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With the debut o Timelines or brands on February 29th, brands and marketers everywhere
wondered whether Facebooks an page changes would cause noticeable dierences in the
behavior o ans on brands pages. Since there are no deault landing pages, a brand new
cover photo, and entirely dierent branding opportunities would users be more or less
engaged with content? Without knowing these eects in advance, most brands decided to
wait to make the switch. Some savvy brands, however, made the switch early and adapted
immediately. These early adopters have blazed a trail through the unknown, and we decided
to take a good look at what theyve learned.
THE WILDFIRE METHOD
Wildre has compiled a statistically signicant analysis o 43 early-adopter brands o
Facebooks Timeline, including some Wildre clients and Facebooks Timeline launch
partners (Burberry, Old Spice, Coca-Cola, etc.). We were looking to understand
engagement statistics such as People Talking about This (PTAT), Likes per Page Post,
Comments per Page Post, and Fan Growth Rate or brand pages o all sizes within a
representative cross-section o brands that switched on February 29th. 45% o the brands
we tracked (or 21 days beore the Timeline switch and 21 days ater) have less than 1MM
ans. 40% had between 1MM- 10MM ans. The remaining 15% had greater than 10MM ans.
See the Appendix or a ull list o brands included in the study.
THE RESULTS
We ound a signicant dierence in the eects o switching to Timelines between dierent
sized brands. For brands with less than 1MM ans (where the range o brands studied wasrom 22,000 to 265,000 ans) the eect on engagement o switching to Timelines was very
large, and positive. Likes and Comments per post, as well as PTAT increased by double-
digit percentages. Brands in this category include Ad Age, Kate Spade New York, Diet
Mountain Dew, and Bakers Delight.
A smaller, but still signicant increase on engagement was noted with brands sized
between 1-10MM ans. This group included brands like Lexus, Dove, Tide, and ESPN.
A dierent trend became apparent with the mega brands (those with over 10MM ans). The
largest brands in the world actually experienced anegative impact. A small sampling o
these brands includes Manchester United and Coca-Cola.
THE NEGATIVE CORRELATION
While several pieces o early press about the impact o Timeline were less than positive, this
skepticism turned out not to apply to most brands. When investigating the reason or this
signicant drop in engagement statistics or the mega brands, a correlation quickly became
apparent. All o the mega brands aected negatively by the Timelines switch were part o
Facebooks debut partner brands. These are the brands whose Timelines were launched
on the same day as Facebook made the major announcement, and used by Facebook in
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its press release and all related press materials. The huge inux o attention and eyeballs
to these top brands because o their exposure as partner brands articially elevated their
engagement statistics or long enough that, ater some o the initial hype died away,
engagement rates returned to previous levels, and a downward trending engagement
rate was perceived.
THE BIGGER PICTURE
Our study shows that these numbers, and the negative trend in general, do not apply to the
vast majority o brands on Facebook: o the 37MM an pages on Facebook, less than 5%
o those pages have more than 10MM ans. One must look at the study o brands with less
than 1MM ans to get an accurate picture, as these brands make up approximately 85% o
the company pages on Facebook.
Another conclusion rom the eect o Timelines on engagement is that the popularity ocertain post types has shited. Photo and Video posts are perorming better in a Post-
Timeline world. The visual structure o the Timeline may be the cause o the signicant
increase in engagement with Photos and Videos. This visual media has more screen real
estate and is displayed very prominently. Videos and photos posted to the Timeline attract
more attention rom users, and the engagement numbers reect this.
We also measured the impact o the new Timeline eatures Pinned Posts and Featured
Posts to see i having the ability to treat dierent posts in these ways aects user
interaction with them. While the results were generally good depending on the type o
content being eatured or pinned, (i.e. video versus photo posts), there were some
statistically signicant trends, including that Pinned Posts are great at generating likes and
comments, outperorming any other type o pinned or eatured content by 1.1x on this
specic measure.
All o the numbers specic to this analysis are available below, as are a number o charts
and graphs in an Appendix. The initial result o our analysis o early adopter brands is that
Timeline has had a benecial eect on measures o brand engagement. As the sample size
and duration o Timeline pages increase, the analysis may yield dierent results.
Methodology
We studied 43 brands in total, all o which launched their Timeline pages on Feb 29.
This set includes 20 o Facebooks launch partners, and a random sampling o 23 other
brand pages. The date range or the study was February 1st March 23rd, which achieved
statistical signicance by tracking the 21 days leading up to the Timeline debut, and 21 days
ater the early adopter brands switched.
Brands Chosen (43)
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How did the an growth rate and engagement stats o these groups change with Timeline?
