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Page 1: General Fund Revenue - Maine

REPORT OF THE MAINE STATE

REVENUE FORECASTING COMMITTEE

May 2015

$0.0

$500.0

$1,000.0

$1,500.0

$2,000.0

$2,500.0

$3,000.0

$3,500.0

$4,000.0

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19

Mil

lio

ns

General Fund Revenue

Individual Income Tax Sales and Use Tax Corporate Income Tax Other Revenue Sources

Michael Allen, Chair

Associate Commissioner for Tax Policy

James Breece

University of Maine System

Marc Cyr

Office of Fiscal & Program Review

Melissa Gott

State Budget Officer

Christopher Nolan, Director

Office of Fiscal & Program Review

Amanda Rector

State Economist

Page 2: General Fund Revenue - Maine

Revenue Forecasting Committee - May 2015 Report Table of Contents

Report of the Maine State Revenue Forecasting Committee

May 2015 Forecast

TABLE OF CONTENTS

I. INTRODUCTION..................................................................................................... 1

II. ECONOMIC FORECAST ....................................................................................... 1

III. SUMMARY OF REVENUE FORECAST ............................................................. 2

General Fund Summary ........................................................................................ 3

Highway Fund Summary ...................................................................................... 4

Fund for a Healthy Maine Summary ................................................................... 4

Medicaid/MaineCare Dedicated Revenue Taxes Summary .............................. 4

IV. CONCLUSION ......................................................................................................... 4

APPENDICES

A. General Fund Summary Table

B. Highway Fund Summary Table

C. Fund for a Healthy Maine Summary Table

D. Medicaid/MaineCare Dedicated Revenue Taxes Summary Table

E. Consensus Economic Forecasting Commission Report

F. Maine Revenue Services Recommendations

G. Other Background Materials

Page 3: General Fund Revenue - Maine

Revenue Forecasting Committee – May 2015 Report Page 1

Introduction The Revenue Forecasting Committee (RFC) met on April 29, 2015 to review and update the current

revenue forecast to comply with this year’s statutory reporting date of May 1st. The RFC revised its

revenue projections through the fiscal year ending June 30, 2019 for the General Fund, Highway Fund,

Fund for a Healthy Maine and Medicaid/MaineCare Dedicated Revenue Taxes.

Economic Forecast The Consensus Economic Forecasting Commission (CEFC) met on March 30, 2015 to review and

update their economic forecast through 2019. The first part of the meeting consisted of presentations on

labor market conditions from the Maine Department of Labor and on current revenues from the Maine

Department of Administrative and Financial Services. The Commission then considered and came to

agreement on changes to its November 2014 forecast for inclusion in its April 2015 report.

The Maine and national economies continued to show signs of improvement since the CEFC met in

October of 2014. Historical employment revisions and new 2014 data for employment, income, the

Consumer Price Index (CPI), and corporate profits have been released since the Commission’s last

meeting. These revisions and new data contributed to adjustments in the forecast. Additionally, the

Commission continued to largely follow an alternative scenario (“LowPop”) created by the Office of

Policy and Management, which provides staff support to the CEFC. This alternative scenario is based

on the Moody’s Analytics baseline with adjustments that lowered the population and employment

growth forecasts. These adjustments are a result of the consensus that the national level forecasts are

based on overly optimistic population projections for the state of Maine, causing employment forecasts,

among other things, to grow at an unattainable rate.

There were three key factors identified during the CEFC’s discussion as impacts on the forecast:

Maine’s demographic outlook, the recent steep decline in oil prices, and the strengthening U.S. dollar.

Employment growth will likely be held back by the limited availability of workers in the next few years

resulting from Maine’s lack of growth in the working age population. This was a consideration in the

previous CEFC forecast as well, so did not result in any significant changes to this forecast. The drop in

oil prices and the surge in the dollar have both occurred since the previous forecast, and so contributed

to changes in the forecast for the CPI, personal income and corporate profits.

Overall, the employment forecast saw only minor modifications to the growth rates, although the lower

2014 base results in employment levels that are lower than previously forecast. The 2019 employment

level is nearly the same as the 2007 pre-recession peak. The largest change to CPI is in 2015: a

significant downward revision resulting from the decline in oil prices. The remaining years were each

revised slightly downward. Total personal income was also revised downward in 2015, resulting from a

downward revision to wage and salary income linked to lower inflation. 2016-2019 wage and salary

income and total personal income were revised upward. While many of the forecast indicators were

taken from the “LowPop” scenario, some adjustments were made to specific years and in some cases,

the IHS forecast seemed to be more realistic and so was used instead.

A copy of the April 2015 report of the CEFC and other economic information providing the basis for

this revenue forecast is included in Appendix E.

Page 4: General Fund Revenue - Maine

Revenue Forecasting Committee – May 2015 Report Page 2

Summary of Revenue Forecast

The economic variables in the CEFC forecast play an important role in the revenue forecast. Maine

Revenue Services’ (MRS) tax models use the CEFC economic variables to help project revenue from

the major taxes. Data related to non-tax revenue lines were provided by a number of different state

agencies and reviewed by staff in the Office of Fiscal and Program Review and the Bureau of the

Budget to come up with consensus recommendations. The RFC reviewed Maine Revenue Services’ and

other staff recommendations at its meeting on April 29th

and agreed to those recommendations. The

following tables and narratives highlight the final changes to each of the major funds and revenue

sources accepted by the RFC as part of its May 2015 update to the revenue forecast. More detail on

each of the funds and revenue sources is provided in the various appendices.

General Fund SummaryFY14 Actual FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19

Current Forecast $3,113,496,933 $3,276,843,885 $3,174,826,695 $3,305,362,573 $3,413,888,433 $3,527,505,498

Annual % Growth 0.6% 5.2% -3.1% 4.1% 3.3% 3.3%

Net Increase (Decrease) $22,078,705 ($32,307,756) $3,083,541 $5,631,218 $19,040,617

Revised Forecast $3,113,496,933 $3,298,922,590 $3,142,518,939 $3,308,446,114 $3,419,519,651 $3,546,546,115

Annual % Growth 0.6% 6.0% -4.7% 5.3% 3.4% 3.7%

General Fund revenue estimates were revised upward by $22.1 million in the current fiscal year,

downward by $32.3 million in FY16 and upward by $3.1 million in FY17 (downward by $7.1 million

for the three year period).

The new economic forecast from the CEFC resulted in the revenue forecasting model used by the MRS

Office of Tax Policy (OTP) to project significantly lower sales and use tax revenue for all the fiscal

years in the current budget window. Based on sales and use tax receipts through March, and preliminary

data through late April, there is no indication that the December 1st forecast should be adjusted at this

time. Taxable sales surged during the final quarter of 2014 as energy prices plunged. While taxable

sales slowed throughout the nation in the first quarter of 2015, the Maine sales and use tax forecast

remained close to budget and is expected to continue to track the December forecast through the

remainder of the fiscal year. With expectations that energy prices will remain relatively low and the

economic recovery will continue, the RFC decided to accept the Office of Tax Policy recommendation

that the sales and use tax forecast from December go unchanged.

The individual income tax forecast is one of the few revenue lines that the RFC adjusted in the May

forecast. The Office of Tax Policy recommended an increase in the FY15 projection of $51.3 million,

$6.6 million in FY16 and $33 million in FY17. The change in the 2018-2019 biennium is an increase of

$119.7 million. While the new economic forecast generally resulted in relatively minor downward

adjustments to the forecast, there were two technical changes that accounted for most of the net upward

reprojection. First, in the original revenue estimate, and subsequent revenue forecasts, OTP assumed the

New Markets Tax Credit (NMTC) would be claimed by owners of pass-through entities and therefore

impact individual income tax revenues. Based on updated information we now know that corporations

and financial institutions will be claiming the credit. Recognition of this information merely shifts the

revenue impact from the individual income tax to the corporate income tax, with the timing of the

revenue impact being the only change to the General Fund forecast. Second, with the April 15

processing complete, it’s clear the Property Tax Fairness Credit (PTFC) will be less than previously

projected. OTP now estimates the cost of the PTFC will be $16.5 million, roughly half of the amount

forecasted in December. Preliminary analysis of 2014 tax returns shows that a combination of

Page 5: General Fund Revenue - Maine

Revenue Forecasting Committee – May 2015 Report Page 3

overestimating eligibility for the PTFC and imperfect credit take-up among eligible taxpayers are the

reasons for the lower cost.

In addition to the two technical changes above, the new individual income tax forecast recognizes the

strong performance of April final and estimated payments. Final payments increased by a healthy

10.5% over last April and the first estimated payment of 2015 was up 37%. The percentage increase in

the first estimated payment is well above any other in the last 15 years and is not easily explainable.

Information from other states indicates that Maine is one of a handful of states that experienced an

increase in the April estimated payment of this magnitude. Given the lack of information at this time,

the RFC has assumed the April surplus on estimated payments is a timing issue that will be reversed

through lower estimated payments later in the calendar year. As a result of this cautious assumption,

FY16 individual income tax receipts are essentially unchanged in the May forecast.

Corporate income tax revenue is the other revenue line the RFC made significant adjustments to during

the latest meeting. The committee reduced corporate income tax receipts by $19 million in FY15, $65

million in the 2016-2017 biennium and $88 million in the 2018-2019 biennium. As explained in the

previous section on the individual income tax, the shift of the New Markets Tax Credit from the

individual income tax to the corporate income tax is the cause of some of the reduction in the corporate

forecast. Final information on the 2013 tax year shows that corporate liability was $23 million below

the December forecast. The 2013 tax year is the jumping-off point for this revenue forecast. In

addition, approximately $15 million of refunds associated with the 2012 tax year are expected to be

settled by MRS and corporate taxpayers early in FY16. Finally, a slightly less optimistic forecast by the

CEFC of corporate profits explains a portion of the out year downward adjustments.

Estate tax revenues were $5 million under budget through the first 10 months of FY15. The RFC

decreased the FY15 projection for estate tax receipts by $3 million to account for the lagging

performance since December. A new forecast of household net-worth contributed to an increase of $3.7

million in the 2016-2017 biennium and $2.9 million in the 2018-2019 biennium.

Other notable adjustments to General Fund revenue lines include:

Transfer from Lottery Commission – the forecast was revised downward (negative impact on

General Fund) in all years as a result of “sluggish” sales for draw games not offset by “healthy”

instant game sales.

Other Taxes and Fees/Finance Industry Fees – The forecast for security issuer registration fee

revenue was increased to $25 million for all years based on historical and current year

performance.

Other Revenue/Transfer to Maine Milk Pool – The forecast for the transfer to the milk pool was

adjusted upward (negative impact on General Fund) for all years based on the latest estimates of

milk prices (see Appendix F for more detail). The significant increase in the FY 16 transfer

reflects both the change in the current milk price estimate and a change not included in the

December 2014 RFC forecast.

Page 6: General Fund Revenue - Maine

Revenue Forecasting Committee – May 2015 Report Page 4

Highway Fund SummaryFY14 Actual FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19

Current Forecast $317,076,966 $315,974,327 $319,024,509 $322,571,108 $325,653,401 $328,748,328

Annual % Growth -0.5% -0.3% 1.0% 1.1% 1.0% 1.0%

Net Increase (Decrease) $646,935 $447,284 $494,643 $494,643 $494,643

Revised Forecast $317,076,966 $316,621,262 $319,471,793 $323,065,751 $326,148,044 $329,242,971

Annual % Growth -0.5% -0.1% 0.9% 1.1% 1.0% 0.9%

Highway Fund revenue estimates were revised upward by $646.9 thousand in the current fiscal year, by

$447.3 thousand in FY16 and by $494.6 thousand in FY17 ($941.9 thousand over the 2016-2017

biennium). With no estimated change in total motor fuel tax revenue (gasoline and special fuel), the

changes in the Highway Fund projections are largely driven by an estimated increase in long-term trailer

registration fees. Overall growth in Highway Fund revenue is estimated to be approximately 1% per year

for the next four years.

Fund for a Healthy Maine SummaryFY14 Actual FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19

Current Forecast $60,558,934 $53,255,291 $53,894,008 $52,913,657 $48,531,611 $47,647,398

Annual % Growth 18.8% -12.1% 1.2% -1.8% -8.3% -1.8%

Net Increase (Decrease) ($134,967) $66,055 $64,497 $65,079 $65,668

Revised Forecast $60,558,934 $53,120,324 $53,960,063 $52,978,154 $48,596,690 $47,713,066

Annual % Growth 18.8% -12.3% 1.6% -1.8% -8.3% -1.8%

Fund for a Healthy Maine revenue estimates were revised downward by $134.9 thousand in the current

fiscal year and upward by $66.1 thousand in FY16 and by $64.5 thousand in FY17 (see Appendix C for

more detailed information).

After some uncertainty over the last few weeks, Maine’s Tobacco Settlement Payments (TSPs) for the

current year ended up only slightly below budgeted levels. The continued lack of detailed information

about Maine’s TSPs for FY14 and FY15, led the RFC to leave the TSP forecast for the next four years at

the levels assumed in the December 2014 forecast. Additional information about the FY14 and FY15

payments will be reviewed for the December 2015 forecast. In addition to the small current year TSP

adjustment, a one-time negative adjustment in Hollywood Casino Bangor revenue also reduced current

year Fund for a Healthy Maine revenue.

Medicaid/MaineCare Dedicated Revenue Taxes SummaryFY14 Actual FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19

Current Forecast $168,609,944 $171,510,715 $171,937,927 $171,937,927 $171,937,927 $171,937,927

Annual % Growth 10.0% 1.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Net Increase (Decrease) ($265,546) ($265,546) ($265,546) ($265,546) ($265,546)

Revised Forecast $168,609,944 $171,245,169 $171,672,381 $171,672,381 $171,672,381 $171,672,381

Annual % Growth 10.0% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

The forecast of Medicaid/MaineCare Dedicated Revenue Taxes revenue was adjusted downward based

on recent experience. The experience for the current year projects out to a $265.5 thousand downward

revision for each year of the forecast (see Appendix D for more detailed information).

Conclusion

The Revenue Forecasting Committee’s adjustments to its previous forecast have been relatively small,

reflecting the slow but steady growth of the current economic expansion. In their April 1st economic

forecast, the Consensus Economic Forecasting Commission (CEFC) assumed the economy will grow at

a slightly slower pace over the next five years relative to their previous forecast. Consistent with that

Page 7: General Fund Revenue - Maine

Revenue Forecasting Committee – May 2015 Report Page 5

forecast the new RFC projections are for moderate revenue growth in the 2016-2017 and the 2018-2019

biennia after adjusting for the expiration of the temporary sales tax increase at the end of FY15.

Both the RFC and the CEFC remain concerned about Maine’s demographic situation. With an aging

population and little to no population growth, employment and income growth will be restrained going

forward. In this forecast exercise the CEFC continued incorporating population and employment

assumptions that are consistent with population projections by the Office of Policy and Management and

the implications of those projections on employment growth guided by the Maine Department of Labor.

Both the RFC and the CEFC are committed to refining this process and to better understanding how

Maine’s demographic trends will affect its future economic and revenue potential.

Page 8: General Fund Revenue - Maine

Appendix A

General Fund Summary Table

Page 9: General Fund Revenue - Maine

Sour

ceFY

11 A

ctua

lFY

12 A

ctua

l%

Chg

.FY

13 A

ctua

l%

Chg

.FY

14 A

ctua

l%

Chg

.FY

15 B

udge

t%

Chg

.R

ecom

. Chg

.FY

15 R

evis

ed%

Chg

.

Sale

s and

Use

Tax

92

3,68

6,97

398

1,25

7,80

56.

2%98

6,74

7,63

70.

6%1,

106,

158,

236

12.1

%1,

194,

004,

518

7.9%

01,

194,

004,

518

7.9%

Serv

ice

Prov

ider

Tax

52,6

72,3

0648

,255

,501

-8.4

%50

,139

,878

3.9%

50,1

73,3

880.

1%50

,303

,776

0.3%

050

,303

,776

0.3%

Indi

vidu

al In

com

e Ta

x1,

415,

283,

534

1,43

4,21

7,18

91.

3%1,

521,

862,

756

6.1%

1,40

6,11

7,70

5-7

.6%

1,44

8,90

6,08

83.

0%51

,346

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1,50

0,25

2,08

86.

7%

Cor

pora

te In

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e Ta

x20

8,99

6,59

823

2,11

7,99

511

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171,

987,

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-25.

9%18

2,92

8,18

16.

4%18

6,48

0,88

11.

9%(1

8,82

5,24

1)16

7,65

5,64

0-8

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Cig

aret

te a

nd T

obac

co T

ax

145,

229,

303

139,

729,

147

-3.8

%13

7,95

1,82

4-1

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136,

159,

833

-1.3

%13

4,89

0,00

0-0

.9%

013

4,89

0,00

0-0

.9%

Insu

ranc

e C

ompa

nies

Tax

76,9

30,3

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79,6

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83,2

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44,8

65,5

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79,0

83,0

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38,4

06,9

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(3,0

29,7

03)

35,3

77,2

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Oth

er T

axes

and

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1,67

6,49

513

1,89

3,40

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153,

796,

137

16.6

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0,14

0,46

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132,

333,

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1.7%

2,01

4,33

913

4,34

7,43

63.

2%

Fine

s, Fo

rfei

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nd P

enal

ties

28,5

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me

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%

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sfer

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sfer

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Rel

ief P

rogr

ams *

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ring

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(61,

599,

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(2,2

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(63,

806,

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3.4%

Oth

er R

even

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49,9

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38-1

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(3,7

40,6

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45,8

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al -

Gen

eral

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d R

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78,7

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* A

dditi

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ail p

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ages

4, 5

and

6

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Page 10: General Fund Revenue - Maine

Sour

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1,

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pora

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ax

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ranc

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te T

ax28

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axes

and

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8,99

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129,

375,

658

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2,15

6,49

113

1,53

2,14

9-0

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Fine

s, Fo

rfei

ts a

nd P

enal

ties

22,9

88,7

70-0

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(372

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)22

,615

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%22

,979

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0.0%

(372

,912

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,606

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0.0%

Inco

me

from

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stm

ents

243,

658

116.

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5,57

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597,

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145.

