Fifty Years of California Field Polls
Henry E. Brady and Iris Hui
Survey Research Center
University of California, Berkeley
The Field Poll and Mervin Field
• Introduced to George Gallup as a high school student in Princeton New Jersey in 1937
• Started the Field Poll in 1947
• Field Polls archived at the University of California since 1956
We Examine Over Time…
• Characteristics of Field Polls
• Demographic and Political Trends
• Partisan Coalitions
• Regional Polarization
• Evaluations of Economic Conditions
• Presidential and Gubernatorial Approval
Characteristics of Polls
• Dates: 1956 to 2008
• 273 Polls—Close to 300,000 Respondents
• Sample Size of each poll
• Number of polls per Year
• Mode of Interviewing
• Universe of People Sampled
Sample Size for Each Poll
Number of Polls Per Year
Mode of Interviewing
Universe of People Sampled
Interesting Trends Captured—Also Available in Census
• Income Earners
• Married Couples
• Ethnicity
• Education
Increasing Number of Income Earners in California Households
Decline in Percent Married
Changes in Ethnic Composition of CaliforniaSpanish
Interviewing Begins
Californians are Becoming More Educated
Also Captures Facts Not Captured Elsewhere
• Unionization
• Religiosity
• Partisanship
Union Membership Declined and Then Increased
Religious Preference: Increasing Catholic, Decreasing Protestant, Increasing No Preference
Two Measures of Partisanship
• Party Registration
• Party Identification
Compare Percent Registered as Republican Versus Percent Identified as Republican
Compare Percent Registered as Democrat Versus Percent Identified as Democrat
Trend in Partisanship: Republicans Caught Up During Reagan/Bush administration; Then Declined
Studying Changing Partisan Coalitions
• We combine registration and identification: When Party Registration not available, we use Party Identification Question:
The hybrid result is “Party Association”
• For various demographic groups, we plot the percentage that associates with the Republican party:
For example, the percentage of males over-time who are Republicans
Males More Republican than Females Since Reagan
Red is most Republican Group; Blue is most Democratic
College Educated Split Evenly Between Parties
Top Quartile More Republican; Bottom Quartile More Democratic
Non-Hispanic Whites Equally Split; Latinos more Democratic;
Blacks very Democratic
Those Unmarried but Living Together are Democrats
Protestants Republican, All Others Democratic
Four Regions of California
Divergence among Regions: LA and Bay Area Democratic;
Rest of State Republican
Sources of Partisan Division Over Time
TYPE OF ECONOMIC CONCERN
TIME PERIOD
Current Future
Personal Finances
FINAN1:Personal Finances Now vs. Year Ago
FINAN2:Personal Finances One Year From Now
California Economic Conditions
CALFIN1:CaliforniaEconomy Now
CALFIN2:CaliforniaEconomyOne YearFrom Now
Evaluations of Economic Conditions
Two Measures of the Current Economy
200720042001199819951992198919861983198019771974197119681965196219591956
Bad
In-B
etw
een
Good
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
California Economy NowPersonal Finances Now vs. Year Ago
Current Evaluations Trend Together with California Measure
Having Higher Variance
What Explains Variations in These Evaluations?
• Political party affiliation
• Real economic conditions
Political Party & Current Personal Financial Conditions
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
1983
1981
1979
1977
1974
1971
1969
1965
1959
Me
an
Fin
an
cia
l C
on
ditio
n L
ast
Ye
ar
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
Kenn
John
Nixon- Carter Reagan Bush Clinton Bush
Ford
Republican Party
Democratic Party
Those of Same Party as President Typically Have Similar but Higher Evaluations
of Current Personal Financial Conditions
Political Party & Current Personal Financial ConditionsRespondent Same Party as PresidentRespondent Not Same Party as President
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
1983
1981
1979
1977
1974
1971
1969
1965
1959
Me
an
Fin
an
cia
l C
on
ditio
n L
ast
Ye
ar 3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
Kenn
John
Nixon- Carter Reagan Bush Clinton Bush
Ford
Those of Same Party as President Typically Have Similar but Higher Evaluations of Current
Personal Financial Conditions
Political Party & Current California Economic ConditionsRespondent Same Party as GovernorRespondent Not Same Party as Governor
Respondents of Same Party Almost Always Have Higher Evaluation
200720042002200019971995199319911989198719811979
Cu
rre
nt
Ca
lifo
rnia
Eco
no
mic
Co
nd
itio
ns
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
.5
Wilson Davis Sw arz.DeukmejianBrow n
What Do We Conclude?
