13%16% 16%
30%
40%
50%
37% 39% 41% 42% 40% 40% 40%45% 42% 42%
0
10%
20%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010*)
Lain-Lain ADB World Bank Jepang
23Departemen Keuangan Republik Indonesia
Notes:
*) as of April 30th, 2010
Multilateral donor (WB and ABD) and Japan has been acting
in providing soft loan with long maturity and low costMinistry of Finance Republikc of Indonesia
8/9/2019 Indonesia Government Debt Profile Per May 2010 English Edition
31/80
Foreign Loans by Sector, 2005-2010
[ Million USD ]
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Farm, Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries 1,846 1,755 1,641 1,615 1,784 1,753
Mining and Quarrying 424 623 662 804 776 764
Processing industry 2,593 2,387 2,415 2,659 2,291 2,160
Electricity, Gas and Water supply 7,232 6,607 6,157 6,838 5,473 5,256
ons ruc on , , , , , ,
Trade, Hotel and Restaurant 1,158 1,036 955 960 821 790
Transportation and Communication 3,477 3,144 2,897 2,723 2,368 2,271
Financial Leasin and Financial services 6 593 7 103 7 913 8 768 8 723 8 946
Services 13,274 13,509 13,730 15,252 15,463 15,203
Others sector 15,827 15,580 15,833 15,926 15,072 14,573
, , , , , ,
Source: External Debt Statistics of Indonesia, reprocessed
24Departemen Keuangan Republik Indonesia
Notes:
as of April 30, 2010
8/9/2019 Indonesia Government Debt Profile Per May 2010 English Edition
32/80
Foreign Loans by Sector, 2005-2010 (chart)
14 000
15,000
16,000
[MillionUSD]
11,000
12,000
13,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
,
3,000
4,000
5,000
,
1,000
2,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Farm,Agriculture,ForestryandFisheries MiningandQuarrying Processingindustry Electricity,GasandWatersupply
Construction Trade,HotelandRestaurant TransportationandCommunication Financial,LeasingandFinancialservices
Services Otherssector
25Departemen Keuangan Republik Indonesia
8/9/2019 Indonesia Government Debt Profile Per May 2010 English Edition
33/80
Government Debt by Currency, 2001-2010
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010***
On Original Currencies
IDR*) 660.7 655.3 648.7 653.0 658.7 693.1 737.1 783.9 836.3 860.2
USD**) 28.0 27.9 24.4 24.2 26.4 27.5 28.4 32.8 37.1 39.3
JPY**) 2,751.2 2,855.5 3,242.8 3,137.4 3,184.4 3,066.0 2,941.9 2,820.5 2,713.8 2,682.0EUR**) 8.0 8.2 8.4 8.0 8.1 7.8 7.2 6.7 6.0 5.9
-------------------------- --------------------------
Ekuivalen on billion US$
IDR 63.5 73.3 76.6 70.3 67.0 76.8 78.3 71.6 89.0 95.5
USD 28.0 27.9 24.4 24.2 26.4 27.5 28.4 32.8 37.1 39.3
JPY 21.0 24.0 30.3 30.5 27.0 25.8 25.9 31.2 29.4 28.5
EUR 7.1 8.6 10.5 10.9 9.6 10.2 10.5 9.5 8.6 7.8
Others Currencies 2.7 3.2 3.7 3.9 3.5 4.0 4.4 4.4 5.2 5.2
. . . . . . . . . .
Exchange rate IDR/US$1 10,400.00 8,940.00 8,465.00 9,290.00 9,830.00 9,020.00 9,419.00 10,950.00 9,400.00 9,012.00
Exchange rate JPY/US$1 131.00 118.75 107.11 102.74 117.83 119.01 113.39 90.33 92.42 94.13
Exchan e rate EUR/US$1 1.12 0.95 0.79 0.73 0.84 0.76 0.68 0.71 0.70 0.76
26Departemen Keuangan Republik Indonesia
Notes:
Nominal on billion*) Nominal IDR on Trilion Rupiah, **) Nominal on billion, ***) as of April 30th ,2010Ministry of Finance Republikc of Indonesia
8/9/2019 Indonesia Government Debt Profile Per May 2010 English Edition
34/80
Government Debt by Currency, 2000-2010
18% 17% 18% 17% 16%
6% 6% 6% 7% 8% 7% 7% 7% 6% 5% 4%90%
100%
21% 23% 20%17% 17% 20%
19% 19%22%
22% 22%
22%
60%
70%
40%
50%
53% 52% 53% 53% 50% 50% 53% 53% 48%53% 54%
10%
20%
30%
0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010*)
Others EUR JPY USD IDR
27Departemen Keuangan Republik Indonesia
Notes:*) as of April 30th, 2010
- , ,government debt between 2008 and 2009 albeit a slight decrease recordedin 2008 and 2009 in the dawning of global financial crisis that was also
marked with Rupiah depreciation Ministry of Finance Republikc of Indonesia
8/9/2019 Indonesia Government Debt Profile Per May 2010 English Edition
35/80
Foreign Loans Drawing by Financing Type, 2005-2010
60%
70%
80%
30
35
40
38.9
5
1
4
.28
64
.
56
30%
40%
50%
15
20
25
12.
21
13.
53
19.
90
30.
28
28.
57
29.
42
19.
8
19.
52
22.