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5,39

286

3,11

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sfer

from

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tery

Com

mis

sion

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(1,9

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002.

0%57

,123

,279

0.5%

(2,2

23,2

79)

54,9

00,0

000.

0%

Tran

sfer

s to

Tax

Rel

ief P

rogr

ams *

(66,

771,

938)

-12.

8%0

(66,

771,

938)

-12.

8%(6

8,94

8,34

0)-3

.3%

0(6

8,94

8,34

0)-3

.3%

Tran

sfer

to M

unic

ipal

Rev

. Sha

ring

(158

,224

,090

)-1

56.9

%1,

799,

379

(156

,424

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)-1

45.2

%(1

55,1

54,4

32)

1.9%

(20,

109)

(155

,174

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8%

Oth

er R

even

ue *

37,7

03,8

55-2

4.0%

(6,3

69,2

07)

31,3

34,6

48-3

1.7%

38,9

19,9

593.

2%(3

,504

,157

)35

,415

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13.0

%

Tot

al -

Gen

eral

Fun

d R

even

ue3,

174,

826,

695

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%(3

2,30

7,75

6)3,

142,

518,

939

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%3,

305,

362,

573

4.1%

3,08

3,54

13,

308,

446,

114

5.3%

Cha

nge

in B

ienn

ial T

otal

s(2

9,22

4,21

5)

* A

dditi

onal

det

ail p

rovi

ded

on p

ages

4, 5

and

6

RE

VE

NU

E F

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FOR

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NE

RA

L F

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Rev

enue

For

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ting

Com

mitt

ee -

May

201

5 Fo

reca

stA

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dix

A -

Gen

eral

Fun

d Su

mm

ary

Tab

le -

Page

2 o

f 6

A-2

Page 11: General Fund Revenue - Maine

Sour

ceFY

18

Proj

ectio

ns%

Chg

.R

ecom

. Chg

.FY

18 R

evis

ed%

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19

Proj

ectio

ns%

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ecom

. Chg

.FY

19 R

evis

ed%

Chg

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Sale

s and

Use

Tax

1,

236,

821,

231

4.8%

01,

236,

821,

231

4.8%

1,29

4,19

5,57

64.

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1,29

4,19

5,57

64.

6%

Serv

ice

Prov

ider

Tax

53,3

82,7

692.

0%0

53,3

82,7

692.

0%54

,450

,424

2.0%

054

,450

,424

2.0%

Indi

vidu

al In

com

e Ta

x1,

658,

371,

422

3.2%

48,6

32,0

001,

707,

003,

422

4.1%

1,70

3,15

4,24

12.

7%71

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1,77

4,28

5,24

13.

9%

Cor

pora

te In

com

e Ta

x21

3,95

7,58

010

.4%

(40,

182,

385)

173,

775,

195

4.9%

232,

671,

470

8.7%

(48,

256,

333)

184,

415,

137

6.1%

Cig

aret

te a

nd T

obac

co T

ax

130,

732,

000

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130,

732,

000

-1.0

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9,40

0,00

0-1

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012

9,40

0,00

0-1

.0%

Insu

ranc

e C

ompa

nies

Tax

82,7

65,0

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82,7

65,0

000.

1%82

,765

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0.0%

082

,765

,000

0.0%

Esta

te T

ax34

,220

,671

8.1%

1,62

4,49

435

,845

,165

7.1%

37,0

94,8

418.

4%1,

241,

547

38,3

36,3

886.

9%

Oth

er T

axes

and

Fee

s *12

7,62

6,24

4-1

.4%

1,65

8,14

312

9,28

4,38

7-1

.7%

128,

473,

167

0.7%

1,65

9,81

113

0,13

2,97

80.

7%

Fine

s, Fo

rfei

ts a

nd P

enal

ties

22,9

65,5

12-0

.1%

(372

,912

)22

,592

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-0.1

%22

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0.0%

(372

,912

)22

,593

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0.0%

Inco

me

from

Inve

stm

ents

597,

719

0.0%

265,

392

863,

111

0.0%

597,

719

0.0%

265,

392

863,

111

0.0%

Tran

sfer

from

Lot

tery

Com

mis

sion

57,1

23,2

790.

0%(2

,223

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)54

,900

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0.0%

57,1

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790.

0%(2

,223

,279

)54

,900

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0.0%

Tran

sfer

s to

Tax

Rel

ief P

rogr

ams *

(71,

768,

101)

-4.1

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(71,

768,

101)

-4.1

%(7

5,88

8,62

3)-5

.7%

0(7

5,88

8,62

3)-5

.7%

Tran

sfer

to M

unic

ipal

Rev

. Sha

ring

(161

,482

,184

)-4

.1%

(456

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)(1

61,9

38,2

27)

-4.4

%(1

67,6

01,9

61)

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%(1

,123

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)(1

68,7

25,8

29)

-4.2

%

Oth

er R

even

ue *

28,5

75,2

91-2

6.6%

(3,3

14,1

92)

25,2

61,0

99-2

8.7%

28,1

03,8

53-1

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(3,2

80,7

41)

24,8

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12-1

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Tot

al -

Gen

eral

Fun

d R

even

ue3,

413,

888,

433

3.3%

5,63

1,21

83,

419,

519,

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3.4%

3,52

7,50

5,49

83.

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3,54

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6,11

53.

7%

Cha

nge

in B

ienn

ial T

otal

s24

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* A

dditi

onal

det

ail p

rovi

ded

on p

ages

4, 5

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RE

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NE

RA

L F

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Rev

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For

ecas

ting

Com

mitt

ee -

May

201

5 Fo

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dix

A -

Gen

eral

Fun

d Su

mm

ary

Tab

le -

Page

3 o

f 6

A-3

Page 12: General Fund Revenue - Maine

Sour

ceFY

11 A

ctua

lFY

12 A

ctua

l%

Chg

.FY

13 A

ctua

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14 A

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15 B

udge

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15 R

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Det

ail o

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axes

and

Fee

s: -

Pro

perty

Tax

- U

norg

aniz

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errit

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13,3

81,5

0610

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00)

13,3

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l Est

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sfer

Tax

13,8

15,9

428,

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30.6

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- L

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r Tax

es a

nd F

ees

21,0

17,1

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21,5

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Tel

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17,6

68,2

4410

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ance

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ting

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15,8

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17,8

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1,67

6,49

513

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153,

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Det

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7,31

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2,35

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206,

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2,56

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- S

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15,5

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18,8

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20,7

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2,33

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1,62

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- T

rans

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o M

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Milk

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42,1

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Det

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Rel

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rogr

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aine

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iden

t Pro

perty

Tax

Pro

gra m

(41,

449,

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(43,

411,

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1,84

1,76

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usin

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quip

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mb.

(55,

220,

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805,

042)

4.4%

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7.5%

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17.4

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R(1

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9,12

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0.7%

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8%

Su

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al -

Tax

Rel

ief T

rans

fers

(113

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15,3

36,1

49)

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11,6

74,3

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(65,

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9,18

3,36

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183,

362)

9.4%

IF&

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**

21,4

25,5

7321

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-0.4

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1.3%

21,4

30,4

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21,3

79,3

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IF&

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a c

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line

but

is n

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the

Det

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f Oth

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even

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incl

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Oth

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lass

ified

abo

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Upd

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: 04/

20/2

015

Rev

enue

For

ecas

ting

Com

mitt

ee -

May

201

5 Fo

reca

stA

ppen

dix

A -

Gen

eral

Fun

d Su

mm

ary

Tab

le -

Page

4 o

f 6

A-4

Page 13: General Fund Revenue - Maine

Sour

ceFY

16 B

udge

t%

Chg

.R

ecom

. Chg

.FY

16 R

evis

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Det

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s: -

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14,2

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09,

203,

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Liq

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21,4

15,6

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Cor

pora

tion

Fees

& L

icen

ses

8,31

3,64

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5,00

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088,

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3,64

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088,

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0.0%

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unic

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ns E

xcis

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250,

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0.0%

(750

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500,

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0.0%

8,25

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50,0

00)

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0,00

00.

0% -

Fin

ance

Indu

stry

Fee

s24

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26,8

51,9

90-0

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24,8

51,9

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51,9

900.

0% -

Milk

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211,

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9,47

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936

-27.

3% -

Cas

ino

and

Rac

ino

Rev

enue

8,95

5,58

90.

4%16

3,55

39,

119,

142

3.5%

9,04

6,14

31.

0%16

5,19

19,

211,

334

1.0%

- B

oat,

ATV

and

Sno

wm

obile

Fee

s4,

523,

561

0.0%

04,

523,

561

0.0%

4,52

3,56

10.

0%0

4,52

3,56

10.

0% -

Hun

ting

and

Fish

ing

Lice

nse

Fees

15,8

50,3

420.

4%0

15,8

50,3

420.

4%15

,850

,342

0.0%

015

,850

,342

0.0%

- O

ther

Mis

cella

neou

s Tax

es a

nd F

ees

11,1

91,5

25-3

.9%

(33,

700)

11,1

57,8

25-5

.0%

11,1

95,5

040.

0%(3

3,70

0)11

,161

,804

0.0%

Subt

otal

- O

ther

Tax

es a

nd F

ees

128,

995,

143

-2.5

%2,

984,

329

131,

979,

472

-1.8

%12

9,37

5,65

80.

3%2,

156,

491

131,

532,

149

-0.3

%

Det

ail o

f Oth

er R

even

ue:

- L

iquo

r Sal

es a

nd O

pera

tions

9,66

6,50

0-2

8.3%

09,

666,

500

-28.

3%9,

844,

500

1.8%

09,

844,

500

1.8%

- T

arge

ted

Cas

e M

anag

emen

t (H

HS)

2,35

3,91

60.

0%20

6,08

42,

560,

000

0.0%

2,35

3,91

60.

0%20

6,08

42,

560,

000

0.0%

- S

tate

Cos

t Allo

catio

n Pr

ogra

m18

,296

,832

-11.

9%0

18,2

96,8

32-1

1.9%

18,2

96,8

320.

0%0

18,2

96,8

320.

0% -

Unc

laim

ed P

rope

rty T

rans

fer

7,00

0,00

00.

0%0

7,00

0,00

00.

0%7,

000,

000

0.0%

07,

000,

000

0.0%

- T

ouris

m T

rans

fer

(12,

854,

128)

-10.

6%0

(12,

854,

128)

-10.

6%(1

1,83

4,68

3)7.

9%0

(11,

834,

683)

7.9%

- T

rans

fer t

o M

aine

Milk

Poo

l(2

,391

,971

)-3

24.3

%(6

,216

,857

)(8

,608

,828

)-8

9.1%

(2,3

88,4

12)

0.1%

(3,3

44,8

07)

(5,7

33,2

19)

33.4

% -

Tra

nsfe

r to

STA

R T

rans

porta

tion

Fund

(6,8

00,0

00)

3.8%

0(6

,800

,000

)3.

8%(6

,800

,000

)0.

0%0

(6,8

00,0

00)

0.0%

- O

ther

Mis

cella

neou

s Rev

enue

22,4

32,7

06-1

1.1%

(358

,434

)22

,074

,272

-12.

6%22

,447

,806

0.1%

(365

,434

)22

,082

,372

0.0%

Subt

otal

- O

ther

Rev

enue

37,7

03,8

55-2

4.0%

(6,3

69,2

07)

31,3

34,6

48-3

1.7%

38,9

19,9

593.

2%(3

,504

,157

)35

,415

,802

13.0

%

Det

ail o

f Tra

nsfe

rs to

Tax

Rel

ief P

rogr

ams:

- M

aine

Res

iden

t Pro

perty

Tax

Pro

gram

0N

/A0

0N

/A0

N/A

00

N/A

- B

ETR

- B

usin

ess E

quip

. Tax

Rei

mb.

(35,

000,

000)

-9.1

%0

(35,

000,

000)

-9.1

%(3

2,00

0,00

0)8.

6%0

(32,

000,

000)

8.6%

- B

ETE

- Mun

icip

al B

us. E

quip

. Tax

Rei

mb.

(31,

771,

938)

-17.

2%0

(31,

771,

938)

-17.

2%(3

6,94

8,34

0)-1

6.3%

0(3

6,94

8,34

0)-1

6.3%

Subt

otal

- Ta

x R

elie

f Tra

nsfe

rs(6

6,77

1,93

8)-1

2.8%

0(6

6,77

1,93

8)-1

2.8%

(68,

948,

340)

-3.3

%0

(68,

948,

340)

-3.3

%

IF&

W T

otal

Rev

enue

**

21,4

47,9

070.

3%10

,431

21,4

47,9

070.

3%21

,451

,886

0.0%

021

,451

,886

0.0%

** IF

&W

Rev

enue

is a

com

pone

nt o

f the

Oth

er R

even

ue li

ne b

ut is

not

incl

uded

in th

e D

etai

l of O

ther

Rev

enue

bec

ause

it in

clud

es O

ther

Rev

enue

cla

ssifi

ed a

bove

.

Upd

ated

: 04/

20/2

015

Rev

enue

For

ecas

ting

Com

mitt

ee -

May

201

5 Fo

reca

stA

ppen

dix

A -

Gen

eral

Fun

d Su

mm

ary

Tab

le -

Page

5 o

f 6

A-5

Page 14: General Fund Revenue - Maine

Sour

ceFY

18

Proj

ectio

ns%

Chg

.R

ecom

. Chg

.FY

18 R

evis

ed%

Chg

.FY

19

Proj

ectio

ns%

Chg

.R

ecom

. Chg

.FY

19 R

evis

ed%

Chg

.

RE

VE

NU

E F

OR

EC

AST

ING

CO

MM

ITT

EE

RE

CO

MM

EN

DA

TIO

NS

- MA

Y 2

015

FOR

EC

AST

GE

NE

RA

L F

UN

D R

EV

EN

UE

Det

ail o

f Oth

er T

axes

and

Fee

s: -

Pro

perty

Tax

- U

norg

aniz

ed T

errit

ory

14,5

13,1

690.

0%0

14,5

13,1

690.

0%14

,513

,169

0.0%

014

,513

,169

0.0%

- R

eal E

stat

e Tr

ansf

er T

ax8,

901,

635

-3.3

%0

8,90

1,63

5-3

.3%

9,65

2,43

38.

4%0

9,65

2,43

38.

4% -

Liq

uor T

axes

and

Fee

s19

,086

,688

-10.

9%0

19,0

86,6

88-1

0.9%

19,0

86,6

880.

0%0

19,0

86,6

880.

0% -

Cor

pora

tion

Fees

& L

icen

ses

8,31

3,64

90.

0%77

5,00

09,

088,

649

0.0%

8,31

3,64

90.

0%77

5,00

09,

088,

649

0.0%

- T

elec

omm

unic

atio

ns E

xcis

e Ta

x8,

250,

000

0.0%

(750

,000

)7,

500,

000

0.0%

8,25

0,00

00.

0%(7

50,0

00)

7,50

0,00

00.

0% -

Fin

ance

Indu

stry

Fee

s25

,621

,990

3.1%

1,50

0,00

027

,121

,990

1.0%

25,6

21,9

900.

0%1,

500,

000

27,1

21,9

900.

0% -

Milk

Han

dlin

g Fe

e2,

211,

936

0.0%

02,

211,

936

0.0%

2,21

1,93

60.

0%0

2,21

1,93

60.

0% -

Cas

ino

and

Rac

ino

Rev

enue

9,13

7,60

51.

0%16

6,84

39,

304,

448

1.0%

9,22

9,98

01.

0%16

8,51

19,

398,

491

1.0%

- B

oat,

ATV

and

Sno

wm

obile

Fee

s4,

523,

561

0.0%

04,

523,

561

0.0%

4,52

3,56

10.

0%0

4,52

3,56

10.

0% -

Hun

ting

and

Fish

ing

Lice

nse

Fees

15,8

50,3

420.

0%0

15,8

50,3

420.

0%15

,850

,342

0.0%

015

,850

,342

0.0%

- O

ther

Mis

cella

neou

s Tax

es a

nd F

ees

11,2

15,6

690.

2%(3

3,70

0)11

,181

,969

0.2%

11,2

19,4

190.

0%(3

3,70

0)11

,185

,719

0.0%

Subt

otal

- O

ther

Tax

es a

nd F

ees

127,

626,

244

-1.4

%1,

658,

143

129,

284,

387

-1.7

%12

8,47

3,16

70.

7%1,

659,

811

130,

132,

978

0.7%

Det

ail o

f Oth

er R

even

ue:

- L

iquo

r Sal

es a

nd O

pera

tions

27,5

00-9

9.7%

027

,500

-99.

7%27

,500

0.0%

027

,500

0.0%

- T

arge

ted

Cas

e M

anag

emen

t (H

HS)

2,35

3,91

60.

0%20

6,08

42,

560,

000

0.0%

2,35

3,91

60.

0%20

6,08

42,

560,

000

0.0%

- S

tate

Cos

t Allo

catio

n Pr

ogra

m18

,296

,832

0.0%

018

,296

,832

0.0%

18,2

96,8

320.

0%0

18,2

96,8

320.

0% -

Unc

laim

ed P

rope

rty T

rans

fer

7,00

0,00

00.

0%0

7,00

0,00

00.

0%7,

000,

000

0.0%

07,

000,

000

0.0%

- T

ouris

m T

rans

fer

(12,

346,

751)

-4.3

%0

(12,

346,

751)

-4.3

%(1

2,83

3,28

9)-3

.9%

0(1

2,83

3,28

9)-3

.9%

- T

rans

fer t

o M

aine

Milk

Poo

l(2

,388

,412

)0.

0%(3

,161

,842

)(5

,550

,254

)3.

2%(2

,388

,412

)0.

0%(3

,158

,820

)(5

,547

,232

)0.

1% -

Tra

nsfe

r to

STA

R T

rans

porta

tion

Fund

(6,8

00,0

00)

0.0%

0(6

,800

,000

)0.

0%(6

,800

,000

)0.

0%0

(6,8

00,0

00)

0.0%

- O

ther

Mis

cella

neou

s Rev

enue

22,4

32,2

06-0

.1%

(358

,434

)22

,073

,772

0.0%

22,4

47,3

060.

1%(3

28,0

05)

22,1

19,3

010.

