Haydock Sprint Cup & Old
Borough Cup
Trends & Pedigree
Analysing the 2014 Haydock
Sprint Cup & Old Borough Cup
from an alternative viewpoint
Guide by Badly Drawn Horse
www.badlydrawnhorse.co.uk
Old Borough Cup (Class 2 Handicap)
6th
September – 3:15
Haydock
Old Borough Cup: Winners Trends Analysis
This section compiles the important trends of the past 9 winners of the Old Borough Cup so
that we can apply them to this year’s entries.
Old Borough Cup Trends
1 9/9 had an OR of 90 - 101
2 9/9 had won over at least 12f
3 9/9 were IRE or GB bred
4 8/9 had recorded a top 3 finish on 1 of their last 3 starts
5 8/9 had no more than 18 previous career starts
6 8/9 ran in class 2 or 3 handicap last time out
7 7/9 were aged 3, 4 or 5
8 7/9 carried 9-3 or less to victoy
9 7/9 were drawn in stall 8 or higher
10 7/9 recorded a top 4 finish last time out
11 7/9 had 2, 3 or 4 previous career victories
12 7/9 had between 1 & 3 previous handicap victories
2014 Old Borough Cup Entries: Trends Applied
This section applies the important trends of the past 9 winners of the old Borough Cup to
this year’s entrants.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Tot
GLENARD Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y 12/12
HAVANA COOLER Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y Y 11/12
HASSLE Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y Y 11/12
EPSOM HILL Y Y N Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y 11/12
NAUTILUS Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N N Y Y Y 10/12
QUEST FOR MORE N Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y 10/12
GOODWOOD MIRAGE Y N Y Y Y N Y N Y Y Y Y 9/12
NOVIRAK N Y Y Y Y Y N Y N Y Y Y 9/12
ARAMIST N Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y N 9/12
BIG THUNDER Y Y Y N Y Y Y Y Y N N N 8/12
COMMUNICATOR Y Y Y Y N Y N Y N N Y Y 8/12
SHREWD N Y Y N Y Y Y Y N N Y Y 8/12
EAGLE ROCK N Y Y Y N Y N Y Y N Y Y 8/12
CHANCERY Y Y N N N Y N Y Y N Y Y 7/12
LADY KASHAAN N Y Y Y N Y Y Y Y N N N 7/12
SAPTAPADI N Y Y Y N Y N Y Y N N N 6/12
BE PERFECT N Y N Y N N Y Y N Y N Y 6/12
Trend Follower(s) – GLENARD
Old Borough Cup: Winners Pedigree Analysis
This section compiles the *Dosage trends of the past 9 winners of the Melrose Stakes and
applies them to this year’s entries.
*Dosage is a powerful statistical analysis tool that is used to dissect a horse’s pedigree.
DP 9/9 had 8 points or more in their DP
7/9 had 16 points or more in their DP
DI 8/9 had a DI of 0.78 or above
7/9 had a DI of 0.88 or above
CD 8/9 had a CD of -0.13 or above
7/9 had a CD of 0.00 or above
DPA (6/9) - DQ - 2 / 20+ - 3 / PATB - 1
2014 Old Borough Cup Entries: Dosage Applied
Here the runners are split in 4 groups based on their Dosage strength for the race –
Snug Fit
BE PERFECT 9-1-10-2-2 DQ 24 1.67 0.54
CHANCERY 7-1-9-1-2 PATB 20 1.67 0.50
SAPTAPADI 2-16-7-4-1 DQ 30 2.53 0.47
NOVIRAK 6-1-11-0-2 20+ 20 1.67 0.45
GOODWOOD MIRAGE 4-2-10-2-0 / 18 1.57 0.44
GLENARD 3-3-17-1-0 20+ 24 1.53 0.33
EAGLE ROCK 4-1-10-4-1 DQ 20 1.00 0.15
COMMUNICATOR 3-2-13-6-0 20+ 24 0.92 0.08
Can’t be discounted
SHREWD 3-1-8-0-0 / 12 2.00 0.58
ARAMIST 2-2-9-0-1 / 14 1.55 0.29
Not ideal
NAUTILUS 7-2-9-0-0 / 18 3.00 0.89
HAVANA COOLER 7-0-19-12-0 20+ 38 0.77 0.05
QUEST FOR MORE 3-1-11-7-0 20+ 22 0.76 0.00
LADY KASHAAN 2-1-12-4-1 DQ 20 0.82 -0.05
HASSLE 4-2-25-14-1 DQ 46 0.67 -0.13
Wide of the mark
BIG THUNDER 3-0-9-3-3 / 18 0.71 -0.17
EPSOM HILL 2-0-14-4-2 20+ 22 0.69 -0.18
2014 Old Borough Cup: Pace & Draw analysis
Here we take a look at the race from a Pace & Draw angle –
There should be plenty enough pace on here with BE PERFECT, NAUTILUS and EAGLE
ROCK all potential front-runners. The vast majority of the field will be sitting out the back
waiting to pounce late.
