Facilitating Collective Intelligence: Advancing Applied Systems Science

Michael HoganNational University of Ireland, Galway

Galway, Ireland A lovely place to Study/Visit

Jaron Lanier argues:

1) The algorithm-driven direction of Web 2.0 is disempowering individuals and reducing the creativity of people online

2) The social-semantic web is distorting human relationships and distancing people from true intimacy.

Cathy O’Neill argues:

1) Many mathematical models (algorithms) we use to ‘resolve’ societal problems are opaque and have negative societal consequences (most people did not anticipate).

2) We need to work together to design models that support societal outcomes that we truly value

Therefore, let’s empower people to be creative, to design models together in a more intimate dialogic environment – supporting community and valued collective action. The web alone, and mathematical models alone, are insufficient tools. The application of psychology and the learning sciences are needed.

Consider two recent (most excellent) books

1. Enable clear communication

2. Promote positive group dynamics

3. Prevent under-conceptualization

4. Avoid cognitive overload

5. Allow informed choice-making

1. Rationalization of poor decisions

2. Stereotyped view of reality

3. Conformity pressure

4. Self-censorship

5. Illusion of Unanimity

Psychology and Learning Sciences:Groups can function very poorly

Groupthink may dominate

IT, Information System, and Semantic Web supportsIT, Information System, and Semantic Web supports

Developmental automaticity

Learning can be challenging. Creating a useful synthesis is often hard work.

John N. Warfield (1925-2009)

Relevant Books• 1976. Societal Systems: Planning, Policy, and Complexity. New York: Wiley Interscience. • 1990. A Science of Generic Design: Managing Complexity through Systems Design. Ames,

IA: Iowa State University Press 1994. • 1994. A Handbook of Interactive Management. With Roxana Cárdenas, Ames, IA: Iowa

State University Press 1994. • 2002. Understanding Complexity: Thought and Behavior. AJAR Publishing Company, Palm

Harbor, FL. • 2003. The Mathematics of Structure. AJAR Publishing Company, Palm Harbor, FL.• 2006. An introduction to systems science. Singapore: World Scientific.

Warfield, past president of the society for systems science, recognisedthat group communication often results in a ‘mess’.

Groups and teams find it challenging to arrive at a useful synthesis. They need methods and tools that help them communicate and learn.

Warfield developed Interactive Management

People use different mental models to describe the same problematic situation.

Hofstadter’s integration of Gödel's Incompleteness Theorem, the music of Bach, and the art of Escher

Kurt Fischer (Harvard): People integrate at different levels of complexity

Jay Forrester’s World Model.

Mathematical models can capture significant complexity but less often facilitate the resolution of social problems.

Forrester’s original World Model (1973) included 58 elements, 81 pair relations, and complex mathematical interdependencies.1. The model is quantitative, but includes many unstated qualitative assumptions. 2. The model is not the product of consensus and it is not presented in a way that can be readily understood by the public. 3. Many solutions can be generated depending on what assumptions are entered in a particular computer run. 4. Any decisions and solutions anticipated as a consequence of belief in the validity of the model would involve many individuals,

groups, and organizations to implement solutions.

When a group works to resolve a shared societal problem they need to build consensus models that facilitate collective action

Tools

MathematicsGraphicsWords

Mathematics of logic and structure:

eg., formal logic, graph theory, matrices

Mathematics of content:e.g., differential equations,

integral equations used to describe

phenomena in physics, chemistry, biology,

psychology, sociology.

What is Interactive Management?

• Integrated design process• Based in the theory of systems design• Specifically developed for dealing with complex

issues• Goals are to help participants:

– Develop understanding of the issues they face– Establish collective basis for thinking and working

cooperatively– Produce framework for effective action.

Essential Components ofIM Process

1. Participants2. Facilitation Team3. Group Methodologies4. Software Support5. Productive Workshop Space

12

3

4 5

Step 1: Idea Generation in response to a trigger question (e.g., what are barriers to well‐being in Ireland?)