2%

Su

btot

al -

Oth

er R

even

ue28

,575

,291

-26.

6%(3

,314

,192

)25

,261

,099

-28.

7%28

,103

,853

-1.6

%(3

,280

,741

)24

,823

,112

-1.7

%

Det

ail o

f Tra

nsfe

rs to

Tax

Rel

ief P

rogr

ams:

- M

aine

Res

iden

t Pro

perty

Tax

Pro

gram

0N

/A0

0N

/A0

N/A

00

N/A

- B

ETR

- B

usin

ess E

quip

. Tax

Rei

mb.

(28,

800,

000)

10.0

%0

(28,

800,

000)

10.0

%(2

5,92

0,00

0)10

.0%

0(2

5,92

0,00

0)10

.0%

- B

ETE

- Mun

icip

al B

us. E

quip

. Tax

Rei

mb.

(42,

968,

101)

-16.

3%0

(42,

968,

101)

-16.

3%(4

9,96

8,62

3)-1

6.3%

0(4

9,96

8,62

3)-1

6.3%

Subt

otal

- Ta

x R

elie

f Tra

nsfe

rs(7

1,76

8,10

1)-4

.1%

0(7

1,76

8,10

1)-4

.1%

(75,

888,

623)

-5.7

%0

(75,

888,

623)

-5.7

%

IF&

W T

otal

Rev

enue

**

21,4

52,0

510.

0%0

21,4

52,0

510.

0%21

,455

,801

0.0%

021

,455

,801

0.0%

** IF

&W

Rev

enue

is a

com

pone

nt o

f the

Oth

er R

even

ue li

ne b

ut is

not

incl

uded

in th

e D

etai

l of O

ther

Rev

enue

bec

ause

it in

clud

es O

ther

Rev

enue

cla

ssifi

ed a

bove

.

Upd

ated

: 04/

20/2

015

Rev

enue

For

ecas

ting

Com

mitt

ee -

May

201

5 Fo

reca

stA

ppen

dix

A -

Gen

eral

Fun

d Su

mm

ary

Tab

le -

Page

6 o

f 6

A-6

Page 15: General Fund Revenue - Maine

Appendix B

Highway Fund Summary Table

Page 16: General Fund Revenue - Maine

DR

AFT

4/3

0/20

15 2

:31

PM

Sour

ceFY

11 A

ctua

lFY

12 A

ctua

l%

Chg

.FY

13 A

ctua

l%

Chg

.FY

14 A

ctua

l%

Chg

.FY

15 B

udge

t%

Chg

.R

ecom

. Chg

.FY

15 R

evis

ed%

Chg

.

Fuel

Tax

es

- G

asol

ine

Tax

194,

958,

019

196,

418,

900

0.7%

192,

107,

854

-2.2

%$1

94,2

91,2

951.

1%19

4,21

8,90

00.

0%0

194,

218,

900

0.0%

- S

peci

al F

uel a

nd R

oad

Use

Tax

es44

,588

,438

45,8

04,7

182.

7%44

,654

,907

-2.5

%$4

5,69

6,73

02.

3%45

,679

,700

0.0%

045

,679

,700

0.0%

- T

rans

cap

Tran

sfer

s - F

uel T

axes

(17,

554,

820)

(17,

746,

710)

1.1%

(17,

414,

097)

1.9%

($17

,634

,644

)-1

.3%

(17,

628,

133)

0.0%

0(1

7,62

8,13

3)0.

0%

- O

ther

Fun

d G

asol

ine

Tax

Dis

tribu

tions

(4,9

57,7

45)

(5,0

13,7

90)

1.1%

(4,8

08,8

35)

4.1%

($4,

858,

642)

-1.0

%(4

,856

,833

)0.

0%0

(4,8

56,8

33)

0.0%

Subt

otal

- Fu

el T

axes

217,

033,

892

219,

463,

118

1.1%

214,

539,

829

-2.2

%$2

17,4

94,7

391.

4%21

7,41

3,63

40.

0%0

217,

413,

634

0.0%

Mot

or V

ehic

le R

egis

tratio

n an

d Fe

es

- M

otor

Veh

icle

Reg

istra

tion

Fees

65,0

67,7

3165

,342

,628

0.4%

65,6

02,9

360.

4%$6

5,76

2,24

70.

2%65

,659

,536

-0.2

%0

65,6

59,5

36-0

.2%

- L

icen

se P

late

Fee

s3,

424,

536

3,47

6,00

01.

5%3,

526,

534

1.5%

$3,5

19,7

81-0

.2%

3,35

1,68

1-4

.8%

03,

351,

681

-4.8

%

- L

ong-

term

Tra

iler R

egis

tratio

n Fe

es9,

792,

983

9,43

6,35

0-3

.6%

9,80

1,65

83.

9%$9

,924

,915

1.3%

9,38

4,52

3-5

.4%

1,00

0,00

010

,384

,523

4.6%

- T

itle

Fees

11,2

61,3

0112

,074

,653

7.2%

19,1

82,4

5458

.9%

$13,

230,

526

-31.

0%13

,129

,254

-0.8

%(3

30,0

00)

12,7

99,2

54-3

.3%

- M

otor

Veh

icle

Ope

rato

r Lic

ense

Fee

s6,

112,

149

8,35

8,21

436

.7%

8,54

0,24

22.

2%$7

,872

,663

-7.8

%7,

425,

882

-5.7

%0

7,42

5,88

2-5

.7%

- T

rans

cap

Tran

sfer

s - M

otor

Veh

icle

Fee

s(1

4,81

7,46

0)(1

5,12

4,44

3)-2

.1%

(17,

320,

622)

-14.

5%($

15,4

94,1

40)

10.5

%(1

5,48

3,40

4)0.

1%30

,000

(15,

453,

404)

0.3%

Subt

otal

- M

otor

Veh

icle

Reg

. & F

ees

80,8

41,2

4083

,563

,402

3.4%

89,3

33,2

026.

9%$8

4,81

5,99

2-5

.1%

83,4

67,4

72-1

.6%

700,

000

84,1

67,4

72-0

.8%

Mot

or V

ehic

le In

spec

tion

Fees

2,97

7,70

22,

997,

953

0.7%

3,49

5,70

416

.6%

$3,1

09,2

88-1

1.1%

2,98

2,50

0-4

.1%

02,

982,

500

-4.1

%

Oth

er H

ighw

ay F

und

Taxe

s and

Fee

s1,

358,

167

1,36

1,88

60.

3%1,

309,

810

-3.8

%$1

,307

,919

-0.1

%1,

270,

229

-2.9

%0

1,27

0,22

9-2

.9%

Fine

s, Fo

rfei

ts a

nd P

enal

ties

1,14

5,04

41,

044,

271

-8.8

%1,

030,

267

-1.3

%$9

76,0

84-5

.3%

1,00

7,99

83.

3%(1

02,0

88)

905,

910

-7.2

%

Inco

me

from

Inve

stm

ents

124,

518

141,

082

13.3

%10

5,41

4-2

5.3%

$80,

299

-23.

8%10

5,52

331

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49,0

2315

4,54

692

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Oth

er H

ighw

ay F

und

Rev

enue

s7,

870,

593

8,63

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79.

7%9,

011,

474

4.4%

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92,6

453.

1%9,

726,

971

4.7%

09,

726,

971

4.7%

Tot

al -

Hig

hway

Fun

d R

even

ue31

1,35

1,15

531

7,20

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91.

9%31

8,82

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00.

5%$3

17,0

76,9

66-0

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315,

974,

327

-0.3

%64

6,93

531

6,62

1,26

2-0

.1%

646,

935

HIG

HW

AY

FU

ND

RE

VE

NU

ER

EV

EN

UE

FO

RE

CA

STIN

G C

OM

MIT

TE

E R

EC

OM

ME

ND

AT

ION

S - M

AY

201

5 FO

RE

CA

ST

Rev

enue

For

ecas

ting

Com

mitt

ee -

May

201

5 Fo

reca

stA

ppen

dix

B -

Hig

hway

Fun

d Su

mm

ary

Tab

le -

Page

1 o

f 3

B-1

Page 17: General Fund Revenue - Maine

DR

AFT

4/3

0/20

15 2

:31

PM

Sour

ceFY

16 B

udge

t%

Chg

.R

ecom

. C

hg.

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ed%

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Fuel

Tax

es

- G

asol

ine

Tax

197,

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300

1.6%

019

7,25

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6%20

0,20

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5%0

200,

201,

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- S

peci

al F

uel a

nd R

oad

Use

Tax

es46

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1.6%

046

,393

,600

1.6%

47,0

86,7

001.

5%0

47,0

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001.

5%

- T

rans

cap

Tran

sfer

s - F

uel T

axes

(17,

903,

637)

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%0

(17,

903,

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%(1

8,17

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1)-1

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.5%

- O

ther

Fun

d G

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Tax

Dis

tribu

tions

(4,9

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38)

-1.6

%0

(4,9

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%(5

,006

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,006

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Subt

otal

- Fu

el T

axes

220,

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0,81

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224,

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or V

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es

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se P

late

Fee

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342,

681

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ong-

term

Tra

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n Fe

es9,

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13,1

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rato

r Lic

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. & F

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or V

ehic

le In

spec

tion

Fees

2,98

2,50

00.

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Oth

er H

ighw

ay F

und

Taxe

s and

Fee

s1,

283,

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Fine

s, Fo

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287,

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er H

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enue

s9,

192,

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9,19

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Tot

al -

Hig

hway

Fun

d R

even

ue31

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9,47

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4,64

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Cha

nge

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ienn

ial T

otal

s94

1,92

7

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ER

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Rev

enue

For

ecas

ting

Com

mitt

ee -

May

201

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reca

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ppen

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B -

Hig

hway

Fun

d Su

mm

ary

Tab

le -

Page

2 o

f 3

B-2

Page 18: General Fund Revenue - Maine

DR

AFT

4/3

0/20

15 2

:31

PM

Sour

ceFY

18

Proj

ectio

ns%

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202,

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205,

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peci

al F

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oad

Use

Tax

es47

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047

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ther

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Dis

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226,

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65,6

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342,

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s7,

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s(1

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83,4

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or V

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le In

spec

tion

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2,98

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Oth

er H

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ay F

und

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s and

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s1,

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me

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ents

549,

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er H

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enue

s9,

550,

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3.9%

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550,

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9,55

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90.

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Tot

al -

Hig

hway

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d R

even

ue32

5,65

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11.

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9,24

2,97

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Cha

nge

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ienn

ial T

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s98

9,28

6

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ION

S - M

AY

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Rev

enue

For

ecas

ting

Com

mitt

ee -

May

201

5 Fo

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ppen

dix

B -

Hig

hway

Fun

d Su

mm

ary

Tab

le -

Page

3 o

f 3

B-3

Page 19: General Fund Revenue - Maine

Appendix C

Fund for a Healthy Maine Summary

Table

Page 20: General Fund Revenue - Maine

Upd

ated

4/3

0/20

15 2

:33

PM

Sour

ceFY

11 A

ctua

lFY

12 A

ctua

l%

Chg

.FY

13 A

ctua

l%

Chg

.FY

14 A

ctua

l%

Chg

.FY

15 B

udge

t%

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15 R

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emen

t Pay

men

ts:

- B

ase

Paym

ents

41,4

84,7

1242

,306

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2.0%

42,2

76,7

35-0

.1%

47,8

33,2

5513

.1%

40,2

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01-1

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(4,3

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5.9%

- S

trate

gic

Con

tribu

tion

Paym

ents

8,54

4,64

78,

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1.8%

8,70

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559,

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581,

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0.3%

08,

581,

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S

ubto

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50,0

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50,9

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ino

Rev

enue

*4,

500,

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4,50

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4,15

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/A4,

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6.3%

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Inco

me

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ents

2,49

47,

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Atto

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Gen

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me

**(1

45,1

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010

0.0%

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Tot

al -

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Rev

enue

54,3

86,7

0755

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2.1%

50,9

92,3

15-8

.1%

60,5

58,9

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.8%

53,2

55,2

91-1

2.1%

(134

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3%

FUN

D F

OR

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EA

LT

HY

MA

INE

(FH

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EN

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BA

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EN

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* C

asin

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even

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flect

s tha

t por

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of th

e St

ate's

shar

e of

pro

ceed

s fro

m sl

ot m

achi

nes a

t the

com

mer

cial

race

trac

k in

Ban

gor d

esig

nate

d fo

r the

Fun

d fo

r a H

ealth

y M

aine

. Fo

r fis

cal y

ears

200

9-10

, 201

0-11

, and

20

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2, P

L 20

09, c

. 462

, Pt.

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appe

d th

e pr

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ds tr

ansf

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d to

the

Fund

for a

Hea

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ne a

t $4.

5 m

illio

n pe

r yea

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ith th

e ba

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to th

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ener

al F

und.

PL

2011

c. 3

80, P

art I

I ext

ende

d th

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.5

mill

ion

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2012

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PL20

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re-d

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ofth

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rto

the

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and

PL20

11,c

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re-d

irect

edth

ere

mai

ning

$2.5

mill

ion

ofth

e20

12-1

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nsfe

rto

the

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eral

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.**

Beg

inni

ng in

FY

10, t

his c

ateg

ory

refle

cts r

even

ue tr

ansf

ers f

rom

the

Fund

for a

Hea

lthy

Mai

ne to

Gen

eral

Fun

d un

dedi

cate

d re

venu

e to

off

set r

even

ue re

duct

ions

from

the

impl

emen

tatio

n o

f PL

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, c. 4

67, w

hich

lim

ited

the

sale

of c

erta

in fl

avor

ed c

igar

s and

cig

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tes b

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ning

July

1, 2

009.

PL

2011

c. 3

80, P

art I

I elim

inat

ed th

is tr

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ffec

tive

July

1, 2

011.

Rev

enue

For

ecas

ting

Com

mitt

ee -

May

201

5 Fo

reca

stA

ppen

dix

C -

Fund

for

a H

ealth

y M

aine

Sum

mar

y T

able

- Pa

ge 1

of

3

C-1

Page 21: General Fund Revenue - Maine

Upd

ated

4/3

0/20

15 2

:33

PM

Sour

ceFY

16 B

udge

t%

Chg

.R

ecom

. Chg

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16 R

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ts:

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40,9

57,9

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40,9

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tion

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ents

8,44

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08,

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665

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8,27

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.0%

S

ubto

tal T

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49,4

04,9

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377

49,4

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Cas

ino

Rev

enue

*4,

473,

646

1.2%

57,6

994,

531,

345

5.7%

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8,38

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4,57

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0%

Inco

me

from

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stm

ents

15,3

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9.9%

3,97

919

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5%25

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64.7

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220

31,5

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Atto

rney

Gen

eral

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mbu

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ents

an

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me

0N

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00

N/A

Tot

al -

FHM

Rev

enue

53,8

94,0

081.

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,055

53,9

60,0

631.

6%52

,913

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,497

52,9

78,1

54-1

.8%

Cha

nge

in B

ienn

ial T

otal

s13

0,55

2

FUN

D F

OR

A H

EA

LT

HY

MA

INE

(FH

M) R

EV

EN

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RE

VE

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E F

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ING

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ITT

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RE

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EN

DA

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NS

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Y 2

015

FOR

EC

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* C

asin

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even

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flect

s tha

t por

tion

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ate's

shar

e of

pro

ceed

s fro

m sl

ot m

achi

nes a

t the

com

mer

cial

race

trac

k in

Ban

gor d

esig

nate

d fo

r the

Fun

d fo

r a H

ealth

y M

aine

.

(TO

BA

CC

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ET

TL

EM

EN

T P

AY

ME

NT

S)

Rev

enue

For

ecas

ting

Com

mitt

ee -

May

201

5 Fo

reca

stA

ppen

dix

C -

Fund

for

a H

ealth

y M

aine

Sum

mar

y T

able

- Pa

ge 2

of

3

C-2

Page 22: General Fund Revenue - Maine

Upd

ated

4/3

0/20

15 2

:33

PM

Sour

ceFY

18

Proj

ectio

ns%

Chg

.R

ecom

. C

hg.

FY18

Rev

ised

% C

hg.

FY19

Pr

ojec

tions

% C

hg.

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om.

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.FY

19 R

evis

ed%

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.

Toba

cco

Settl

emen

t Pay

men

ts:

- B

ase

Paym

ents

43,9

42,6

869.

6%0

43,9

42,6

869.

6%43

,012

,837

-2.1

%0

43,0

12,8

37-2

.1%

- S

trate

gic

Con

tribu

tion

Paym

ents

**

0-1

00.0

%0

0-1

00.0

%0

N/A

00

N/A

S

ubto

tal T

SPs

43,9

42,6

86-9

.2%

043

,942

,686

-9.2

%43

,012

,837

-2.1

%0

43,0

12,8

37-2

.1%

Cas

ino

Rev

enue

*4,

563,

566

1.0%

58,8

594,

622,

425

1.0%

4,60

9,20

21.

0%59

,448

4,66

8,65

01.

0%

Inco

me

from

Inve

stm

ents

25,3

590.

0%6,

220

31,5

790.

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,359

0.0%

6,22

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0.0%

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rney

Gen

eral

Rei

mbu

rsem

ents

and

Oth

er

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me

0N

/A0

0N

/A0

N/A

00

N/A

Tot

al -

FHM

Rev

enue

48,5

31,6

11-8

.3%

65,0

7948

,596

,690

-8.3

%47

,647

,398

-1.8

%65

,668

47,7

13,0

66-1

.8%

Cha

nge

in B

ienn

ial T

otal

s13

0,74

7

* C

asin

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even

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flect

s tha

t por

tion

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e St

ate's

shar

e of

pro

ceed

s fro

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ot m

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nes a

t the

com

mer

cial

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trac

k in

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gor d

esig

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r the

Fun

d fo

r a H

ealth

y M

aine

.

** B

egin

ning

in F

Y 1

8, th

e te

n-ye

ar st

rate

gic

cont

ribut

ion

paym

ent w

ill e

nd w

ith th

e fu

ndin

g na

tiona

lly fo

r thi

s pur

pose

retu

rned

to th

e re

gula

r dis

tribu

tion

pool

.

