www.sneresearch.com Think Energy and Environment!
Global xEV & Battery Market Outlook
SNE Research
Jan. 2021
- Macquarie Securities
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SNE Research
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Main contents
Battery Supply and Demand Forecast2
LIB Materials Market Analysis3
Cost, Price and Profitability4
All Solid-State Battery 5
Issues and TESLA 6
Demand of LIB for EV1
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Introduction
■ Expansion of Battery Market
(Source : SNE Research)
SmartPhone Power Tool E-bike HEV PHEV BEV E- BUS
Product
LIB AverageCapacity
0.01 kWh(4.2V * 3000 mAh
= 12.6Wh)
0.1 kWh(6Ah * 18V=108Wh)
0.5~1.0kWh(36V * 15Ah=540Wh
,10S5P)
1.1~ kWh 11.7~ kWh 33~100 kWh 80~200 kWh
CapacityRatio
1 10 50 100 1,200 5,000 15,000
2015 Sales1,320,000,000 ea 63,600,000 ea 2,500,000 ea 1,690,000 ea 220,000 ea 320,000 ea 120,000 ea
13.2 GWh 6.4 GWh 2.3 GWh 2.0 GWh 2.5 GWh 10.8 GWh 9.3 GWh
2019 Sales1,200,000,000 ea 106,900,000 ea 6,500,000 ea 2,760,000 ea 530,000 ea 1,600,000 ea 77,000 ea
12.0 GWh 10.7 GWh 6.6 GWh 3.3 GWh 6.6 GWh 90.0 GWh 15.0 GWh
2025F Sales1,190,000,000 ea 200,000,000 ea 16,000,000 ea 3,440,000 ea 1,790,000 ea 14,700,000 ea 210,000 ea
11.9 GWh 22.0 GWh 18.0 GWh 4.8 GWh 26.2 GWh 998.6 GWh 39.0 GWh
■ Comparison of LIB capacity by ApplicationTESLA Model-S : 85~100kWhTESLA Model-3 : 60~80kWh
- Smartphone 15,000ea Capacity = E-BUS 1ea Capacity
※ Including of Mild Hybrid
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Introduction
■ Global xEV Market
(Source : SNE Research)
1 2 2 4 6
9 12
15 17
20 24
29 34
1 1 1 1
1 2
2
2 2
3
3
4
4
2 2 2 2
2 2
2
2 2
2
2
2
2
4.1 4.5 4.8 7.1
10.1 12.6
15.5
18.8 21.7
25.2
29.3
34.2
40.0
'18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26 '27 '28 '29 '30
xEV Market Forecast
BEV
PHEV
HEV
34% 36% 37%
52%
64%70% 75% 78% 80% 81% 82% 83% 84%16% 12%
18%
15%
13%12%
11%10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10%
50% 52%45%
33%23%
18% 14% 12% 10% 9% 7% 6% 5%
'18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26 '27 '28 '29 '30
BEV PHEV HEV
※ Excluding Mild Hybrid
Source: <2020.2H> Global xEV market and Battery supply & demand outlook (~2030)
- The global xEV is projected to grow at a CAGR of 21%, expected to be 40 million units by 2030 BEV : It will have a high CAGR of 30%, accounting for 84% of M/S with flagship models in 2030
[million units]
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Introduction
Source: <2020.2H> Global xEV market and Battery supply & demand outlook (~2030)
■ Global xEV Battery Market
(Source : SNE Research)
(Bil.$)
10 12 35
74
117
158
13 14
41
89
143
194
'18 '20 '22 '25 '28 '30
xEV Battery Market Forecast
Commercial
Passenger
75 96 111 228 408 561
756 960
1,166 1,377
1,674 1,981
2,407
25 21 23 38
69 102
147
200
247
300
368
448
549
100 118 134 267
476 663
903
1,160
1,413
1,677
2,042
2,429
2,956
'18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26 '27 '28 '29 '30
xEV Battery Market Forecast
Commercial
Passenger
Cell price basis
(GWh)
- Demand for batteries for xEV will grow at a CAGR of 33%, expected to reach 2,956GWh by 2030100GWh in 2018 → 1,160GWh in 2025 → 2,956GWh in 2030
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Introduction
Source: KRX(Korea Exchange)
■ Rising of Stock price in EV/ Battery fields (KOR)
2019.1 2019.4 2019.7 2019.10 2020.1 2020.4 2020.7 2020.10 CurrencyGrowth
(2019.1~10)Growth
(2020.1~10)
KOSPI 2,206.20 2,248.63 2,129.74 2,093.60 2,267.25 1,947.56 2,267.01 2,403.73 -5% 6%
Cell
LGC 379,000 389,000 361,500 307,500 354,000 376,500 568,000 692,000 Won -19% 95%
SDI 240,000 236,500 249,000 232,500 287,000 286,500 397,500 445,500 Won -3% 55%
SKI 188,500 193,500 177,000 169,000 149,500 100,500 135,500 148,500 Won -10% -1%
Cathode
Ecopro BM 67,000 65,300 52,300 57,300 76,000 144,000 136,100 Won 138%
L&F 36,950 31,850 34,000 23,400 23,900 20,600 40,500 40,300 Won -37% 69%
Cosmo AM&T 17,050 16,000 14,300 8,730 11,100 9,300 15,150 15,350 Won -49% 38%
Posco Chemical 61,800 62,000 55,800 48,850 60,700 53,600 82,900 86,000 Won -21% 42%
AnodeDaejoo Electronic 20,300 18,900 23,150 18,450 19,750 18,700 42,400 46,150 Won -9% 134%
Iljin Electronics 3,525 3,540 3,280 3,175 3,210 2,405 2,860 3,000 Won -10% -7%
Cu Foil
Iljin Materials 41,750 39,150 41,000 39,300 51,200 40,750 52,600 45,450 Won -6% -11%
