Immigrants: Resource for MN’s Economy

November 2009

Immigrant Contributions to MN’s Economy

• Workers

• Entrepreneurs

• Consumers

• Contributions change over time!

Workers

• Immigrant wkrs = majority of labor force growth

• 6.5% of population – 8% of workforce– 370,000 people– 240,000 workers– 60,000 – 80,000 undocumented

• MN growth depends on imported labor

Labor Force Growth Will Slow Sharply

1.12%

0.75%

0.43%

0.10% 0.13%

0.27%

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

2005-10 2010-15 2015-20 2020-25 2025-30 2030-35

Ave

An

nu

al C

han

ge

Migration Will Be Increasingly Important Re Growing the Labor Force

-100,000

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

2000-10 2010-20 2020-30

Total Natural Part Rate Migration

Net Labor Force Growth

State Demographer projection revised 2007

Vacancies…Even in Recession

Source: Grow Minnesota! Annual Report, 2008-2009

Hiring issues: Past 6 months or next 6 months

36%

22%

15%

8%

8%

6%5%

Precision production

Management

Sales/marketing

Information technology

Part-time

Temporary

Clerical/office staff

Warning!

Trespassers Will Be Recruited

What Industries Fueled by Immigrant Works? (Top 5)

Source: Migration Policy Institute 2006

Industry % Foreign-Born % Native- Born

Manufacturing 22% 14%

Retail Trade 8% 12%

Pro’s, Scientific, Management, Admin 12% 9%

Education, Heallth, Social Services 21% 23%

Arts, Entertainment, Recreation 13% 8%

TOTAL, TOP 5 76% 66%

MN Industries with Greatest Concentrations of Foreign-Born Workers (2006, >5000 Total ee’s)

• Mfg.- food/vegetable processing

• Mfg.- animal slaughtering & processing

• Prof. services to buildings & dwellings

• Retail - specialty foods

• Mfg.- medical equipment & supplies

• Mfg.- electro medical & control instruments

• Retail - used merchandise

MN Will See a 30% Jump in Workers Turning Age 62 Beginning 2008

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

7/05 to7/06

7/06 to7/07

7/07 to7/08

7/08 to7/09

7/09 to7/10

7/10 to7/11

7/11 to7/12

Year Turning Age 62

Wo

rke

d W

ith

in P

as

t 5

ye

ars

2005 ACS

MN Labor Force % Born in Another Country

3.3%

8.5%

12.6%

3.1%3.6%

4.8%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

1990 2000 2006

25-34

55-64

PUMS microdata from 1990 & 2000 Census & 2006 ACS

Worker Shortage: What Do We Do?

• Automate

• Grow elsewhere

• Support in-migration

Entrepreneurs

• 3% of businesses immigrant owned– Hispanic-owned up 350% since ’90– Asian-Indian firms = 400, >4,000 employees

• $331 million in net income

• Downtown & neighborhood revitalization

Consumers

• Latinos: $4 b (up 694% since 1990)

• Asians: $4.9 b (up 524% since 1990)

• Growth in buying (’90-’08 national ranking)– 9th highest for Asians– 8th highest for Hispanics

• 6% of retail sales (2007)

Economic Stimulus

• Statewide immigrants leverage: – 24,000 jobs & – $1.2 billion personal income

• Native-born wages up, except those without high school diploma

• South Central MN: – 2,600 Latino wkrs sustain 3,770 N-Latino jobs– Include Latino consumption, add 4,100 more

Illegal Immigrants…No Definitive Data

• 60,000 – 80,000 undocumented

• Approx cost: $176-$188 m per year:– $146-158 m – K12 education– $17 m – public assistance health care– $13 m – incarceration

• Cost varies greatly by community

• Immediate cost < long term benefit

MN’s Economic Realty…2030

• Population ages dramatically

• Labor force growth declines

• New enterprises critical to growth

• New Americans key to MN growth

MN’s Immigrant Opportunity: Who Can Help?

• U.S. Congress

• Education: Higher Ed, Workforce Dev

• Employers

• State Legislature & Governor?

QUESTIONS?COMMENTS?

The Boom Generation Starts Turning 65 in 2011

65+ Passes School Age Around 2020

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

18-24

65+

5-17

Census counts & State Demographer projection, revised 2007

Competition for the Future Workforce Will Increase

6.8%

4.5%

-1.6%-2.2%

13.0%

-1.2%

-3.5% -3.0%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

2000-05 2005-10 2010-15 2015-20

Per

cen

t C

han

ge

18-2

4 US

Mn

Census Bureau US Proj, Mn State Demographer revised 2007

MN’s ’06 Foreign Born Workforce Was 240,000 or 8% of the Total Workforce

0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000

Less Than HighSchool

High School

Some College

Bachelor's Degree

Advanced Degree

2006 ACS