24
0%
10%
20%
5
10
2005* 2006* 2007* 2008* 2009** 2010***
ProgramLoan ProjectLoan %ProgramLoan %ProjectLoan[Trillion IDR]
Loans Instruments 2005* % 2006* % 2007* % 2008* % 2009** % 2010*** %
Program Loan 12.21 24% 13.53 41% 19.90 50% 30.28 55% 28.57 56% 29.42 55%
Project Loan 38.95 76% 19.81 59% 19.54 50% 25.28 45% 22.64 44% 24.56 45%
TOTAL 51.16 33.34 39.44 55.56 51.20 53.98
28Departemen Keuangan Republik Indonesia
Notes:*) Realization figures**) Ceiling figure in 2009
***) APBN-P 2010 figuresMinistry of Finance Republikc of Indonesia
8/9/2019 Indonesia Government Debt Profile Per May 2010 English Edition
36/80
Chapter 4e anagemen s er ormance e er ormance
Measurement and Comparison, Loan Disbursement,
-
Departemen Keuangan Republik IndonesiaMinistry of Finance Republikc of Indonesia
8/9/2019 Indonesia Government Debt Profile Per May 2010 English Edition
37/80
Debt to GDP Ratio, 2000-2010
85%89%
100%
120%
6,000
7,000[ % ]
58%
77%
67%
61% 57%
47%60%
80%
3,000
4,000
,
35% 33%28%
25%
20%
40%
1,000
2,000
0%0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009*Apr'10**
Debt Outstanding GDP Debt ratio to GDP (RHS)
[ Trillion IDR ]
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009* A r'10**
Notes:*
Additional debt has helped to spur more growth in the economy. As
453 438 583 613 570 583 637 620 559 586 730 611 573100 502 652 661 655 649 662 693 743 803 906 979 1,015
553 940 1,234 1,273 1,225 1,232 1,300 1,313 1,302 1,389 1,637 1,591 1,588
LoanGovt. Secutities
Total
29Departemen Keuangan Republik IndonesiaDepartemen Keuangan Republik IndonesiaDepartemen Keuangan Republik IndonesiaSource: MoF and BPS
**) very preliminary as of April 30th, 2010a result, debt-to-GDP ratio has significantly decreases from 57% at
the end of 2007 to around 32% in 2009. The ratio in 2009 is far
better than in the pre-crisis period of the late 1990s. Ministry of Finance Republikc of Indonesia
8/9/2019 Indonesia Government Debt Profile Per May 2010 English Edition
38/80
Debt to GDP Ratio Countries Comparison, 1998-2007
Indonesia is one of the top performers in the non investment grade peer group (Argentina,the Philippines and Turkey) and this still holds even if one compares it with advancedcountries such as US, UK, Japan and Italy.
180
140
100
20
60
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Argentina Jepang Indonesia Filipina Turki Italia Inggris Amerika Serikat
30Departemen Keuangan Republik IndonesiaSource: Economist Int ell igence Unit
Ministry of Finance Republikc of Indonesia
8/9/2019 Indonesia Government Debt Profile Per May 2010 English Edition
39/80
Debt to GDP Ratio in Various Countries, 2008-2014
2008f 2009f 2010f 2014f
Brazil 65.4 64.7 62.9 54.1
. . . .
India 80.6 82.7 82.9 71.6Japan 202.5 217 225.1 222.3
United Kingdom 50.4 61 68.7 76.2
United States 68.7 81.2 90.2 99.5
G - 20 65.5 72.5 76.7 76.8
Advanced G - 20 Countries 83.2 93.2 99.8 103.5
Emerging Market G - 20 Countries 35.7 37.6 37.8 32
ource : nternat ona onetary un , e tate o u c nances; ut oo an e um- erm o c es ter t e
Crisis
Indonesia is in the list of the Emerging Market G-20 countries
31Departemen Keuangan Republik Indonesia
Taking a look at the additional debt in developed economies, theyaccumulate more debt than their developing counterpart
Ministry of Finance Republikc of Indonesia
Maturity Profile of Tradable Government Securities
8/9/2019 Indonesia Government Debt Profile Per May 2010 English Edition
40/80
Maturity Profile of Tradable Government Securities,in the end of 2001 and April 30th, 2010
[Trilion IDR]
nce , e o as con uc e repro ng s ra egy o mprove governmen esecuritiess maturity profile, hence reducing refinancing risk
70
75
as of April 30, 2010 End of Year
50
55
60
65
35
40
45
20
25
30
-
5
10
32Departemen Keuangan Republik Indonesia
Notes:
Government Securities/SBN consist of Government Debt Securities/SUN (2001 & 2009), and Government Islamic Securities/Sukuk (2009)Ministry of Finance Republikc of Indonesia
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2035 2037 2038
D bt S it hi d B b k
8/9/2019 Indonesia Government Debt Profile Per May 2010 English Edition
41/80
Debt Switching and Buyback
Debt switching: strategy to reduce refinancing risk
YearAuction
Frequency
Series
to be Switched
Tenor of Series
to be Switched
Offered
Tenor
Volume of Bid
Received
(billion IDR)
Volume of Bid
Accepted
(billion IDR)
2005 1 x 9 series < 1 year to 4 years 15 years 7,721 5,673
2006 12 x 7 to 21 series < 1 year to 5 years 5 to 19 years 54,177 31,179
2007 9 x 12 to 21 series < 1 year to 6 years 11 to 20 years 30,681 15,782
2008 2 x 21 to 31 series < 1 year to 4 years 14 to 15 years 7,490 4,571
2009 6 x 24 to 28 series < 1 year to 4 years 11 to 17 years 8,663 2,938
as of May 14th, 2010 1 x 19 series < 1 year to 3 years 20 years 3,273 2,296
Total 112,005 62,439
Buyback: strategy to stabilize market and to reduce debt outstanding
YearAuction
Frequency
Series
to be Buy Back
Tenor of Series
to be Buy Back
Volume of Buy
Back
Accepted
(billion IDR)
2003 2 x 4 to 7 series 1 year to 3 years 8,127
x ser es years o years ,
2005 4 x 2 to 8 series < 1 year to 4 years 5,158
2007 2 x 11 to 13 series < 1 year to 5 years 2,859
2008 3 x 4 to 8 series < 1 year to 19 years 2,375
33Departemen Keuangan Republik IndonesiaMinistry of Finance Republikc of Indonesia
,
as of May 14th, 2010 - - - - - -
Total 28,999
D bt S t R d D bt
8/9/2019 Indonesia Government Debt Profile Per May 2010 English Edition
42/80
Debt Swap to Reduce Debt
Debt swap agreement with several donors has successfully reduced debt outstanding
Title1 2 3 4 5 6
Country Debt SwapProject Cancelation
Amount Commitment Realization
Debt Swap I Learning Resources Centres EUR 12.8 EUR 25.6 EUR 25.6
Debt Swap II Junior Education in Eastern Region of Indonesia EUR 11.5 EUR 23.0 EUR 0.0
Debt Swap IIIa Financial Assistance for Environmental EUR 6.3 EUR 12.5 EUR 3.2
Germany
nves emen s o cro an ma n erpr ses
Debt Swap IIIb Strengthening the Development of National
Parks in Fragile Ecosystem
EUR 6.3 EUR 12.5 EUR 0.0
Earthquake Area in Yogyakarta and Central Java
. . .