Doosan Solus 17,800 28,750 34,750 38,500 39,600 Won 38%
SKC 39,300 37,300 44,100 44,800 54,600 53,800 71,400 83,800 Won 14% 53%
Separator Myungsung TNS 19,650 20,450 17,950 14,650 28,750 12,350 16,350 15,200 Won -25% -47%
Electrolyte
Foosung 8,310 8,090 12,100 9,010 9,080 6,950 8,460 10,450 Won 8% 15%
Chunbo 86,300 78,000 67,600 72,300 67,000 123,000 169,400 Won 134%
Dongwha 20,000 19,400 20,200 19,700 18,050 15,100 50,200 42,350 Won -2% 135%
Soulbrain Holdings 51,900 54,700 70,000 90,200 108,100 77,500 95,900 46,400 Won 74% -57%
Other Parts (Cap Assy', PCS, BMS, Charge/
Discharge)
Samwha Capacitor 66,300 66,100 53,500 51,300 61,900 49,550 61,400 56,400 Won -23% -9%
SangA Frontec 19,400 20,050 19,200 16,700 16,900 13,700 48,000 44,250 Won -14% 162%
PNE Solution 12,900 13,900 13,000 10,300 12,300 13,250 21,600 23,200 Won -20% 89%
Sangshin EDP 13,600 10,700 11,100 9,000 9,370 6,350 10,500 13,150 Won -34% 40%
Shinheung SEC 38,100 36,450 43,550 35,800 41,800 31,850 43,700 41,900 Won -6% 0%
Covid19
-28%
KOSPI Avr. 6%
xEV /Battery fields. 48% ↑
67%Avr. 48%↑
- In spite of COVID19, Decline of Oil price , Trade war between USA – China
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Introduction
Source: Investing
■ Stock Price : Traditional OEM vs TESLA In 20’ 2Q, in terms of stock price, TESLA became a global top OEM over Toyota
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
'19 1Q '19 2Q '19 3Q '19 4Q '20 1Q '20 2Q '20 3Q
Tesla
VolksWagen
Toyota
Hyundai
B$ Stock price Comparison of Global OEM
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2019 3Q 2019 4Q 2020 1Q 2020 2Q 2020 3Q
Stock price of CATL Bil.CNY
0
100
200
300
400
500
2019 3Q 2019 4Q 2020 1Q 2020 2Q 2020 3Q
Bil.HKD Stock price of BYD
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1. Demand of LIB for EV
Source: SNE Research referred to the basic frame of McKinsey's COVID-19 scenario and reconstructed to fit the EV market.
Knock-on effects and economic-policy
response(including EV-related policy) BetterWorse
Virus spread
and
public-health
response
Better
Worse
Rapid and effective control of
virus spread
... …
Effective response,
but (regional) virus
recurrence
…
Broad failure of public-
health intervention
… … ...
Ineffective interventions Partially effective interventions Highly effective interventions
GlobalEVMarket
Time
S1: Virus a partial relapse; slow recovery of electric vehicle market
S3: virus effective control;Rapid recovery of electric vehicle market
S2: Virus partial relapse; somewhat delayed recovery of electric
vehicle market
COVID-19, Impact of the Electric Vehicle Market on Public Health and Government Policy Response
GlobalEVMarket
Time
GlobalEVMarket
Time
■ Short-term (2020-2021) Scenario for Global Electric Vehicle Market
- The global electric vehicle market can be developed into the following scenario S1 (slow recovery)
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1. Demand of LIB for EV
■ Analysis of COVID-19 effect to xEV market - Despite the virus impact, the global EV sales and its battery installation grew 10% and 1% respectively by the third quarter of 2020, with the explosive growth of the European market and recovery in all regions from the third quarter.
1 BEV, PHEV in PV2 xEV(BEV, PHEV, HEV)
(Source : SNE Research)
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1. Demand of LIB for EV
Source: <2020.2H> Global xEV market and Battery supply & demand outlook (~2030)
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
'18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26 '27 '28 '29 '30
Demand for electric vehicles by major OEMs
OEM Top10 China Top10 Others Total
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
'18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26 '27 '28 '29 '30
Demand for electric vehicles by major OEMs
OEM Top10 China Top10 Others Total
xEV sales of global Top 10 will grow at a CAGR of 32%, expected to reach 28 million units by 2030Chinese Major Makers' xEV sales will grow at a CAGR of 17%, expected to reach 5.3 million units by 2030
(K Car)
17%
14%
12%
12%
76%
14%10%
12%
78%
10%
OEM Top10 China Top10
(GWh)
M/S 72%→74%
M/S 17%→14%
PHEV+BEVPHEV+BEV
72%(china19%)
74%(china18%)
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1. Demand of LIB for EV
■ VW will become the global top EV sales OEM from 2022.