< 1 M fans
Daily Fan Growth Rate -0.04%
PTAT 67.4%
Comments Per Brand Post 40.0%
Likes Per Brand Post 60.3%
For an pages with less than 1 MM ans, a cross-section o samples representing the an
page sizes o over 95% o Facebook, all changes in engagement statistics were markedly
positive. People Talking About This, Comments per Post, and Likes per Post all increased
by over 40%, hugely signicant changes. Interestingly, there was no corresponding change
in an growth rate ater Timeline, so while users were markedly more engaged ater the big
switch, no more o them than usual committed to being a an o the pages.
1-10 Million Fans
Daily Fan Growth Rate -0.02%
PTAT 28.58%
Comments Per Brand Post -17.43%
Likes Per Brand Post 13.56%
For an pages with between 1MM and 10MM ans, PTAT and Likes per Post increased
signicantly. On the other hand, Comments per Post decreased signicantly. Fan Growth
Rate remained unaected.
10 + Million Fans
Daily Fan Growth Rate -0.06%
PTAT -13.72%
Comments Per Brand Post -16.72%
Likes Per Brand Post -11.57%
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For the largest mega brands, with over 10MM Facebook ans, there was a markedly
negative change in engagement statistics ater the Timeline transition. One interesting
correlation that may play a large role in this negative turnout is that all o the 7 brands
o this size in the study were Facebook launch partner brands or the Timeline debut.
This means that the brands got heavy press activity, having been part o a select group
o brands that got promoted within Facebook press materials, as well as other articles
published or days ater. The increase in engagement was so steep across the period
o heavy press promotion, that when the press subsided, the corresponding drop
in engagement was thunderous. Thereore, the resulting engagement statistics are
characteristic o the inated engagement due to high press activity more so than any known
eects o Timeline on the brand.
Finally, despite the signicant dierences in engagement activity ater the implementation
o Timelines or brands, none o the an page size segments experienced any change in
Facebook Fan Growth Rate. Despite all the extra trafc to these early adopter brands
(especially those that were a part o Facebooks launch partner program, receiving high
press attention) which led to signicant directional impact on engagement scores, an
growth didnt budge. This indicates that users were not entirely convinced by the new and
ashy TImeline activity they would engage with it, but were not persuaded enough to
commit a Like to the page.
In addition to understanding the efect o a change to Timeline on
engagement metrics, we also looked to see more inormation about
engagement as it related to page posting practices.
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THE PAGE POST CHANGES
Post Behavior
Dataset: This data is taken rom 50 brands that switched over to Timeline on Feb 29 and
covers the date ranges Feb 1 March 23.
Links are the most common message type. O the 4,780 posts created by brands during
this time, 39.9% were links, with photos coming in second at 34.6%. The distribution o post
types did not change substantially beore and ater Timeline rolled out.
What types o content generate the best likes, comments, and shares?
PRE-TIMELINE
LIKES COMMENTS SHARES
Status (most) Status (most) Video (most)
Photo Photo Photo
Video Video Status
Link (least) Link (least) Link (least)
Pre-Timeline
Status updates were the best ways to generate likes and comments, outperforming the
next best post type by 21.8% and 17% respectively
Video posts were the best way to generate shares, outperforming the next best type of
post by 69.5%
POST-TIMELINE
LIKES COMMENTS SHARES
Status (most) Photo (most) Video (most)
Photo Status Photo
Video Video Link
Link (least) Link Status
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Post-Timeline
Status updates are the best at generating likes, outperforming the next best post
type by 21.1%
Photos are the best at generating comments, outperforming the next best posttype by 8.3%
Videos are the king of generating shares, outperforming the next best post
type by 90%
IMPORTANT NOTE: Photo and Video posts are quantitatively perorming better in a Post-
Timeline world. The visual structure o the Timeline may be the cause o the signicant
increase in engagement with Photos and Videos. This visual media has more screen real
estate and is displayed very prominently. Videos and photos posted to the Timeline attract
more attention rom users, and the engagement numbers reect this.
How are pinned and eatured posts perorming?
Since Feb 29, the brands we tracked published 98 eatured posts and 18 pinned posts. In a
head to head comparison against posts created beore the Timeline launch, perormance
seems good.
AVE. NO. OF
LIKES
AVE. NO. OF
COMMENTS
AVE. NO. OF
SHARES
Regular Posts 3051.15 363.90 217.90
Featured Posts 3032.96 354,.62 409.24
Pinned Posts 4228.83 386.28 286.28
On a per post basis, pinned and eatured posts perorm the same or better than regular
posts. The brightest spot is the perormance o Pinned Photo Posts.
How do photo pinned posts perorm against other post types?
AVE. NO. OF
LIKES
AVE. NO. OF
COMMENTS
AVE. NO. OF
SHARES
Regular Photo
Posts4399.66 591.71 297.52
Featured
Photo Posts3268.79 441.75 282.53
Pinned PhotoPosts
6348.40 607.70 487.10
Pinned Photo posts outperorm any other type o eatured post content in terms o likes,
comments and shares. More importantly, they outperorm regular photo posts as well.