Debt Swap V Debt2Health EUR 25.0 EUR 50.0 EUR 10.0
. . .
USD 24.2 USD 24.2 USD 16.6
USA Debt Development Swap Tropical Forest Conservation Act/TFCA USD 20.0 USD 22.0 USD 2.1
34Departemen Keuangan Republik IndonesiaMinistry of Finance Republikc of Indonesia
EUR 149.3 EUR 42.7
USD 46.2 USD 18.7TOTAL
R t t i 2003
8/9/2019 Indonesia Government Debt Profile Per May 2010 English Edition
43/80
Restructuring 2003
Agreement between the Government and Bank Indonesia on August 1,2003 on the settlement of liquidity support to banking industry (BLBI)and financial relationshi between the Government and Bank Indonesia
Agreed BLBI amounting Rp 144.536.094.294.530 SU-001 Rp 80.000.000.000.000
SU-003 Rp 64.536.094.294.530
Both series reissued with new single series SRBI-01/MK/2003 Rp144.536.094.294.530 starting 1st August 2003.
Repayment arranged under burden sharing scheme: In the case where BIs monetary liabilities are greater than 10%, the
Government will use its surplus accrued to repay remaining principal ofSRBI-01
,
monetary liabilities filled up to that 3% figure. Interest Rate of SRBI-01/MK/2003: 0,1% per annual (fixed, semi
annual)
Departemen Keuangan Republik Indonesia 35Ministry of Finance Republikc of Indonesia
R t t i 2006
8/9/2019 Indonesia Government Debt Profile Per May 2010 English Edition
44/80
Restructuring 2006
SU-002/MK/1998: Date of issuance: October 23, 1998;
Pre-restructuring SU-002/MK/1998:
Nominal: Rp20.000.000.000.000,-
Post-restructuring
. . . . ,-
Principal is indexed to inflation, on a yearlybasis.
After indexation, of 3% interest payment asmade on semi-annual basis calculated fromprincipal.
1% interest will be repaid in semi-annual
basis.
Principal was amortized semi-annually,starting from 1st April 2025 (no indexation to
inflation a lies . Principal amortization is in semi-annual basis
starting from 1st October 2003 to 1 April 2018.
SU-004/MK/1999: Date of issuance : Ma 28, 1999;
SU-004/MK/1999:
Nominal: Rp53.779.500.000.000,-
3% interest will be re aid in semi-annual Nominal: Rp53.779.500.000.000,-
Principal is indexed to inflation, on a yearlybasis.
After indexation, of 3% interest payment asmade on semi-annual basis calculated from
basis.
Principal was amortized semi-annually,
starting from 1st December 2025 (no
indexation to inflation applied).
.
Principal amortization is in semi-annual basisstarting from 1st June 2003 to 1st December2018.
-
SU-007/MK/2007 Nominal: 54.862.150.308.421
Non tradable, 0.1% interest per annum
Departemen Keuangan Republik Indonesia
SU-004 IDR54.862.150.308.421: Interest arrear: Rp16.929.470.080.766
Indexed to inflation: Rp37.932.680.227.655 36
Principal was installed exponentially by a cash
or tradable SUN until 2025.
Ministry of Finance Republikc of Indonesia
Restructuring 2008: Restructuring for Interest Rate
8/9/2019 Indonesia Government Debt Profile Per May 2010 English Edition
45/80
g gof SU-002 & SU-004
Based on Its report on Central Govt Expenditure dated October 16-28, 2008,Working Committee agreed among others that SU-002 and SU-004 will berestructured in 2009 with interest rate applied was 0.1% or with benchmarkand terms condition of SRBI-01.
Ministry of Finance and BI agreed that interest rate of both SU-002 and SU-004will be reduced to 0.1% from 1% and 3% respectively, starting on 1st January
.
SU and SRBI Positionas of April 30th, 2010
Seri Terbit Jatuh Tempo Nominal
SU-002/MK/1998 23-Oct-98 2010 - 2025 19.717.357.592.610,00
SU-004/MK/1999 28-May-99 2010 - 2025 53.779.500.000.000,00
SRBI-01/MK/2003 07-Aug-03 01-Aug-33 126.697.947.827.429,00
SU-007/MK/2007 01-Jan-06 2007 - 2025 50.714.996.142.486,00
Departemen Keuangan Republik Indonesia 37
Amortization of SU-007 was conducted since 2007
Amortization of SU-002 and SU-004 will be conducted in 2010 Ministry of Finance Republikc of Indonesia
250.909.801.562.525,00TOTAL
Foreign Loans Disbursement Performance,
8/9/2019 Indonesia Government Debt Profile Per May 2010 English Edition
46/80
1997 April 30th, 2010
Undisbursed loans has lessened showing efficiency improvement of the use of the proceeds of foreignloan
Disbursement performance increases as project readiness criteria has been set up and correctly applied.In addition, project monitoring and evaluation has been installed in foreign loan management
200
250
[MiliarUSD]
50
100
150
0
Net
Commitment Disbursement Undisbursed [BillionUSD]
Tahun 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
NetCommitment 171.8 178.4 166.4 157.3 166.2 178.4 172.2 164.5 170.7 181.7 201.1 205.5 202.5
38Departemen Keuangan Republik IndonesiaMinistry of Finance Republikc of Indonesia
Disbursement 112.3 125.3 124.5 123.6 137.7 153.5 161.6 154.6 161.4 172.1 189.6 194.7 191.6
Undisbursed 59.5 53.1 42.0 33.7 28.5 24.8 10.6 9.9 9.3 9.7 11.6 10.8 10.9
External Debt Service: Countries Comparison in 2008
8/9/2019 Indonesia Government Debt Profile Per May 2010 English Edition
47/80
pand 2003-2008
Indonesia has shown a moderate level of external debt service to exportratio and was on the third rank in reducing the ratio (in 2003-2008) whileBrazil and Colombia were on the first and second.