potential volume
Source: <2020.2H> Global xEV market and Battery supply & demand outlook (~2030)
84 137 370
685
1,124
1,557
2,025
2,591
3,070
3,647
4,362
5,226
6,273
250 376 442 632
822 991
1,206 1,477
1,736 2,054
2,432
2,883
3,419
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
'18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26 '27 '28 '29 '30
Demand for electric vehicles (VW vs Tesla)
VW Tesla
2 5 13 33 65 93 126 163 198 235 288 343 420
20 28 30 43 60 72 90 110 132 157 190 225 274
-
500
'18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26 '27 '28 '29 '30
VW Tesla
(K Car)
(GWh)Battery DayPlan(Tesla Announced)
3,000
100
1,400
2,000
*Tesla Wants To Accomplish By 2020 (2016 Tesla Announced)Realization
#1 Complete its giant Gigafactory ○#2 Bring the Model 3 into production ○#3 Launch a compact SUV dubbed the Model Y by the end of 2019 or early 2020 ▲(‘20.3~)
#4 Tesla will reveal an electric semi truck in September X (delayed)
#5 Reveal an electric pickup truck for consumers before the close of 2019 ○(‘19.11)
#6 Increase the range of Tesla cars to 1200 kilometers per charge X
#7 Make its cars fully autonomous X
#8 Produce 500,000 cars per year by 2018 X
#9 Produce 1 million cars by 2020 X
5001,000
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2. Battery Supply and Demand Forecast
■ M/S Trend of Reading Battery companies- ‘19→’20.5 Kor 16→35%, JPN 25→22%, CN 52→37%
(Source : SNE Research)
M/S Company 2017 2018 2019 1~3Q 2020
1 LGC 8.5% 7.5% 10.5% 24.6%
2 CATL 18.2% 23.4% 27.9% 23.7%
3 Panasonic 16.9% 21.3% 24.4% 19.5%
4 SDI 3.9% 3.5% 3.8% 6.2%
5 BYD 3.2% 11.8% 9.4% 5.5%
6 SKI 0.5% 0.9% 1.7% 4.4%
7 AESC 3.0% 3.7% 3.3% 3.1%
KOR
16%
JPN
25%CN
52%
Others
7% KOR
35%
JPN
22%
CN
37%
Others
6%
2019Y 2020Y
8.5%7.5%
10.5%
24.6%
18.2%
23.4%
27.9%
23.7%
16.9%
21.3%
24.4%
19.5%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
2017 2018 2019 1~3Q 2020
Electric Vehicle Battery Market Share Trend(%)
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2. Battery Supply and Demand Forecast
■ Battery Production Capacity Estimation '18~'30 - Top 6 battery makers will take 60% from the total capacity. (84% of top15 battery makers)- LGC and CATL will be leading player in the market
- If the existing expansion plan of the three Korean battery companies is achieved by 80 to 90 percent,- If Chinese battery makers (Tier1/Tier2) achieve 80 to 100 percent of their existing expansion plans and Tier 3 companies achieve less than 50 percent,- When European new battery companies achieve their existing expansion plans by 50 to 80 percent,
Source: <2020> Line new installation and expansion outlook of Global LIB Battery(~’30)
230 334
502 636
759 907
1,039 1,163
1,417
1,708
2,061
2,512
3,052
46%
61%
55% 56% 56% 55% 54% 53% 53% 55% 57% 58% 60%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
'18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26 '27 '28 '29 '30
Battery Capacity Expansion
Global Top6 Others Total Global Top6 %
M/S Company 2020 2025 2030
GWh M/S GWh M/S GWh M/S
1 LGC 103 20% 189 16% 553 18%
2 CATL 44 9% 149 13% 452 15%
3 Panasonic 54 11% 60 5% 179 6%
4 BYD 32 6% 75 6% 232 8%
5 SDI 24 5% 74 6% 197 6%
6 SKI 19 4% 70 6% 207 7%
Top6 274 55% 617 53% 1,819 60%
39%
53%
60%
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2. Battery Supply and Demand Forecast
■ Battery Production Plan for Major Battery companies- It is expected that production capa will be expanded by major battery companies - NCM will lead the Global market, LFP market in China will be increased.
(Source : SNE Research)
LFPNCM
LFP
Toyota向Tesla向
BYD向,Toyota向,China…
BMW向, FCA向, Porsche向
Daimler向, VW向
VW向,GM向,Renault向,Hyundai向,Volvo向
BMW向, VW向 Tesla向, china…
NCMA mainlyCheap and Low Cobalt Cell
NCM811 mainly(CSG)
NCA mainly
LFP mainly(Blade Cell)
LFP (CTP Cell)
NCM811
NCM, LFP Cell Dualization Strategy(Europe) (Low, China)
Expanded NCMA Application(Cost Savings, Compete with LFP Cells)
NCM811,91⁄2 1⁄2 Application Expansion(Energy Density Increase)
NCA Supply Capa Expansion(Ecopro J/V, internalization)
LFP Weighted (EV/ESS)Battery dispensing, customer expansion (Europe, etc.)