Steps in the Interactive Management process

Step 2: Recording , posting, clarifying and categorising ideas on display walls

(3) Selection and ranking of sub-problems in the problem field

Statement Number of Sum of ranks Categoryvotes

2. Lack of clear incentives to 4 16 823. Clashing personalities and 4 10 412. Challenge of identifying l 3 8 64. Lack of identity for the new 3 9 217. Uncertainty regarding new 2 7 225. Lack of reward systems to 2 6 89. Difficulty in defining clust 2 6 124. Unrecognized value of soci 2 7 25. Specialization (mitigates ag 2 6 57. Lack of clear language that 2 6 519. Overdependence on "bureauc 2 4 622. Some individuals want to w 2 2 43. Lack of motivation or intere 2 7 713. Lack of opportunity for fo 1 3 326. Turf issues: individuals w 1 5 432. Someone needs to commit si 1 4 620. Divergence in methods, pro 1 5 528. Not really an existing, re 1 4 333. Institute based on what we 1 2 614. Lack of information/certai 1 1 515. Lack of translation of res 1 2 8-----------------------------------------------------------------------

(4) Structuring the interdependence between problems in the problem field

From voting, to matrix, to structure

Figure C‐1 shows a Boolean matrix (i.e., a matrix, all of whose entries are either 0 or 1). Thematrix rows and columns are identically indexed, the index numbers ranging from 1 to 15. Such amatrix might represent the information provided to the computer by a group of participants, inwhich e.g., 15 problems are interrelated (or possibly 15 options, or 15 events, etc.). The entries inthe matrix could represent a mix of the answers to questions posed to the participants and theanswers inferred by the computer (using a property of relationships known as transitivity).

Well-Being in Ireland ConferenceJune 8, 2012, NUI, Galway

Overcoming Barriers to Well-Being in Ireland: Workshop Report Lack of

trust/dissatisfaction with the system, government, and decision-makers in general (I) A national sense of

gloom due to emphasis on austerity (I)

Feelings of helplessness in the face of current global economic/ environmental conditions (B)

Stigma associated with mental health difficulties such as depression, anxiety and stress (E)

Corrosion of work-life balance, with people working longer/harder and taking the stresses of work home with them (E)

Lack of an effort to galvanise collective action around the issue of promoting well-being (F)

Lack of understanding as regards the nature of well-being and how to measurement it (H)

Maladaptive coping mechanisms (e.g. avoidance of problems or use of alcohol or drugs to deal with problems) (B)

Limited number of government initiatives designed to promote social capital (e.g., social cohesion and trust) (A)

Limited understanding of the factors that influence and increase well-being (H)

Lack of space for dialogue on holistic views of well-being (G)

Lack of funding for community well-being initiatives (D)

No national measurement of well-being (A)

Absence of holistic approaches to health-care (E)

Lack of education about the importance of well-being in schools and universities (G)

No charismatic champion or leader to advance the well-being of the nation (F)

(5) Generate options as a response to the structural problems

Multiple actors work in multiple directions

Many butterflies flap their wellbeing wings...

• Conduct research to establish the factors that individuals and communities consider important for well-being• Encourage community and voluntary organisations to showcase initiatives of best practice that are currently working well• Change aspects of the education system to incorporate understanding of well-being• Organise a “National Day of Well-being” to raise awareness• Set up well-being “think-tank” similar to the New Economics Foundation (NEF) in Ireland• Teach happiness skills e.g. CBT (Penn Resiliency Programme), mindfulness, loving-kindness meditation; providing a basis

for secular flourishing and meaning• Promote values and promote the process over the product• Encourage active lifestyles by developing cycle paths, open-air gyms etc• Promote resilience through education about emotions and coping strategies• Reduce/ban advertising of ‘junk’ food, especially that which targets children, and advocate healthier eating/lifestyle

advertising campaigns• Use the media to challenge stigma around mental illness.• Educate parents about how to regulate their children’s use of (social) media• “Positive lives, good lives”: Encourage media focus on “good” celebrities e.g. Nelson Mandela, Nobel Laureates , and

discuss their value and impact on society• Implement mental health campaigns to highlight and remove stigma around issues like depression, anxiety, alcoholism by

having positive role models participate in these campaigns e.g. sports stars• Reduce inefficiencies in the HSE and creatively redesign services• Implement an overarching resource allocation model to target resources at areas of greatest need• Develop a ‘code of practice’ for promotion of well-being in voluntary organisations• Pooling of funding between groups for shared resources related to well-being• Lack of funding: encourage sharing of existing resources between groups involved in promoting well-being• Develop education/programmes for parents/young people pm eating healthily on a budget/recipes. This could be school-

based and done by volunteers.• ‘Cost associated with healthy lifestyle’- often don’t need to pay money to engage in healthy behaviours eg. Sports

team/running vs gym, grow veg or shop in market vs organic food store• Etc.

