The 2012 Horizon Report
Presentation materials
The limits of emergent
Futuresmethods
Extrapolation Environment
al scan Futures
market Scenarios Delphi
Caveat: wild cards and Black Swans
Extraordinary political or economic event
Technology breakthrough (ex: AI)
iPhone Apps Store downloads1.April 2009 1.0 billion2.July 2009 1.5 billion3.Sept 2009 2.0 billion4.Dec 2009 …?
-works with data sources-can lead to more data-gathering, metrics
Facebooks’ ascent
Tweak to contexts
What are some metrics you use for
extrapolation?
Environmental scanning
Multiple sources
Should belongitudinal
Scan 2.0: crowdsourcing Social
networks Iterated
resource feeds
Scanner contributes content
Dynamic social media venue
Is there a higher education bubble?
Digital humanities on the rise
Adjunctification continues
Alternative online learning
Textbooks going ebook+
Scholarly publication and/versus open access
Higher education budgets
Computer hardware ecology
Has the World Wide Web hit its limit?
January-Feb 2012 scan sample
Augmented reality mainstreamed
Social organization through social media
Some tuition freezes, cuts
Intergenerational tensions: public + private
International liberal education
Maker culture on campus
High-speed trading
Global economic stresses
Rise of natural gas
March 2012 scan sample
unconferences MOOCs reaching
to K-12 social media:
growth or plateau?
new certifications seniors online:
majority academic unions
vs lecture capture 3d printing in
browser
bipartisan .edu reform
ebooks Google Books lost
a legal round rapid publication
for contemporary issues
connects publication to student assessment
etextbook DRM patent
June 2012 scan sample
Next 20 years? Screening Interacting Sharing Flowing Accessing Generating
-Kevin Kelly
Pattern recognition:Deductions from scanning
Pick one story from the past month which seems to
suggest a developing trend.
Futures markets Propositions in time Shares to be traded
Will 25 or more institutions be
participating in Flickr’s Creative Commons
project by March 26, 2009?
Futures markets Quant. +
Qual. Affordances of
play
Continuous Distributed
feedback
Which alternative to PowerPoint will become
most widely used on campuses?
Scenarios Stories about futures Event and response Creativity
Roles and times Emergent practices
and patterns
Scenarios
Build upon other methods: Select drivers –
environmental scan Identify trends – Delphi
reports Test trends - extrapolation Test propositions –
prediction markets
Delphi
Assemble experts
Probe for opinions
Rank and distill ideas
Reiterate
Example: the Horizon Report “[A] comprehensive review and analysis of
research, articles, papers, blogs, and interviews
[We] discussed existing applications and brainstormed new ones.
A key criterion was the potential relevance of the topics to teaching, learning, research, and creative expression.
Iteration, ranking, reiteration, reranking”
Key Technologies0-1 year: Mobile Apps
0-1 year: Tablet Computing
2-3 years: Game-Based Learning
2-3 years: Learning Analytics
4-5 years: Gesture-Based Computing
4-5 years: Internet of Things
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Cf7IL_eZ38
Key Trends People expect to be able to work, learn, and study whenever and wherever they want to.
The technologies we use are increasinglycloud-based, and our notions of IT supportare decentralized.
The world of work is increasingly collaborative,driving changes in the way student projects arestructured.
The abundance of resources and relationships made easily accessible via the Internet is increasingly challenging us to revisit our roles aseducators.
Education paradigms are shifting to includeonline learning, hybrid learning and collaborative models.
There is a new emphasis in the classroom on more challenge-based and active learning.
Significant Challenges
Economic pressures and new models of education are bringing unprecedented competition to the traditional models of higher education.
Appropriate metrics of evaluation lag the emergence of new scholarly forms of authoring, publishing, and researching.
Digital media literacy continues its rise inimportance as a key skill in every discipline and profession.
Institutional barriers present formidablechallenges to moving forward in a constructiveway with emerging technologies.
New modes of scholarship are presenting significant challenges for libraries and university collections, how scholarship is documented, and the business models to support these activities.
Two megatrends
Openness--concepts like open content, open data, and open resources, along with notions of transparency and easy access to data and information--is moving from a trend to a value for much of the world.
Two megatrends
There is a rise in informal learning as individual needs are redefining schools, universities, and training.
LINKSNMC Horizon Report page: http://www.nmc.org/publications/horizon-report-2012-higher-ed-edition
Educause copy: http://net.educause.edu/ir/library/pdf/HR2012.pdf
NITLEhttp://nitle.org
NITLE prediction markets gamehttp://markets.nitle.org/
Bryan on Twitterhttp://twitter.com/BryanAlexander
Bryan elsewherehttp://bryanalexander.org