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Report on Monthly Survey of
Retail Sales
December 2010
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CONTENTS Page Introduction 1 General observations 1 Tables1.
1. Value index of retail sales by type ofretail outlet
4
2. 2. Value of retail sales by type of retail outlet 7
3.
3. Value of retail sales in supermarkets bybroad product category
10
4.
4. Value of retail sales in department stores by
broad product category
11
5. 5. Volume index of retail sales by type ofretail outlet
12
6.
6. Movement of the volume of total retail sales 15
Charts1. 1. Value index of total retail sales 162. 2. Volume index of total retail sales 16
Survey methodology1. 1. Survey coverage 172. 2. Sample design 173. 3. Data collection 174. 4. Points to note in analysing retail sales statistics 185. 5. Classification of retail outlets 186. 6. Backcasted series of new retail sales statistics 19
Appendices. A. Revisedcoverage of different types of
retail outlets
20
. B. Concordance table for types of retail outletsunder old and new classifications
21
: (852) 2802 1258 (852) 2123 [email protected]
Enquiries about this publication can be directed to :Distribution Services Statistics Section, Census and Statistics Department
Address : 19/F Chuangs Hung Hom Plaza, 83 Wuhu Street, Hung Hom,Kowloon, Hong Kong, China.
Tel. : (852) 2802 1258 Fax : (852) 2123 1036E-mail : [email protected]
Website of the Census and Statistics Departmentwww.censtatd.gov.hk
Published in February 2011
This publication is available in download version only.
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Introduction1.
1. The Monthly Survey of Retail Sales(MRS) collects data for compiling retail salesstatistics primarily intended to measure the salesreceipts in respect of goods sold by local retailestablishments, for gauging the short-termbusiness performance of the local retail sector.
2.
2. The classification of retail establishmentsfollows the Hong Kong Standard IndustrialClassification (HSIC), which is used in variouseconomic surveys for classifying economic unitsinto different industry classes. To facilitateanalysis of the short-term business performanceof the local retail sector, the industry classes ofthe retail sector have been grouped into 20 retailoutlet types in this report, taking into accounttheir importance in the retail sector.
3. 2.02.0
3. Upon the implementation of the newHSIC Version 2.0 by the Census and StatisticsDepartment in October 2008, the MRS has beenenhanced to adopt the new classification incompiling the retail sales statistics. Startingfrom the reference month of January 2009, allthe retail sales statistics are compiled based onthe HSIC Version 2.0.
General observations4. 349 18.5% 15.9%
4. According to the MRS, the value of total retail sales in December 2010, provisionallyestimated at $34.9 billion, increased by 18.5%over a year earlier. After netting out the effectof price changes over the same period, thevolume of total retail sales increased by 15.9%in December 2010 when compared with a yearearlier. The relevant components of the
Consumer Price Index are used as deflators.
5. 27018.1%15.4%
5. The revised estimate of the value of totalretail sales in November 2010, at $27.0 billion,increased by 18.1% when compared withNovember 2009, while the volume of total retailsales increased by 15.4%.
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6. 103.6% 29.8% 27.8% 24.7% 14.5% 14.2% 13.0% 9.4% 7.4% 6.7%3.1%
6. Analysed by broad type of retail outletand comparing December 2010 withDecember 2009, the volume of sales of
miscellaneous consumer durable goodsincreased the most, by 103.6%. This wasfollowed by sales of footwear, allied products
and other clothing accessories (+29.8% involume); electrical goods and photographic
equipment (+27.8%); jewellery, watches and clocks, and valuable gifts (+24.7%); miscellaneous consumer goods (+14.5%);wearing apparel (+14.2%); furniture and
fixtures (+13.0%); commodities insupermarkets (+9.4%); motor vehicles andparts (+7.4%); commodities in departmentstores (+6.7%); and food, alcoholic drinks andtobacco (+3.1%).
7. 3.2%
7. On the other hand, the volume of sales of
fuels decreased by 3.2% in December 2010when compared with a year earlier.