Here is the how the past 9 winners of the race have run in the race –
Running Style fr-0 / cp-3 / hu-6
Draw Horse RS Running Style
1 COMMUNICATOR HU/CP HU/CP
2 NOVIRAK HU/CP HU/CP
3 QUEST FOR MORE CP/HU CP/HU
4 BE PERFECT FR/CP FR/CP
5 SHREWD CP/HU CP/HU
6 ARAMIST CP CP
7 NAUTILUS FR/CP FR/CP
8 CHANCERY HU HU
9 LADY KASHAAN CP/HU CP/HU
10 SAPTAPADI HU HU
11 EPSOM HILL CP CP
12 GOODWOOD MIRAGE HU HU
13 GLENARD CP CP
14 HASSLE HU/CP HU/CP
15 EAGLE ROCK CP/FR CP/FR
16 HAVANA COOLER HU HU
17 BIG THUNDER CP/HU CP/HU
HU CP FR
COMMUNICATOR
NOVIRAK
QUEST FOR MORE BE PERFECT
CHANCERY SHREWD ARAMIST NAUTILUS
SAPTAPADI LADY KASHAAN
GOODWOOD MIRAGE EPSOM HILL
HASSLE GLENARD
HAVANA COOLER BIG THUNDER EAGLE ROCK
Old Borough Cup Summary
Dosage & Trends COMBINED shortlist (Total possible score 13)
GLENARD – 13/13
HAVANA COOLER – 11/13 – Already a UT bet
HASSLE – 11/13
EPSOM HILL – 11/13
NAUTILUS – 10/13
QUEST FOR MORE – 10/13
Most likely winner
GLENARD (C Hills) – This improving 4-Y-O comes here off the back of a career best effort
at York and he looks to have a strong chance of continuing the progression here. Bar one
blip at Haydock earlier in the year he has been showing consistent form this term and he
looks worth another go at this 14f trip (previous form of 63 at trip). Ground will be fine for
him, he has a fine record at this class level (14581), runs well in 12+ runner fields (14581),
has solid form when returning within 15 days (2213) and has a strong Aug/Sept record
(11146).
Alternative(s)
EPSOM HILL (C Fellows) – This 3-Y-O is improving at a rate of knots and the 3-Y-O
allowance he gets here could make him a very dangerous proposition. This is another step
up in trip but he threatens to be even better over further and he is one I want on my side in
this.
Sprint Cup (Group 1)
6th
September – 3:50
Haydock
Sprint Cup: Winners Trends Analysis
This section compiles the important trends of the past 15 winners of the Sprint Cup so that
we can apply them to this year’s entries.