• Result:– Those of same party as President have higher
evaluations of current personal financial conditions– Those of same party as Governor have higher
evaluations of current California economic conditions (but effect is smaller)
• Explanations:– Projection from party affiliation to evaluation of
performance? – Incumbent party’s partisans doing better?
Current Personal Financial Conditions and Yearly Change in Per Capita Calif. Personal Income
Yearly Change in California Personal Income
Personal Finances Now vs. Year Ago (Rescaled)
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
1970
1968
1966
1964
1962
1960
1958
1956
Ye
arly
Ch
an
ge
in
Pe
rso
na
l In
co
me
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0
-4.0
-6.0
-8.0
Kennedy-Johnson
Nixon- Carter Reagan Bush Clinton BushFord
Eisen-how er
Correlation = .553
Current California Economic Conditions and Yearly Change in Per Capita Calif. Personal Income
2007
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
1983
1981
1979
1977
Ye
arl
y C
ha
ng
e in
Pe
rso
na
l In
co
me
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
Carter Reagan Bush Clinton Bush
Yearly Change in California Personal IncomeCalifornia Economic Conditions Now
Correlation = .534
Conclusions about Economic Measures
• Current Personal and especially Current California evaluations are greatly affected by real economic conditions
• Party affiliation is related to evaluations but much less than real conditions
Presidential and Gubernatorial Approval
• Measurement: Combining different question wordings using split samples
• Considering over-time:– Impact of Party– Impact of Real Economic Conditions
Presidential Approval and Political Party
Respondent Same Party as PresidentRespondent Not Same Party as President
2007
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
1983
1981
1979
1977
1974
1970
1963
1961
Pre
sid
en
tia
l A
pp
rova
l
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Kenn
John
Nixon- Carter Reagan Bush Clinton Bush
Ford
Gubernatorial Approval and Political Party
Respondent Same Party as GovernorRespondent Not Same Party as Governor
2005
2002
1999
1996
1993
1990
1987
1984
1981
1978
1975
1972
1969
1965
1961
Gu
be
rna
tori
al A
pp
rova
l
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Brow n Reagan Brow n Deukmejian Wilson Davis Sw arz.
Conclusions about Partisanship and Approvals
• Being of the same party as the Executive leads to about a 20% to 25% higher rating of the Executive than for those without party affiliation and
• Being of the same party as the Executive leads to about a 28% to 40% higher rating for the Executive than for those in the other party
• Projection or Doing Better?
Gubernatorial Approval and Current California Economic Conditions—Excellent Tracking
Current California Economic Conditions (rescaled)Gubernatorial Approval
200820052002199919961993199019871984198119781975
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Brow n Deukmejian Wilson Davis Sw arz.
Gubernatorial Approval and Current Per Capita Change in California Personal Income—Good Fit
Current Per Capita Change in Calif. Personal Income (rescaled)Gubernatorial Approval
2007
2004
2001
1998
1995
1992
1989
1986
1983
1980
1977
1974
1971
1968
1965
1962
1959
1956
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Brow n Reagan Brow n Deukmejian Wilson Davis Sw arz.
Yearly Per Capita Change
in California Personal Income
Evaluation of Current
California Economic
Conditions
Gubernatorial Approval
Gubernatorial Approval and Economic Conditions
Other Factors
Yearly Change in Per-Capita California Personal Income
2007
2004
2001
1998
1995
1992
1989
1986
1983
1980
1977
1974
1971
1968
1965
1962
1959
Ye
arl
y C
ha
ng
e in
Ca
lifo
rnia
Pe
rso
na
l In
co
me
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
Average Yearly Change of 2.33%
Economic Conditions and Gubernatorial Approval
• Average yearly change in per capita California personal income is 2.33%.
• An increase of this amount is associated with a 4.2% increase in Gubernatorial approval in the first year
• And a 3.7% increase in Gubernatorial approval in the next year
• Hence the total effect can be almost 8%
Much More to Be Learned!• Best available data on California for the over-
time study of:
– Religiosity, Unionization, Partisanship
– Mass Public’s Evaluation of Economic Conditions
– Gubernatorial and Presidential Approval in California
– Electoral Coalitions, Voting
Regional Polarization in Presidential Vote Choice from
1964 to 2004
Year
Co
un
ty
San Diego
Orange
San Bernardino
Kern
Tulare
Fresno
Los Angeles
San Mateo
Alameda
San Francisco
1964 1968 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004
0
20
40
60
80
100
Year
Co
un
ty
San Francisco
Alameda
San Mateo
Los Angeles
Fresno
Kern
Tulare
San Bernardino
San Diego
Orange
1964 1968 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004
0
20
40
60
80
100From South to North.
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