8. 8.0%
8. Based on the seasonally adjusted series,the volume of total retail sales increased by8.0% in the fourth quarter of 2010 whencompared with the preceding quarter.
9.
18.3%
15.5%
9. For 2010 as a whole, total retail salesincreased by 18.3% in value or 15.5% in volume
over 2009.
10. 49.8% 36.8% 28.6% 26.0% 18.3% 15.3% 12.5% 11.9%9.5%6.2%3.5%1.5%
10. Analysed by broad type of retail outletand comparing the whole year of 2010 with2009, the volume of sales of miscellaneous
consumer durable goods increased the most, by49.8%. This was followed by sales ofmotorvehicles and parts (+36.8% in volume);electrical goods and photographic equipment(+28.6%); jewellery, watches and clocks, and
valuable gifts (+26.0%); footwear, allied products and other clothing accessories(+18.3%); wearing apparel (+15.3%);
commodities in department stores (+12.5%);furniture and fixtures (+11.9%);miscellaneous consumer goods (+9.5%); food, alcoholic drinks and tobacco (+6.2%); commodities insupermarkets (+3.5%); andfuels (+1.5%).
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11.
11. Table 1 presents the value index of retailsales for all retail outlets and by type of retailoutlet from January to December 2010. Thevalue index is compiled with the averagemonthly value index of retail sales fromOctober 2004 to September 2005 taken as 100.
12.
12. Table 2 presents the value of retail salesfor all retail outlets and by type of retail outletfrom January to December 2010.
13.
13. Table 3 presents the value of retail salesin supermarkets by broad product category fromJanuary to December 2010.
14.
14. Table 4 presents the value of retail sales
in department stores by broad product categoryfrom January to December 2010.
15.
15. Table 5 presents the volume index ofretail sales for all retail outlets and by type ofretail outlet from January to December 2010.The volume index is compiled with the averagemonthly volume index of retail sales fromOctober 2004 to September 2005 taken as 100.
16.
16. Table 6 shows the movement of the volumeof total retail sales in terms of theyear-on-year rate of change for a month comparedwith the same month in the preceding year basedon the original series, and in terms of the rate ofchange for a three-month period compared withthe preceding three-month period based on theseasonally adjusted series.
17.
17. Charts 1 and 2 depict, respectively, themovements of the value and volume indices of
total retail sales from December 2007 toDecember 2010 and the seasonally adjustedindices from December 2007 to December 2010.
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Table 1: Value index of retail sales by type of retail outlet, January to December 2010 (Average of monthly indices from
2010 Type of retail outlet 1(1) 2(1) 1-2(1) 3 4 5 6 7 8
174.3 160.1 167.2 147.2 149.2 154.1 144.7 162.1 158.0All retail outlets (+6.5) (+35.8) (+18.7) (+19.0) (+15.5) (+19.7) (+15.3) (+19.2) (+17.1)
159.9 155.8 157.8 137.3 143.5 140.9 129.6 131.3 139.8Food, alcoholic drinks and tobacco
(other than supermarkets)(+1.1) (+37.7) (+16.4) (+6.9) (+9.3) (+8.8) (+10.7) (+10.3) (+7.6)
178.4 182.5 180.5 158.9 160.3 141.6 131.5 122.3 130.2Fish, livestock and poultry,
fresh or frozen
(+0.5) (+28.9) (+13.1) (+3.9) (+3.2) (+0.1) (+3.4) (+5.8) (+3.2)
99.7 75.3 87.5 110.2 117.0 118.3 126.1 117.4 119.4Fruits and vegetables, fresh (+3.1) (+2.4) (+2.8) (+3.3) (+4.5) (+0.9) (+1.3) (-2.2) (+2.0)
120.8 134.2 127.5 114.6 110.3 119.1 111.4 116.0 124.4Bread, pastry, confectionery and
biscuits
(-7.6) (+35.7) (+11.1) (+10.8) (+10.7) (+15.8) (+17.4) (+17.1) (+20.2)
