F-Cell – World of Energy Solutions
Lessons learned from European infrastructure
deployment programmes
October 2014
Ben Madden
Element Energy Limited
About Element Energy
Element Energy is a leading low carbon energy consultancy . We apply best-in-class
financial, analytical and technical analysis to help our clients intelligently invest and create
successful policies, strategies and products.
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main sectors
We offer three main
services
Low Carbon
Transport • Electric vehicles
• H2 vehicles
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Strategy and Policy • Scenario planning
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• Stakeholder engagement
3
Germany, UK, France and Scandinavia all have advanced hydrogen mobility initiatives
H2
Focus of this
presentation
• Very strong tax incentives
• Network biased on
stations in strategic
locations
• Joint venture including
leading firms
• Aiming at an early
nationwide coverage of
stations
Other nations are also
beginning hydrogen
rollout planning
4
Existing demo
stations
Small university scale refuelers also exist in (not shown):
• Birmingham
• Coventry
• Glamorgan (S. Wales)
• Isle of Lewis
• Loughborough
• Nottingham
There are currently 13 existing and planned hydrogen refuelling
stations in the UK + a series of small university demos
Planned
HRS sites
are indicative
1 Publically accessible upon request
Existing HRS
Existing HRS ‘behind a fence’1
Planned HRS
| 5
London has been a particular focus of hydrogen activities for the
UK, making heavy use of EC funds
‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15
2003–2007
3 hydrogen buses on
fare-paying service:
>90% reliability
2011–ongoing
TfL running a fleet of
H2 buses, refuelled at
a depot in east
London
2011–ongoing
HyTEC project – 5 H2 taxis,
Hyundai vehicles and a
publicly accessible station
2002
LHP established to promote
H2 in London;
2013–ongoing
London Hydrogen
Network Expansion – 5
H2 cars, 6 vans, and 1
new station
2014-15
HyFIVE:
Different OEM
cars
2012/13
UK H2Mobility
Phase 1 and
Phase 2
6
• A 20 station network provides coverage at a 7km
level
• Stations can be positioned alongside major roads
and intersections without sacrificing coverage of large
population centres.
• A medium sized network of 13 stations can provide
comprehensive coverage based on 10km radii
• A basic network (based on existing funded stations
with one additional HRS) provides full coverage with
13km radii.
Geographic modelling suggests that an initial network of 6–20
HRS could provide full coverage of Greater London
20 stations
13 stations
6 stations
Travel time to
HRS (mins)*
Avg. 10
Max. 15
Avg. 14
Max. 21
Avg. 18
Max. 27
* Based on an average traffic speed across London of 29km/h.
The economic implications of alternative approaches to HRS network
development are explored in the refuelling network analysis section below.
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Much of the current infrastructure is designed for stand-alone un-manned
operations
The design for future permanent retail stations is still under development:
– Forecourts preferred by private customers
– Numerous integrated stations already present worldwide (e.g. US, Germany)
– Permitting for forecourts currently difficult in the UK, due to lack of detailed
guidance that regulators can use
– UK demonstration of forecourt solution expected to be deployed in 2015
Regulatory issues are being addressed in the UK to allow medium
term deployment of forecourt-integrated hydrogen stations
Source: Air Products, Shell
| 8
Open topics from UK demonstrations
Hydrogen purity – UK demos have used electrolysis or liquid H2 OR allowed lower
purity requirements than ISO 14687
H2 metering – metering requirements have been less strict than will be needed in a
commercial deployment
Siting – finding sites in dense urbane areas has proved very time consuming
Vehicle technology readiness - A number of classes of vehicle have demonstrated
an insufficient technology readiness for widespread roll-out (buses, taxis, vans)
An improved investment case is required - Individual stations in demonstration
projects have very poor economics which makes securing investment challenging
Vehicle pricing and sales volumes – demonstrations alone do not provide sufficient
confidence to begin rollout of national infrastructure
A number of important topics have not yet been satisfactorily
addressed by the demonstration activities
Suggests the need for co-ordination between industry and
government to begin the commercial rollout of H2 vehicles
| 9
UK H2Mobility is a public/private initiative co-ordinating the rollout
of fuel cell vehicles from 2015
• The UK H2Mobility project has evaluated the role of hydrogen
transport in the UK and is building a business case for
national rollout of vehicles and infrastructure.
• The project, which is a partnership between industry and
government, completed its first phase in 2012 and second
phase in 2013.