Continue the dialogue and transform the system

Read Conference Report Here

Wellbeing : Designing Measures and Implementing Policies, June 2013

Trigger question for Design Conference: In the context of developing a new national wellbeing index for Ireland, what are the strategic objectives that should guide our efforts to enhance the wellbeing of the people of Ireland over the coming decade?

Top Ranked Strategic Objectives across Ten Wellbeing domains

Read Full Conference Report Here

How Strategic Objectives are seen by conference participants  to be related in an ‘enhancement structure’

Think global, act localThe Galway Healthy Cities Project

Overcoming Barriers to Wellbeing in Galway CityGalway Healthy Cities 2014

• A total 149 barriers to wellbeing were organised into 12 categories

• A total of 254 options to overcome barriers to wellbeing

• Synergist projects tacking leadership, community engagement, and awareness barriers

• Systems logic informing project design – empowering stakeholders

A strong well-being focus is now emerging in the local economic and community plan for Galway City

Basic and applied research using collective intelligence methods

• Basic Learning Sciences Research on Group Model Construction. Effects of: 1) Open versus Closed Group Dynamics2) Facilitator Prompts while structuring – generic versus informative3) Peer-to-Peer versus Facilitator Prompts

• Descriptive Social Science and Scale Development Projects1) Music and Wellbeing – (a) develop collective intelligence models, which then (b) inform scale

development project on the adaptive functions of music listening.2) Romantic Relationships and Wellbeing – developing a model describing interdependencies

between components of successful romantic relationships.3) Employee Sabotage – developing a model describing sabotage behaviours in academia, and

causes of these behaviours. 4) Critical Thinking: developing (a) a student-centered model of critical thinking and (b)

understanding the dispositions of good critical thinkers5) Entrepreneurial Competencies: developing a model describing interdependencies between

core entrepreneurial competencies. • Applied Social Science, Innovation Projects and Collective Action across Europe

1) The Sea for Society Project – Collective Intelligence work across 8 EU countries used in the design of 159 mobilisations activities focus on promoting marine ecosystem sustainability.

2) The Route-To-PA Project – Collective Intelligence and Scenario-Based Design work shapes the design of a new open data collaboration platform.

3) The Q-Tales Project - Collective Intelligence and Scenario-Based Design work shapes the design of a new collaboration platform for creation of e-books for Children.

The Social Psychology of Education Open versus Closed Group Dynamics

Harney, O., Hogan, M.J., Broome, B. (2012). Collaborative learning: the effects of trust and open and closed dynamics on consensus and efficacy. Social Psychology of

Education, 15, 517–532

• The effects of open versus closed voting and dispositional trust on perceived consensus and efficacy in a collective intelligence session.

• Two groups (N = 30) high or low on dispositional trust.

• Randomly assigned to two conditions:– Open = discussion prior to voting– Closed = silent voting

Owen Harney, NUIG

• Participants with higher dispositional trust, and those in more open working groups, reported higher levels of perceived consensus (p = .007 and p = .011, respectively).

• Also, reported higher levels of perceived efficacy of IM technology (p = .047 and p = .02, respectively).

Results

Generic versus information prompts – the role of the collective intelligence facilitator

• Four groups (N = 75 students in total) randomly assigned to two conditions

– Generic : simple feedback and instruction (“ok, well done, anyone else?”)

– Information: directed, process-level feedback (“what evidence supports your claim?” ; “Is your view consistent with John’s?” )

Harney, O. M., Hogan, M. J., Broome, B., Hall, T., & Ryan, C. (2015). Investigating the effects of prompts on argumentation style, consensus and perceived efficacy in collaborative learning. International Journal of Computer-Supported Collaborative Learning, 10(4), 367-394.

• Students in the informative prompt condition reported higher levels of perceived consensus after the collective intelligence session (p<.001).

• Students in the informative feedback condition also exhibited higher levels of sophistication in their arguments -- more propositions, amplifications, challenges, and more varied argumentation.

Results

16

17

18

19

20

Pre Post

Perceived consensus

Generic Information Generic Information

Music and Wellbeing Collective Intelligence & Scale Development

Research Questions

• Why do people listen to music?• How does music listening promote well-being?• Do older and younger adults differ in their uses

of music?