243.6 243.2 243.4 200.2 209.8 206.0 198.4 212.8 207.6Alcoholic drinks and tobacco (+21.5) (+55.5) (+36.4) (+15.0) (+22.6) (+24.5) (+26.5) (+20.9) (+8.6)
161.6 139.7 150.7 118.7 137.2 141.7 118.0 127.6 144.7Other foodstuffs (-2.3) (+52.2) (+17.2) (+4.8) (+11.4) (+9.5) (+10.2) (+8.7) (+5.1)
134.4 141.5 138.0 125.5 124.4 135.2 132.2 139.9 140.1Supermarkets (-12.6) (+27.0) (+4.0) (+1.6) (+2.9) (+2.2) (+2.6) (+6.4) (+4.9)
137.2 116.5 126.8 138.5 138.9 148.0 139.6 147.1 146.9Fuels (+10.9) (+9.9) (+10.4) (+16.5) (+11.4) (+12.2) (+4.2) (+8.1) (+5.7)
Note : Please refer to the last page of this tab
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Table 2: Value of retail sales by type of retail outlet, January to December 2010
2010 Type of retail outlet 1(1) 2(1) 1-2(1) 3 4 5 6 7 8
29,308 26,925 56,233 24,753 25,084 25,905 24,330 27,258 26,564
All retail outlets
2,831 2,758 5,589 2,431 2,541 2,495 2,294 2,324 2,476Food, alcoholic drinks and tobacco(other than supermarkets)
937 959 1,896 835 842 744 691 643 684Fish, livestock and poultry,fresh or frozen
166 126 292 184 195 197 210 196 199Fruits and vegetables, fresh
491 545 1,036 466 448 484 453 471 505Bread, pastry, confectionery andbiscuits 447 446 892 367 385 378 364 390 381Alcoholic drinks and tobacco
790 683 1,473 580 671 692 577 624 707Other foodstuffs
3,056 3,217 6,272 2,853 2,828 3,073 3,006 3,180 3,184Supermarkets
687 583 1,270 693 695 741 699 736 736Fuels
Note : Please refer to the last page of this tab
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Table 2: Value of retail sales by type of retail outlet, January to December 2010 (Cont'd)
2010 Type of retail outlet 1(1) 2(1) 1-2(1) 3 4 5 6 7 8
4,124 3,758 7,883 3,129 3,097 3,311 2,793 3,691 3,120
Clothing, footwear and allied products 3,410 3,196 6,606 2,735 2,752 2,901 2,368 3,208 2,605Wearing apparel
714 563 1,277 394 345 410 425 483 515Footwear, allied products andother clothing accessories
4,107 3,659 7,766 4,280 4,099 3,826 3,768 4,372 4,457Consumer durable goods
1,049 848 1,897 1,164 1,177 1,133 1,140 1,438 1,107Motor vehicles and parts
2,044 2,111 4,156 2,299 2,021 1,832 1,724 1,952 2,167Electrical goods andphotographic equipment 706 466 1,172 532 582 541 548 615 657Furniture and fixtures 307 233 541 284 320 319 356 367 527Other consumer durable goods,not elsewhere classified
2,969 2,797 5,766 2,280 2,212 2,840 2,307 2,569 2,537Department stores
5,543 4,829 10,373 4,269 4,359 4,719 4,592 5,163 5,158Jewellery, watches and clocks,and valuable gifts
Note : Please refer to the last page of this tab
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Table 4: Value of retail sales in department stores by broad product category, January to December 2010
2010 Broad product category 1
(1)2
(1) 1-2(2) 3 4 5 6 7 8
Non-supermarket sections
189 192 381 150 137 192 155 158 160Food, alcoholic drinks and tobacco
960 793 1,754 759 667 892 728 881 811Clothing and footwear
286 241 527 215 230 331 278 238 235
Electrical appliances, furniture andfixtures and other durable goods
411 397 808 464 457 549 444 484 515Proprietary medicines and supplies,cosmetics and toilet requisites
123 112 235 102 131 151 112 126 157Jewellery, watches and clocks, andvaluable gifts
715 702 1,416 347 339 441 324 412 397
Travel and sports goods, householdgoods and other goods
(2) 285 360 645 242 251 285 266 270 262Supermarket sections
(2)
2,969 2,797 5,766 2,280 2,212 2,840 2,307 2,569 2,537Total
* Notes : * Provisional figures.(1)
(1) Affected by the timing of the Luna
significant volatilities in the first twfigures for January and February are p
(2) (2) Supermarket sections are engaged in foods as major items.