Malaysia
xterna e t erv ce, 2008
(In percent of exports)
Brazil
x erna e erv ce, c anges -
(in percent of exports)
Thailand
South Africa
Poland
Colombia
Indonesia
Thailand
Chile
Indonesia
India
e
Turkey
Poland
Philippines
Colombia
Brazil
a ays a
South Africa
Philippines
39
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
ur ey
-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10
n a
Departemen Keuangan Republik IndonesiaMinistry of Finance Republikc of Indonesia
Debt Service to International Reserve Ratio 1999 2010
8/9/2019 Indonesia Government Debt Profile Per May 2010 English Edition
48/80
Debt Service to International Reserve Ratio, 1999-2010
21.6% 21.7%20.6%
20
25%
15.2%
13.8% 13.4%
18.1% 18.0%16.8%
17.9%
14.1%15%
11.5%
10%
5%
0%1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008* 2009** 2010***
40Departemen Keuangan Republik Indonesia
Since 2004, debt service to international reserve ratio hasbeen continuing to decrease. This concern with liquidity
improvement and ability to endure (external) shock
Notes:
* Preliminary** Very preliminary
Ministry of Finance Republikc of Indonesia
Debt-to-GDP Ratio: Countries Comparison
8/9/2019 Indonesia Government Debt Profile Per May 2010 English Edition
49/80
in 2008 and 2003-2008
Again, Indonesia is one of the top performers in reducing the level of debtto GDP ratio both in the group developing and developed economies
Turki Turki
u c e ,(in percent of GDP)
u c e , c an es -(in percent of GDP)
Jepang
Kolombia
Malaysia
Polandia
Jepang
Kolombia
Malaysia
Polandia
Chile
Filipina
India
Indonesia
Inggr s
Filipina
India
Indonesia
Inggris
Afrika Selatan
Amerika Serikat
Australia
Brasil
Afrika Selatan
Amerika Serikat
AustraliaBrasil
41Departemen Keuangan Republik IndonesiaMinistry of Finance Republikc of Indonesia
0 100 20030 10 10 30 50
External Debt to GDP Ratio in 2008 and 2003-2008
8/9/2019 Indonesia Government Debt Profile Per May 2010 English Edition
50/80
External Debt to GDP Ratio in 2008 and 2003 2008
A moderate and manageable level of external debt to GDP ratio is also anothersignificant achievement resulted from an effective debt management andpolicy
Brazil
External Debt, 2008
(In percent of GDP)
Philippines
External Debt, changes 2003-08
(In percent of GDP)
India
Colombia
Thailand
Indonesia
Brazil
Colombia
aaysa
South Africa
Indonesia
aaysa
Chile
Thailand
Turkey
Chile
Poland
India
Poland
South Africa
42
10 20 30 40 50 60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10
Departemen Keuangan Republik IndonesiaMinistry of Finance Republikc of Indonesia
Debt per Capita in Various Countries, 2001-2007
8/9/2019 Indonesia Government Debt Profile Per May 2010 English Edition
51/80
Debt per Capita in Various Countries, 2001 2007
Debt per capita in China and India is certainly much lower than Indonesia due to theirdemographic factor
Brazil, a rating-investment-grade country, shows a higher debt per capita than Indonesiawhich is in fact a non-investment- rade countr
40,000
45,000
50,000
4,000
4,500
5,000
30,000
35,000
3,000
3,500
15,000
20,000
,
1,500
2,000
,
-
5,000
10,000
-
500
1,000
43Departemen Keuangan Republik IndonesiaSource: Economist Int ell igence Unit
Ministry of Finance Republikc of Indonesia
Brazil Indonesia Filipina Turki Cina India Italia [RHS]
Debt per capita: Countries Comparisoni 2008 d 2003 2008
8/9/2019 Indonesia Government Debt Profile Per May 2010 English Edition
52/80
in 2008 and 2003-2008
Indonesian debt per capita is among the lowest and it is considered tofluctuate insignificantly
Public Debt er Ca ita Chan es 2003-2010
Thailand
TurkiThailand
Turki
(in US$)
(in US$)
England
Kolombia
Malaysia
Po an a
EnglandKolombiaMalaysia
o an a
Brasil
Chile
FilipinaIndia
BrasilChile
FilipinaIndia
South AfricaUSA
Australia
South AfricaUSA
Australia
44Departemen Keuangan Republik IndonesiaMinistry of Finance Republikc of Indonesia
Debt to Revenue Ratio: Countries Comparisoni 2008 d 2003 2008
8/9/2019 Indonesia Government Debt Profile Per May 2010 English Edition
53/80
in 2008 and 2003-2008
Debt to revenue ratio in Indonesia has been stabilized to amoderate level and recorded the fastest decrease
ChileAustralia
u c e t, 2008
(In percent of revenues)
IndonesiaPhilippine
u c e , c anges -
(In percent of revenues)
South AfricaColombia
Poland
UK
TurkeyIndia
Colombia
Southa anBrazil
IndonesiaMalaysia
BrazilThailandMalaysiaAustralia
USPhilippinesIndia
Japan
PolandUSUK
Japan
45
10 110 210 310 410 510 610 -190 -140 -90 -40 10 60
Departemen Keuangan Republik IndonesiaMinistry of Finance Republikc of Indonesia
Interest Payment to GDP Ratio in Various Countries,1998 2007
8/9/2019 Indonesia Government Debt Profile Per May 2010 English Edition
54/80
1998-2007
Interest payment to GDP ratio of Indonesia is better than countries like Turkey and ThePhilippines and rating-investment-grade countries such as Brazil and Italy.
18
14
16
10
12
4
6
8
0
2
46Departemen Keuangan Republik IndonesiaSumber: Economist Int ell igence Unit
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Japan Indonesia Philippines Turkey Italy United Kingdom United States
Ministry of Finance Republikc of Indonesia
8/9/2019 Indonesia Government Debt Profile Per May 2010 English Edition
55/80
Chapter 5Costs of Borrowing Cost of Fund, Yield Curve,
Departemen Keuangan Republik IndonesiaMinistry of Finance Republikc of Indonesia
Interest To Revenue and Expense Ratio, 2000-2009
8/9/2019 Indonesia Government Debt Profile Per May 2010 English Edition
56/80
p ,
%29.0
%
29.4
%
.5%
27.2
%25%
30%
Cost of fund is continuing to be
24.
19.2%
.5%
22.6
2
17.4
%
%
15%
20% more e c en
15
13.2
%
12.4
%
11.3
%
9.0
%10.8
%
10.6
%14.