Sprint Cup Trends
1 14/15 had recorded a top 2 finish in current season
2 13/15 were aged 3 - 5
3 13/15 ran in a Group race LTO
4 12/15 recorded a top 3 finish LTO
5 12/15 started in the top 3 in the market LTO
6 11/15 had previously finished in the top 3 at Group 1 level
2014 Sprint Cup Entries: Trends Applied
This section applies the important trends of the past 15 winners of the Sprint Cup to this
year’s entrants.
1 2 3 4 5 6 Tot
ES QUE LOVE Y Y Y Y Y N 5/6
GORDON LORD BYRON Y N Y Y Y Y 5/6
MUSIC MASTER Y Y Y Y Y N 5/6
PEARL SECRET Y Y N Y Y Y 5/6
PROFESSOR Y Y Y Y Y N 5/6
SOLE POWER Y N Y Y Y Y 5/6
HOT STREAK Y Y Y N Y Y 5/6
TROPICS Y N N Y Y Y 4/6
ASTAIRE Y Y Y N N Y 4/6
COUGAR MOUNTAIN Y Y Y N Y N 4/6
EXTORTIONIST Y Y Y Y N N 4/6
BACCARAT Y Y N Y N N 3/6
MAAREK Y N Y N N Y 3/6
G FORCE Y Y Y N N N 3/6
MOVIESTA N Y Y N N N 2/6
CASPAR NETSCHER N Y N N N N 1/6
DINKUM DIAMOND Y N N N N N 1/6
Trend Follower(s) – ES QUE LOVE | GORDON LORD BYRON | MUSIC
MASTER | PEAL SECRET | PROFESSOR | SOLE POWER | HOT STREAK
Sprint Cup: Winners Pedigree Analysis
This section compiles the *Dosage trends of the past 15 winners of the Sprint Cup and
applies them to this year’s entries.
*Dosage is a powerful statistical analysis tool that is used to dissect a horse’s pedigree.
DP 14/15 had 12 points or more in their DP
12/15 had 16 points or more in their DP
DI 14/14 had a DI of 1.00 or above
12/14 had a DI of 1.26 or above
1/14 had a DI above 3.00
CD 13/14 had a CD of 0.06 or above
11/14 had a CD of 0.25 or above
1/14 had a CD above 0.75
DPA (10/15) - DQ - 4 / 20+ - 6 / PATB - 0
2014 Sprint Cup Entries: Dosage Applied
Here the runners are split in 4 groups based on their Dosage strength for the race –
Snug Fit
PROFESSOR 4-3-9-0-0 / 16 2.56 0.69
MOVIESTA 4-9-17-0-0 20+ 30 2.53 0.57
GORDON LORD BYRON 3-3-10-0-0 / 16 2.20 0.56
COUGAR MOUNTAIN 6-4-19-1-0 20+ 30 1.86 0.50
G FORCE 3-2-11-0-0 / 16 1.91 0.50
HOT STREAK 4-2-14-0-0 20+ 20 1.86 0.50
Can’t be discounted
EXTORTIONIST 2-2-4-0-0 / 8 3.00 0.75
MAAREK 2-5-7-0-0 / 14 3.00 0.64
ES QUE LOVE 1-2-5-0-0 / 8 2.20 0.50
BACCARAT 1-1-5-1-0 / 8 1.29 0.25
MUSIC MASTER 2-1-7-2-0 / 12 1.18 0.25
ASTAIRE 0-2-10-0-0 / 12 1.40 0.17
Not ideal
SOLE POWER 4-0-4-0-0 / 8 3.00 1.00
PEARL SECRET 1-8-2-0-1 / 12 5.00 0.67
TROPICS 6-5-9-0-0 20+ 20 3.44 0.85
DINKUM DIAMOND 1-2-10-1-2 PATB 16 1.00 -0.06
Wide of the mark
CASPAR NETSCHER 2-0-8-4-0 / 14 0.75 0.00
2014 Sprint Cup: Pace & Draw analysis
Here we take a look at the race from a Pace & Draw angle –
Lack of any real front-runners make this a tricky race to assess on a pace angle. ASTAIRE
may be the most likely to try and lead so that may just spin it in favour of the middle to low
stalls. HOT STREAK has also at times been a prominent runner and he could be another
that helps force it for the high numbers.