(3) (3) The sum of individual items might nbecause of rounding.
(4) 2.0 (4) All the retail sales statistics are compi
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Table 5: Volume index of retail sales by type of retail outlet, January to December 2010 (Average of monthly indices fro
2010 Type of retail outlet 1(1) 2(1) 1-2(1) 3 4 5 6 7 8
154.2 142.9 148.6 132.6 131.0 135.3 127.4 143.9 141.2All retail outlets (+3.2) (+31.5) (+15.1) (+17.3) (+12.4) (+16.3) (+11.9) (+16.2) (+14.9)
125.0 118.6 121.8 106.2 111.4 109.5 100.2 101.4 108.1Food, alcoholic drinks and tobacco
(other than supermarkets)(-1.0) (+31.2) (+12.5) (+6.7) (+8.4) (+7.1) (+8.5) (+7.3) (+4.6)
125.3 120.4 122.9 111.0 112.9 99.5 91.1 84.4 90.5Fish, livestock and poultry,
fresh or frozen
(+6.7) (+25.6) (+15.2) (+4.6) (+4.1) (+0.3) (+1.1) (+3.3) (+0.2)
72.5 47.0 59.8 74.9 82.3 83.1 90.2 81.8 84.0Fruits and vegetables, fresh (+1.9) (-17.0) (-6.4) (-2.8) (-7.4) (-10.4) (-5.8) (-11.9) (-5.2)
103.5 114.8 109.1 97.8 93.5 100.7 93.9 96.8 103.8Bread, pastry, confectionery and
biscuits
(-7.0) (+36.1) (+11.6) (+10.8) (+10.0) (+13.2) (+15.6) (+14.3) (+16.8)
206.0 205.8 205.9 169.4 177.5 173.1 166.5 178.7 174.3Alcoholic drinks and tobacco (+0.2) (+31.3) (+13.7) (+15.5) (+23.1) (+23.8) (+25.7) (+20.2) (+8.2)
130.3 111.6 120.9 95.1 109.6 112.6 93.9 101.3 114.2Other foodstuffs (-5.2) (+46.3) (+13.2) (+3.3) (+9.3) (+6.6) (+6.9) (+4.7) (+1.0)
112.9 119.4 116.2 104.4 103.7 112.7 110.8 116.7 117.2Supermarkets (-15.5) (+23.8) (+1.0) (+0.3) (+0.8) (+0.5) (+1.3) (+4.7) (+4.2)
124.0 104.2 114.1 122.9 121.8 131.7 126.8 132.2 131.6Fuels (+0.5) (-0.1) (+0.2) (+5.1) (-0.7) (+2.8) (+1.7) (+4.0) (+3.5)
Note : Please refer to the last page of this tab
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: Table 6 : Movement of the volume of total retail sales, October 2009 to December 2010
Original Series
Seasonally Adjusted Series
/Year / Month
(%)Year-on-year
rate of change (%)
3 months ending /
Year / Month
Compared with the
3 months ending /
Year / Month
(1)(2) (%)Rate of change(1)(2) (%)
2009 10 +8.3 2009 10 2009 7 +5.6
11 +10.0 11 8 +6.1
12 +11.4 12 9 +6.8
2010 1 +3.2 2010 1 10 +8.0
2 +31.5 2 11 +7.3
3 +17.3 3 12 +5.3
4 +12.4 4 2010 1 +0.1
5 +16.3 5 2 -1.7
6 +11.9 6 3 -2.6
7 +16.2 7 4 +0.6
8 +14.9 8 5 +2.2
9 +15.8 9 6 +5.5
10 +19.7 10 7 +7.4
11 +15.4 11 8 +8.5
12 +15.9* 12 9 +8.0*
Notes
* Provisional figures.