UK H2Mobility members (2013)
http://www.ukh2mobility.co.uk/
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Phase 3:
Implementation plan
Phase 2:
Business case
development
UK H2Mobility is now completing its third phase: planning to
implement the rollout strategy
Phase 1:
Role of hydrogen
transport in the UK and
strategy for rollout
2012 2013 2014
Project timeline taken from UK H2Mobility: Phase 1 Results (April 2013).
• UK-specific fact base
• Vision for hydrogen
transport in the UK
• Role of hydrogen
transport in meeting
strategic objectives
• Detailed business
case for delivering
the vision
• Consensus on how to
overcome key
barriers and market
failures
• Define roles of all
actors participating in
the rollout
• Detailed work to
prepare for station
installation e.g.
funding,
specifications,
locations
11
Pricing, production volumes and choice of launch markets have not yet been
declared by car manufacturers
Key focus of H2Mobility discussion in the UK and worldwide, as this affects the
speed and economics of the infrastructure rollout
The early station network will support the 1st generation of
commercial fuel cell vehicles
Commercialisation dates
Company Previous demos Before 2015 2015-2016 2017-2018 2019-2021
BMW 7 generations of H2
ICE saloons
Daimler >100 B-Class
vehicles
Honda >100 FCX clarity (C-
Class FC car)
Hyundai Now deploying a
fleet of ix35 SUV’s
Nissan 30 X-Trail SUV in
US/Japan
Toyota ~100 SUV vehicles
US/Japan/Germany
Source: company press releases
| 12
A relatively slow ramp-up is expected to 2020, with considerable
acceleration by 2030 (from public report)
Source: UK H2Mobility: Phase 1 Results (April 2013).
Overview
• Initial deployment of 65 stations, ~300 stations by 2025, ~1,150 by 2030.
• Around 1.6m FCEVs on the road by 2030, c.300k sales/yr in the UK
• In reality, rollout is likely to be linked to sales volumes rather than time to reduce
investment risks
| 13
The hydrogen station rollout will be phased, reflecting the
relatively low 1st generation vehicle sales
Source: UKH2Mobility Phase 1, public report
A station network strategy based on income,
car ownership and traffic densities has been
developed
An initial nationwide deployment of 65 stations
before 2020 is targeted to ‘seed’ the roll-out
This will be focussed initially around clusters
of stations in major urban centres
Linkage between clusters via major national
roads
The Phase 1 study revealed the importance of
securing more than one station in a region
to create consumer confidence
65 station network to 2020
(Phase 1 report)
| 14
The French H2 Mobilité project has prepared a National
Implementation Plan for hydrogen vehicles
Objectives
Develop a low-risk,
‘bankable’ deployment
plan, even in the early
years of the rollout
Ensure H2 plays a
strong role in the
broader ‘energy
transition’ in France
| 15
The use of ‘captive fleets’ could offer a lower risk pathway to a
national hydrogen station network
Captive fleet definition:
Fleet vehicles with predictable driving
and refuelling patterns, as well as
regular visits to or overnight parking
at a depot
Potentially suitable market segments:
Fleet cars Delivery/utility
Medium duty logistics Taxis
Rationale
Lower cost ‘range-extended’ fuel
cells could reduce ownership
costs of early vehicles
Can allow lower pressure fuelling
Benefits from existing fleet
regulations e.g. zero emissions
logistics/urban access restrictions
H2 stations and fleets could be
matched to improve utilisation
and economics
Fleet ‘anchor loads’ can support
early clusters, which can then be
connected to form corridors and
national coverage
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The captive fleet model allows a start on infrastructure rollout
whilst waiting for the right conditions for nationwide investment
Area where HRS provide coverage Highway with HRS HRS in place as of 2014
Clusters
2017 2020 2030
Clusters
• Affordable investments • Maximises HRS
utilisation rate
National-scale deployment
• Widespread network for passenger car drivers
• Sufficient vehicles to create viable business case for refuelling stations
Investment TRIGGERS
Supply of series FCEVs
• 2nd generation FCEV drives cost decrease
• Policy support • Evidence consumers will
buy
• Regulation barriers addressed
Linkage of clusters Full scale commercialisation
2025
PRECISE HRS LOCATIONS TO BE DEFINED IN NEXT PROJECT STEPS
| 17
Series-produced FCEVs will be
launched in 2014 and 2015 by Hyundai,
Honda and Toyota respectively
Pricing and choice of launch markets
will influence how national H2 mobility
programmes evolve
Resolving practical barriers and
deploying the initial network needs to
begin now
A wide variety of infrastructure
deployment plans and business
structures will be needed, reflecting the
conditions in each country
Sustained public support is also likely
to be required to de-risk the investments
before volume vehicle sales take-of
2014-2017 will be a crucial period for preparing launch markets
for the first generation of fuel cell vehicles
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