12.8
%
11.9
%
10.5
%
9.0
%9.8
%
9.4
%
5%
10%
0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009* 2010**
as a share of revenue as a share of expense
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009* 2010**Revenue 205,335 300,600 298,527 340,928 403,105 493,919 636,153 706,108 981,609 868,946 992,399
Expense 221,467 341,563 322,180 376,505 427,177 509,633 667,129 757,650 985,731 956,379 1,126,147
Debt Service Payment 50,068 87,142 87,667 65,351 62,486 65,200 79,083 79,806 88,430 93,802 105,650
47Departemen Keuangan Republik Indonesia
Notes:
Realization figures 2000-2008 based on APBN 2000-2008 PAN/LKPP-Audited
* realization figures based on APBN (realization) 2009
** projection figures based on APBN (revision) 2010 Ministry of Finance Republikc of Indonesia
Interest to Total Debt 2000-2010
8/9/2019 Indonesia Government Debt Profile Per May 2010 English Edition
57/80
16%
18%
1,600
1,800
[ TrillionIDR
] [ Procentage
]
10%
12%
14%
1,000
1,200
1,400
4.06%
6.84% 7.16%
5.30%4.81% 4.96%
6.07% 5.74% 5.40%5.90%
6.65%
6%
8%
600
800
0%
2%
200
TotalDebt Interest
Debt
Payment Rasio
(RHS)
[Trillion IDR]
2000 2001 2001 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Apr 2010
48Kementerian Keuangan Republik Indonesia
Total Debt 1,234.28 1,273.18 1,225.15 1,232.04 1,299.50 1,313.29 1,302.16 1,389.41 1,636.74 1,590.66 1,588.02
Interest Debt Payment 50.07 87.14 87.67 65.35 62.49 65.20 79.08 79.81 88.34 93.80 105.65
Interest Payment To Revenue Ratio In Selected Countries,In 2008 and 2003-2008
8/9/2019 Indonesia Government Debt Profile Per May 2010 English Edition
58/80
In 2008 and 2003 2008
Public Debt Interest Pa ment, 2008 Public Debt Interest Pa ment, chan es 2003-08
Interest payment to revenue ratio of Indonesia is on moderate level while Turkey and thePhilippines have in a significant way brought down the ratio even further
ChileAustralia
(In percent of revenues)
Turkey
Philippines
(In percent of revenues)
Japan
Malaysia
UK
o an Indonesia
India
Brazil
South Africa
Colombia
US
Indonesia
e
Malaysia
Colombia
Poland
Turkey
IndiaPhilippines
AustraliaUS
UK
49
0 10 20 30 -35 -25 -15 -5 5
Source: IMFDepartemen Keuangan Republik IndonesiaMinistry of Finance Republikc of Indonesia
Interest Payment Realization 2002-2010
8/9/2019 Indonesia Government Debt Profile Per May 2010 English Edition
59/80
70%
80%
90%
100%
71% 71% 69% 68% 68%
40%
50%
60%
29% 29%37% 35% 31% 32% 32% 32% 32%
0%
10%
20%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010*InterestPaymentofDomesticLoan InterestPaymentofExternalLoan
[trilionIDR]
*
Nml % Nml % Nml % Nml % Nml % Nml % Nml % Nml % Nml %
87.70 100.00 65.40 100.00 62.40 100.00 65.20 100.00 79.10 100.00 79.80 100.00 88.60 100.00 101.60 100.00 105.65 100.00
a. InterestPaymentof
DomesticLoan
62.30 71.04 46.40 70.95 39.60 63.46 42.60 65.34 54.90 69.41 54.10 67.79 59.90 67.61 69.30 68.21 71.9 68.01
b. InterestPaymentof 25.40 28.96 19.00 29.05 22.80 36.54 22.60 34.66 24.20 30.59 25.70 32.21 28.70 32.39 32.30 31.79 33.8 31.99
LoanInterest
Payment
50Departemen Keuangan Republik Indonesia
x erna oan
Notes: figures based on APBN (revision) 2010
Program Loans: Cost Structure
8/9/2019 Indonesia Government Debt Profile Per May 2010 English Edition
60/80
Tenor Interest Fee*
Asian Development Bank
+
Creditor/ ProgramTrem & Condition
2. Capital Market Development Cluster 15.0 LIBOR + 0.2% 0.15%
World Bank
1. Develo ment Polic Loan 6 24.5 LIBOR + 0.05% 0.25%
2. Biaya Operasional Sekolah (BOSKITA) 25.0 LIBOR + 0.05% 0.25%
3. Infrastructure Development Policy Loan 3 24.5 LIBOR + 0.05% 0.25%
Japan (JBIC/JICA)1. Climate Change Program 15.0 0.15% -
2. Economic Stimulus and Budget Support Loan 15.0 JPY LIBOR -
3. Infrastructure Reform Sector Development 15.0 0.70% -
4. Development Program Loan 5 15.0 0.70% -
Notes:
France1. Climate Change Program 15.0 EURIBOR - 0.3% -
51Departemen Keuangan Republik Indonesia
* ADB loans normally impose commitment fee while World Bank requires so called front-end fee** Loan proceeds not to directly finance the climate change project
Ministry of Finance Republikc of Indonesia
Yield Curve of Domestic Government Securities
8/9/2019 Indonesia Government Debt Profile Per May 2010 English Edition
61/80
13.00
11.00
9.00 Tenor 14-May-10 Dec '09 Mar '09
1Y 6.47 6.14 9.47
7.00
. . .
3Y 7.38 7.89 10.94
4Y 7.91 8.44 11.31
5Y 8.40 8.80 11.69
6Y 8.50 9.06 11.92
7Y 8.57 9.24 12.10
10Y 8.74 10.04 12.69
5.00
1Y 2Y 3Y 4Y 5Y 6Y 7Y 10Y 15Y 20Y 30Y
' '
15Y 9.47 10.64 12.70
20Y 9.98 10.72 12.96
30Y 10.26 10.97 12.95
- ay- ec ay
52Departemen Keuangan Republik IndonesiaMinistry of Finance Republikc of Indonesia
Declining cost of fund of Domestic Government Securities reflects increasing marketconfidence as a response of prudent fiscal policy and debt management
Yield Curve of Indonesian Global Bond
8/9/2019 Indonesia Government Debt Profile Per May 2010 English Edition
62/80
[Procentage]
9.16
9.479.36
9.00
8.79
.