(1) The rate is calculated by comparing the monthly average index for the 3-month period ending the month in question
with that for the preceding 3-month period, e.g. the rate for the 3 months ending Dec. 2010 is the percentage change
of the average monthly index for Oct., Nov. and Dec. 2010 compared with the average monthly index for Jul., Aug.
and Sep. 2010.
(2) X-11(X-11 ARIMA)X-12 (X-12 ARIMA)X-12X-12X-11X-12/ Starting from January 2009, seasonal adjustment of the volume index of total retail sales is performed using the
X-12 ARIMA method to replace the previous X-11 ARIMA method. Seasonally adjusted figures for past months
have also been revised using the X-12 ARIMA method. The X-12 ARIMA method is an update to the X-11
ARIMA method with enhanced modelling and diagnostic capabilities. The X-12 ARIMA method has now become
a standard method used by statistical offices for performing seasonal adjustment of statistical series in many
countries/territories.
Seasonally adjusted series may be revised as more data become available. For retail sales index, the seasonally
adjusted series for the preceding three years are revised each year when the figures for January become available.
(3) 2.0All the retail sales statistics are compiled based on the HSIC Version 2.0.
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90
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12/07 3/08 6/08 9/08 12/08 3/09 6/09 9/09 12/09 3/10 6/10 9/10 12/10
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0 0
: Key : Original series Seasonally adjusted series
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12/07 3/08 6/08 9/08 12/08 3/09 6/09 9/09 12/09 3/10 6/10 9/10 12/10
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: Key : Original series Seasonally adjusted series
Chart 1 Value index of total retail sales100)
(Average of monthly indices from October 2004 to September 2005=100)
Chart 2 Volume index of total retail sales
Value Index
Value Index
Volume Index
Volume Index
100) (Average of monthly indices from October 2004 to September 2005=100)
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2.0
1.1
Survey methodology
Survey coverage
The Monthly Survey of Retail Sales (MRS)
covers all retail establishments in Hong Kong.
Starting from January 2009 round, the Hong Kong
Standard Industrial Classification (HSIC) Version 2.0
has been adopted in place of HSIC Version 1.1 for
classifying the economic activities of retail
establishments.
With the existing classification of retail outlets,
the overlapping of commodity coverage among
different outlet types should not be considerable in
most cases. However, for department stores, because
of the very nature of their operating characteristics,
overlapping with the other outlet types is much greater
in terms of commodity coverage. Care should betaken about this when interpreting the retail sales
statistics in this report.
2.0
It should be noted that some establishments
originally classified as retail outlets under the old
version of HSIC may be re-classified into other retail
outlet types or may even no longer be classified as
retail trade after the implementation of HSIC Version
2.0. For details of the changes in coverage of each
retail outlet type, readers may refer to Appendices A
and B which present the revised coverage of each
retail outlet type and a concordance table for types of
retail outlets under the old and new classifications
respectively.
Sample design
A stratified rotational replicate sample design is
adopted for the survey.
Retail establishments are first stratified by type
and then by employment size. Within each stratum, agiven number of replicates are created. Sample size in
each replicate is determined by Neymans Allocation
according to the desired level of precision for the
estimated sales values for various retail outlet types.
For each month, three replicates are used, with one
new replicate rotated in and one old replicate rotated
out. A total of around 3 000 retail establishments are
selected for enumeration for each reference month.