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D F

OR

A H

EA

LT

HY

MA

INE

(FH

M) R

EV

EN

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CC

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ET

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EM

EN

T P

AY

ME

NT

S)R

EV

EN

UE

FO

RE

CA

STIN

G C

OM

MIT

TE

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EC

OM

ME

ND

AT

ION

S - M

AY

201

5 FO

RE

CA

ST

Rev

enue

For

ecas

ting

Com

mitt

ee -

May

201

5 Fo

reca

stA

ppen

dix

C -

Fund

for

a H

ealth

y M

aine

Sum

mar

y T

able

- Pa

ge 3

of

3

C-3

Page 23: General Fund Revenue - Maine

Appendix D

Medicaid/MaineCare Dedicated Revenue

Taxes Summary Table

Page 24: General Fund Revenue - Maine

DR

AFT

4/3

0/20

15 2

:35

PM

Sour

ceFY

11 A

ctua

l FY

12 A

ctua

l%

Chg

.FY

13 A

ctua

l%

Chg

.FY

14 A

ctua

l%

Chg

.FY

15 B

udge

t%

Chg

.R

ecom

. C

hg.

FY15

Rev

ised

% C

hg.

Nur

sing

Fac

ility

Tax

*31

,728

,140

34,0

73,3

277.

4%35

,370

,670

3.8%

34,1

68,1

65-3

.4%

35,7

29,7

004.

6%0

35,7

29,7

004.

6%

Res

iden

tial T

reat

men

t Fac

ility

(IC

Fs/M

R)

Tax*

1,81

7,76

82,

113,

206

16.3

%1,

929,

457

-8.7

%1,

878,

734

-2.6

%1,

970,

446

4.9%

(172

,546

)1,

797,

900

-4.3

%

Hos

pita

l Tax

**

80,5

95,4

9980

,909

,981

0.4%

80,9

42,0

500.

0%97

,208

,195

20.1

%97

,355

,522

0.2%

097

,355

,522

0.2%

Serv

ice

Prov

ider

Tax

- Pr

ivat

e N

on-

Med

ical

Inst

itutio

ns (P

NM

Is)

33,8

80,3

7034

,829

,087

2.8%

34,9

98,8

760.

5%35

,354

,849

1.0%

36,4

55,0

473.

1%(9

3,00

0)36

,362

,047

2.8%

Tot

al -

Hea

lth C

are

Prov

ider

Tax

es14

8,02

1,77

715

1,92

5,60

02.

6%15

3,24

1,05

40.

9%16

8,60

9,94

410

.0%

171,

510,

715

1.7%

(265

,546

)17

1,24

5,16

91.

6%

ME

DIC

AID

/MA

INE

CA

RE

DE

DIC

AT

ED

RE

VE

NU

E T

AX

ES

RE

VE

NU

E F

OR

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AST

ING

CO

MM

ITT

EE

RE

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MM

EN

DA

TIO

NS

- MA

Y 2

015

FOR

EC

AST

* T

he n

ursi

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cilit

y an

d re

side

ntia

l tre

atm

ent f

acili

ty ta

x ra

tes w

ere

decr

ease

d in

PL

2007

, c. 5

39, P

art X

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m 6

.0%

to 5

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beg

inni

ng in

FY

09 c

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sten

t with

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ral l

aw. P

L 20

11, c

. 411

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ease

s the

rate

s bac

k to

6%

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ive

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1, 2

011

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iste

nt w

ith fe

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l law

.

** T

he h

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ase

year

was

mod

ified

in P

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. 545

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g du

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r 200

6 be

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9; a

gain

in P

L 20

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. 571

to h

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tal f

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cale

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r 200

8 be

ginn

ing

in F

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1 an

d ag

ain

in P

L 20

13, c

. 368

to h

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tal f

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l yea

rs e

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g du

ring

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yea

r 201

2 be

ginn

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in F

Y 1

4.

Rev

enue

For

ecas

ting

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ee -

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201

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reca

stA

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D -

Med

icai

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e D

edic

ated

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enue

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es S

umm

ary

Tab

le -

Page

1 o

f 3

D-1

Page 25: General Fund Revenue - Maine

DR

AFT

4/3

0/20

15 2

:35

PM

Sour

ceFY

16

Bud

get

% C

hg.

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om.

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.FY

16 R

evis

ed%

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.FY

17

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get

% C

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om.

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.FY

17 R

evis

ed%

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.

Nur

sing

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ility

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*36

,449

,568

2.0%

036

,449

,568

2.0%

36,4

49,5

680.

0%0

36,4

49,5

680.

0%

Res

iden

tial T

reat

men

t Fac

ility

(IC

Fs/M

R) T

ax*

1,97

0,44

60.

0%(1

72,5

46)

1,79

7,90

00.

0%1,

970,

446

0.0%

(172

,546

)1,

797,

900

0.0%

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pita

l Tax

**

97,0

62,8

66-0

.3%

097

,062

,866

-0.3

%97

,062

,866

0.0%

097

,062

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Serv

ice

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ider

Tax

- Pr

ivat

e N

on-M

edic

al

Inst

itutio

ns (P

NM

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36,4

55,0

470.

0%(9

3,00

0)36

,362

,047

0.0%

36,4

55,0

470.

0%(9

3,00

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,362

,047

0.0%

Tot

al -

Hea

lth C

are

Prov

ider

Tax

es17

1,93

7,92

70.

2%(2

65,5

46)

171,

672,

381

0.2%

171,

937,

927

0.0%

(265

,546

)17

1,67

2,38

10.

0%

Cha

nge

in B

ienn

ial T

otal

s(5

31,0

92)

ME

DIC

AID

/MA

INE

CA

RE

DE

DIC

AT

ED

RE

VE

NU

E T

AX

ES

RE

VE

NU

E F

OR

EC

AST

ING

CO

MM

ITT

EE

RE

CO

MM

EN

DA

TIO

NS

- MA

Y 2

015

FOR

EC

AST

* T

he n

ursi

ng fa

cilit

y an

d re

side

ntia

l tre

atm

ent f

acili

ty ta

x ra

tes w

ere

decr

ease

d in

PL

2007

, c. 5

39, P

art X

fro

m 6

.0%

to 5

.5%

beg

inni

ng in

FY

09 c

onsi

sten

t with

fede

ral l

aw. P

L 20

11, c

. 411

in

crea

ses t

he ra

tes b

ack

to 6

% e

ffec

tive

Oct

ober

1, 2

011

cons

iste

nt w

ith fe

dera

l law

.

** T

he h

ospi

tal t

ax b

ase

year

was

mod

ified

in P

L 20

07, c

. 545

, to

hosp

ital f

isca

l yea

rs e

ndin

g du

ring

cale

ndar

yea

r 200

6 be

ginn

ing

in F

Y 0

9; a

gain

in P

L 20

09, c

. 571

to h

ospi

tal f

isca

l yea

rs

endi

ng d

urin

g ca

lend

ar y

ear 2

008

begi

nnin

g in

FY

11

and

agai

n in

PL

2013

, c. 3

68 to

hos

pita

l fis

cal y

ears

end

ing

durin

g ca

lend

ar y

ear 2

012

begi

nnin

g in

FY

14.

Rev

enue

For

ecas

ting

Com

mitt

ee -

May

201

5 Fo

reca

stA

ppen

dix

D -

Med

icai

d/M

aine

Car

e D

edic

ated

Rev

enue

Tax

es S

umm

ary

Tab

le -

Page

2 o

f 3

D-2

Page 26: General Fund Revenue - Maine

DR

AFT

4/3

0/20

15 2

:35

PM

Sour

ceFY

18

Proj

ectio

ns%

Chg

.R

ecom

. C

hg.

FY18

Rev

ised

% C

hg.

FY19

Pr

ojec

tions

% C

hg.

Rec

om.

Chg

.FY

19 R

evis

ed%

Chg

.

Nur

sing

Fac

ility

Tax

*36

,449

,568

0.0%

036

,449

,568

0.0%

36,4

49,5

680.

0%0

36,4

49,5

680.

0%

Res

iden

tial T

reat

men

t Fac

ility

(IC

Fs/M

R) T

ax*

1,97

0,44

60.

0%(1

72,5

46)

1,79

7,90

00.

0%1,

970,

446

0.0%

(172

,546

)1,

797,

900

0.0%

Hos

pita

l Tax

**

97,0

62,8

660.

0%0

97,0

62,8

660.

0%97

,062

,866

0.0%

097

,062

,866

0.0%

Serv

ice

Prov

ider

Tax

- Pr

ivat

e N

on-M

edic

al

Inst

itutio

ns (P

NM

Is)

36,4

55,0

470.

0%(9

3,00

0)36

,362

,047

0.0%

36,4

55,0

470.

0%(9

3,00

0)36

,362

,047

0.0%

Tot

al -

Hea

lth C

are

Prov

ider

Tax

es17

1,93

7,92

70.

0%(2

65,5

46)

171,

672,

381

0.0%

171,

937,

927

0.0%

(265

,546

)17

1,67

2,38

10.

0%

Cha

nge

in B

ienn

ial T

otal

s(5

31,0

92)

* T

he n

ursi

ng fa

cilit

y an

d re

side

ntia

l tre

atm

ent f

acili

ty ta

x ra

tes w

ere

decr

ease

d in

PL

2007

, c. 5

39, P

art X

fro

m 6

.0%

to 5

.5%

beg

inni

ng in

FY

09 c

onsi

sten

t with

fede

ral l

aw. P

L 20

11, c

. 41

1 in

crea

ses t

he ra

tes b

ack

to 6

% e

ffec

tive

Oct

ober

1, 2

011

cons

iste

nt w

ith fe

dera

l law

.

** T

he h

ospi

tal t

ax b

ase

year

was

mod

ified

in P

L 20

07, c

. 545

, to

hosp

ital f

isca

l yea

rs e

ndin

g du

ring

cale

ndar

yea

r 200

6 be

ginn

ing

in F

Y 0

9; a

gain

in P

L 20

09, c

. 571

to h

ospi

tal f

isca

l yea

rs

endi

ng d

urin

g ca

lend

ar y

ear 2

008

begi

nnin

g in

FY

11

and

agai

n in

PL

2013

, c. 3

68 to

hos

pita

l fis

cal y

ears

end

ing

durin

g ca

lend

ar y

ear 2

012

begi

nnin

g in

FY

14.

ME

DIC

AID

/MA

INE

CA

RE

DE

DIC

AT

ED

RE

VE

NU

E T

AX

ES

RE

VE

NU

E F

OR

EC

AST

ING

CO

MM

ITT

EE

RE

CO

MM

EN

DA

TIO

NS

- MA

Y 2

015

FOR

EC

AST

Rev

enue

For

ecas

ting

Com

mitt

ee -

May

201

5 Fo

reca

stA

ppen

dix

D -

Med

icai

d/M

aine

Car

e D

edic

ated

Rev

enue

Tax

es S

umm

ary

Tab

le -

Page

3 o

f 3

D-3

Page 27: General Fund Revenue - Maine

Appendix E

Consensus Economic Forecasting Commission Report

April 1, 2015

Page 28: General Fund Revenue - Maine

Report of the

CONSENSUS ECONOMIC FORECASTING COMMISSION

April 1, 2015

Commissioners

John C. Atkinson

Dr. Sheena S. Bunnell

Professor of Business Economics

University of Maine Farmington

James A. Clair, Chair

Vice President

Goold Health Systems, an Emdeon Company

Gradon R. Haehnel

Manager of Engineering & Asset Management

Emera Maine

Eric N. Stinneford

Vice President – Controller, Treasurer & Clerk

Central Maine Power

Page 29: General Fund Revenue - Maine

1

Summary

The Maine Consensus Economic Forecasting Commission (CEFC) convened on March 30,

2015, to review and revise the forecast through 2019. This report provides a summary of the

Commission’s findings.

The Maine and U.S. economies continued to show signs of improvement since the Consensus

Economic Forecasting Commission (CEFC) met in October 2014.

Personal income in Maine grew 2.9% from 2013 to 2014, while wage and salary income, which

makes up around half of total personal income, grew 2.7% over the same period. The debt-to-

income level for Maine businesses and households continued to rise to new levels in the third

quarter of 2014. The Consumer Price Index was unchanged in February 2015 from a year ago,

driven by declines in energy prices.

Nationwide, consumer sentiment in February 2015 was 16.9% higher than one year ago while

small business optimism increased 7.2% over the previous year’s level.

The price of crude oil decreased 25.5% in the fourth quarter of 2014 to around $77 per barrel. As

a result, heating oil prices declined throughout most of the heating season and were considerably

lower than the past three years while gasoline prices are also much lower. The number of new

automobile titles issued by the Maine Bureau of Motor Vehicles decreased 2.2% in FY 2014

compared to FY 2013, while the number of used auto titles increased 7.7%.

Existing single-family home sales in Maine were up 8.6% in January 2015 compared to January

2014 and housing permits for the February 2014-January 2015 year were 1.7% higher than the

previous 12-month period. The median home price in the Portland-South Portland-Biddeford

Metropolitan Statistical Area (which encompasses all of York, Cumberland, and Sagadahoc

counties) increased 0.5% year-over-year in the fourth quarter of 2014. Mortgage delinquency

rates in Maine have been declining but at a slower pace than nationally. The foreclosure rate in

Maine was 0.49% in the third quarter of 2014 and remained above the national rate for a ninth

straight quarter.

Historical employment revisions and new 2014 data for employment, income, CPI, and corporate

profits have been released since the CEFC last met. These revisions and new data contributed to

adjustments in the forecast. Additionally, the Commission continued to largely follow an

alternative scenario (“LowPop”) created by the Office of Policy and Management, which

provides staff support to the CEFC. This alternative scenario is based on the Moody’s Analytics

baseline with adjustments that lowered the population and employment growth forecasts. These

adjustments are a result of the consensus that the national level forecasts are based on overly

optimistic population projections for the state of Maine, causing employment forecasts, among

other things, to grow at an unattainable rate.

There were three key factors identified during the CEFC’s discussion as impacts on the forecast:

Maine’s demographic outlook, the recent steep decline in oil prices, and the strengthening U.S.

dollar. Employment growth will likely be held back by the limited availability of workers in the

next few years resulting from Maine’s lack of growth in the working age population. This was a

consideration in the previous CEFC forecast as well, so did not result in any significant changes

to this forecast. The drop in oil prices and the surge in the dollar have both occurred since the

Page 30: General Fund Revenue - Maine

2

previous forecast, however, and so contributed to changes in the forecast for CPI, personal

income, and corporate profits.

Overall, the employment forecast saw only minor modifications to the growth rates, although the

lower 2014 base results in employment levels that are lower than previously forecast. The 2019

employment level is nearly the same as the 2007 pre-recession peak. The largest change to CPI is

in 2015: a significant downward revision resulting from the decline in oil prices. The remaining

years were each revised slightly downward. Total personal income was also revised downward in

2015, resulting from a downward revision to wage and salary income linked to lower inflation.

2016-2019 wage and salary income and total personal income were revised upward. While many

of the forecast indicators were taken from the LowPop scenario, some adjustments were made to

specific years and in some cases, the IHS forecast seemed to be more realistic and so was used

instead.

The table below provides the forecast’s major indicators.

In deliberations leading to consensus, the CEFC considered information presented by several

state agencies, including the Maine Department of Labor, Maine Revenue Services, and the

Office of Policy and Management. The following sections summarize these reports.

Office of Policy and Management

In 2013, Maine’s real Gross Domestic Product was $51.2 billion, with $44.1 billion coming from

private industries and $7.1 billion from government (federal, state, and local). All of Maine’s

recent growth in GDP has come from private industry. Maine’s total real GDP increased 0.9%

from 2012 to 2013, the second year in a row of GDP growth. However, this was half the rate of

national GDP growth, which was 1.8% from 2012 to 2013.

According to preliminary estimates from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, total personal

income grew 2.9% from 2013 to 2014 and wage and salary income grew 2.7% year-over-year.

Wage and salary disbursements, which are the largest component of personal income, averaged

around $25.5 billion in 2014 (seasonally adjusted at annual rates). Total personal income

averaged around $56 billion. Maine’s debt to income ratio was 24.2% in the third quarter of

2014. The ratio is at its highest point since the first quarter of 2008.

Calendar Years 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Wage & Salary Employment (Annual Percentage Change)

CEFC Forecast 11/2014 0.6 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.1

CEFC Forecast 04/2015 0.6 0.4 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1

Personal Income (Annual Percentage Change)

CEFC Forecast 11/2014 2.6 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.9 3.4 3.1

CEFC Forecast 04/2015 2.6 2.9 3.1 3.8 4.4 3.8 3.5

Wage and Salary Income (Annual Percentage Change)

CEFC Forecast 11/2014 2.2 2.9 3.9 4.0 3.6 3.4 3.0

CEFC Forecast 04/2015 2.2 2.7 3.4 4.5 4.1 3.9 3.6

CPI (Annual Percentage Change)

CEFC Forecast 11/2014 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.8 2.9 2.6

CEFC Forecast 04/2015 1.5 1.6 0.5 2.1 2.4 2.6 2.3

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3

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) was flat from February 2014 to February 2015, dragged down

by significant energy price deflation. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, rose

1.7% over that same period. The Chained Consumer Price Index (Chained CPI) declined 0.5%

from February 2014 to February 2015, again driven by the drop in energy prices. Core inflation

rose 1.5% over the same period. Chained CPI allows for substitutions in the basket of goods and

services being measured.

In February 2015, the survey-based University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

decreased 2.8% month-over-month but was up 16.9% from a year ago. The survey-based

National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index was up

0.1% from the previous month and was up 7.2% from February 2014.

The price of Brent crude oil plunged starting in the latter half of 2015 and was just $77.03 per

barrel in the fourth quarter of 2014, a decrease of 25.5% from the third quarter of 2014 and a

29.6% decrease from the fourth quarter of 2013. The price of heating oil in Maine began

declining near the end of the 2013-2014 heating season and has continued to drop throughout

most of the 2014-2015 heating season, most recently at $2.76/gallon. The price of heating oil in

Maine had been fairly steady over the past three heating seasons, averaging around $3.75/gallon

before the recent decline in crude oil prices. The price of gasoline in New England on March 23,

2015 averaged $2.47, a decrease of $0.05 per gallon over the previous week and $1.20 lower

than one year ago. The price of gasoline has dropped $1.37 per gallon since the July 2014 peak.

