Download - ICT and Climate Change Beijing 22nd April2011

University of Edinburgh

Climate Change and Informatics in Scotland

Andrew Mitchell – Beijing – 22nd April, 2011.

University of EdinburghAgenda

• The twin challenges of a Low Carbon Economy

• Scotland’s capabilities

• ICT and Climate Change

University of EdinburghEconomic success has led to twin challenges

• Energy security

• Environmentalsustainability

University of EdinburghIn the absence of a low carbon future…

Projections (IEA/EIA) suggest:• World energy demand rising: 1.5%/yr

• 12,000 mtoe (2007) to 16,800 mtoe by 2030 – 40% rise

• 90% of growth in demand from non-OECD countries; Asian countries main drivers

• Fossil fuel share remains at ~80%• Liquid fuels remain dominant fuel type• Demand for power generation rises 75%

• 4,800GW required by 2030 [5x current US capacity]

• Power generation dominated by coal


Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; CDIAC 2009

…as emissions’ growth from developing nations

Annex B (Kyoto Protocol)

Developed Nation

Developing Nations Non-Annex B

1990 2000 2010

5

4

3

2CO2 e

miss

ions

(PgC

y-1) 55%

45%

University of EdinburghProposition…

A low carbon future is a necessary condition to overcome the twin challenges of energy security and environmental sustainability, with their consequent impacts on equity, wealth creation, etc…

What are the barriers to delivery of a low carbon future?


Professional skills Knowledge hub Innovation

www.climatechangecentre.org.uk

University of EdinburghScotland’s Capabilities

Edinburgh Centre on Climate Change

The Edinburgh Centre aims to bridge the intimidating gap between good ideas and the practical actions required to support the transition to a low carbon economy. We undertake three types of activities:

1.Professional skills training;

2.Providing a forum for building partnerships to solve "low carbon" problems; and 3.Coordinating and sharing information on workable solutions from around the world.

Located in the cultural, political and scientific capital of Scotland and the most significant financial centre after London.

University of EdinburghScotland’s Capabilities

University of Edinburgh: particular expertise in:

• Novel Fuels and Waste Usage.• Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)• Carbon Utilisation• Economic Modelling and Accounting of Energy and Carbon • Renewable Energy Systems (Marine and Wind) • Sustainability & Low Carbon Infrastructure • Solar Cells and Thermo-Electric Power • Green Electronics and IT • Environmental Mitigation Technologies • Climate Change, Energy, Environment and Carbon • Hydrogen Storage and Nuclear Power

University of EdinburghThe world's first MSc in Carbon Finance, dedicated to professionals in the carbon market and climate change investment field and focussed on the business opportunities and financial flows driven by society's response to climate change.

A landmark collaboration between the world-renowned School of GeoSciences and the Business School at the University of Edinburgh, the MSc in Carbon Management provides a high-level, intensive exploration of a subject crucial to the future of business and, of course, the planet itself.

www.business-school.ed.ac.uk

University of EdinburghInformatics in Scotland:

• Edinburgh: Largest Computer Science department in Europe and Best Computer Science department in the UK by a factor of two (based on official Research Assessment Exercise)

• Scottish Informatics and Computer Science Alliance

• Low Carbon related research:• Low Power Consumption Chip Design

• Microbial Fuel Cells

• Energy Neutral Speckled Computing

• Centre for Earth System Dynamics and Climate Change Modelling

• Zero Carbon Buildings (CAD, Visualisation, Management, Analysis)

• Hydrodynamic Modelling of Tidal Currents

• And and and… http://www.cleaninformatics.com/

Scotland’s Capabilities

University of EdinburghICT and Climate Change

The ICT industry has a very significant role to play in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, especially in a rapidly developing country such as China. Future development in China should not follow the wrong path taken by developed countries. Many industries can make use of modern ICT technology to move into higher efficiency low carbon markets. If we are to better use ICT technology to move away from existing energy intensive work habits and lifestyles, we need government policy innovations, incentives for companies and the active participation of consumers.