Here is the how the past 15 winners of the race have run in the race –
Running Style fr-3 / cp-4 / hu-8
Draw Horse RS Running Style
1 DINKUM DIAMOND CP/HU CP/HU
2 CASPAR NETSCHER HU/CP HU/CP
3 MAAREK HU/CP HU/CP
4 BACCARAT CP/HU CP/HU
5 COUGAR MOUNTAIN CP/HU CP/HU
6 EXTORTIONIST HU/CP HU/CP
7 ES QUE LOVE CP CP
8 SOLE POWER HU HU
9 G FORCE HU/CP HU/CP
10 MOVIESTA HU/CP HU/CP
11 TROPICS CP/HU CP/HU
12 MUSIC MASTER CP/HU CP/HU
13 ASTAIRE FR/CP FR/CP
14 PROFESSOR HU/CP HU/CP
15 PEARL SECRET HU/CP HU/CP
16 HOT STREAK CP CP
17 GORDON LORD BYRON CP/HU CP/HU
HU CP FR
DINKUM DIAMOND
CASPAR NETSCHER
MAAREK BACCARAT
COUGAR MOUNTAIN
EXTORTIONIST ES QUE LOVE
SOLE POWER
G FORCE
MOVIESTA
TROPICS
MUSIC MASTER
PROFESSOR ASTAIRE
PEARL SECRET
HOT STREAK
GORDON LORD BYRON
Sprint Cup Summary
Dosage & Trends COMBINED shortlist (Total possible score 8)
PROFESSOR – 7/8
GORDON LORD BYRON – 7/8
HOT STREAK – 7/8
COUGAR MOUNTAIN – 6/8
ES QUE LOVE – 6/8
Most likely winner
GORDON LORD BYRON (T Hogan) – The signs are that the 6-Y-O has had his season built
around a repeat bid at this and by my reckoning he has an excellent chance of grabbing
back to back Sprint Cups. We know he loves Haydock (1st & 2nd in last 2 renewals of this)
and 6f is spot on for him (5 career wins at the trip). He is adaptable with underfoot
conditions, is a triple G1 winner, 8 of his career wins have come on a flat track and jockey
Wayne Lordan has a superb record of 221112 on the beast. Add that to the fact 8 of his
career wins have come after a similar break of between 8 – 30 days and the horse has super
robust Aug/Sept/Oct form of 232512121311272 then we have a real live contender to take
down Sole Power. Given that there are questions marks over Sole Power staying the trip I
would expect GLB to press on early as he has winning form over 7f & 8f; he may well just
draw the sting out of the power!
Alternative(s)
HOT STREAK (K Ryan) – I’m not yet fully convinced that he doesn’t handle 6f and if he is going
to land a decent race at the trip it will be on a flat track like Haydock. He doesn’t have all
that much to find based on his Group 1 form this season and he is still young enough to
have improvement to make into a proper Group 1 player.
PROFESSOR (R Hannon) – If there is to be a shock in this then I think it will come from this
lad. I can’t quite fathom the jockey booking but Chris Hayes is a G1 winning jock and it’s
noticeable that he comes over here for the 1 ride. We know the horse likes Haydock (3 from
4 at track) and 6 furlongs (2 from 2 over C&D) and he does love coming late off big fields
(form of 1432 in 14+ fields). He has to step up a fair bit here but a big field blitz may allow
him to do just that.
Only ever bet what you are happy to lose. Never put more on than you usually would just because you are winning.
Please undertake sensible betting practices at all times.
Visit www.gambleaware.co.uk to find out more about gambling.
Please note that past performance should not be taken as a guarantee of future performance.
www.badlydrawnhorse.co.uk
Top Related