6.84
6.56
4.48
4.84
5.15
5.31 5.35
4.79
5.01
5.34 5.35
.
31 Dec08 31Dec09 14May10
4Y 3.85
5Y 8.79 4.14 4.27
6Y 9.11 4.48 4.57
7Y 9.16 4.84 4.79
4.14
3.85
4.27
4.57 31Dec08
31Dec09
14May10
8Y 5.15 5.01
9Y 9.47 5.31 5.34
10Y 5.35 5.35
15Y
20Y
30Y 9.36 6.84 6.56
53Departemen Keuangan Republik IndonesiaMinistry of Finance Republikc of Indonesia
.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 15 20 30
8/9/2019 Indonesia Government Debt Profile Per May 2010 English Edition
63/80
Chapter 6Performance of Secondary Market for Govt.
Securities Trading Volume, Govt. Securities
wners p ruc ure
Departemen Keuangan Republik IndonesiaMinistry of Finance Republikc of Indonesia
Average Daily Trading of Domestic Govt. Securities,as of May 14, 2010
8/9/2019 Indonesia Government Debt Profile Per May 2010 English Edition
64/80
400
450
8.0
9.0
[ Frequency][ Trillion IDR ]
Until 2007, the increasing trend of
average daily trading showed a
better market li uidit . Global
300
350
6.0
7.0
financial crisis in 2008 has
significantly reduced tradingactivities. However, the average
200
250
4.0
5.0
vo ume rema ns er an
2005s figure when the crisis hit.
100
150
2.0
3.0
0
50
0.0
1.0
A M J J A S O N D J F M AM J J A S O N D J F M AM J J A S O N D J F M AM J J A S O N D J F M AM J J A S O N D J F M AM J J A S O N D J F M AM
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Volume Average Daily Volume per Year Frequency - RHS
54Departemen Keuangan Republik IndonesiaMinistry of Finance Republikc of Indonesia
Government Securities Ownership - Bank and Non Bank,as of May 14, 2010
8/9/2019 Indonesia Government Debt Profile Per May 2010 English Edition
65/80
y ,
30.00%
600
700
[Trillion IDR]
The more diversified investor is demonstrated by the
shrinkage of bank ownership and the augmentation of non-
bank, foreign and retail investor
20.00%
25.00%
500
Increasing offshore ownership is a sign of better market
confidence
15.00%
300
400
10.00%
200
-
.
0
100
'04
'04
'04
'04
'05
'05
'05
'05
'05
'05
'06
'06
'06
'06
'06
'06
'07
'07
'07
'07
'07
'07
'08
'08
'08
'08
'08
'08
'09
'09
'09
'09
'09
'09
'10
'10
-10
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Mar
14-May
NON-BANK BANK % Foreign to Total - RHS
55Departemen Keuangan Republik Indonesia
Catatan:Non-Bank including Government institution
Ministry of Finance Republikc of Indonesia
8/9/2019 Indonesia Government Debt Profile Per May 2010 English Edition
66/80
Domestic Government Securities Ownership (%)
8/9/2019 Indonesia Government Debt Profile Per May 2010 English Edition
67/80
Dec'04 Dec'05 Dec'06 Dec '07 Dec'08 Mar'09 Jun'09 Sep'09 Dec'09 Jan'10 Feb'10 Mar'10 Apr'10 14-May-10
BANK 72.02% 72.44% 64.27% 56.23% 49.22% 51.06% 48.96% 46.14% 43.72% 42.62% 41.56% 40.08% 39.13% 39.22%
State-owned Bank Re 39.78% 38.64% 36.48% 32.38% 27.53% 28.19% 26.31% 25.08% 24.79% 24.13% 23.96% 23.78% 23.87%
Private Bank Recap 23.83% 21.35% 19.29% 15.20% 11.73% 12.16% 11.74% 11.00% 10.31 10.01 9.82 9.16% 9.13%
Non-recap Bank 8.12% 11.45% 7.83% 7.40% 8.59% 9.03% 9.50% 8.79% 7.29% 7.38% 6.71% 6.20% 5.33%
BPD recap 0.30% 0.99% 0.66% 1.25% 1.24% 1.55% 1.27% 1.13% 1.03% 0.79% 0.74% 0.61% 0.42%Shariate Bank 0.13% 0.14% 0.14% 0.14% 0.30% 0.31% 0.33% 0.34% 0.38% 0.40%
Bank Indonesia - 2.63% 1.80% 3.11% 4.38% 3.90% 4.82% 4.12% 3.87% 3.74% 3.14% 3.15% 2.38% 2.81%
Bank Indonesia - 2.63% 1.80% 3.11% 4.38% 3.90% 4.82% 4.12% 3.87% 3.74% 3.14% 3.15% 2.38% 2.81%
- -
NON-BANK 27.98% 24.93% 33.93% 40.66% 46.40% 45.04% 46.22% 49.74% 52.41% 53.63% 55.30% 56.77% 58.50% 57.97%
u ua un . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Insurance 6.78% 8.08% 8.37% 9.10% 10.62% 11.02% 11.11% 12.01% 12.48% 12.82% 12.98% 13.16% 12.48% 12.49%
Foreign 2.69% 7.78% 13.12% 16.36% 16.66% 14.60% 15.68% 16.43% 18.56% 19.49% 20.21% 22.33% 24.55% 23.96%
Pension fund 4.11% 5.51% 5.51% 5.34% 6.27% 6.31% 6.18% 6.49% 6.45% 6.37% 6.37% 6.28% 6.16% 6.17%
0.11% 0.12% 0.24% 0.06% 0.10% 0.10% 0.11% 0.13% 0.08 0.09 0.06 0.07% 0.04% 0.04%
Others 0.77% 1.17% 1.58% 4.29% 6.44% 6.57% 6.66% 7.43% 7.07% 6.90% 7.76% 7.48% 7.52% 7.55%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Total [trilion IDR] 399.30 399.84 418.75 477.75 525.69 546.66 555.91 567.37 581.75 590.15 597.82 593.16 603.28 606.83
57Departemen Keuangan Republik IndonesiaMinistry of Finance Republikc of Indonesia
1. Include SBSN ownership.
2. Foreign Holders include banks, financial institutions, etc.
3. Others include individuals, corporates, foundations, etc.
*) Include SUN repo transaction to BI, since February 8, 2008.