The number of new automobile titles issued by the Maine Bureau of Motor Vehicles decreased

2.2% from FY 2013 to FY 2014, while the number of used automobile titles issued increased

7.7%. A major registrant re-titled a very large fleet of trailers in FY13, leading to the substantial

decrease in trailer titles in FY14.

Single family existing-home sales in Maine were up 8.6% in January 2015 compared to January

2014. Home sales in Maine have continued to grow year-over-year in recent months while sales

in the U.S. have been declining. Average monthly single unit housing permits in Maine in the

12-month period from February 2014 through January 2015 were 1.7% higher than in the

previous 12-month period. The median home price in the Portland – South Portland – Biddeford

metropolitan area increased 0.5% year-over-year in the fourth quarter of 2014. The median home

price in the fourth quarter of 2014 was $229,000. The share of mortgages in Maine that are

delinquent 30 days or more was 6.5% in the third quarter of 2014. The rate of delinquencies in

Maine has been above the U.S. rate for ten straight quarters now. Maine’s foreclosure rate was

0.49% in the third quarter of 2014, down slightly from the previous quarter. Maine’s foreclosure

rate has been above the U.S. rate for nine straight quarters now.

Full background materials are available at:

http://www.maine.gov/economist/forecasts/index.shtml

Maine Department of Labor

Labor market conditions continue to improve. The monthly survey of households indicates that

the February unemployment rate of 5.0% was the lowest in nearly seven years and the

employment to population ratio remains above the national average. On the hand, the labor force

participation rate has been trending lower since the middle of 2013. The monthly survey of

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4

employer payrolls indicates job growth has slowed. On an annual average basis, the number of

nonfarm payroll jobs increased 2,700 in 2014. The job gain (from the payroll survey) was much

smaller than the 7,000 decline in the number of unemployed (from the household survey). This is

the result of thousands of Baby Boomers exiting the workforce for retirement.

Aging Baby Boomers will be a major constraint, limiting growth potential for years to come.

Maine has the highest share of people in their 60s and the second highest share in their 50s in the

nation. Thousands will be retiring each year for the next two decades. At the other end of the

spectrum, Maine has the lowest share of people under age 25 to replace retirees in the workforce,

the result of a precipitous decline in births in the 1990s. The size of the labor force reached a

plateau in 2005; it began to decline in 2013.

If the working-age population was unchanged and 1) the unemployment rate declined to 4.0%,

and 2) labor force participation rates of those under age 55 returned to the average that prevailed

before the recession, as many as 24,000 more people could be employed. But the working-age

population is declining. The number age 16 to 54 (whose labor force participation has not

recovered to pre-recession levels) is forecast to decline more than 6,500 per year through 2022.

So the challenge for forecasters is what will be the balance between potentially lower

unemployment and higher labor force participation versus fewer working-age people?

Economists at the Center for Workforce Research believe job growth in the next year or two will

be modest. After that it will be very difficult to post job growth unless we are able to entice

thousands of working-age people to move into the state.

The presentation is available at

www.maine.gov/labor/cwri/publications/pdf/CEFC_March_2015.pdf

Maine Revenue Services

Overall, revenues seem to be generally on track. Total general fund revenues for the month of

February 2015 were over budget by $37.8 million and over budget for the fiscal year to date by

$42.4 million (2.2%). This was due largely to the individual income tax line. The individual

income tax was over budget by $58.8 million (6.8%) fiscal year to date, largely because refunds

were $49 million under projections in the month of February. This was likely due at least in part

to the tax refund fraud that was occurring nationally, which led to Maine slowing the refund

process considerably. March has started to catch up with refunds, although they remain under

budget. It looks like April 15 could wrap up a strong individual income tax season. Withholding

is up 5.4% over the same period last year and the final estimated payment for 2014 was up 2.5%

over 2013. The corporate income tax was under budget by $14.3 million (15.6%) year to date.

March looks like it will be okay, but the risk going forward is on the down side due to the strong

U.S. dollar.

The sales and use tax line was just 0.1% under budget for the fiscal year to date, although $2.8

million (3.7%) under for February 2015. This is likely due to the weather and could rebound

once spring weather arrives. February receipts represent January sales. Year-over-year taxable

sales growth in January was 1.0%, and the 12-month moving total ending in January 2015 was

up 3.9% over the previous year. Auto/transportation sales were 3.4% lower in January year-over-

year, likely due to the weather.

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5

The highway fund was just 0.4% over budget fiscal year-to-date, with fuel taxes just 0.1% under

budget. For fiscal year-to-date compared to last year, fuel taxes were actually up 0.6%. This is

likely helped by the decline in prices at the pump.

Macroeconomic Assumptions

Two different baseline economic forecasts were examined at the meeting: the Moody’s Analytics

baseline scenario for February 2015 and the IHS Economics baseline scenario for March 2015.

Both were the most recent available forecasts. Additionally, OPM provided an alternative

scenario based on assumptions of low population growth that limit employment growth

(LowPop). Each forecast was based on a different set of national macroeconomic assumptions.

The LowPop scenario was based on the Moody’s Analytics baseline scenario with population

projections taken from OPM’s updated projections to 2032 adjusted for recent Census Bureau

estimates, and industry sector employment growth adjustments by OPM staff. These forecasts

were then compared to the CEFC’s November 2014 forecast. In many cases, the CEFC felt the

LowPop assumptions and forecast better reflected their current views of the economy, however

the IHS forecast seemed more realistic in a few places. The key assumptions made by the CEFC

are below.

Maine population growth is likely to limit employment growth over the next few years. A

return to pre-recession employment would require some combination of unprecedented

labor force participation and very strong in-migration.

The lack of available workforce will likely contribute to upward pressure on wages in the

near future.

Inflation in 2015 will be low due to low oil prices and the strong U.S. dollar. The

strengthening of the dollar combined with a weakening global economy will contribute

both to lower inflation and to lower GDP growth.

Consensus Forecast

The CEFC members continued to believe that the national forecasts are likely overly optimistic

in their population and employment projections for the state. The previous forecast, as well as

this new forecast, relied on the LowPop scenario, designed to address these concerns. While only

minor adjustments were made to the growth rates, the 2014 actual employment level was lower

than previously forecast, resulting in lower employment levels going forward. This forecast

reaches an employment level of 617,600 in 2019.

Wage and salary income growth was revised downward for 2015 due to the lower CPI but

pinned to the IHS growth rate of 3.4% rather than the LowPop growth rate of 2.6%, which was

seen as too strong a downward revision for the current withholding data. 2015-2019 were revised

upward and adopted from the LowPop scenario. Supplements to wages and salaries and personal

current transfer receipts were taken from the LowPop scenario as well; both were modest upward

revisions for most years, although 2015 supplements and 2017 transfer receipts were revised

slightly downward. Nonfarm proprietors’ income was set as the average of the IHS and LowPop

growth rates, with rates ranging from 3.8% in 2018 to 4.9% in 2016. All years were revised

downward except for 2019, which was revised upward. Dividends, interest, and rent for 2015

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6

was revised downward and taken from the IHS forecast, while the remaining years were adopted

from the LowPop scenario. 2016 and 2019 were revised downward while 2017 and 2018 saw

considerable upward revisions resulting in part from expectations of higher interest rate growth

in those years.

The overall result for total personal income was a 0.4 percentage point revision downward for

2015, while 2016-2019 were all revised upward: by 0.1 percentage point in 2016, 0.5 percentage

points in 2017 and 0.4 percentage points in 2018 and 2019.

The CEFC set its 2015 forecast for inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, at 0.5%,

slightly lower than the LowPop forecast, while the remaining years were taken from the IHS

forecast. 2015 was revised downward from 2.1% to 0.5%, reflecting low oil prices. Each

remaining year was revised downward by 0.3 or 0.4 percentage points.

The forecast for corporate profits was set at 6.0% for 2015 and 2016, which was a considerable

downward revision for 2015 to reflect concerns that the weaker global economy and

strengthening dollar would make the previous growth rate of 9.9% unattainable. 2016 and 2017

were unchanged, while 2018 was revised upward and 2019 was revised downward.

Overall, the primary source of concern for the CEFC continues to be Maine’s demographic

situation, with an aging population and little to no population growth. Both the low oil prices and

the strong U.S. dollar played a role in the revisions made to this forecast.

The following page provides the full forecast.

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7

April 2015 Forecast2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

CPI-U* (Annual Change) 1.5% 1.6% 0.5% 2.1% 2.4% 2.6% 2.3% CPI for Energy Prices** (Annual Change) -0.7% -0.3% -9.2% 4.3% 6.4% 8.0% 4.4% CPI for New Vehicles** (Annual Change) 1.1% 0.3% 1.1% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1% -0.1% New Vehicle Registrations** (Annual Change) 8.4% 12.3% -10.2% -2.4% -1.7% 0.5% 2.6% Personal Savings Rate** 4.9% 4.9% 4.6% 4.4% 4.3% 4.2% 3.8% Maine Unemployment Rate** 6.7% 5.8% 5.4% 5.2% 5.0% 4.8% 4.8% 3-Month Treasury Bill Rate** 0.06% 0.03% 0.16% 1.49% 2.76% 3.23% 3.34% 10-Year Treasury Note Rate** 2.35% 2.54% 2.65% 3.76% 4.56% 4.51% 4.50% Before-Tax Corporate Profits* (Annual Change) 4.6% 8.3% 6.0% 6.0% 1.4% 1.6% 3.2%

Maine Wage & Salary Employment* (thousands) 601.7 604.4 609.8 613.8 616.1 617.0 617.6 Natural Resources 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 Construction 25.6 25.8 25.9 25.7 25.7 26.1 26.2 Manufacturing 50.4 50.2 50.2 50.1 49.9 49.4 49.0 Trade/Trans./Public Utils. 118.0 119.0 120.3 121.2 121.2 121.0 120.9 Information 7.6 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.4 7.5 Financial Activities 30.4 30.4 30.7 30.6 30.5 30.0 29.7 Prof. & Business Services 61.5 63.3 65.3 66.8 67.6 67.8 68.0 Education & Health Services 121.9 122.4 124.2 126.0 127.4 128.4 129.5 Leisure & Hospitality Services 62.7 62.6 63.3 63.3 63.6 63.9 63.9 Other Services 20.7 20.9 20.9 20.9 20.8 20.7 20.5 Government 100.5 99.8 99.3 99.3 99.4 99.8 99.9 Agricultural Employment 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.0

Maine Wage & Salary Employment* (Annual Change) 0.6% 0.4% 0.9% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% Natural Resources -4.0% 4.2% 2.8% 0.2% 0.1% -0.3% -0.4% Construction 0.0% 0.8% 0.4% -0.9% 0.0% 1.4% 0.6% Manufacturing -0.8% -0.4% 0.0% -0.3% -0.4% -1.0% -0.8% Trade/Trans./Public Utils. 0.5% 0.8% 1.1% 0.8% 0.0% -0.2% -0.1% Information -3.8% -1.3% -0.3% -0.2% -0.2% -0.2% 0.4% Financial Activities 0.7% 0.0% 0.9% -0.1% -0.3% -1.7% -1.0% Prof. & Business Services 3.4% 2.9% 3.2% 2.2% 1.3% 0.3% 0.3% Education & Health Services 0.5% 0.4% 1.5% 1.4% 1.2% 0.7% 0.9% Leisure & Hospitality Services 1.8% -0.2% 1.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% Other Services 3.5% 1.0% -0.1% -0.1% -0.4% -0.6% -0.8% Government -1.0% -0.7% -0.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% Agricultural Employment 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Personal Income* ($ million) 54,359 55,958 57,706 59,923 62,530 64,922 67,163 Wages & Salaries* 24,848 25,517 26,384 27,559 28,687 29,804 30,868 Supplements to Wages & Salaries* 6,357 6,484 6,604 6,818 7,048 7,274 7,524 Nonfarm Proprietors' Income* 4,043 4,313 4,514 4,734 4,918 5,104 5,321 Farm Proprietors' Income** 97 100 123 130 138 146 153 Dividends, Interest, & Rent* 9,477 9,795 9,981 10,459 11,287 11,802 12,100 Dividends 2,661 2,778 2,883 2,961 3,104 3,234 3,340 Interest 4,327 4,358 4,347 4,794 5,488 5,911 6,123 Rent 2,489 2,659 2,751 2,704 2,695 2,658 2,638 Personal Current Transfer Receipts* 12,521 12,815 13,294 13,588 13,981 14,483 15,042 Less: Contributions for Social Ins.** 4,147 4,287 4,423 4,617 4,803 4,987 5,162 Adjustment for Residence** 1,163 1,221 1,229 1,251 1,274 1,296 1,319

Personal Income* (Annual Change) 2.6% 2.9% 3.1% 3.8% 4.4% 3.8% 3.5% Wages & Salaries* 2.2% 2.7% 3.4% 4.5% 4.1% 3.9% 3.6% Supplements to Wages & Salaries* 3.4% 2.0% 1.9% 3.2% 3.4% 3.2% 3.4% Nonfarm Proprietors' Income* 5.9% 6.7% 4.6% 4.9% 3.9% 3.8% 4.2% Farm Proprietors' Income** 18.8% 3.6% 22.7% 6.0% 5.8% 5.5% 5.4% Dividends, Interest, & Rent* 2.4% 3.4% 1.9% 4.8% 7.9% 4.6% 2.5% Dividends -0.7% 4.4% 3.8% 2.7% 4.8% 4.2% 3.3% Interest -0.5% 0.7% -0.3% 10.3% 14.5% 7.7% 3.6% Rent 11.6% 6.9% 3.4% -1.7% -0.3% -1.4% -0.8% Personal Current Transfer Receipts* 6.3% 2.3% 3.7% 2.2% 2.9% 3.6% 3.9% Less: Contributions for Social Ins.** 16.0% 3.4% 3.2% 4.4% 4.0% 3.8% 3.5% Adjustment for Residence** 2.4% 5.0% 0.6% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.7% *CEFC Forecast **From IHS Economics March 2015, OPM Low Pop Scenario and Moody's Analytics Baseline, Feb. 2015 Remaining lines derived from CEFC forecast by CEFC staff and review ed by CEFC

Maine Consensus Economic Forecasting Commission

History Forecast

Page 36: General Fund Revenue - Maine

APPENDIX F

Maine Revenue Services

Recommendations

Table of Contents

Summary Maine Revenue Services Recommendations ................................................. F-1

Economic Assumptions and Revenue To Date ............................................................... F-3

Sales and Use Tax and Service Provider Tax ................................................................ F-11

Individual Income Tax ................................................................................................... F-30

Corporate Income Tax ................................................................................................... F-43

Estate Tax ...................................................................................................................... F-51

Page 37: General Fund Revenue - Maine

Summary

F-1

Page 38: General Fund Revenue - Maine

F-2

Page 39: General Fund Revenue - Maine

Economic Assumptions and

Revenue To Date

F-3

Page 40: General Fund Revenue - Maine

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Page 41: General Fund Revenue - Maine

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Page 42: General Fund Revenue - Maine

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Page 43: General Fund Revenue - Maine

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Page 44: General Fund Revenue - Maine

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Page 45: General Fund Revenue - Maine

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Page 46: General Fund Revenue - Maine

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Page 47: General Fund Revenue - Maine