Tang Min, Deputy Secretary-General,China Development Research Foundation

University of EdinburghICT and Climate Change

The ICT industry has a sizeable carbon footprint – on a par with the aviation industry at 2-3% of global carbon emissions (Gartner 2007).

BUT IT IS GROWING RAPIDLY!

“At current growth rates data centers and telecommunication networks, the two key components of the cloud Facebook depends on, will consume about 1,963 billion kilowatts hours of electricity in 2020. That’s more than triple their current consumption and more than the current electricity consumption of France, Germany, Canada and Brazil combined.”

Greenpeace Blog, March 30, 2010


Addicted to Data

The World’s Technological Capacity to Store, Communicate, and Compute InformationMartin Hilbert and Priscila LópezScience 1 April 2011: 60-65. DOI:10.1126/science.1200970

In 2007 humankind was able to store 2.9×1020 optimally compressed bytes (290 exabytes) and communicate almost 2×1021 bytes.

"If we were to take all that information and store it in books, we could cover the entire area of China in 13 layers of books”

Dr Martin HilbertUniversity of Southern California

bytes 290,000,000,000,000,000,000kilobytes 290,000,000,000,000,000

megabytes 290,000,000,000,000gigabytes 290,000,000,000terabytes 290,000,000petabytes 290,000exabytes 290

University of EdinburghThree roles of ICT in Climate Change

Reducing the Carbon Footprint of the ICT industry itself

• Zero carbon data centres

• Low power consumption chips

• Software design, deployment and management

• Consumer, corporate and supplier behaviour: product lifecycles

• Always on pervasive data networks?

Role one:

University of EdinburghThree roles of ICT in Climate Change

Informatics: analysing and understanding climate change.

Informatics is the study of the structure, the behaviour, and the

interactions of natural and engineered computational systems.

“…when you can measure what you are speaking about, and express it in numbers, you know

something about it; but when you cannot measure it, when you cannot express it in

numbers, your knowledge is of a meagre and unsatisfactory kind…”

Lord Kelvin (1824 – 1907)

Role two:

University of EdinburghSMART2020: Three roles of ICT in Climate Change

Enabling efficiency: changing the way we live and work

• Dematerialisation: (e-books, telepresence, e-billing etc)

• SMART motor systems

• SMART logistics

• SMART buildings

• SMART grids

Role three:

University of EdinburghSMART2020: Global e-Sustainability Initiative

Smart motor systems: 2% of global emissions in 2020 will come from motor systems (manufacturing) in China. 10% efficiency would deliver 200 million tonnes (Mt) CO2e savings. Applied globally, optimised motors and industrial automation would reduce 0.97 GtCO2e in 2020.

Smart logistics: Efficiencies in transport and storage, smart logistics could deliver significant fuel, electricity and heating savings (1.52 GtCO2e in 2020).

Smart buildings: Better building design, management and automation could save 15% of North America’s buildings emissions.

Globally, smart buildings technologies would enable 1.68 GtCO2e of emissions savings.

Smart grids: Reducing transmission and distribution losses in India’s power sector by 30% is possible through better monitoring and management of electricity grids, first with smart meters and then by integrating more advanced ICTs into the so-called “energy internet”.

http://www.gesi.org/ReportsPublications/Smart2020/tabid/192/Default.aspx


BUT… the ICT industry has a legacy of failing to deliver.

“All dealings with Government that can be delivered electronically will be deliverable electronically by 2005.”

Tony BlairMarch 1999

In 2011 there is still a mountain to climb:

http://www.cabinetoffice.gov.uk/government-efficiency

University of EdinburghAnd so the ICT industry challenge is:

1. Reducing the Carbon Footprint of the ICT industry itself

2. Informatics: analysing and understanding climate change.

3. Enabling efficiency: changing the way we live and work

• Dematerialisation

• Smart motor systems

• Smart logistics

• Smart buildings

• Smart grids

But most importantly: a sense of urgency and commitment to deliver.

Andrew MitchellEdinburgh Centre on Climate ChangeEmail: [email protected]: http://twitter.com/roomitchellWeb: http://www.climatechangecentre.org.uk/