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What type o pinned or eatured content drives sharing?
Featured Video Posts perorm the best at generating shares. In terms o encouraging
shares, Featured Video Posts not only outperorm any other type o eatured or pinned
content by 3.77x, they also outperorm VIdeo Posts by 2x.
One thing to note is that over 2500 posts were generated by our target brands since the
Timeline launch, o which only 116 were Featured or Pinned. This isnt conclusive data, but
the trend does point towards photos as the pinned content o choice.
Appendix: Data and Charts
Figure 1.0 The Average People Talking About this rate o change was increasing
ater the switch to Timeline.
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
1/181/31 2/12/14 2/152/28 2/293/13 3/143/25
Avg.
DailyPTAT
AggregatePTATforBrandPageswith
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Figure 1.1 People Talking About This rises ater the switch to Timelines or mid-
size brands.
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
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Avg.
DailyPTAT
AggregatePTATforPageswith110MMFans
Figure 1.2 People Talking About Mega-Brands decreases slightly ater the introduc-
tion o Timelines.
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
1/181/31 2/12/14 2/152/28 2/293/13 3/143/25
Avg.
DailyPTAT
AggregatePTATforPageswith10MM+Fans
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Figure 1.3 Likes on Brand Posts or Pages with less than 1MM ans increase signi-
cantly.
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
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Avg.
DailyLikes
LikesonBrandPostsforPageswith
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Figure 1.5 Likes on Brand Posts decrease ater Timeline or mega-brands.
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
1/181/31 2/12/14 2/152/28 2/293/13 3/143/25
Avg.
DailyLikes
LikesonBrandPostsforPageswith10+MMFans
Figure 1.6 Comments on brand posts decrease ater Timelines, but not at as ast a
rate as they increased. This is a net positive efect on engagement.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1/181/31 2/12/14 2/152/28 2/293/13 3/143/25
Avg.
DailyComments
CommentsonBrandPostsforPageswith
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Figure 1.7 Comments on Brand Posts by a medium sized an base decrease
slightly.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1/181/31 2/12/14 2/152/28 2/293/13 3/143/25
Avg.
DailyComments
CommentsonBrandPostsforPageswith110MMFans
Figure 1.8 Comments on Brand Posts made by mega brands decrease signi-
cantly.
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1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1/181/31 2/12/14 2/152/28 2/293/13 3/143/25
Avg.
DailyComments
CommentsonBrandPostsforPageswith10+MMFans
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THE BRANDS
Brand Name Facebook Page
Advertising Age http://www.acebook.com/adage
AT&T http://www.acebook.com/att
Bakers Delight http://www.acebook.com/bakersdelight
Ben & Jerrys http://www.acebook.com/benjerry
Burberry http://www.acebook.com/burberry
Burton http://www.acebook.com/BurtonMenswear
Captain Morgan USA http://www.acebook.com/CaptainMorganUSA
Chegg http://www.acebook.com/Chegg
Coca-Cola http://www.acebook.com/cocacola
Coldplay http://www.acebook.com/coldplay
CONTOUR http://www.acebook.com/contour
Detroit Lions http://www.acebook.com/DetroitLions
Diet Mountain Dew http://www.acebook.com/DietDew
Dove http://www.acebook.com/dove
ESPN http://www.acebook.com/espn
Ford Motor Company http://www.acebook.com/ord
Harley-Davidson http://www.acebook.com/harley-davidson
HubSpot http://www.acebook.com/hubspot
Hyundai Worldwide http://www.acebook.com/Hyundaiworldwide
Kate Spade New Yor http://www.acebook.com/katespade
Lexus http://www.acebook.com/lexus
Liquor.com http://www.acebook.com/Liquor.com
Livestrong http://www.acebook.com/livestrong
Louis Vuitton http://www.acebook.com/LouisVuitton
Macys http://www.acebook.com/Macys
Magnolia Bakery http://www.acebook.com/MagnoliaBakery
Manchester United http://www.acebook.com/manchesterunited
Mountain Dew http://www.acebook.com/mountaindew
Nespresso http://www.acebook.com/nespresso
Old Spice http://www.acebook.com/OldSpice
Red Bull http://www.acebook.com/redbull
SOL REPUBLIC http://www.acebook.com/solrepublic
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SportsCenter http://www.acebook.com/SportsCenter
Starbucks http://www.acebook.com/Starbucks
Subway http://www.acebook.com/Subway
The New York Times http://www.acebook.com/nytimes
Tide http://www.acebook.com/tide
Tiany & Co. http://www.acebook.com/tiany
Today Show http://www.acebook.com/today
Toyota USA http://www.acebook.com/toyota
Verizon Wireless http://www.acebook.com/verizon
Walmart http://www.acebook.com/walmart
Windows http://www.acebook.com/windows
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