Sales and Use Tax and

Service Provider Tax

F-11

Page 48: General Fund Revenue - Maine

4/2

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$142,0

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$19,8

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F-12

Page 49: General Fund Revenue - Maine

BU

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F-13

Page 50: General Fund Revenue - Maine

Mai

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Growth Rate

Thousands of Dollars

Bu

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F-14

Page 51: General Fund Revenue - Maine

Mai

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Off

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Tax

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5/1

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0%

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$1,6

25

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$1,6

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$1,7

25

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$1,7

75

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Growth Rate

Thousands of Dollars

Fo

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F-15

Page 52: General Fund Revenue - Maine

Mai

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Off

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-6%

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Growth Rate

Thousands of Dollars

Ge

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F-16

Page 53: General Fund Revenue - Maine

Mai

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Off

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Tax

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5/1

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15

-3%

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$1,9

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15

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$2,1

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0

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15

,00

0

$2,2

65

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0

Growth Rate

Thousands of Dollars

Oth

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F-17

Page 54: General Fund Revenue - Maine

Mai

ne

Rev

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Off

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Tax

Po

licy

5/1

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15

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%

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$3,1

80

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80

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80

,00

0

$3,9

80

,00

0

$4,1

80

,00

0

$4,3

80

,00

0

Growth Rate

Thousands of Dollars

Au

to/T

ran

sp

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ati

on

Tax

ab

le S

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s

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F-18

Page 55: General Fund Revenue - Maine

Mai

ne

Rev

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Off

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of

Tax

Po

licy

5/1

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15

-2%

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$1,8

50

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0

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50

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50

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50

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50

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0

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50

,00

0

Growth Rate

Thousands of Dollars

Re

sta

ura

nt

Ta

xa

ble

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les

J

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F-19

Page 56: General Fund Revenue - Maine

Mai

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Off

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of

Tax

Po

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5/1

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15

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%

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$59

5,0

00

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5,0

00

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00

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5,0

00

$79

5,0

00

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Thousands of Dollars

Lo

dg

ing

Ta

xa

ble

Sa

les

J

an

ua

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00

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F-20

Page 57: General Fund Revenue - Maine

Mai

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Off

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Tax

Po

licy

5/1

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$15

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00

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00

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0,0

00

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00

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00

Growth Rate

Thousands of Dollars

To

tal T

ax

ab

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ale

s

Ja

nu

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08

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F-21

Page 58: General Fund Revenue - Maine

Mai

ne

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Off

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Tax

Po

licy

5/1

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75

,00

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25

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25

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0

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Thousands of Dollars

Bu

sin

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s O

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xa

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F-22

Page 59: General Fund Revenue - Maine

Mai

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Off

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00

$16

,90

0,0

00

$17

,40

0,0

00

$17

,90

0,0

00

$18

,40

0,0

00

$18

,90

0,0

00

$19

,40

0,0

00

Growth Rate

Thousands of Dollars

To

tal T

ax

ab

le S

ale

s

Ja

nu

ary

20

08

to

Da

te

12

Mo

nth

Mo

vin

g T

ota

lG

row

th R

ate

F-23

Page 60: General Fund Revenue - Maine

Mai

ne

Rev

enu

e Se

rvic

es

Off

ice

of

Tax

Po

licy

5/1

/20

15

-9.0

%

-7.0

%

-5.0

%

-3.0

%

-1.0

%

1.0%

3.0%

5.0%

7.0%

Ja

n-0

8Ju

l-0

8Ja

n-0

9Ju

l-0

9Ja

n-1

0Ju

l-1

0Ja

n-1

1Ju

l-1

1Ja

n-1

2Ju

l-1

2Ja

n-1

3Ju

l-1

3Ja

n-1

4Ju

l-1

4Ja

n-1

5

Growth Rate of 12 Month Moving Total

To

tal M

ain

e T

axab

le S

ale

s

Gro

wth

Rate

of

12 M

on

th M

ovin

g T

ota

l Jan

uary

2008 t

o D

ate

F-24

Page 61: General Fund Revenue - Maine

Mai

ne

Rev

enu

e Se

rvic

es

Off

ice

of

Tax

Po

licy

5/1

/20

15

$1

,32

0,0

00

$1

,37

0,0

00

$1

,42

0,0

00

$1

,47

0,0

00

$1

,52

0,0

00

$1

,57

0,0

00

$1

,62

0,0

00 Ja

n-0

8Ju

l-0

8Ja

n-0

9Ju

l-0

9Ja

n-1

0Ju

l-1

0Ja

n-1

1Ju

l-1

1Ja

n-1

2Ju

l-1

2Ja

n-1

3Ju

l-1

3Ja

n-1

4Ju

l-1

4Ja

n-1

5

Thousands of Dollars

To

tal M

ain

e T

axab

le S

ale

s 1

2 M

on

th M

ovin

g A

vera

ge

Jan

uary

2008 t

o D

ate

F-25

Page 62: General Fund Revenue - Maine

Mai

ne

Rev

enu

e Se

rvic

es

Off

ice

of

Tax

Po

licy

4/2

8/2

01

5

00.0

2

0.0

4

0.0

6

0.0

8

0.1

0.1

2

0.1

4

0.1

6

0.1

8

0

200

000

00

0

400

000

00

0

600

000

00

0

800

000

00

0

1E

+09

1.2

E+

09

1.4

E+

09

Growth Rate

Dollars

Sale

s &

Serv

ice

Pro

vid

er

Tax

Rev

en

ue

F

Y'1

5 A

ctu

al,

Bu

dg

et

& F

Y'1

4 A

ctu

al

YT

D F

Y'1

5 A

ctu

al

YT

D F

Y'1

5 B

ud

ge

tY

TD

FY

'14 A

ctu

al

Gro

wth

Rate

F-26

Page 63: General Fund Revenue - Maine

Main

e R

even

ue S

erv

ices

Sale

s &

Use T

ax a

nd

Gen

era

l F

un

d S

erv

ice P

rovid

er

Tax R

even

ue

Mo

nth

FY

'15 A

ctu

al

FY

'15 B

ud

get

FY

'14 A

ctu

al

FY

'13 A

ctu

al

FY

'15 A

ctu

al

FY

'15 B

ud

get

FY

'15 A

ctu

al

FY

'14 A

ctu

al

vs. B

ud

get

vs. F

Y'1

4 A

ctu

al

vs. F

Y'1

4 A

ctu

al

vs. F

Y'1

3 A

ctu

al

Ju

l$117,9

73,3

23

$117,2

66,4

65

$102,1

52,1

84

$98,7

86,7

59

0.6

%14.8

%15.5

%3.4

%

Au

g$7,5

55,9

12

$7,3

46,8

39

$6,0

55,1

98

($494,5

60)

2.8

%21.3

%24.8

%-1

324.4

%

Sep

$126,8

26,8

59

$126,5

61,3

72

$109,9

63,3

07

$103,0

87,5

15

0.2

%15.1

%15.3

%6.7

%

Oct

$115,0

68,4

18

$115,7

15,5

55

$103,6

63,0

30

$95,6

51,9

59

-0.6

%11.6

%11.0

%8.4

%

No

v$100,6

37,0

00

$100,7

36,6

69

$93,8

83,4

79

$82,4

19,6

24

-0.1

%7.3

%7.2

%13.9

%

Dec

$90,4

25,7

46

$90,6

45,5

04

$87,2

09,5

75

$78,2

00,6

14

-0.2

%3.9

%3.7

%11.5

%

Jan

$117,5

22,8

44

$115,9

25,6

82

$109,8

01,4

89

$98,4

19,2

67

1.4

%5.6

%7.0

%11.6

%

Feb

$75,9

98,7

92

$79,1

10,8

74

$75,2

58,6

35

$67,6

67,5

11

-3.9

%5.1

%1.0

%11.2

%

Mar

$77,6

66,4

45

$80,6

24,5

93

$76,7

13,1

30

$65,7

55,4

03

-3.7

%5.1

%1.2

%16.7

%

Ap

r$0

$91,9

74,5

47

$87,6

28,0

05

$77,8

60,4

81

5.0

%12.5

%

May

$0

$91,2

96,8

36

$86,9

74,5

55

$79,0

06,1

47

5.0

%10.1

%

Ju

n$0

$227,1

03,3

58

$217,0

29,0

37

$190,5

26,7

95

4.6

%13.9

%

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

=

To

tal

$829,6

75,3

39

$1,2

44,3

08,2

94

$1,1

56,3

31,6

24

$1,0

36,8

87,5

15

-33.3

%7.6

%-2

8.2

%11.5

%

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

=

YT

D M

ar

$829,6

75,3

39

$833,9

33,5

53

$764,7

00,0

27

$689,4

94,0

92

-0.5

%9.1

%8.5

%10.9

%

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

=

Mai

ne

Re

ven

ue

Serv

ices

Off

ice

of

Tax

Po

licy.

4/2

8/20

15

F-27

Page 64: General Fund Revenue - Maine

Mai

ne

Rev

enu

e Se

rvic

es

Off

ice

of

Tax

Po

licy

4/2

8/2

01

5

00.0

2

0.0

4

0.0

6

0.0

8

0.1

0.1

2

0.1

4

0.1

6

0.1

8

0

200

000

00

0

400

000

00

0

600

000

00

0

800

000

00

0

1E

+09

1.2

E+

09

Growth Rate

Dollars

Sale

s T

ax

Ca

sh

Rec

eip

ts

Yea

r-to

-Date

FY

'15

& F

Y'1

4

FY

'15

FY

'14

Gro

wth

Rate

F-28

Page 65: General Fund Revenue - Maine

Main

e R

even

ue S

erv

ices

Sale

s T

ax C

ash

Receip

ts

FY

'15

FY

'14

YT

D F

Y'1

5Y

TD

FY

'14

Gro

wth

Rate

YT

D G

row

th R

ate

Ju

l$110,5

83,1

77

$95,6

96,9

02

$110,5

83,1

77

$95,6

96,9

02

15.6

%15.6

%

Au

g$114,8

78,2

54

$101,1

85,3

02

$225,4

61,4

31

$196,8

82,2

04

13.5

%14.5

%

Sep

$120,4

56,0

56

$104,2

23,9

45

$345,9

17,4

87

$301,1

06,1

49

15.6

%14.9

%

Oct

$109,3

37,7

32

$96,9

20,4

14

$455,2

55,2

19

$398,0

26,5

63

12.8

%14.4

%

No

v$95,3

35,0

80

$88,6

96,3

40

$550,5

90,2

99

$486,7

22,9

03

7.5

%13.1

%

Dec

$84,5

77,6

91

$81,7

52,6

77

$635,1

67,9

90

$568,4

75,5

80

3.5

%11.7

%

Jan

$107,8

70,6

29

$99,9

87,3

77

$743,0

38,6

19

$668,4

62,9

57

7.9

%11.2

%

Feb

$70,5

98,4

74

$69,6

96,7

56

$813,6

37,0

93

$738,1

59,7

13

1.3

%10.2

%

Mar

$72,1

30,6

35

$70,8

99,7

71

$885,7

67,7

28

$809,0

59,4

84

1.7

%9.5

%

Ap

r$0

$81,1

70,8

28

$885,7

67,7

28

$890,2

30,3

12

May

$0

$80,7

11,9

55

$885,7

67,7

28

$970,9

42,2

67

Ju

n$0

$93,8

68,0

84

$885,7

67,7

28

$1,0

64,8

10,3

51

Mai

ne

Re

ven

ue

Serv

ices

Off

ice

of

Tax

Po

licy.

4/2

8/20

15

F-29

Page 66: General Fund Revenue - Maine

Individual Income Tax

F-30

Page 67: General Fund Revenue - Maine

Mai

ne

Rev

enu

e Se

rvic

es

Off

ice

of

Tax

Po

licy

4/2

8/2

01

5

00.0

2

0.0

4

0.0

6

0.0

8

0.1

0.1

2

0.1

4

0.1

6

0

200

000

00

0

400

000

00

0

600

000

00

0

800

000

00

0

1E

+09

1.2

E+

09

1.4

E+

09

1.6

E+

09

Growth Rate

Dollars

YT

D I

nd

ivid

ual

Inco

me T

ax

Rev

en

ue

F

Y'1

5 A

ctu

al, B

ud

get

& F

Y'1

4 A

ctu

al

FY

'15 A

ctu

al

FY

'15 B

ud

ge

tF

Y'1

4 A

ctu

al

Gro

wth

Ra

te

F-31

Page 68: General Fund Revenue - Maine

Ma

ine

Re

ve

nu

e S

erv

ice

s

Ind

ivid

ua

l In

co

me

Ta

x R

eve

nu

e

FY

'15

Ac

tua

lF

Y'1

5 B

ud

ge

tF

Y'1

4 A

ctu

al

FY

'13

Ac

tua

lF

Y'1

5 A

ctu

al

FY

'15

Bu

dg

et

FY

'15

Ac

tua

lF

Y'1

4 A

ctu

al

vs

. B

ud

ge

tvs

. F

Y'1

4 A

ctu

al

vs

. F

Y'1

4 A

ctu

al

vs

. F

Y'1

3 A

ctu

al

Ju

l$

10

3,7

39

,31

2$

10

3,7

39

,31

3$

90

,73

5,0

95

$9

5,8

44

,04

10

.0%

14

.3%

14

.3%

-5.3

%

Au

g$

51

,87

4,9

02

$5

1,8

74

,90

2$

62

,91

6,9

69

$7

7,3

46

,96

00

.0%

-17

.6%

-17

.6%

-18

.7%

Se

p$

15

1,2

06

,59

7$

15

1,2

06

,59

7$

15

2,0

20

,20

6$

13

8,6

87

,99

60

.0%

-0.5

%-0

.5%

9.6

%

Oc

t$

12

0,2

68

,60

3$

12

0,4

01

,93

6$

11

0,8

81

,17

0$

11

7,4

71

,51

7-0

.1%

8.6

%8

.5%

-5.6

%

No

v$

11

6,1

00

,50

2$

11

6,2

33

,83

5$

11

2,4

69

,89

3$

12

1,2

83

,23

2-0

.1%

3.3

%3

.2%

-7.3

%

De

c$

14

5,2

67

,02

9$

13

2,0

73

,31

7$

13

3,1

56

,69

7$

13

3,5

62

,44

81

0.0

%-0

.8%

9.1

%-0

.3%

Ja

n$

17

2,7

43

,47

1$

17

8,8

33

,33

3$

16

5,8

91

,14

4$

19

0,2

19

,57

2-3

.4%

7.8

%4

.1%

-12

.8%

Fe

b$

58

,27

6,3

35

$6

,33

3,3

33

$1

2,0

04

,10

2$

26

,32

6,0

59

82

0.2

%-4

7.2

%3

85

.5%

-54

.4%

Ma

r$

45

,88

3,3

73

$6

0,9

33

,33

4$

57

,32

2,8

77

$6

1,0

89

,04

9-2

4.7

%6

.3%

-20

.0%

-6.2

%

Ap

r$

0$

22

3,7

44

,93

3$

22

4,5

48

,46

7$

26

9,3

66

,54

8-1

00

.0%

-0.4

%-1

00

.0%

-16

.6%

Ma

y$

0$

11

3,6

97

,03

3$

10

2,7

75

,29

9$

11

6,3

00

,12

6-1

00

.0%

10

.6%

-10

0.0

%-1

1.6

%

Ju

n$

0$

18

9,8

33

,33

4$

18

1,3

95

,78

4$

17

4,3

65

,20

8-1

00

.0%

4.7

%-1

00

.0%

4.0

%

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

=

To

tal

$9

65

,36

0,1

24

$1

,44

8,9

05

,20

0$

1,4

06

,11

7,7

03

$1

,52

1,8

62

,75

6-3

3.4

%3

.0%

-31

.3%

-7.6

%

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

=

YT

D M

ar

$9

65

,36

0,1

24

$9

21

,62

9,9

00

$8

97

,39

8,1

53

$9

61

,83

0,8

74

4.7

%2

.7%

7.6

%-6

.7%

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

==

=

Mai

ne

Re

ven

ue

Serv

ices

Off

ice

of

Tax

Po

licy.