Tesla, Toyota mainly
Suppliers '18 '19 '20 '25 '30
CATL 21 30 44 149 452
CN 21(10) 29(11) 39(18) 79(50) 242(171)
EU 0 1 5 70 210
LGC 21 32 103 189 553
CN 6 10 41 60 189
EU 5 10 44 72 244
KR 7 7 11 20 20
IN 12 20
US 4 5 7 25 80
SKI 3 4 19 70 207
CN 0 0 9 27 80
EU 0 0 5 25 79
KR 3 4 5 5 5
US 0 0 0 13 43
SDI 9 14 24 74 197
CN 3 4 8 23 60
EU 2 3 10 38 109
KR 4 6 6 6 6
US 0 0 0 7 22
BYD 15(4) 28(9) 32(16) 75(45) 232(160)
Panasonic 32 35 54 60 179
Total 230 334 502 1,163 3,052
(Unit : Gwh)
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2. Battery Supply and Demand Forecast
■ The shortage is expected to occur from 2025Y- Based on the actual utilization(70% operation rate), the shortage is expected to occur from 2025Y
[GWh]
112 129 154 296
520 721
978
1,254
1,527
1,811
2,197
2,606
3,159
230 334
502 636
759 907
1,039 1,163
1,417
1,708
2,061
2,512
3,052
105%
160%
227%
115%
46%
26%
6%
△7% △7% △6% △6% △4%△3%
-1
0
1
1
2
2
3
-800.0
-300.0
200.0
700.0
1200.0
1700.0
2200.0
2700.0
3200.0
3700.0
'18 '19 '20F '21F '22F '23F '24F '25F '26F '27F '28F '29F '30F
Global Demand&Supply F/Cast
Demand Supply Balance
Source: <2020.2H> Global xEV market and Battery supply & demand outlook (~2030)
*) Based on 70% utilization rate
*) EV+ESS Market
2025 Shortage!
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2. Battery Supply and Demand Forecast
■ Supply shortage in Europe and other regions(Except China) in 2022Y- China is forecast to be Over Supply
Source: <2020.2H> Global xEV market and Battery supply & demand outlook (~2030)
49 61 87 173
311 450
621
806
987
1,184
1,452
1,745
2,138
66 76 124 164 205 308
408 498
618 760
933
1,147
1,405
35%
25%
43%
△6%
△34%△32%
△34%
△38% △37%△36% △36%
△34% △34%
-1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
-2,500
-2,000
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
'18 '19 '20F '21F '22F '23F '24F '25F '26F '27F '28F '29F '30F
Global(Except China) Demand&Supply F/Cast
Demand Supply Balance
[GWh]
63 68 67 123 208
271 357
449 540
627 745
861
1,022
164 258
378 472
554 598 631 665 798
949
1,129
1,365
1,647
160%
281%
465%
284%
166%
121%77%
48% 48% 51% 51% 58% 61%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%
400%
450%
500%
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
'18 '19 '20F '21F '22F '23F '24F '25F '26F '27F '28F '29F '30F
China Demand&Supply F/Cast
Demand Supply Balance
14 26 47 95 155
221 304
393 477
566 688
817
990
9 16 53 80 114 182
256 328
414 519
650
809
1,000
△36%△41%
12%
△16%
△26%
△18% △16% △17%△13%
△8%△5%
△1%1%
-1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
'18 '19 '20F '21F '22F '23F '24F '25F '26F '27F '28F '29F '30F
Europe Demand&Supply F/Cast
Demand Supply Balance
2022 Shortage!
2022 Shortage!
Oversupply!
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2. Battery Supply and Demand Forecast
■ Battery Demand/Supply Forecast by Type- 2030Y Demand : Cy 11%, Pr 42%, Po 47%- 2030Y Supply : Cy 17%, Pr 46%, Po 37%
61 81 122 136 158 178 202 215 256 298 359 440 528
112 160 209 278 333 391
451 509 630
777
938
1,145
1,390
57 94
172 221
268 337
386 438
530
634
765
927
1,133
230 334
502 636
759
907 1,039
1,163
1,417
1,708
2,061
2,512
3,052
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Cy Pr Po Total
[GWh]
Battery Supply Forecast by Type (~2030)Battery Demand Forecast by Type (~2030)
9 13 18 29 32 28 51 84 112 139 171 202 210 246 289 334
13 23 30 57 67 70 135
238 328
449 581
700 827
988 1,151
1,380
4 6 11 14 19 36 81
155
223
316
409
512
641
807
988
1,241
27 43 59 100 118 134 267
477
663
903
1,160
1,413
1,677
2,042
2,429
2,956
2015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030
Cy Pr Po Total
'18 '20 '23 '25 '28 '30
Cy 27% 24% 20% 19% 17% 17%
Pr 49% 42% 43% 44% 46% 46%
Po 25% 34% 37% 38% 37% 37%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
'18 '20 '23 '25 '28 '30
Cy 29% 21% 17% 15% 12% 11%
Pr 57% 52% 50% 50% 48% 47%
Po 14% 27% 34% 35% 40% 42%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
(Source : SNE Research)
『 by battery type』 『 by battery type 』
[GWh]
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2. Battery Supply and Demand Forecast
- Pouch(Po) : 2022Y Battery Shortage- Prismatic(Pr) : 2024Y Battery Shortage- Cylindrical(Cy) : Battery Oversupply
[ Po Type Demand/Supply (Excluding China) ] [ Pr Type Demand/Supply (Excluding China) ] [ Cy Type Demand/Supply (Excluding China) ]
[ Po Type Demand/Supply (Global) ] [ Pr Type Demand/Supply (Global) ] [ Cy Type Demand/Supply (Global) ]
(Source : SNE Research)
2026 Shortage!
2024 Shortage!
Oversupply!
Oversupply!2024 Shortage!