Offshores Ownership of Domestic Government Securities,Classified by Tenor
8/9/2019 Indonesia Government Debt Profile Per May 2010 English Edition
68/80
120,000
140,000
[Billion IDR]
Most of foreign investors hold long-term (more than 5 years)government debt securities representing 71,94% of the totaloffshore holders as of January 21, 2009. It represents marketconfidence toward Indonesian long-term economy outlook.
100,000
60,000
80,000
75,89%74,25%
20,000
40,000
15,61%16,35%
Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 14-May-10
Total 87,606 79,834 87,153 93,225 101,415 104,473 107,998 115,018 120,810 132,459 148,130 145,389
>5 61,055 55,326 62,930 69,456 71,898 74,241 76,702 82,922 87,632 98,355 112,120 110,921
0
8,51%9,39%
2-5 20,374 18,012 18,999 17,050 20,313 21,008 21,361 20,792 21,847 21,660 22,991 22,062
0-2 6,178 6,496 5,223 6,719 9,204 9,224 9,935 11,304 11,331 12,444 13,019 12,406
58Ministry of Finance Republikc of Indonesia
Spread over UST-5 Years
8/9/2019 Indonesia Government Debt Profile Per May 2010 English Edition
69/80
800TURK15 INDO15
COLM15
DATE TURK-15 INDO-15 US-5Y COLM-15
30Jun09 6.27 6.90 2.88 2.93
31Dec09 4.59 4.43 2.78 2.17
29Jan10 4.56 4.54 2.39 2.13
600 26Feb10 4.64 4.11 2.33 1.9531Mar10 4.36 4.18 2.53 1.81
15Apr10 4.29 4.07 2.54 1.73
16Apr
10 4.28 4.05 2.46 1.72
19Apr10 4.31 4.08 2.51 1.79
20A r10 4.31 4.08 2.54 1.79
400 21Apr10 4.33 4.02 2.48 1.7822Apr10 4.37 4.02 2.53 1.84
200
0
Departemen Keuangan Republik Indonesia 59
200
21Apr09 21Jun09 21Aug09 21Oct09 21Dec09 21Feb10 21Apr10
Spread over UST-10 Years
8/9/2019 Indonesia Government Debt Profile Per May 2010 English Edition
70/80
300
200
150
100
NAME PHIL-20 US-10Y COLM-20 INDO-20 TURK-20
30Jun09 3.83 6.94 6.94
31Dec09 5.48 3.85 5.82 5.77
29Jan10 5.69 3.60 6.01 5.69 5.84
50
PHIL20 COLM20
26Feb10 5.56 3.60 5.76 5.39 5.86
31Mar10 5.45 3.80 5.54 5.35 5.66
15Apr
10 5.20 3.79 5.41 5.18 5.59
16Apr10 5.20 3.72 5.49 5.18 5.60
19Apr10 5.25 3.75 5.53 5.22 5.63
20Apr10 5.20 3.75 5.53 5.22 5.63
Departemen Keuangan Republik Indonesia 60
0
16Nov09 6Dec09 26Dec09 15Jan10 4Feb10 24Feb10 16Mar10 5Apr10
INDO20GMTN TURK20 21Apr10 5.19 3.69 5.52 5.21 5.6722Apr10 5.21 3.73 5.55 5.24 5.71
Spread over UST-30 Years
8/9/2019 Indonesia Government Debt Profile Per May 2010 English Edition
71/80
600NAME COLM-37 INDO-38 US-FEB 38 TURK-38 TURK-40
30Jun09 7.19 8.34 4.33 7.55
31Dec09 6.62 6.83 4.62 6.75
400
an . . . . .
26Feb10 6.65 6.80 4.53 6.91 6.91
31Mar10 6.42 6.46 4.69 6.83 6.84
15Apr
10 6.36 6.37 4.69 6.72 6.76
16Apr10 6.37 6.36 4.65 6.72 6.76
19Apr10 6.41 6.39 4.67 6.74 6.80
300
20Apr10 6.43 6.38 4.65 6.74 6.79
21Apr10 6.39 6.36 4.59 6.76 6.81
22Apr10 6.40 6.35 4.61 6.83 6.89
200
100
COLM37 INDO38
Departemen Keuangan Republik Indonesia 61
0
22Apr09 22Jun09 22Aug09 22Oct09 22Dec09 22Feb10 22Apr10
8/9/2019 Indonesia Government Debt Profile Per May 2010 English Edition
72/80
Chapter 7
Opinion, HIPICs and Conclusion
Departemen Keuangan Republik IndonesiaMinistry of Finance Republikc of Indonesia
Indonesian Credit Rating
8/9/2019 Indonesia Government Debt Profile Per May 2010 English Edition
73/80
Rating Improvement Determinants
The Indonesian economy resilience in the face of global crisis in 2007-2008
Prudential government debt management:
Decrease of debt to GDP ratio
Timeliness of debt obligations payment
Increasing investors / lenders confidence
, , Improvement rating one notch down the potential performance yield of
new foreign currency of government securities approximately 75-115bps
Credit risk measurement of a country by OECD member countries
Range 0-7 (high risk)
62Departemen Keuangan Republik Indonesia
Decrease 1 level CRC potentially reduce the cost of foreign loans,
especially new export credit facility of about 130-150bps
Indonesian Credit Rating Development (1)
8/9/2019 Indonesia Government Debt Profile Per May 2010 English Edition
74/80
Indonesian Rating Profile 1999 - 2010
Rating
S&P Fitch Moody's CRC
1999 CCC+ B- B3 6
B- B- B3 6
a un
S&P: 2 notch goes toinvestment rade
2001 CCC B- B3 6
2002 CCC+ B B3 6
Fitch: 1 notch goes toinvestment grade
2004 B+ B+ B2 6
2005 B+ BB- B2 5
-
oo y s: no c goes oinvestment grade
2007 BB- BB- B1 5
2008 BB- BB Ba3 5
63Departemen Keuangan Republik Indonesia
-
2010 BB BB+ Ba2 4
Indonesian Credit Rating Development (2)
8/9/2019 Indonesia Government Debt Profile Per May 2010 English Edition
75/80
13
14
13
14BBB+ Baa1Inves
gr
Reka italisasiKrisis Reprofiling VR & HB, Lelang penerbitan SUN
Lelang penerbitan SUNsecara re uler ro ram
tment
ade
Selective default was experienced by the economy in 2001 and 2003Rating has significantly upgraded after 2004
10
11
12
10
11
12
BB+
BB
BBB-
Ba2
Baa3
Ba1
tment
de
Perbankan
e onom1998
Asset-Bond Swap, &penerbitan SUN
jk panjang
secara reguler,
program Buyback
secara reguler,program Buyback, &
Debt Swtiching
Buyback, DebtSwtiching, &
diversivikasi instrumenInveg
6
7
8
9
6
7
8
9
B
BB-
B-
B+
B3
B1
B2
Ba3
entgrade
NonInvest
3
4
5
3
4
5
CCC-
CCC+
CCC Caa2
Caa3
Caa1
Moodyss upgraded to Ba2on September 16,2009
S&Ps upgraded to BBon March 12, 2010
NonInvest
S&P sempatmenurunkan