4/2

8/20

15

F-32

Page 69: General Fund Revenue - Maine

Mai

ne

Rev

enu

e Se

rvic

es

Off

ice

of

Tax

Po

licy

4/2

8/2

01

5

-0.0

5

-0.0

3

-0.0

1

0.0

1

0.0

3

0.0

5

0.0

7

0.0

9

0.1

1

0.1

3

0.1

5

0

200

000

00

0

400

000

00

0

600

000

00

0

800

000

00

0

1E

+09

1.2

E+

09

1.4

E+

09

Growth Rate

Dollars

10

40

Wit

hh

old

ing

Y

ea

r-to

-Date

FY

'15 &

FY

'14

FY

'15

FY

'14

Gro

wth

Ra

te

F-33

Page 70: General Fund Revenue - Maine

Mai

ne

Rev

enu

e Se

rvic

es

Off

ice

of

Tax

Po

licy

4/2

8/2

01

5

1E

+09

1.0

5E

+0

9

1.1

E+

09

1.1

5E

+0

9

1.2

E+

09

1.2

5E

+0

9

1.3

E+

09

Jul-07

Nov-07

Mar-08

Jul-08

Nov-08

Mar-09

Jul-09

Nov-09

Mar-10

Jul-10

Nov-10

Mar-11

Jul-11

Nov-11

Mar-12

Jul-12

Nov-12

Mar-13

Jul-13

Nov-13

Mar-14

Jul-14

Nov-14

Mar-15

Wit

hh

old

ing

Ta

x R

ev

en

ue

12

Mo

nth

Mo

vin

g T

ota

l

F-34

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ne

Rev

enu

e Se

rvic

es

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ice

of

Tax

Po

licy

4/2

8/2

01

5

-0.3

5

-0.3

-0.2

5

-0.2

-0.1

5

-0.1

-0.0

5

00.0

5

0.1

0

500

000

00

100

000

00

0

150

000

00

0

200

000

00

0

250

000

00

0

Growth Rate

Dollars

10

40

Esti

ma

ted

Paym

en

ts

Yea

r-to

-Date

FY

'15 &

FY

'14

FY

'15

FY

'14

Gro

wth

Ra

te

F-35

Page 72: General Fund Revenue - Maine

Mai

ne

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enu

e Se

rvic

es

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ice

of

Tax

Po

licy

4/2

8/2

01

5

-0.2

4

-0.1

9

-0.1

4

-0.0

9

-0.0

4

0.0

1

0.0

6

0.1

1

0.1

6

0

500

000

00

100

000

00

0

150

000

00

0

200

000

00

0

250

000

00

0

300

000

00

0

Growth Rate

Dollars

10

40

Fin

al P

ay

men

ts

Yea

r-to

-Date

FY

'15 &

FY

'14

FY

'15

FY

'14

Gro

wth

Ra

te

F-36

Page 73: General Fund Revenue - Maine

Ma

ine

Re

ve

nu

e S

erv

ice

s

Ind

ivid

ua

l In

co

me

Ta

x W

ith

ho

ldin

g, E

sti

ma

ted

Pa

ym

en

ts a

nd

Fin

al P

aym

en

ts

10

40

Wit

hh

old

ing

10

40

Es

tim

ate

d P

aym

en

ts1

04

0 F

ina

l P

aym

en

ts

FY

'15

FY

'14

Gro

wth

Rate

FY

'15

FY

'14

Gro

wth

Rate

FY

'15

FY

'14

Gro

wth

Rate

Ju

l$105,6

66,9

76

$93,9

27,9

99

12.5

%$3,8

62,8

23

$4,0

36,6

74

-4.3

%$5,8

38,9

43

$6,6

65,5

07

-12.4

%

Au

g$104,8

16,9

39

$112,4

40,1

74

-6.8

%$4,5

04,6

54

$4,7

35,0

26

-4.9

%$6,1

64,5

24

$5,9

26,7

43

4.0

%

Sep

$92,2

03,3

67

$89,1

60,6

26

3.4

%$51,2

60,8

20

$56,9

34,0

60

-10.0

%$7,5

17,5

75

$6,0

50,5

76

24.2

%

Oct

$108,8

77,3

84

$103,0

25,7

61

5.7

%$5,7

07,5

10

$7,9

80,8

55

-28.5

%$14,8

12,1

54

$14,6

75,9

53

0.9

%

No

v$100,0

46,5

96

$111,8

68,4

46

-10.6

%$3,0

70,3

21

$3,4

85,3

94

-11.9

%$5,6

13,6

93

$4,7

70,9

44

17.7

%

Dec

$116,0

33,8

36

$96,9

90,8

49

19.6

%$33,0

31,2

74

$24,0

42,4

83

37.4

%$6,3

33,6

72

$5,1

23,8

50

23.6

%

Jan

$123,0

78,4

41

$121,5

42,4

06

1.3

%$58,8

99,3

17

$50,8

43,8

58

15.8

%$5,7

21,6

51

$5,3

90,0

60

6.2

%

Feb

$109,5

64,0

22

$102,6

75,6

26

6.7

%$1,9

66,5

60

$1,7

36,7

07

13.2

%$7,8

64,9

29

$7,6

59,1

17

2.7

%

Mar

$100,5

14,8

72

$97,1

56,8

05

3.5

%$3,5

27,3

81

$2,9

11,9

94

21.1

%$23,9

83,4

22

$18,8

17,0

39

27.5

%

Ap

r$0

$95,0

80,9

58

$0

$33,5

34,8

87

$0

$147,8

65,2

96

May

$0

$112,1

86,6

71

$0

$3,2

75,8

79

$0

$8,8

27,5

09

Ju

n$0

$88,0

51,4

89

$0

$43,6

38,9

16

$0

$7,0

67,6

03

Ye

ar-

To

-Da

te 10

40

Wit

hh

old

ing

10

40

Es

tim

ate

d P

aym

en

ts1

04

0 F

ina

l P

aym

en

ts

FY

'15

FY

'14

Gro

wth

Rate

FY

'15

FY

'14

Gro

wth

Rate

FY

'15

FY

'14

Gro

wth

Rate

Ju

l$105,6

66,9

76

$93,9

27,9

99

12.5

%$3,8

62,8

23

$4,0

36,6

74

-4.3

%$5,8

38,9

43

$6,6

65,5

07

-12.4

%

Au

g$210,4

83,9

15

$206,3

68,1

73

2.0

%$8,3

67,4

77

$8,7

71,7

00

-4.6

%$12,0

03,4

67

$12,5

92,2

50

-4.7

%

Sep

$302,6

87,2

82

$295,5

28,7

99

2.4

%$59,6

28,2

97

$65,7

05,7

60

-9.2

%$19,5

21,0

42

$18,6

42,8

26

4.7

%

Oct

$411,5

64,6

66

$398,5

54,5

60

3.3

%$65,3

35,8

07

$73,6

86,6

15

-11.3

%$34,3

33,1

96

$33,3

18,7

79

3.0

%

No

v$511,6

11,2

62

$510,4

23,0

06

0.2

%$68,4

06,1

28

$77,1

72,0

09

-11.4

%$39,9

46,8

89

$38,0

89,7

23

4.9

%

Dec

$627,6

45,0

98

$607,4

13,8

55

3.3

%$101,4

37,4

02

$101,2

14,4

92

0.2

%$46,2

80,5

61

$43,2

13,5

73

7.1

%

Jan

$750,7

23,5

39

$728,9

56,2

61

3.0

%$160,3

36,7

19

$152,0

58,3

50

5.4

%$52,0

02,2

12

$48,6

03,6

33

7.0

%

Feb

$860,2

87,5

61

$831,6

31,8

87

3.4

%$162,3

03,2

79

$153,7

95,0

57

5.5

%$59,8

67,1

41

$56,2

62,7

50

6.4

%

Mar

$960,8

02,4

33

$928,7

88,6

92

3.4

%$165,8

30,6

60

$156,7

07,0

51

5.8

%$83,8

50,5

63

$75,0

79,7

89

11.7

%

Ap

r$960,8

02,4

33

$1,0

23,8

69,6

50

$165,8

30,6

60

$190,2

41,9

38

$83,8

50,5

63

$222,9

45,0

85

May

$960,8

02,4

33

$1,1

36,0

56,3

21

$165,8

30,6

60

$193,5

17,8

17

$83,8

50,5

63

$231,7

72,5

94

Ju

n$960,8

02,4

33

$1,2

24,1

07,8

10

$165,8

30,6

60

$237,1

56,7

33

$83,8

50,5

63

$238,8

40,1

97

Mai

ne

Rev

enu

e S

ervi

ces

Off

ice

of

Tax

Po

licy.

4/2

8/2

01

5

F-37

Page 74: General Fund Revenue - Maine

Mai

ne

Rev

enu

e Se

rvic

es

Off

ice

of

Tax

Po

licy

4/2

8/2

01

5

-0.4

-0.2

00.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

0

500

000

00

100

000

00

0

150

000

00

0

200

000

00

0

250

000

00

0

300

000

00

0

350

000

00

0

Growth Rate

Dollars

Ind

ivid

ua

l In

co

me T

ax R

efu

nd

s

Ye

ar-

to-D

ate

FY

'15 &

FY

'14

FY

'15

FY

'14

Gro

wth

Ra

te

F-38

Page 75: General Fund Revenue - Maine

Ma

ine

Re

ve

nu

e S

erv

ice

s

Ind

ivid

ua

l In

co

me

Ta

x R

efu

nd

s

Mo

nth

Ye

ar-

To

-Date

FY

'15

FY

'14

FY

'15

FY

'14

Gro

wth

Ra

te

Ju

l$

6,2

94

,51

3$

4,2

42

,56

6$

6,2

94

,51

3$

4,2

42

,56

64

8%

Au

g$

3,4

52

,81

5$

7,9

86

,80

3$

9,7

47

,32

8$

12

,22

9,3

69

-20

%

Se

p$

3,8

32

,99

0$

3,1

31

,39

8$

13

,58

0,3

18

$1

5,3

60

,76

7-1

2%

Oc

t$

9,9

29

,06

2$

15

,35

8,4

54

$2

3,5

09

,38

0$

30

,71

9,2

21

-23

%

No

v$

7,6

86

,43

3$

8,4

42

,66

6$

31

,19

5,8

13

$3

9,1

61

,88

7-2

0%

De

c$

1,0

48

,42

7$

1,0

74

,93

8$

32

,24

4,2

40

$4

0,2

36

,82

5-2

0%

Ja

n$

16

,93

5,4

19

$9

,44

2,9

64

$4

9,1

79

,65

9$

49

,67

9,7

89

-1%

Fe

b$

62

,89

7,7

76

$1

02

,39

2,8

34

$1

12

,07

7,4

35

$1

52

,07

2,6

23

-26

%

Ma

r$

84

,59

6,2

83

$6

4,0

38

,86

6$

19

6,6

73

,71

8$

21

6,1

11

,48

9-9

%

Ap

r$

0$

59

,03

7,3

91

$2

75

,14

8,8

80

Ma

y$

0$

22

,81

2,4

46

$2

97

,96

1,3

26

Ju

n$

0$

14

,17

0,5

65

$3

12

,13

1,8

91

Mai

ne

Rev

enu

e Se

rvic

es

Off

ice

of

Tax

Po

licy.

4/2

8/2

01

5

F-39

Page 76: General Fund Revenue - Maine

Tax

Year

Capital Gains

Realizations ($

Millions)

Capital Gains

Realizations

Annual % Change

Capital Gains

Tax Liability ($

Millions)

Capital Gains Tax

Liability Annual %

Change

Capital Gains %

of Resident Tax

Liability

Resident Income

Tax Liability

1995 $551.7 $38.3 6.2% $620.11996 $799.7 45.0% $57.3 49.6% 8.4% $682.21997 $1,218.7 52.4% $104.5 82.4% 13.6% $771.11998 $1,551.0 27.3% $120.0 14.8% 13.9% $861.41999 $1,867.2 20.4% $141.7 18.1% 15.5% $916.72000 $2,360.4 26.4% $179.6 26.7% 17.3% $1,038.82001 $1,079.3 -54.3% $74.1 -58.7% 7.6% $970.92002 $908.8 -15.8% $59.1 -20.3% 6.1% $971.72003 $1,069.4 17.7% $69.4 17.4% 6.8% $1,020.82004 $1,526.9 42.8% $104.9 51.2% 9.2% $1,146.02005 $1,960.3 28.4% $137.0 30.6% 11.3% $1,208.72006 $2,280.1 16.3% $162.5 18.6% 12.6% $1,289.12007 $2,470.4 8.3% $177.9 9.5% 13.0% $1,369.62008 $1,017.0 -58.8% $70.7 -60.3% 5.6% $1,269.12009 $615.7 -39.5% $45.6 -35.6% 3.8% $1,189.22010 $876.7 42.4% $58.6 28.6% 4.6% $1,266.72011 $840.4 -4.1% $55.4 -5.5% 4.3% $1,290.42012 $1,352.6 60.9% $96.5 74.4% 6.9% $1,399.42013* $1,298.8 -4.0% $88.1 -8.7% 6.9% $1,280.92014* $1,337.5 3.0% $91.3 3.6% 6.8% $1,333.22015* $1,402.3 4.8% $95.8 5.0% 6.9% $1,396.42016* $1,418.1 1.1% $97.3 1.6% 6.6% $1,472.62017* $1,458.3 2.8% $98.5 1.2% 6.4% $1,528.72018* $1,517.9 4.1% $102.3 3.9% 6.4% $1,590.12019* $1,574.1 3.7% $107.7 5.3% 6.6% $1,640.1* Represents Projections.

Maine Resident - Net Capital Gains

F-40

Page 77: General Fund Revenue - Maine

-60.

0%

-40.

0%

-20.

0%

0.0%

20.0

%

40.0

%

60.0

%

80.0

%

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

44.9

5%

52.3

9%

27.2

7%

20.3

9%

26.4

1%

-54.

27%

-15.

80%

17.6

7%

42.7

8%

28.3

8%

16.3

1%

8.35

%

-58.

83%

-39.

46%

42.3

8%

-4.1

4%

60.9

4% -4.0

% 3.

0%

4.8%

1.

1% 2.

8% 4.

1% 3.

7%

Tax Y

ear

Pe

rce

nta

ge C

han

ge

in

Ca

pit

al G

ain

s R

ea

liza

tio

ns b

y M

ain

e R

es

ide

nts

Act

ual

Apr

il 15

For

ecas

t

F-41

Page 78: General Fund Revenue - Maine

0.00

%

1.00

%

2.00

%

3.00

%

4.00

%

5.00

%

6.00

%

7.00

%

8.00

%

$0.0

$20.

0

$40.

0

$60.

0

$80.

0

$100

.0

$120

.0

$140

.0

$160

.0

$180

.0

$200

.0

Millions of Dollars

Tax Y

ear

Ta

xe

s f

rom

Net

Ca

pit

al G

ain

s a

nd

Net

Ca

pit

al

Ga

ins

as

Pe

rce

nt

of

Pe

rso

nal In

co

me

Cap

ital G

ains

Tax

Liab

ility

($ M

illio

ns)

Cap

ital G

ains

Rea

lizat

ions

(% o

fP

erso

nal I

ncom

e))

F-42

Page 79: General Fund Revenue - Maine

Corporate Income Tax

F-43

Page 80: General Fund Revenue - Maine

Mai

ne

Rev

enu

e Se

rvic

es

Off

ice

of

Tax

Po

licy

4/2

8/2

01

5

-0.2

-0.1

5

-0.1

-0.0

5

00.0

5

0.1

0.1

5

0.2

0.2

5

0.3

$0

$20

,00

0,0

00

$40

,00

0,0

00

$60

,00

0,0

00

$80

,00

0,0

00

$10

0,0

00,0

00

$12

0,0

00,0

00

$14

0,0

00,0

00

$16

0,0

00,0

00

$18

0,0

00,0

00

$20

0,0

00,0

00

Growth Rate

Dollars

YT

D C

orp

ora

te I

nco

me T

ax R

ev

en

ue

F

Y'1

5 A

ctu

al,

Bu

dg

et

& F

Y'1

4 A

ctu

al

FY

'15 A

ctu

al

FY

'15 B

ud

get

FY

'14 A

ctu

al

Gro

wth

Rate

F-44

Page 81: General Fund Revenue - Maine

Ma

ine

Re

ve

nu

e S

erv

ice

s

Co

rpo

rate

In

co

me

Ta

x R

eve

nu

e

FY

'15

Ac

tua

lF

Y'1

5 B

ud

ge

tF

Y'1

4 A

ctu

al

FY

'13

Ac

tua

lF

Y'1

5 A

ctu

al

FY

'15

Bu

dg

et

FY

'15

Ac

tua

lF

Y'1

4 A

ctu

al

vs

. B

ud

ge

tvs

. F

Y'1

4 A

ctu

al

vs

. F

Y'1

4 A

ctu

al

vs

. F

Y'1

3 A

ctu

al

Ju

l$

7,1

11

,38

0$

7,1

11

,38

0$

5,6

47

,57

7$

9,5

60

,55

40

.0%

25

.9%

25

.9%

-40

.9%

Au

g$

32

6,6

64

$3

26

,66

5$

92

7,7

12

($5

,18

3,9

38

)0

.0%

64

.8%

64

.8%

-11

7.9

%

Se

pt

$3

7,6

08

,54

9$

37

,60

8,5

49

$3

3,6

77

,38

4$

32

,66

6,7

91

0.0

%1

1.7

%1

1.7

%3

.1%

Oc

t$

5,3

95

,11

4$

5,3

95

,11

5$

4,4

69

,66

0$

4,1

76

,21

80

.0%

20

.7%

20

.7%

7.0

%

No

v($

57

3,4

89

)($

57

3,4

88

)$

3,2

20

,85

8($

3,1

93

,76

1)

0.0

%-1

17

.8%

-11

7.8

%-2

00

.8%

Dec

$2

7,9

17

,59

3$

31

,36

4,6

90

$3

0,9

96

,55

7$

32

,82

8,4

94

-11

.0%

1.2

%-9

.9%

-5.6

%

Ja

n$

2,3

39

,42

1$

6,5

00

,00

0$

5,6

61

,73

8$

5,5

30

,03

8-6

4.0

%1

4.8

%-5

8.7

%2

.4%

Fe

b($

2,9

07

,35

6)

$3

,75

0,0

00

$2

,76

3,4

28

$3

,91

2,3

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15

F-45

Page 82: General Fund Revenue - Maine

Mai

ne

Rev

enu

e Se

rvic

es

Off

ice

of

Tax

Po

licy

4/2

8/2

01

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wth

Rate

F-46

Page 83: General Fund Revenue - Maine

Mai

ne

Rev

enu

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Off

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of

Tax

Po

licy

4/2

8/2

01

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wth

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F-47

Page 84: General Fund Revenue - Maine

Ma

ine

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x P

olic

y. 4

/28

/20

15

F-48

Page 85: General Fund Revenue - Maine

Mai

ne

Rev

enu

e Se

rvic

es

Off

ice

of

Tax

Po

licy

4/2

8/2

01

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F-49

Page 86: General Fund Revenue - Maine

Ma

ine

Re

ve

nu

e S

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s

Co

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In

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5

F-50

Page 87: General Fund Revenue - Maine

Estate Tax

F-51

Page 88: General Fund Revenue - Maine

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

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F-52

Page 89: General Fund Revenue - Maine

APPENDIX G

Other Background Materials

Table of Contents

Hollywood Casino Bangor .............................................................................................. G-1

Oxford Casino ................................................................................................................. G-7

Milk Handling Fee and Transfers to Maine Milk Pool ................................................. G-11

Revenue Sharing Transfers ........................................................................................... G-15

FHM – Tobacco Settlement Payments Detail ............................................................... G-18

Medicaid/MaineCare Dedicated Revenue Detail .......................................................... G-20

Page 90: General Fund Revenue - Maine

Hollywood Casino Bangor

G-1

Page 91: General Fund Revenue - Maine

GE

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RA

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5,0

20

,05

3

Net

Slo

t M

ach

ine

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me

(=A

-B-C

)$

41

,58

2,1

00

$4

2,8

84

,08

6$

45

,31

3,4

54

$4

5,7

66

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8$

46

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4,2

54

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86

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7

Lic

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are

of

Net

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t M

ach

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me

61

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5,3

65

,08

1$

26

,15

9,2

93

$2

7,6

41

,20

7$

27

,91

7,6

19

$2

8,1

96

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5$

28

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63

Lic

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are

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Net

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an

gor

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3,9

79

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0$

24

,73

3,1

27

$2

6,1

35

,63

1$

26

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6,9

87

$2

6,6

60

,95

7$

26

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7,5

66

Net

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ble

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me

$7

,46

9,2

09

$8

,38

9,4

10

$8

,40

8,7

49

$8

,49

2,8

36

$8

,57

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65

$8

,66

3,5

42

Lic

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are

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ble

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$6

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$7

,04

7,1

04

$7

,06

3,3

49

$7

,13

3,9

83

$7

,20

5,3

22

$7

,27

7,3

76

Dis

trib

uti

on

of

Sta

te S

ha

re o

f N

et S

lot

Ma

chin

e In

com

e3

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%2

01

3-1

42

01

4-1

52

01

5-1

62

01

6-1

72

01

7-1

82

01

8-1

9

Gen

eral

Fu

nd

(oth

er)

3.0

%$

1,2

47

,46

2$

1,2

86

,52

3$

1,3

59

,40

4$

1,3

72

,99

8$

1,3

86

,72

8$

1,4

00

,59

5

Gen

eral

Fu

nd

(A

fter

48

mon

ths

- N

ovem

ber

20

09

)1

.0%

$4

15

,82

1$

42

8,8

41

$4

53

,13

5$

45

7,6

66

$4

62

,24

3$

46

6,8

65

Fu

nd

for

Hea

lth

y M

ain

e (F

HM

)1

0.0

%$

4,1

58

,20

8$

4,2

88

,40

9$

4,5

31

,34

5$

4,5

76

,65

9$

4,6

22

,42

5$

4,6

68

,65

0

FH

M o

ver

cap

s to

Gen

Fu

nd

($

4.5

M i

n F

Y1

1 a

nd

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12

, $

0 i

n F

Y1

3)

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$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

Un

iver

sity

of

Mai

ne

Sch

ola

rsh

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un

d (

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til

9/1

/13

)1

.92

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79

8,3

76

$8

23

,37

4$

87

0,0

18

$8

78

,71

8$

88

7,5

06

$8

96

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1

Mai

ne

Mar

itim

e A

cad

emy S

chola

rsh

ip P

rogra

m (

beg

inn

ing 9

/1/1

3)