Data collection
For each survey round, questionnaires are
mailed to sampled establishments. Data are collected
by post, supplemented by telephone or face-to-face
enumeration and verification as necessary. An
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electronic template of the questionnaire is also
available upon request to facilitate completion and
submission of the questionnaire by email.
Points to note in analysing retail sales statistics
The retail sales statistics presented in this report
cover consumer spending on goods but not on
services. Moreover, they include spending on goods
by visitors in Hong Kong but not by Hong Kong
residents outside Hong Kong. Hence they should not
be regarded as a comprehensive indicator of overall
consumer spending. In this context, it may be noted
that the share of consumer spending on services in
overall consumer spending has been increasing over
time.
Users interested in the trend of overall consumer
spending should refer to the data series of privateconsumption expenditure (PCE), which is a major
component of the Gross Domestic Product. Compiled
from a wide range of data sources, PCE covers
consumer spending on both goods (including goods
purchased from all channels) and services by Hong
Kong residents whether domestically or abroad.
Statistics on retail sales by type of retail outlet
contained in this report are outlet statistics, not
commodity statistics. Hence, for example, statistics on
clothing, footwear and allied products do not relate
to the total sales of clothing, footwear and allied
products, but to the total sales in those shops selling
such commodities either as the only items or as the
principal items. Sales figures for those outlets may
therefore include other commodities. Conversely,
some sales of clothing, footwear and allied products
may have been subsumed in the sales figures for other
outlets (such as supermarkets, where some minor
clothing and footwear items are also available).
The volume of retail sales is derived from the
value of retail sales after adjusting for price changes.
The relevant components of the Consumer Price Index
are used as deflators.
Classification of retail outlets
Since 1990, the HSIC has been adopted for
classifying the economic activities of establishments in
Hong Kong. The HSIC is devised using the
International Standard Industrial Classification of AllEconomic Activities Revision 2 (ISIC Rev. 2) as a
framework with local adaptation to reflect the structure
of the Hong Kong economy. It is a statistical
classification framework for classifying economic
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units into industry classes based on their major
economic activities. This framework not only
provides a basic stratification for sample selection of
economic units in various surveys, but also serves as a
standard industrial classification in Hong Kong for
compilation, analysis and dissemination of statistics by
economic activities.
The classification of retail establishments in the
MRS also follows the HSIC. To facilitate analysis of
the short-term business performance of the local retail
sector, the industry classes of the retail sector have
been grouped into 20 retail outlet types, taking into
account their importance in the retail sector.
1.1 2.0 2.0
The HSIC has been reviewed from time to time
to reflect significant changes in the structure of the
Hong Kong economy and the emergence of new
economic activities. HSIC Version 1.1 wasimplemented in 2001 and in order to bring HSIC more
up-to-date on local economic activities as well as to
foster international comparability of official statistics
for different users, a full-scale revision exercise was
completed in 2008. The revised HSIC, i.e. HSIC
Version 2.0, was released in October 2008. HSIC
Version 2.0 is being used progressively in different
surveys by the Census and Statistics Department (C&SD)
starting from 2009. Readers may refer to the feature
article Revision of the Hong Kong Standard
Industrial Classification published in the November
2008 issue of the Hong Kong Monthly Digest of
Statistics for more details on the revision of HSIC.
2.0
Starting from the reference month of
January 2009, the retail sales statistics are compiled
based on the HSIC Version 2.0.
1.1 2.0 2.0 : (852) 2802 1258 [email protected]
Backcasted series of new retail sales statistics
Parallel coding of the industry classes ofestablishments covered in the MRS, one under the
HSIC Version 1.1 and the other under the HSIC
Version 2.0, was undertaken in different survey rounds
in the reference year of 2008. Based on the 2008
survey data with dual classifications, the series of
retail sales statistics under HSIC Version 2.0 has been
backcasted to the base period (i.e. October 2004 to
September 2005). Readers who are interested in the
backcasted series or have enquiries about the survey
results may contact the Distribution Services Statistics
Section of the C&SD (Tel: (852) 2802 1258 or E-mail:[email protected]).
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