2022 Shortage!
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■ Li-ion Battery 4 key materials market also expected to grow significantly
- Cathode demand : NCM ↑ , Anode demand : AG ↑, Separator : Wet type ↑
3. LIB Materials Market
(Source : SNE Research)
2018 2020 2025 2028 2030
LIB Cathode Materials
LCO
NCA
NCM
LMO
LFP
Unit :1K ton
2018 2020 2025 2028 2030
LIB Anode Materials
Others
Si
AG
NG
Unit :1K ton
2018 2020 2025 2028 2030
LIB Separator Materials
Wet
Dry
Unit : 0.1Bil m2
2018 2020 2025 2028 2030
LIB Electrolyte Materials
Total
Unit :1K ton
9 14
67
111
154
3 5
28
43
55
1 2
10
15
20
2 3
15
25
35
2018 2020 2025 2028 2030
Cathode Anode Separator Electrolyte
*
Unit : $ Bil
※*) IT+xEV+ESS Market
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3. LIB Materials Market
■ Comparison of Cathode chemistry
LFP has good stability and low price but it has low E/D than NCM. So, it is mainly used for commercial vehicle as it is less restriction on the space. CATL developed CTP technology and it will be helpful to increase the E/D of the LFP battery.
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3. LIB Materials Market
■ Cathode chemistry Development by Cell companytry to develop higher nickel contents for cathode chemistry.
By applying CTP technology, LFP is struggling to hold a certain level of market share.
(Source : SNE Research)
Cell
producer
Cell chemistry
Major issuesCurrent usage
(2019. 6 ~ 2020.7) (MWh)Direction for development
Chemistry Portion
(%)
LGCNCM 622 81 . Focusing on NCMA
. Try to upgrade NCM 811
1) NCM 811
- Thermal stability
- Major usages are NCM 622,
523 and NCA
2) LFP Cost
- Cell To Pack
- Blade Cell
- Possibility to hold a certain
level of market share
3) Nickel Price goes up
NCM 811 16
SDI
NCM 523 84 . Focusing on NCMA
. Try to develop higher nickel contents such as
NCM 811NCM 622(90)+ NCA(10) 15
SKI
NCM 622 44 . Focusing on NCM 811
. Try to develop higher nickel contents such as
NCM 91/21/2NCM 811(50)+ NCM424(50) 56
CATL
LFP 38 . Improving LFP by Cell to Pack
. Considering NCM 622
. Try to overcome the issue of NCM 811NCM 523 41
NCM 811 16
Panasonic NCA 97 . Developing higher nickel contents of chemistry
NCM 523 1
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3. LIB Materials Market
■ Cathode Material Market Demand Forecast (~2030)Cathode material is expected to grow to 5.5M tons. With the growing need for a longer mileage, it is remarkable that the market demand is moving to High-Ni cathode such as NCA(23% in ’30), and High-Ni/NCMA(35% in ’30).
Cathode Material Market Demand Forecast (~2030)
M/S : 8→3%
M/S : 21→21%
M/S : 18→23%
M/S : 7→4%
M/S : 44→14%
M/S : 2→35%
(Source : SNE Research)
Based on xEV
√
√
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3. LIB Materials Market
■ Cathode Material Market Demand Forecast (~2030)Expansion of Capacity as demand for high-nickel Cathode materials for EV
Issue 1: Competition for expansion of High-Ni in Korea
Cathode Maker Main Customer Production Site
LGC In-house LGCKOR, CN
50k→160k(‘25)
Ecopro BM(JV with SDI)
SDI, SKI, MurataKOR
60k→180k(‘25)
Umicore LGC,SDI,AESCKOR, CN, Poland
70k→175k(‘22)
Posco Chemical LGCKOR
40k→70k(‘22)
L&F LGC, SKIKOR, CN
40k→70k(‘23)
Cosmo AM&T SDI KOR, CN
- LGC(NCMA), Ecopro BM(Ni88, Ni92), Posco Chemical(NCMA)Umicore(NCMA), L&F(NCMA), Cosmo(High-Ni) extension investment
Issue 2: Low Cost competition
- Efforts to lower the cost of Cathode materials, precursor processing and CAPEX to lower battery cost
- Securing suppliers to lower metal prices with raw materials (Glencore et al.)
- Korea NCM vs China LFP Price Competitiveness- Active preparation for recycling raw materials through battery
recycling(Pohang Special Zone, etc.)
24.9 23.6 22.519.9 19.1 18.7
9.07.2 5.7
2018.3Q 2019.3Q 2020.3Q
Cathode Material Price ($/kg)
NCM811
NCM523
NCM111
LFP
[Cathode Supply Capa Expansion Competition]
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
‘19 ‘20 ‘21 ’22 ‘23 ‘24 ‘25
LGC Ecopro Umicore Posco L&F Cosmo
[k ton]
(Source : SNE Research)
Customer (KOR)
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3. LIB Materials Market
■ Anode Material Market Demand Forecast (~2030)Increasing demand for Artificial Graphite(AG), Si anode
Source: <2020> LIB Main 4 Components Market Analysis and Supplier Status
Issue 2: Increased demand for High Capacity Si Anode
Issue 1: Increased demand for AG for EVAnode Material Market Demand Forecast (~2030)
- Better Life Cycle and Power characteristics than NG- China companies (BTR, Shanshan) and Japan (Hitachi) leading the market
- Battery companies adopt silicon cathode materials to increase energy density and improve fast charging characteristics.