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$3

3,2

66

$3

4,3

07

$3

6,2

51

$3

6,6

13

$3

6,9

79

$3

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nit

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Sch

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41

5,8

21

$4

28

,84

1$

45

3,1

35

$4

57

,66

6$

46

2,2

43

$4

66

,86

5

Res

iden

t M

un

icip

alit

ies

1.0

%$

41

5,8

21

$4

28

,84

1$

45

3,1

35

$4

57

,66

6$

46

2,2

43

$4

66

,86

5

Pu

rse

Su

pp

lem

ents

1

0.0

%$

4,1

58

,20

8$

4,2

88

,40

9$

4,5

31

,34

5$

4,5

76

,65

9$

4,6

22

,42

5$

4,6

68

,65

0

Sir

e S

takes

Fu

nd

3.0

%$

1,2

47

,46

2$

1,2

86

,52

3$

1,3

59

,40

4$

1,3

72

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8$

1,3

86

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8$

1,4

00

,59

5

Fu

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to E

nco

ura

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t C

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mer

cial

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cks

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63

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3$

1,7

15

,36

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1,8

12

,53

8$

1,8

30

,66

4$

1,8

48

,97

0$

1,8

67

,46

0

Fu

nd

to S

tab

iliz

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ff-T

rack

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tin

g (

48

mon

ths

- u

nti

l O

ct 2

00

9)

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%$

0$

0$

0$

0$

0$

0

Fu

nd

to S

tab

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e O

ff-T

rack

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tin

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afte

r 4

8 m

on

ths

- N

ov 2

00

9)

1.0

%$

41

5,8

21

$4

28

,84

1$

45

3,1

35

$4

57

,66

6$

46

2,2

43

$4

66

,86

5

Agri

cult

ura

l F

air

Su

pp

ort

Fu

nd

3.0

%$

1,2

47

,46

2$

1,2

86

,52

3$

1,3

59

,40

4$

1,3

72

,99

8$

1,3

86

,72

8$

1,4

00

,59

5

GF

Tra

nsf

er t

o G

amb

lin

g A

dd

icti

on

Pre

ven

tion

an

d T

reat

men

t F

un

d($

10

0,0

00

)($

10

0,0

00

)($

10

0,0

00

)($

10

0,0

00

)($

10

0,0

00

)($

10

0,0

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)

Gam

bli

ng A

dd

icti

on

Pre

ven

tion

an

d T

reat

men

t F

un

d$

10

0,0

00

$1

00

,00

0$

10

0,0

00

$1

00

,00

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10

0,0

00

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00

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0

Dis

trib

uti

on

of

Sta

te S

ha

re o

f N

et T

ab

le G

am

e In

com

e1

6.0

%2

01

3-1

42

01

4-1

52

01

5-1

62

01

6-1

72

01

7-1

82

01

8-1

9

Gen

eral

Fu

nd

9.0

%$

67

2,2

29

$7

55

,04

7$

75

6,7

87

$7

64

,35

5$

77

1,9

99

$7

79

,71

9

Gam

bli

ng C

on

trol

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.0%

$2

24

,07

6$

25

1,6

82

$2

52

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2$

25

4,7

85

$2

57

,33

3$

25

9,9

06

Mu

nic

ipal

ity

2.0

%$

14

9,3

84

$1

67

,78

8$

16

8,1

75

$1

69

,85

7$

17

1,5

55

$1

73

,27

1

Non

-pro

fits

Con

du

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ean

o a

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f C

han

ce2

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$1

49

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4$

16

7,7

88

$1

68

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5$

16

9,8

57

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71

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5$

17

3,2

71

Det

ail

of

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enu

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Pa

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1 o

f 5

G-2

Page 92: General Fund Revenue - Maine

Rev

enu

e S

um

mary

2

01

3-1

42

01

4-1

52

01

5-1

62

01

6-1

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Gen

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4,5

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59

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0,9

85

$9

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RC

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8,7

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66

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62

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63

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40

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80

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33

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6

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fits

Con

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mes

of

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14

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84

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67

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69

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17

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73

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1

S

ub

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ial

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Ca

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July

31

$4

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38

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6,3

61

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2,9

36

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0$

43

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5,4

51

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3,7

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5$

44

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7,0

96

Au

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49

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48

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8,7

92

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3$

43

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8,0

75

$4

4,0

84

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6$

44

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5,4

01

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4,9

70

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5

Sep

tem

ber

30

$3

9,2

55

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6$

39

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9,9

49

$4

2,4

23

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7$

42

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8,0

35

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3,2

76

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5$

43

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9,2

80

Oct

ob

er3

1$

37

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2,8

64

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11

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9$

43

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3,0

47

$4

4,1

09

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8$

44

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0,8

75

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4,9

96

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4

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ber

30

$4

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11

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31

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8,4

76

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00

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7$

35

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3,4

72

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36

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07

Dec

emb

er3

1$

28

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1,0

99

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7,6

05

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33

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1,2

22

$3

3,9

77

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4$

34

,31

7,4

10

$3

4,6

60

,58

4

Jan

uar

y3

1$

38

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1,0

37

$2

9,2

26

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6$

36

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4,4

95

$3

7,1

62

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0$

37

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64

$3

7,9

09

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5

Feb

ruar

y2

8$

33

,99

3,4

27

$2

7,4

92

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0$

37

,52

3,5

88

$3

7,8

98

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4$

38

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7,8

12

$3

8,6

60

,59

0

Mar

ch3

1$

35

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3,4

94

$4

2,1

76

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5$

47

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2,0

39

$4

8,4

41

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48

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76

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30

$3

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09

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41

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0,9

99

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54

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9$

42

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1,9

53

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2,5

93

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3$

43

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9,6

10

May

31

$4

4,2

70

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8$

42

,99

5,1

99

$4

3,4

25

,15

1$

43

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9,4

02

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97

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6$

44

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0,9

76

Jun

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34

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6,6

46

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81

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38

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61

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40

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58

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8

Pla

yer

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er M

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73

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41

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6,1

28

$4

45

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90

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50

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8,7

93

July

$3

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84

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2$

34

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9,3

71

$3

8,5

13

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3$

38

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8,8

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87

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0,6

76

Au

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44

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2,4

62

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22

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39

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2,3

23

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9,5

43

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7$

39

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9,2

85

$4

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38

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8

Sep

tem

ber

$3

5,2

34

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7$

35

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8,9

03

$3

8,0

54

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Page 93: General Fund Revenue - Maine

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Page 94: General Fund Revenue - Maine

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Page 95: General Fund Revenue - Maine

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Page 96: General Fund Revenue - Maine

Oxford Casino

G-7

Page 97: General Fund Revenue - Maine

GE

NE

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Calc

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13

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Page 99: General Fund Revenue - Maine

Nu

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G-10

Page 100: General Fund Revenue - Maine

Milk Handling Fee and

Transfers to Maine Milk Pool

G-11

Page 101: General Fund Revenue - Maine

May 2015 Revenue Forecast - Milk CURRENT

HANDLING FEE INCOME

FY14 FY14 FY15 FY15

Month Basic Price Revenue Basic Price Revenue

June $22.18 $88,071 $26.11 $82,469

July $22.16 $103,316 $26.27 $99,135

August $22.13 $97,046 $27.12 $93,542

Sept. $22.40 $86,028 $26.68 $84,018

Oct. $22.45 $96,381 $27.44 $93,894

Nov. $23.45 $90,460 $27.31 $84,586

Dec. $23.62 $91,134 $25.78 $98,358

Jan. $24.73 $97,274 $21.83 $86,006

Feb. $25.27 $83,946 $19.49 $318,011

March $26.89 $89,729 $18.81 $460,820

April $26.90 $91,319 $18.75 $460,820

May $27.71 $85,707 $18.63 $460,820

$1,100,410 $2,422,480

$3,522,890

TIER PROGRAM PAYMENTS

Federal Federal Average Average Total Support

Blend/CWT MILC/CWT Premium Support/CWT Pounds Payment

FY14 Jun-13 $20.20 $0.24 $0.56 $0.01 51,910,695 $3,257

Jul-13 $20.18 $0.06 $0.62 $0.03 51,090,292 $16,340

Aug-13 $20.28 $0.00 $0.62 $0.04 51,330,054 $19,457

Sep-13 $20.58 $0.00 $0.59 $0.03 48,252,441 $15,294

Oct-13 $20.88 $0.00 $0.61 $0.01 49,201,561 $3,659

Nov-13 $21.48 $0.00 $0.65 $0.00 48,289,429 $0

Dec-13 $21.93 $0.00 $0.60 $0.00 51,576,971 $0

Jan-14 $22.93 $0.00 $0.57 $0.00 51,473,452 $0

Feb-14 $24.42 $0.00 $0.58 $0.00 46,935,723 $0

Mar-14 $24.97 $0.00 $0.57 $0.00 52,051,351 $0

Apr-14 $25.46 $0.00 $0.53 $0.00 51,464,482 $0

May-14 $25.24 $0.00 $0.53 $0.00 53,921,259 $0

FY14 Exp $58,007

Federal Federal Average Average Total Support

Blend/CWT MILC/CWT Premium Support/CWT Pounds Payment

FY15 Jun-14 $24.38 $0.00 $0.49 $0.00 50,695,219 $0

Jul-14 $24.75 $0.00 $0.53 $0.00 51,584,871 $0

Aug-14 $25.41 $0.00 $0.54 $0.00 52,026,013 $0

Sep-14 $26.16 $0.00 $0.55 $0.00 49,291,717 $0

Oct-14 $24.89 $0.00 $0.54 $0.00 49,807,433 $0

Nov-14 $22.26 $0.00 $0.55 $0.00 47,298,144 $0

Dec-14 $21.16 $0.00 $0.57 $0.00 49,852,217 $0

Jan-15 $17.57 $0.00 $0.54 $1.38 49,909,926 $688,880

Feb-15 $16.66 $0.00 $0.54 $1.89 44,388,389 $837,419

Mar-15 $16.56 $0.00 $0.54 $2.18 50,084,062 $1,089,797

Apr-15 $16.53 $0.00 $0.54 $2.17 49,444,407 $1,073,775

May-15 $16.43 $0.00 $0.54 $2.24 51,770,355 $1,160,624

FY15 Exp $4,850,495

.5% of net slot income from Oxford Casino $297,835

Net GF Exp $4,552,660

Total for FY14 & 15 $4,610,667

1G-12

Page 102: General Fund Revenue - Maine

HANDLING FEE INCOME

FY16 FY16 FY17 FY17

Month Basic Price Revenue Basic Price Revenue

June $18.24 $552,984 $20.50 $184,328

July $18.55 $368,656 $20.50 $184,328

August $19.21 $368,656 $20.50 $184,328

Sept. $19.85 $276,492 $20.50 $184,328

Oct. $20.32 $184,328 $20.50 $184,328

Nov. $20.59 $184,328 $20.50 $184,328

Dec. $20.68 $184,328 $20.50 $184,328

Jan. $20.50 $184,328 $20.50 $184,328

Feb. $20.50 $184,328 $20.50 $184,328

March $20.50 $184,328 $20.50 $184,328

April $20.50 $184,328 $20.50 $184,328

May $20.50 $184,328 $20.50 $184,328

$3,041,412 $2,211,936

$5,253,348

TIER PROGRAM PAYMENTS

Federal Federal Average Average Total Support

Blend/CWT MILC/CWT Premium Support/CWT Pounds Payment

FY16 Jun-15 $16.49 $0.00 $0.54 $4.48 50,695,219 $2,269,230

Jul-15 $17.06 $0.00 $0.54 $3.05 51,584,871 $1,571,242

Aug-15 $17.72 $0.00 $0.54 $2.25 52,026,013 $1,170,222

Sep-15 $18.27 $0.00 $0.54 $1.51 49,291,717 $745,916

Oct-15 $18.57 $0.00 $0.54 $1.11 49,807,433 $555,322

Nov-15 $18.73 $0.00 $0.54 $0.86 47,298,144 $406,697

Dec-15 $18.70 $0.00 $0.54 $0.81 49,852,217 $403,885

Jan-16 $18.70 $0.00 $0.54 $0.77 49,909,926 $386,183

Feb-16 $18.70 $0.00 $0.54 $0.72 44,938,481 $324,158

Mar-16 $18.70 $0.00 $0.54 $0.73 50,084,062 $364,598

Apr-16 $18.70 $0.00 $0.54 $0.71 49,444,407 $350,349

May-16 $18.70 $0.00 $0.54 $0.69 51,770,355 $357,258

FY16 Exp $8,905,062

.5% of net slot income from Oxford Casino $296,234

Net GF Exp $8,608,828

Federal Federal Average Average Total Support

Blend/CWT MILC/CWT Premium Support/CWT Pounds Payment

FY17 Jun-16 $18.70 $0.00 $0.54 $1.73 50,695,219 $875,111

Jul-16 $18.70 $0.00 $0.54 $1.49 51,584,871 $769,866

Aug-16 $18.70 $0.00 $0.54 $1.33 52,026,013 $692,968

Sep-16 $18.70 $0.00 $0.54 $1.18 49,291,717 $581,288

Oct-16 $18.70 $0.00 $0.54 $1.03 49,807,433 $511,883

Nov-16 $18.70 $0.00 $0.54 $0.88 47,298,144 $414,867

Dec-16 $18.70 $0.00 $0.54 $0.81 49,852,217 $403,885

Jan-17 $18.70 $0.00 $0.54 $0.77 49,909,926 $386,183

Feb-17 $18.70 $0.00 $0.54 $0.72 44,938,481 $324,158

Mar-17 $18.70 $0.00 $0.54 $0.73 50,084,062 $364,598

Apr-17 $18.70 $0.00 $0.54 $0.71 49,444,407 $350,349

May-17 $18.70 $0.00 $0.54 $0.69 51,770,355 $357,258

FY17 Exp $6,032,415

.5% of net slot income from Oxford Casino $299,196

Net GF Exp $5,733,219

Total for FY16 & 17 $14,342,047

2G-13

Page 103: General Fund Revenue - Maine

HANDLING FEE INCOME

FY18 FY18 FY19 FY19

Month Basic Price Revenue Basic Price Revenue

June $20.50 $184,328 $20.50 $184,328

July $20.50 $184,328 $20.50 $184,328

August $20.50 $184,328 $20.50 $184,328

Sept. $20.50 $184,328 $20.50 $184,328

Oct. $20.50 $184,328 $20.50 $184,328

Nov. $20.50 $184,328 $20.50 $184,328

Dec. $20.50 $184,328 $20.50 $184,328

Jan. $20.50 $184,328 $20.50 $184,328

Feb. $20.50 $184,328 $20.50 $184,328

March $20.50 $184,328 $20.50 $184,328

April $20.50 $184,328 $20.50 $184,328

May $20.50 $184,328 $20.50 $184,328

$2,211,936 $2,211,936

$4,423,872

TIER PROGRAM PAYMENTS

Federal Federal Average Average Total Support

Blend/CWT MILC/CWT Premium Support/CWT Pounds Payment

FY18 Jun-17 $18.75 $0.00 $0.54 $1.68 50,695,219 $849,764

Jul-17 $18.75 $0.00 $0.54 $1.45 51,584,871 $745,833

Aug-17 $18.75 $0.00 $0.54 $1.29 52,026,013 $669,749

Sep-17 $18.75 $0.00 $0.54 $1.14 49,291,717 $562,145

Oct-17 $18.75 $0.00 $0.54 $0.99 49,807,433 $495,176

Nov-17 $18.75 $0.00 $0.54 $0.85 47,298,144 $401,250

Dec-17 $18.75 $0.00 $0.54 $0.78 49,852,217 $390,430

Jan-18 $18.75 $0.00 $0.54 $0.75 49,724,938 $373,110

Feb-18 $18.75 $0.00 $0.54 $0.73 44,938,481 $329,981

Mar-18 $18.75 $0.00 $0.54 $0.70 50,084,062 $352,070

Apr-18 $18.75 $0.00 $0.54 $0.68 49,444,407 $338,199

May-18 $18.75 $0.00 $0.54 $0.67 51,770,355 $344,735

FY18 Exp $5,852,442

.5% of net slot income from Oxford Casino $302,188

Net GF Exp $5,550,254

Federal Federal Average Average Total Support

Blend/CWT MILC/CWT Premium Support/CWT Pounds Payment

FY19 Jun-18 $18.75 $0.00 $0.54 $1.68 50,695,219 $849,764

Jul-18 $18.75 $0.00 $0.54 $1.45 51,584,871 $745,833

Aug-18 $18.75 $0.00 $0.54 $1.29 52,026,013 $669,749

Sep-18 $18.75 $0.00 $0.54 $1.14 49,291,717 $562,145

Oct-18 $18.75 $0.00 $0.54 $0.99 49,807,433 $495,176

Nov-18 $18.75 $0.00 $0.54 $0.85 47,298,144 $401,250

Dec-18 $18.75 $0.00 $0.54 $0.78 49,852,217 $390,430

Jan-19 $18.75 $0.00 $0.54 $0.75 49,724,938 $373,110

Feb-19 $18.75 $0.00 $0.54 $0.73 44,938,481 $329,981

Mar-19 $18.75 $0.00 $0.54 $0.70 50,084,062 $352,070

Apr-19 $18.75 $0.00 $0.54 $0.68 49,444,407 $338,199

May-19 $18.75 $0.00 $0.54 $0.67 51,770,355 $344,735

FY19 Exp $5,852,442

.5% of net slot income from Oxford Casino $305,210

Net GF Exp $5,547,232

Total for FY18 & 19 $11,097,486

Prepared by Tim Drake, Maine Milk Commission, 04-01-15

NOTE: Basic Price is the Class I Price and is higher than the Uniform Federal Blend Price

Tier target prices: $21.00, $20.36, $18.01, $17.83

3G-14

Page 104: General Fund Revenue - Maine

Revenue Sharing Transfers

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Page 105: General Fund Revenue - Maine

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G-17

Page 107: General Fund Revenue - Maine

FHM - Tobacco Settlement Payments

Detail

G-18

Page 108: General Fund Revenue - Maine

Fund

for

a H

ealth

y M

aine

- T

obac

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11 A

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Rec

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FY12

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$40,

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G-19

Page 109: General Fund Revenue - Maine

Medicaid/MaineCare Dedicated Revenue

Detail

G-20

Page 110: General Fund Revenue - Maine

Sum

mar

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4 of

6

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Page 111: General Fund Revenue - Maine

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Rev

enue

For

ecas

ting

Com

mitt

ee -

May

201

5 D

etai

lM

aine

Car

e T

ax R

even

ue, P

age

5 of

6

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