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China inflation and good Asian buying brought up the precious
metals overnight. However gold lost a little ground this
morning as the Portuguese bind auction was well received and
lowered concerns on the Euro crisis. Good ETF buying in
PGMs continue to support the current rally in those metals while
palladium leads the way busting back over 800. Credit
Suisse analyst today announced expectations of Pd to reach
1,200 and Pt 2,200 by 2013. Silver has also diverged from
gold and its very good industrial demand coupled with its job as
the poor man’s gold have it gaining on the day so far. One chartist informed me that if gold does not break above 1387
we may see a small correction to 1348. We believe
that if it does make that move it may be a good buying
opportunity.
still maintain that Gold will see 1500 -1680 this year, but must
keep a weekly close above the 30 week moving average
(currently 1300), Preferably no greater intra-week violation
greater than 1/2%, in this case no lower than 1293.Only a daily
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close below 1345 would invite a retest of the 30 week moving
average, currently at 1300, the last crucial support
Gold has first resistance on Thursday at 1388-1396
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GOLD and SILVER CHARTS (SCROLL DOWN)
The daily gold chart shows the neutrality of the short term. RSI and
WIlliams%R bottomed on Friday with the price low and have been
trending up. MACD's oversold condition in October has greatly
improved as well. The GREEN arrows show the be spot gold is at in
relation to the moving averages. The bounce this week has been back
to the averages --- and it is fast becoming decision time for the short
term. The moving averages have all compacted together and the 17,34,
and 50 day averages are within 7 dollars of each other.
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Gold on a longer term daily basis shows how price is trying to recover
from a FOUR PEAK scenario.
GOLD STOCKS (BELOW)-- HUI INDEX
The HUI held key support and has bounced off the support line.
Resistance is the 561- 570 area where the moving averages reside. The
short term trend is down but as long as the HUI holds 520 -- the
medium term trend is still intact. PRICE must get back above the short
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term moving average -- and the blue line needs to get back on top to
set the shorter trends back up.
The seasonal chart Played out pretty well in December. We had a peak
after the first week -- a two week consolidation and a strong final
week.
Upcoming January usually has a drop-up-drop and hard finish. It looks
like the first drop portion may have ended or is due to end by next
week. The seasonal shows a move up into next week. Lets see if Friday
was the low.
Of particular note ---- is the WINTER SEASONAL DROP COMING
due in this time zone. The CHINESE NEW YEAR BEGINS FEB
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3RD. Last year --- the gold low was EARLY FEBRUARY......and then
one more dip in March but not as low. Has the Chinese New Year
shortened the Winter Seasonal cycle? It did last year. Something to
keep in mind as the new year kicks in.
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GOLD SEASONAL CHART FOR 21st Century GOLD
BULLMARKET
This chart is how things have played out during the BULL MARKET
YEARS. Note we are arriving at the weakest part of the cycle.
Silver (using the ETF- SLV) (trades 60 cents lower than spot silver).
SIlver turned the corner on Tuesday -- and fought all day with the
moving averages for the second day running. The Blue line is above
the red line by a hair --- and so is price. Any close above the moving
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averages puts the up trend back in motion. Tomorrow looks like
another key day. LOOK how tight the range is here right at the moving
averages.
averages puts the up trend back in motion. Tomorrow looks like
another key day. LOOK how tight the range is here right at the moving
averages.
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Silver Spot Market -- The sideways action we've seen in silver is
depicted below.
The silver rally below shows this pullback did not quite reach the 50
day average -- and the bounce into Wednesday was back to the moving
averages. RSI and WILLIAMS%R turned back up. The key test now is
the moving averages. Silver needs to close above 29.62-29.92 to
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neutralize the downtrend. Short term cycles are not due to bottom until
next week -- and that leaves us a bit cautious -- as to whether there is
one more leg here before the final low. Closes above the
When do the Silver highs usually occur during the Year ?
Jan/Feb is the favored candidate.
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US Dollar
The Dollar got as high as 81.30 --- but was not able to hurdle above theold high of November. The short term trend remains up as long as
price is in the up trending channel. That 79 area is support as is the
Nov 22nd low at 78. Resistance is the 82 area. The BULL/BEAR
ZONE is critical to the short term trend for the dollar.