Company Country Type
Daejoo Electronics KOR SiOx
Tera Technos KOR SiOx
Shin-Etsu JPN SiOx
BTR CN SiOx
Osaka titanium JPN SiOx
LPN KOR Si-C
BTR CN Si-C
Group 14 USA Si-C
Sila nano USA Si-C
105 123 151
307
441 556
641
772 890
983 1,036
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Posco
Shinzoom
Sinuo
XFH
Kaijin
Mitsubishi
Putailai
Zichen
Shanshan
Hitachi
BTR
(Source : SNE Research)
101 112 194
308
482
679
911
1,149
1,292 1,423
1,524 1,549 1,595
'18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26 '27 '28 '29 '30
Gr Si
Based on xEV
IT, xEV, ESS(Total)
Target Performance
E/D
Fast Charge
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3. LIB Materials Market
■ Separator Market Demand Forecast (~2030)Increasing demand for Wet type, EU region
37 40 41 55 82
106 132
159 183
209 240
275 316
-
100
200
300
400
'18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26 '27 '28 '29 '30
Wet Dry Total
* LIB Separator Demand Market- As the xEV battery market grows, The separator for LIB demand market is
also growing rapidly. It is expected to be 31.6Bil m2 in ’30.
[Unit: 0.1Bil m2]
[LIB Separator Demand Forecast]
* LIB Separator Supply Issue- Major suppliers are in the process of aggressive expansion plans globally.
[Supply Capa Expansion Competition]
-
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
'18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25
SKIET
TORAY
ASAHI
W-SCOPE
SEMCORP
SENIOR
Major Suppliers: Plan to go to the EU for expansion
Source: SNE Research (Source : SNE Research)
[LIB Separator Demand by Application Forecast]
37 40 41 55
82 106
132 159
183 209
240
275 316
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
'18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26 '27 '28 '29 '30
Small xEV ESS Total
[Unit: 0.1Bil m2]
www.sneresearch.com Think Energy and Environment! 27/45
1,081 1,169
5,358
8,912
14,528
19,795
2019 2020 2023 2025 2028 2030
Others
America
EU
China
3. LIB Materials Market
[Mil $]
Electrolyte Market Demand Forecast (~2030) Issue 1: Rising M/S of Chinese Companies
Issue 2: Stabilized supply and demand balance
- M/S of electrolyte companies such as Tianqi and Capchem is expected to continue to increase at low prices
- Today, supply is 307% more than the demand amount- By 2025 the balance between supply and demand is expected
to be normalized (105%).
■ Electrolyte Market Demand Forecast (~2030)Increasing demand for China & EU region
Source: SNE Research
Electrolyte Market is expected to grow from 2019’s 1 Billion$ market to 20 Billion $ market by 2030 (CAGR: 29%)
307%
381%
248%
163% 135%112% 105%
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Demand
Supply
Balance
China,
54%
Korea,
12%
Japan,
24%
2018
China,
65%
Korea,
16%
Japan,
14%
2025
www.sneresearch.com Think Energy and Environment! 28/45
3. LIB Materials Market
■ 4 Key Material Market Demand Forecast Technology Trend – Material RoadmapKorean battery maker’s development roadmap also reflects the LIB development trend.
Source: SNE Research
(Source : SNE Research)
* Direction of development of battery cells to meet the requirements of automakers
2019 2021 2023 2025 Direction of Battery Cell Development
Energy Density↑ 260Wh/kg620Wh/L
280Wh/kg650Wh/L
310Wh/kg750Wh/L
330Wh/kg800Wh/L
· Cathode : high-loading, high-nickel(NCA, NCM, NCMA)Conductive materials(CNT)
· Anode : Si-Anode, Conductive materials(CNT)
Long Life Cycle 800 Cycle 900 Cycle 1000 Cycle 1000 Cycle
· Minimize cell electrode structural deformation
· Cathode: Conductive materials(CNT), LFP
· Special electrolyte salts: LiPO2F2, LiDFOP, LiFSI
Fast Charge 2.0C 2.5C 3.0C 3.5C
· Cathode: Conductive materials(CNT)
· Anode: Si-Anode(low loading), Conductive materials(CNT)
· Special electrolyte salts: LiPO2F2, LiDFOP, LiFSI
Cost Down 110$/kWh 90$/kWh 80$/kWh 75$/kWh · Cathode: high loading, high-Nickel(low Cobalt), LFP(Cobalt-free)
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△100%
△80%
△60%
△40%
△20%
0%
20%
40%
'18.1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q '19.1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q '20.1Q '20.2Q '20.3Q
Profit Trend
LGC SDI SKI CATL
4. Cost, Price and Profitability
■ Financial Performance of Major Battery Suppliers- Samsung and LG's operating profits have turned to surplus since 2020.3Q
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
'18.1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q '19.1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q '20.1Q '20.2Q '20.3Q
Revenue Trend
LGC SDI SKI CATL
Revenue (Mil. $)
(Source : SNE Research)
www.sneresearch.com Think Energy and Environment! 30/45
4. Cost, Price and Profitability
■ Financial Performance of Major Battery Suppliers- Battery sales prices will continue to fall
Shipment(MWh)
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
'18.1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q '19.1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q '20.1Q '20.2Q '20.3Q
Shipment Trend
LGC SDI SKI CATL
100
150
200
250
300
350
'18.1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q '19.1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q '20.1Q '20.2Q '20.3Q
Price Trend
LGC SDI SKI CATL
Sales Price($/kWh)
(Source : SNE Research)
www.sneresearch.com Think Energy and Environment! 31/45
0
5
10
15
20
25
LGC SDI SKI CATL
4. Cost, Price and Profitability
■ Financial Performance Forecast of Major Battery Suppliers- Financial performance of Korean suppliers will be improved in a few years.
