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Marco Forzati Acreo Swedish ICT, Stockholm
BROADBAND DEVELOPMENT IN THE EU
SOCIO-ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF FIBRE-BASED BROADBAND
EXAMPLES & CALCULATIONS FOR SWEDEN AND DENMARK
FTTH COSTS AND BENEFIT CALCULATION
Internet service revenue
Telephony service revenue
TV service revenue
Rol
l-out
cos
t
Telc
o re
turn
U
n-ca
ptur
ed
valu
es
Profit from copper
Virtual labour mobility
entrepreneurship
FTTH deployment
Very high access speed
Distance working
New ICT and traditional companies
increased use of ICT services
ICT competence
HR pool
Customers for new services
ICT Maturity: digital
natives
Direct economic activity
Higher employment
New & better services
True cloud computing
HD videoconf
Telepresence
Logistics, prod, management Ease to
do business
FTTH deployment
Higher employment
Our question: • What actually happened after fibre was deployed?
The tool: • Multivariable regression analysis of all of Sweden’s
290 municipalities
The data: • Fibre penetration in 2007 • Employment, tax rate, etc. 2007-2010
FTTH deployment
FTTH/FTTx penetration in 2007
Cha
nge
in e
mpl
oym
nent
200
7-20
10
(adj
uste
d) Higher
employment
10%
0.1%
600 M€
120 M€/year
New & better services
entrepreneurship
increased use of ICT services
Distance working
Very high access speed
FTTH deployment
True cloud computing
HD videoconf
Telepresence Ease to
do business
ICT competence
HR pool
Customers for new services
ICT Maturity: digital
natives
New ICT and traditional companies
Logistics, prod, management
E-health
E-government
Perceived quality of life
e-learning reduced forced migration
FTTH deployment
reduced forced migration
10%
0.25% ? €/year
600 M€
Cha
nge
in p
opul
atio
n 20
07-2
010
(adj
uste
d)
FTTH/FTTx penetration in 2007
FTTH deployment
Competition between SPs
lower prices
for services
Increased market value
new business model
possible
Functionally separated
open access
New infrastructure
Example: agreement tenant ass’n and housing companies • €5/month/apartment
Example: Price in most Swedish fibre networks: • Symmetrical 10 Mb/s: €15-25/month • Symmetrical 100 Mb/s: €20-35/month
Examples: Saving in data and telecom for: • City of Stockholm: 30% • Jönköping municipality: 15% • Stockholm region: 50% • Region Norrbotten: 50%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Lowest price
price
Lineær (price)
QUANTIFYING THE VALUES
A STUDY FOR STOCKHOLM
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
Investment [2012 MSEK]
TOTAL RETURN [2012 MSEK]
EXTRAPOLATION TO DENMARK
Dansk Energis studie, baserad på Acreos modell:
“Investeringer i fiberbredbånd vil give samfundsøkonomiske gevinster for over 16 mia. kr. i form af bl.a. arbejdspladser og øget konkurrenceevne, viser beregninger”
Børsen, 22 jan 2013
MARCO FORZATI [email protected]
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