"Beyond Physical Risk" – Looking through a socio-economic lens
GEM Booth, UR, London, Tuesday July 1, 2014
Amod Mani DixitAmod Mani DixitNepalNepal
www.nset.org.npwww.nset.org.np
National Society for Earthquake Technology-NepalNational Society for Earthquake Technology-Nepal
GEM & NSET collaboration for risk
assessment & management in Nepal
National Society for Earthquake Technology-NepalNational Society for Earthquake Technology-Nepal
Nepal sits astride a plate Nepal sits astride a plate boundary!boundary!
•NEPALNEPAL
•TIBETTIBET
•INDIAINDIA
National Society for Earthquake Technology-NepalNational Society for Earthquake Technology-Nepal
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Year
Pop
ulat
ion
Population Earthquakes with Intensity IX or greater
Earthquake Hazard and Risk of Earthquake Hazard and Risk of Kathmandu ValleyKathmandu Valley
Magnitude-Frequency Data (1911-1991)
41
17
10
2 125
8
40
81
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
5 to 6 6 to 7 7 to 7.5 7.5 to 8 >8
Magnitude, Richter
No
. of
Eve
nts
No. of Events
Approximate RecurrenceInterval, yr.
•In 2001•Population = 1.65 M
•Number of Household = 345 K
National Society for Earthquake Technology-NepalNational Society for Earthquake Technology-Nepal
DeathDeath >100,000>100,000Critical InjuriesCritical Injuries
>>100,000100,000Moderate InjuryModerate Injury > >
200,000200,000Buildings destroyed/collapsedBuildings destroyed/collapsed > > 6060%%Homeless populationHomeless population
1,500,0001,500,000Bridges impassableBridges impassable >50%>50%Road length damagedRoad length damaged >10%>10%Water supply pipes damagedWater supply pipes damaged >95%>95%Telephone Exchange BuildingsTelephone Exchange Buildings mostmostTelephone linesTelephone lines >60%>60%Electric substationsElectric substations mostmostElectric linesElectric lines 40%40%
Estimated Damage by a MMI IX ShakingEstimated Damage by a MMI IX Shaking
National Society for Earthquake Technology-NepalNational Society for Earthquake Technology-Nepal
Crazy Construction?Crazy Construction?
• > 50% of modern, engineered buildings in Kathmandu Valley do not fully comply with
NBC
• Problems not a slip or an error, but a serious lack in understanding of building behavior!
National Society for Earthquake Technology-NepalNational Society for Earthquake Technology-Nepal
• Hazard & Risk assessmentsHazard & Risk assessments
• School and Hospital programsSchool and Hospital programs
• AwarenessAwareness
• Several success casesSeveral success cases
Yet … …. ..Yet … …. ..
Efforts and results in ERREfforts and results in ERR
National Society for Earthquake Technology-NepalNational Society for Earthquake Technology-Nepal
• Do more, do fastDo more, do fast• Enhance efficiency .. .. .. Enhance efficiency .. .. ..
– Cost, time, standard, Cost, time, standard, • Scale up Scale up
– Save more people, more property at Save more people, more property at less cost per capitaless cost per capita
The Challenges are .. The Challenges are ..
National Society for Earthquake Technology-NepalNational Society for Earthquake Technology-Nepal
• Science, technology and Science, technology and innovativenessinnovativeness
• Networking and Synergy Networking and Synergy development; Opennessdevelopment; Openness
• Collaboration and partnershipCollaboration and partnership• Enhance efficiencyEnhance efficiency
National & South Asia NeedsNational & South Asia Needs
National Society for Earthquake Technology-NepalNational Society for Earthquake Technology-Nepal
• Proliferate the KnowledgeProliferate the Knowledge• Proliferate ERR ActionsProliferate ERR Actions• Proliferate networkingProliferate networking• Decentralize research Decentralize research • Training, piloting, adjusting, Training, piloting, adjusting,
updatingupdating• dissemination - Periodic meetings dissemination - Periodic meetings
Obvious Doable ActionsObvious Doable Actions
National Society for Earthquake Technology-NepalNational Society for Earthquake Technology-Nepal
• On GEM in Beijing 2008; Member of SB On GEM in Beijing 2008; Member of SB
(2009+) and GB (2013+) (2009+) and GB (2013+)
• GEMSAM, GEMTRAIN, GEM in other WS GEMSAM, GEMTRAIN, GEM in other WS
• Collaborative research in SEI tools testingCollaborative research in SEI tools testing
• NSET professionals' training in Pavia, NSET professionals' training in Pavia,
more lined up >>> Instructors of GEM more lined up >>> Instructors of GEM
toolstools
• NSET – a Comprehensive GEM Centre?NSET – a Comprehensive GEM Centre?
GEM & NSETGEM & NSET
National Society for Earthquake Technology-NepalNational Society for Earthquake Technology-Nepal
• Many initiatives ongoing, Many initiatives ongoing, investment increasing!investment increasing!
• Positive international and national Positive international and national environmentenvironment– HFA2, HFA2, – Mainstreaming effortsMainstreaming efforts
• Growing national and regional Growing national and regional knowledge - strengthknowledge - strength
Time for Action - NowTime for Action - Now
National Society for Earthquake Technology-NepalNational Society for Earthquake Technology-Nepal
Thank You!Thank You!
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