Download - Gaining traction Will consumers ride the electric vehicle ... · Gaining traction Will consumers ride the electric vehicle wave? 3 Figure 2. Typical daily driving distance of respondents

Gaining traction Will consumers ride the electric vehicle wave?

Comparison of results in China, United States, Europe, and Japan

April 2011

22

Potential first movers profile

Country EV perception Education EV knowledge Location Income Gender

China “Green and Clean”

86% BA or higher

63% very knowledgeable

Urban 36% > 400,000 RMB

48% male

U.S. “Green and Clean”

38% BA or higher


Urban/Suburban

57% < $50,000 60% male

Europe “Green and Clean”

46% BA or higher


Urban 42% < €20,000 57% male

Japan “Green and Clean”

54% BA or higher


Urban/Suburban

51% > 5.8M ¥ 54% male

Potential first movers of electric vehicles

The following analysis compares survey results in the following markets:China: 1163 participants from 22 major urban areas•United States: 1007 participants•Europe: 4760 participants across seven countries — Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Turkey, and the UK•Japan: 2075 participants•

Source: DTTL Global Manufacturing Industry group. Global electric vehicle survey. 2011.

Chinese “potential first movers” identify themselves as more highly educated and very knowledgeable of EVs

Common characteristics across all four regions:Consider themselves to be environmentally conscious, tech savvy, trendsetters, and politically active.•They viewed the EVs much higher in positive dimensions such as being cool, convenient, safe, stylish, and a good value. •This group sees themselves as trendsetters but are also sensitive to governmental incentives and gas mileage/cost to •charge considerations.

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%7%

46%

31%

52%43%

42%

53%

44%50%

12% 16%

4%

Not likely to consider

Might be willing to consider

Potential first movers

0%

Potential First Movers indicated they were very interested in purchasing an EV and likely to purchase or lease a new vehicle of some kind within the next 12 months

Figure 1. Consumer segmentation profiles for electric vehicles

Gaining traction Will consumers ride the electric vehicle wave? 3 Gaining traction Will consumers ride the electric vehicle wave? 3

Figure 2. Typical daily driving distance of respondents

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

160+16012080<40

Kilometers (per day)

China

% o

f peo

ple

(cum

ulat

ive)

% o

f peo

ple

(cum

ulat

ive)

% o

f peo

ple

(cum

ulat

ive)

% o

f peo

ple

(cum

ulat

ive)

45%

79%

93%98% 100%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

160+16012080< 40


Europe

56%

80%

91%

99% 100%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

160+16012080< 40


Japan

81%

94%98% 99% 100%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

200+2001007550< 25

Miles (per day)

United States

51%

77%

90%95%

99% 100%


Actual driving range is less than 80 kilometers a day for roughly 80% of individuals across the regions…

4

Figure 3. Respondents’ expectations for EV range before re-charging


Range (kilometers)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

64048032016080

A ev B

69%

31%% o

f peo

ple

(cum

ulat

ive)

% o

f peo

ple

(cum

ulat

ive)

% o

f peo

ple

(cum

ulat

ive)

% o

f peo

ple

(cum

ulat

ive)

China

Range (miles)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

>40030020010050

A ev B

63%

20%

United States

Range (kilometers)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

64048032016080

A ev B

74%

22%

Europe

Range (kilometers)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

> 64048032016080

A ev B

55%

16%

Japan

Typical driving distance (for ~80% of respondents)A

Consumer expectations on rangeB

Consumer range expectations are 2–3 times current market offerings

Gaining traction Will consumers ride the electric vehicle wave? 5

Figure 4. Charge time for EVs of 2 hours or less is expected by the majority of individuals

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

JapanEuropeU.S.China

12%

18%

25%

27%

18%

24%

19%

17%

18%

23%

26%

21%

20%

17%

16%

37%

27%

17%

13%

6%

Longest acceptable time to fully recharge EV battery

30 minutes

55%

1 hour

2 hours

4 hours

8 hours

60%67%

81%

% o

f peo

ple

(cum

ulat

ive)

Given the current recharge typically takes eight hours, charge time expectations may also be an issue.


6

Figure 5. Consumers have a low expectation for purchase price across the regions

Purchase price expectations represent a challenge for OEMs and government leaders

China (in RMB)

Expected purchase price of an EV after government incentives

United States (in $)

Europe (in €) Japan (in MM ¥)

3%

2%2% 1%

3%

5%

15%

25%

52%

9%

58%

15%

5%

37%

30%

41%

5%

14%31%

47%

< 130,000 RMB

130–200,000

200–270,000

270–340,000

340,000+

< $20,000

20–30,000

30–40,000

40–50,000

50,000+

< €15,000

15–23,000

23–30,000

30–35,000

35,000+

< 1.7 MM ¥

1.7–2.5

2.5–3.3

3.3–4.2

4.2+



Figure 6. Consumers have a low expectation for purchase price across the regions

China United States

Europe Japan

3%

2%2% 1%

2%

5%

15%

25%

52%

9%

58%

15%

5%

37%

30%

41%

5%

14%31%

47%

< $20,000

$20–30,000

$30–40,000

$40–50,000

$50,000+

< $20,000

$20–30,000

$30–40,000

$40–50,000

$50,000+

< $20,000

$20–30,000

$30–40,000

$40–50,000

$50,000+

< $20,000

$20–30,000

$30–40,000

$40–50,000

$50,000+

Expected purchase price of an EV after government incentives (in U.S. $*)

Source: DTTL Global Manufacturing Industry group. Global electric vehicle survey. 2011. *Conversion to U.S. Dollars is an approximation for categorization purposes.