(Source : SNE Research)
[Sales]
* Source : SNE Research Market Data
[Operation Profit]
[Unit: Billion USD]
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2018 2019 2023 2025
LGC SDI SKI CATL
▲6%
10%
7%
7%
9%
8%
8%
▲91%
▲2%
13%10%
▲45%
7%
6%
▲20% ▲9%
www.sneresearch.com Think Energy and Environment! 32/45
4. Cost, Price and Profitability
Source: Press and SNE Research Estimated
[Unit: Bil. USD]
[Total Estimated Order Scale by Tier-1] [Global OEMs by Battery Supply channel]
■ Global xEV Battery OEM Project Plan List
- Major suppliers have significant order backlogs.
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4. Cost, Price and Profitability
Source: Press and SNE Research Estimated
■ Global xEV Battery Supply Status (OEM Project Plan List)
- Major OEMs have diversified battery suppliers.
OEM LGC SDI SKI CATL Panasonic
Audi 70% 30%
BMW 10% 50% 40%
Daimler 20% 50% 30%
Porsche 100%
R-N 70% 30%
Volvo 100%
VW 50% 30% 20%
PSA 100%
Ford 80% 20%
GM 100%
Tesla 30% 20% 50%
Honda 70% 30%
Toyota 100%
HKMC 30% 50% 20%
[Estimated Order Portion by OEMs]
*Note: Approximate figures
70%
10%
20%
100%
70%
100%
50%
80%
100%
30%
30%
30%
50%
50%
30%
20%
50%
40%
30%
30%
20%
100%
20%
70%
20%
50%
30%
100%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Audi
BMW
Daimler
Porsche
R-N
Volvo
VW
PSA
Ford
GM
Tesla
Honda
Toyota
HKMC
LGC SDI SKI CATL Panasonic
E-GMP SOP Order Volume LGC SKI CATL SDI
1st ‘20~’22 $8.8bil 1200k $8.8bil
2nd ‘22~ $10.5bil 5200k $6.1bil $4.4bil
3rd ‘27~ $26.4bil 9200k Bidding Competition
* HKMC E-GMP- LGC, SKI, CATL : 1st and 2nd orders, Participation SDI for 3rd
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- Battery prices for EV are down to 5 to 6 percent on average- Cell : △5%, Pack: △6%- Cell To Pack technology is expected to start expanding in ‘21- ICE Price Parity: Based on pack price of 100$/kWh, year of parity might be expected to reach in ’23
Source: SNE Research
122
105 100 92
85 80 78 76 74 72 69 67 65
159
137 128
117 106
96 94 91 88 86 83 81 78
'18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26 '27 '28 '29 '30
Cell Pack
ICE Price Parity
4. Cost, Price and Profitability
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5. All Solid-State Battery
Research activities conducted by some OEMs and major battery makers(Toyota and VW…)
Source: <2020> Technology Status and Market Outlook for All Solid-State Battery (~2030)
system major research
Lithium Sulfidebattery
Cathode : SulferAnode : Li MetalSolid Electrolyte
LGC, SDI, SKI, SAIT, Toyota, Idemitsu, Hitachi Zosen Panasonic, CATL …
Lithium Metalbattery
Cathode : AllAnode : Li MetalSolid Electrolyte
HKMC, LGC, SDI, SKI, SAIT, Solid Energy …
All-Solid state battery
Cathode : Solid (Metal) Anode : Solid (Metal)Electrolyte : SolidSolid Electrolyte
LGC, SDI, SKI, SAIT, Quantum Scape, CATL, VW, BMW …
Lithium Air Battery
Cathode : Air Anode : Li MetalCatalyst
SAIT, Hyundai motors, KIST …
Solid Electrolyte system major research
Sulfide-based(1-x)Li2S-xP2S5
(LGPS…)
Toyota, Idemitsu, Hitachi Zosen, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Solid Power,, CIS, Chenbo…
Oxide-basedLi7La3Zr2O12 …(LiPON, LLZO, LLTO …)
Murata, Ohara, Taiyo Yuden, FDKUnist , Sevenking, Prologium…
Polymer-basedPEO (poly ethylene oxide)
Sony(Murata), Sekisui, EnervateSolid Energy, Blue Solution…
Mass Production
(Sulfide)
delayed
(Sulfide)
(Sulfide)
(Sulfide, ASSB)
(Sulfide) (Sulfide)
(Oxide) (Oxide) (Oxide)
(Sulfide)
(Polymer)
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5. All Solid-State Battery
(Sulfide)
delayed
(Sulfide)
(Sulfide)
(Sulfide, ASSB)
(Sulfide) (Sulfide)
(Oxide) (Oxide) (Oxide)
(Sulfide)
Mass Production
(Polymer)
Source: Inter Battery and Roadmap Data for 2020
Since 2027Mass production of ASSB
2025 mass production of lithium sulfide batteries
1 4 1657
138
199
785
1,357
2,290
3,270
0.5% 0.5% 1.2%2.5%
4.2%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
50.0%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2020 2023 2025 2028 2030
전고체 전지 수요
전지 총수요
전고체 전지 비율
Battery Demand
ASSB Demand
Demand for ASSB for vehicles
2020 2028 20302023 2025
[unit: GWh]
In 2030, ASSB will take approx. 4% of the large cell market and 14% of the small cell market.