rating ke SelectiveDefault namun
entgrade
-
1
2
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-
1
2
1998 1999 2000 2004 2005 2006
SD/DDD
R/C
CC a
C
1997 2001 2002 2003 2007 2008 2009 2010
c s upgra e oon January 25, 2010
direvisi kembali 2
hari kemudian
Kementerian Keuangan Republik Indonesia 64Kementerian Keuangan Republik Indonesia
S&P's Fitch's Moody's (RHS)
Indonesian Sovereign Rating Performance Upgrading
8/9/2019 Indonesia Government Debt Profile Per May 2010 English Edition
76/80
Moodys on 16 Sept. 2009 upgraded credit rating of Indonesia from Ba3 to Ba2with highlights as the following: The upgade was prompted by the Indonesian economys relatively strong resilience
-
The upgrade was also prompted by an improving credit profile derived from
Indonesias ongoing policy prudence, structural reforms, and appropriate debtmanagement
n anuary , c s upgra e cre ra ng o n ones a rom o +with stable outlook and the highlights as the following:
The rating action reflects Indonesia's relative resilience to the severe global financialstress test of 2008 - 2009 which has been underpinned by continued improvements inthe country's public finances, a fundamental sovereign rating strength, and a materialeasing of external financing constraint.
On 24 March 2010, S&P upgraded credit rating of Indonesia from BB- to BB withhighlights as the following: The Ratings on Indonesia are supported by improving public debt ratios and
accumulation of foreign reserves, which eases potential external liquidity concerns Favorable initial conditions based on years of fiscal consolidation, conservative
budgeting and banking sector reforms combined with its less susceptible economic
65Departemen Keuangan Republik Indonesia
structure and mostly appropriate policy response to shocks, enable Indonesia tonavigate the crisis without detriment to its fiscal and external credit metrics
Ministry of Finance Republikc of Indonesia
Supreme Audit Agency Opinion on Governments FinancialReport 2008
8/9/2019 Indonesia Government Debt Profile Per May 2010 English Edition
77/80
Indonesian Su reme Audit A enc BPK o ines un ualified(Wajar Tanpa Pengecualian/WTP) to the Financial Report of
all accounts related to debt management and administration-
Principal payment of foreign debt account (BA-096)
Principal payment of government securities account (BA-097)
Debt managements accountability continues to improve Internal control system
66Departemen Keuangan Republik IndonesiaMinistry of Finance Republikc of Indonesia
GDP per capita of HIPICs and Debt-Relief Countries
(USD)
8/9/2019 Indonesia Government Debt Profile Per May 2010 English Edition
78/80
Ghana 247 258 292 353 402 476 553 650
Countries 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Year(USD)
Benin 312 318 364 447 492 505 528 601
Mali 242 255 315 399 433 457 490 556
Burkina Faso 220 229 260 326 378 390 402 458
Gambia, The 304 292 250 241 255 285 307 377
Madagascar 240 272 256 310 241 270 287 372
Mozambique 234 218 220 238 284 320 326 363
Rwanda 212 196 187 199 218 258 303 341
Niger 162 169 182 213 226 251 262 294
Sierra Leone 140 171 190 192 199 217 247 286
Ethiopia 124 121 112 120 137 164 197 245
Notes:GDP Per Capita of Indonesia 2008 = USD2.246 (source: IMF)
67Departemen Keuangan Republik Indonesia
For HIPCs, debt-to-GDP ratio has declined quite significantly from 102% in 1999 to 31% in 2007
Debt write off made debt outstanding to drop off at the level of 90% in average (as on 2007)
Ministry of Finance Republikc of Indonesia
Conclusion
8/9/2019 Indonesia Government Debt Profile Per May 2010 English Edition
79/80
Fiscal deficit requires financing. Debt has long been recognized as thebest policy tool to support liquidity and to refinance matured debt
Debt outstandin accounts rowth in nominal term but debt as a share ofGDP keeps to record a significant decrease and, as our fiscal rule
mandates, it is still in a healthy level Ultimate goal of debt management is to acquire fund with low cost &
risk, with long term maturity, untied to any political agenda
Continuing to achieve sound fiscal policy and debt management: Looking at another developing and even advanced countries performance,
debt indicator of Indonesia stays better and is continuing to be so
Rules and regulations are already installed in place to guaranteeaccountability and transparency of debt management
(Wajar Tanpa Pengecualian/WTP) by the State Audit Board (BPK)
Global crisis has not changed investor expectation and market confidence toIndonesia. Rating upgrade of Moodys from stable to positive in the midst of
68
two things: positive expectation of the economy in the short-to-medium runand the credibility of fiscal policy
Departemen Keuangan Republik IndonesiaMinistry of Finance Republikc of Indonesia
8/9/2019 Indonesia Government Debt Profile Per May 2010 English Edition
80/80
Directorate Evaluation, Accounting and Settlement
Directorate General of Debt ManagementMinistry of Finance of The Republic of IndonesiaJl. Lapangan Banteng Timur 2-4 Jakarta
Tlp: 021-3449230 psw. 5647, 021-3864778Fax: 021-3843712
www.dmo.or.id