8

Figure 7. Consumers are not willing to pay much, if any, of a price premium


China (in RMB) United States (in $)

Europe (in €) Japan (in MM ¥)

2% 4%

12%

12%

9%

19%

51%

4%6%

57%

15%

5%

4%7%

63%10%

9%

14%

6%

4%

10%

12%56%

13%

< 3,400 RMB

Same or less

6,700

13,500

20,000

27,000

< $500

Same or less

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000+

< 400 €

Same or less

800

1,500

2,300

3,000+

< 40,000 ¥

Same or less

80,000

170,000

250,000

330,000+

Acceptable price premium in local currency

Purchase price expectations represent a challenge for OEMs and government leaders


Figure 8. Consumers are not willing to pay much, if any, of a price premium

China United States

Europe Japan

2% 4%

12%

12%

9%

19%

51%

4%6%

57%

15%

5%

4%7%

63%10%

9%

14%

6%

4%

10%

12%56%

13%

< $500

Same or less

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000+

< $500

Same or less

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000+

< $500

Same or less

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000+

< $500

Same or less

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000+

Source: DTTL Global Manufacturing Industry group. Global electric vehicle survey. 2011. *Conversion to U.S. Dollars is an approximation for categorization purposes.

Acceptable price premium in US dollars*

10

Figure 9. The higher the price of fuel... the more interested consumers are in EVs

Question: At what price for a liter of gasoline or diesel would you be much more likely to consider buying or leasing an electric vehicle (EV)?


U.S. dollars per gallon

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

> 8.18.16.95.84.64.1

A

66%

China


0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

> 776543.5

A

78%

% o

f peo

ple

(cum

ulat

ive)

% o

f peo

ple

(cum

ulat

ive)

% o

f peo

ple

(cum

ulat

ive)

% o

f peo

ple

(cum

ulat

ive)

United States


0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

> 19.419.416.21410.89.7

A

77%

Europe


0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

> 13.113.111.39.57.46.5

A

66%

Japan

Fuel prices would have to rise ~36% from current price to reach inflection point

Fuel prices would have to rise ~68% from current levels to reach inflection point



Rising fuel prices would enhance the attractiveness of EV adoption


Liters per 100 kilometers

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

< 2.42.434.766.7

A

57%

82%

China

Mile per gallon

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

100+10075504035

A

68%

82%

% o

f peo

ple

(cum

ulat

ive)

% o

f peo

ple

(cum

ulat

ive)

% o

f peo

ple

(cum

ulat

ive)

% o

f peo

ple

(cum

ulat

ive)

United States

Liters per 100 kilometers

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

< 2.42.434.766.7

A

48%

73%

Europe

Kilometers per liter

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

> 434332211715

A

39%

71%

Japan

Figure 10. But... the better the fuel mileage of gasoline powered ICEs, the less interested consumers become in EVs

Question: If vehicles with gasoline or diesel engines of the size, performance, and other features you prefer were able to achieve the following, at what point would it make you much less likely to consider buying or leasing an EV?

ICE fuel efficiency advancements will also have a significant influence on EV adoption


12

Figure 11. But... the better the fuel mileage of gasoline powered ICEs, the less interested consumers become in EVs

Question: If vehicles with gasoline or diesel engines of the size, performance, and other features you prefer were able to achieve the following, at what point would it make you much less likely to consider buying or leasing an EV??


Miles per gallon

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

100+10075504035

A

57%

82%

China

Miles per gallon

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

100+10075504035

A

68%

82%

% o

f peo

ple

(cum

ulat

ive)

% o

f peo

ple

(cum

ulat

ive)

% o

f peo

ple

(cum

ulat

ive)

% o

f peo

ple

(cum

ulat

ive)

United States

Miles per gallon

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

100+10075504035

A

48%

73%

Europe

Miles per gallon

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

100+10075504035

A

39%

71%

Japan

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Global Electric Vehicle researchDTTL’s Global Manufacturing Industry group conducted a global survey to explore consumer adoption of electric vehicles (EVs). The online survey captures the views of more than 12,000 consumers across the Americas, Asia and Europe in 17 countries. To qualify for the survey, potential respondents had to be 18 years of age or older and to have a driver’s license. The survey asked respondents, among other things, how likely they would be to consider buying or leasing an electric vehicle when they buy or lease their next vehicle (assuming that electric vehicles were readily available) and how likely they were to actually buy or lease an electric vehicle. The research analyzed the characteristics and opinions of three groups based on their purchase interest: Potential first movers are consumers who are most likely to buy or lease an EV; Might be willing to consider are consumers who are interested, but less likely to consider an EV; and Not likely to consider consumer who would not be interested in buying or leasing an EV. The overall margin of error for the Chinese results is +/- 2.9%.

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