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6. Issues and TESLA
■ Competition of TESLA vs Traditional OEMs- 2022Y 155GWh vs 100GWh (60GWh, SNE Forecast)- 2030Y 1038GWh vs 3000GWh (274GWh, SNE Forecast)
20 28 30 4360 72
110
274
24%
'18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '25 '30 CAGR
[Battery demand for Tesla as a function of year]
Battery Demand
(GWh)
• Panasonic(Giga Factory) Cy 35GWh+@• LGC(Nanjing, China) Cy 20→60GWh(‘23)• CATL(Ningde, China) Pr(LFP) 18→50GWh+@(‘25)
100
3,000Tesla Plan (Battery Day)
(Source : SNE Research)
'18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '25 '30 CAGR
[Battery demand for 4 major Car OEM as a function of year]
VW Toyota Renault-Nissan Hyundai Kia
11 18 3078
155222
393
1,038
46%
(GWh)
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TESLA Issue1 – CATL LFP cellTesla Made-in-China Model3, which is produced in shanghai factory, will start to use CATL LFP battery Brief Information
Mileage(km)
Battery (kWh)
SupplierPrice
RMB USD1
Standard 445 54.0 LGC 291,800 42,154
Long Range 668 76.8 LGC 344,100 49,710
CATL LFP Battery
468 56 CATL ? ?
USD1: Based on Aug. 18th currency
. Delivery type: Module(CATL → Tesla)1) Cell/Module: CATL2) Pack: Tesla Shanghai
. Capacity: 56 kWh/vehicle(13.5 kWh*2module + 14.5 kWh*2 module)
1) Energy Density(Wh/kg, Wh/L, cell): 174 and 368 rep.2) Cell Capacity(min), Ah: 165.4
. Cell Chemistry: LFP
. Current Status1) CATL might provide Tesla with its LFP module the end
of September. So we might see Model 3 equipped by CATL’s product on Oct.
. Opinion 1) Not easy to produce prismatic cell with low height,
around , 83 mm for mass production2) Vehicle price in the market might be crucial for influence
, allegedly around 220 ~ 250 kRMB
6. Issues and TESLA
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TESLA Issue 2- Activities inside TeslaTo strengthen the battery-related value chain, the master plan is established, and related companies are continuously acquired and merged
Strengthen value chain
. Battery equipment company for automation
. Cell equipment company
. Dry coating process technology
. Pack equipment company
Tesla’s master plan(‘20)
6. Issues and TESLA
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자료 : SNE 리서치Source : SNE Research
Battery for Tesla Battery Evolution Forecast
GEN 1(2009 – 2012)
GEN 2(2016-2018)
GEN 3(2018-2022)
GEN 4(2022-)
Size 18650 1865021700
Prismatic4680
Prismatic
Chemistry NCANCALower cobalt wt%, Si applied
NCANCM811LFP(module)
NCANCM91/21/2LFP
Remark
Different chemistry depending on production Site(suppliers)
Dry process during coating
TESLA Issue 3- Battery chemistry and evolutionBattery size and its chemistry are changing in each stage, and the direction is assumed to be to reduce potential defect factors and increase productivity
6. Issues and TESLA
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TESLA Issue 4- Dry process during coatingDry coating is a kind of process without using NMP solvent during coating process. It is to increase coating speed, save space and amount of equipment investment with removing vacuum dry machine and recycling machine for NMP
. Without using NMP solvent conducting coating process
. If it works1) Increase coating speed2) Save space and amount of
equipment investment3) Claim of cell capacity increase
** Remove VD machineRecycling machine for NMP
6. Issues and TESLA
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TESLA Issue 5- Potential competitor in china and EuropeBYD finally launched Han vehicle with blade battery. Also BYD plans to extend blade cell in other upcoming vehicle model such as Song plus(2020)
Han
Song
Plus
Blade Battery
Item Han
65 kWh 77 kWh
Cells(Ea) 102 120
Current(A) 202 202
Nominal(V) 326.6 384
Energy (kWh) 65.9 77.6
Length(mm) 1377 1620
Width(mm) 905 905
Height(mm) 118 118
Volume(L) 147 173
Weight(Kg) 388 456
Driving Range(N
EDC, km)
550 605
1) 837 BEV of Han were registered on July of 2020 after it release
2) Estimate that there might be production issue for blade cell, but th
is blade cell could effect on BEV market with high demand in
china when BYD solves current issue
6. Issues and TESLA
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TESLA Issue 6- Price for cell In the year of 2020, cell and pack price are estimated at 100$ and 120 respectively, with a price drop of about 6% each year. In addition, it is also estimated that the price of LFP cell will be about 10% lower of NCM
* not considering the LME-linked price due to raw material variations
144
122
100* 85 76
69 65
~120
'17 '18 '20 '22 '25 '28 '30
Battery Price
Cell Pack
[Tesla Battery Day 2020]
6. Issues and TESLA
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Major Challenge for TESLA’s planBattery experts say some are under development by existing battery companies and some are less feasible. In addition, the opposite effect of cost reduction needs to be reviewed.
Item Breakthrough Issue Effect Feasibility
Cathode Dry coatingControl thinness within 1% for NCM/NCA chemistry* Technology for capacity
High Very Low
AnodeLow price silicon
Concept status in the battery industry for high elastic and conducting polymer
High Medium
Structuralbattery
Design ? Medium High
Design Tabless. Design/manufacturing. Most battery companies
Medium High
[Major Breakthrough]
6. Issues and TESLA
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Thank you
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