Jenny Groarke, NUIG

Figure 1. Sample younger adult Enhancement Structure

Figure 2. Sample older adult Enhancement Structure

The Adaptive Functions of Music Listening

Using Collective Intelligence to inform Scale Development

What scale items do we need to generate and what is the factor structure of our scale?

European Projects

Sea for Society Promoting Marine Sustainability 

Michelle DevaneyChristine DomeganBenjamin BroomeMichael Hogan

Behaviour Change and collective action across EuropeThe Sea for Society Project

Multidisciplinary partnership of 21 partners from 8 EU countries  that engages stakeholders, citizens and youth on societal issues related to the marine sustainability

Atlantic Region  Baltic Region Mediterranean Region 

France Sweden Greece

Ireland Poland Italy 

Portugal  Norway Spain 

Stakeholder Consultations

• What are the barriers to a sustainable marine ecosystem?

• 249 stakeholders participated in consultations across eight 

countries

• 774 barriers and 653 options generated in total. 

Citizen/Youth Consultations• What contributions do the sea 

and its resources make to your daily life?

• 318 citizen/youths were involved in consultations across eight 

countries

• 858 contributions and 832 options generated in total for a sustainable marine ecosystem

Stakeholder Meta Analysis ‐ 38 barrier categories across 6 themes ‐

• Knowledge Deficit• Conflict• Legislation• Human Population Growth• Short Term view• Sustainability

In total, the project partners organised 159 mobilisations activities reaching close to 500,000 people in Europe

International conferences Contests National conferences Exhibitions National workshops Trainings International workshops Open days Science and Sea festivals Think Tanks Blue Cafés, Blue Talks, Blue

Bars Blue weeks

A “day with” / a “night with” Webinar Intergroup Lectures Keep the beach clean activities Social media posts Books: edition and publication

Project Final Review, Luxemburg, 30.9.2016

44Q-Tales EU projectDesign a platform for authoring e-books for children

(using Scenario-based Collective Intelligence Design)

Objective: to understand barriers to literacy skill development, options to overcome these barriers, and the scenario specific needs of users of the Q-tales platform.

Method: We combined collective intelligence methodologies (Warfield, 2006) with scenario-based design (Carroll, 2000) and agile user story (Cohn, 2004) methods.

Scenarios describe the interaction between people and technology, and are used to identify specific user needs.

Collective Intelligence is used to understand the problem field, and options in response to the problem

Project Final Review, Luxemburg, 30.9.2016

Developing the Q-tales authoring tool and ecosystem

Educational Applications• We have developed a new final year psychology

module: Introduction to Collaborative Enquiry and Applied Systems Science.

• Students learn how to use collective intelligence methods to resolve different societal problems

• I’m currently working on a book: Facilitating Collective Intelligence.

• I blog about exercising our freedom and intelligence on Psychology Today

TeamsTeam orientation; Mutual performance monitoring;

Backup behavior management; Adaptability; Leadership; Mutual trust, Shared mental models; Closed loop

communication

TalentsCritical, Systems, Computational

Thinking; Social IQ

ToolsIM, AM, SEM,

SysD

Tasks Have social impact in mind when selecting goals

Develop an action plan

TerritoriesDefine a territory of influenceDiscovery a niche as a team

TimelinesThe project has a reasonable timeline

TotalitiesHave a vision and build pragmatic systems

TotalitiesHave a vision and build pragmatic systems

The Seven Ts Model - A Proposal for Systems Science Education

Hogan, M.J., Harney O. & Broome (2014). A Proposal for Systems Science Education. In, Wegerif, R., Kaufman, J. Li L. (Eds.). The Routledge Handbook of Research on Teaching Thinking. Hogan, M.J., Harney O. & Broome (2014). Integrating Argument Mapping with Systems Thinking Tools – Advancing Applied Systems Science. In, Knowledge Cartography: Software Tools and Mapping Techniques. (Eds.) Okada, A., Buckingham Shum, S. and Sherborne, T. Springer: Advanced Information and Knowledge Processing Series.

Thank you!

• For anyone who would like access to the collective intelligence software and a manual, please email: michael.hogan@nuigalway.ie

• We aim to build capacity in collective intelligence for basic and applied research purposes

• How might you use CI in your work?