Download - Experian Automotive Quarterly Briefing Automotive Quarterly Briefing Fourth quarter 2016 automotive market share trends and registrations Brad Smith | Director, Automotive Market Statistics

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Experian Automotive Quarterly Briefing Fourth quarter 2016 automotive market share trends and registrations

Brad Smith | Director, Automotive Market Statistics

Marty Miller | Senior Product Manager, Vehicles in Operation (VIO)

2 © Experian Public

Today’s presentationPart one

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What’s on the Road

VIO by model year, segment, age and market share

U.S. light duty vehicles through December 31, 2016

U.S. medium and heavy duty vehicles through December 31, 2016

Marty Miller

Senior Product Manager, VIO


Q4 2016 Registrations

Market trends

Geographic performance

Manufacturer, make and model share

Loyalty, conquest and defection

Session overviewPart two

Brad Smith

Director, Automotive

Market Statistics


U.S. Total Vehicles in Operation = 283.8M

Light Duty

Passenger Cars, Light Trucks, Vans

Cars and GVW Class 1 - 3

Medium & Heavy Duty

Large Vans, Delivery Trucks, Buses, RVs,

Cement Trucks, Semi-Tractors

GVW Class 4 - 8

Power Sports

Motorcycles, All-Terrain,

Utility Task, Snowmobiles*Q4 2016 includes Puerto Rico


What’s on the road today?

Light Duty Vehicles

Vehicles in Operation


Source: Experian

Automotive as of

December 31, 2016

(U.S. light duty

vehicles only)

U.S. Vehicles In Operation

Q4 2015

258millionVehicles on

the road

Q4 2016

266millionVehicles on

the road

17.3*

NEWVEHICLES

DEALER

41.9*

USEDVEHICLES

198.2*

NOCHANGES

9.3*

EXIT

Out of Operation

*In millions;

Q4 2016 includes Puerto Rico Q4 2015 does not


VIO change by model year (in millions)Q4 2015 to Q4 2016 New Sales 17.3M

Out of

Operation

9.3M

Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2016 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)


Four cylinders dominate U.S. roadsFuel efficient, technology and more HP


VIO Top 20 segments on the road market share



VIO by manufacturer market share



VIO trend by quarter with estimated projectionProjections based on current consumer patterns



The aftermarket “Sweet Spot” is defined as 6 to 12 model year old vehicles, and because of their age, are out of the general OEM manufacturer warranty for any repairs.

These vehicles are within a time period when more part replacement or services are needed (e.g. shocks, timing belt service, engine repairs) that may be performed by aftermarket service shops which are supplied by aftermarket part manufacturers and retailers.

Defining the Sweet Spot size helps identify the overall market potential, and changes can have implications to those that service it.

“Post Sweet Spot” vehicles are defined as 13 model years old or older, and identify the models where less costs may be spent to service them due to their age and vehicle value.

“Pre Sweet Spot” vehicles are defined as 5 model years old or newer, and identify the incoming models into the Sweet Spot.

The aftermarket “Sweet Spot” overview“Post” and “Pre” Sweet Spot defined


Trend of total VIO compared to sweet spot volumesVIO by model year (in millions)

85M vehicles within

“Sweet Spot”

(MY2005 – 2011) Pre-Sweet

Spot

Post-Sweet

Spot



Sweet Spot changingManufacturer market share by age groups



Sweet Spot vehicles, where are they?Index Sweet Spot to total VIO count by state



Top 10 Sweet Spot commercial vehiclesVocation VIO



What’s on the road today?

Medium and Heavy Duty Trucks

Vehicles in Operation


What’s on the road today? VIO by model yearMedium and heavy duty vehicles

32.7% of VIO

MY2010+

68.3% of VIO

MY2001+

83.8% of VIO

MY1996+

Vehicles in

Operation

Q4 2016

7.1 million

Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2016 (U.S. medium and heavy duty vehicles only)


Market share by GVW Class and Fuel TypeMedium and heavy duty vehicles

GVW Class Fuel Type



High level Vocation market shareMedium and heavy duty vehicles


© Experian [Public, Confidential, Internal, Restricted – choose the appropriate category]

U.S. Market Overview

• New registration totals• Year over year changes in performance• Share by sales category• Impact of demographics on purchasing behavior• Share across geographies and vehicle segments• Brand leaders


16.02

13.18

10.15

11.62

12.70

14.31

15.27

16.2617.12 17.30

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

New

Veh

icle

Reg

istr

ations (

Mill

ion

s)

Annual New Registrations

U.S. passenger car and light truck surpassed 17 million units for the second consecutive year

New vehicle registrations

All Sales Categories

Through December 2016


-17.72%

-23.05%

14.56%

9.26%

12.65%

6.73% 6.52%5.29%

1.03%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

% Y

OY

Cha

ng

e

Year over Year Change in New Vehicle Registrations

Gains in annual new vehicle registrations have been steadily declining since 2012





0.09%

0.91%

5.59%

13.69%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16%

Retail

Rental/Lease

Commercial/Taxi

Government

Year Over Year Change

2015 vs. 2016 Change by Sales Category

Retail registrations were nearly unchanged from 2015, but fleet categories experienced significant gains





4.35%

17.18% 17.17%

21.59%

20.19%19.52%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

% N

ew

In

div

idu

al R

eta

il R

eg

istr

ations

Distribution of New Individual Retail Registrations

The majority of new vehicle buyers in the U.S. are 45 years of age or older

New individual vehicle registrations



51.59%13.86%

25.11%

3.64%

3.57%

13.07%

10.57%

16.72%

11.98%

11.71%

18.22%

10.52%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

$1,000,000+

$750,000 - $999,999

$450,000 - $749,999

$350,000 - $449,999

$250,000 - $349,999

$200,000 - $249,999

$160,000 - $199,999

$100,000 - $159,999

Less than $100,000

Distribution of New Individual Registrations by Estimated Home Value & Vehicle Class

Distribution of New Individual Registrations by Estimated Home Value

Grand Total Non-Luxury Luxury Exotic

Estimated home value is a strong predictor of vehicle purchase activity within the Exotic and Luxury segments




2.39%

2.46%

2.65%

2.92%

3.05%

3.22%

3.42%

3.55%

3.60%

4.27%

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5%

Striving Single Scene

Boomers and Boomerangs

Town Elders

Silver Sophisticates

No Place Like Home

Digital Dependents

Unspoiled Splendor

Fast Track Couples

Aging in Place

Aging in Aquarius

Non-Luxury

Experian’s Mosaic lifestyle segmentation is also an excellent predictor of vehicle purchase activity

2.34%

2.76%

3.33%

3.69%

3.79%

4.60%

4.61%

5.01%

7.69%

12.67%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%

Golf Carts and Gourmets

Couples with Clout

Fast Track Couples

Generational Soup

Kids and Cabernet

Cosmopolitan Achievers

Platinum Prosperity

Aging in Aquarius

Silver Sophisticates

American Royalty

Luxury



Experian Mosaic Lifestyles


1.49%

1.65%

1.76%

1.95%

2.24%

2.27%

2.31%

2.40%

2.45%

2.63%

2.70%

2.73%

2.89%

6.86%

7.66%

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9%

ORLANDO-DAYTONA BCH-MELBRN

PHOENIX (PRESCOTT)

TAMPA-ST. PETE (SARASOTA)

ATLANTA

WASHINGTON, DC (HAGRSTWN)

MIAMI-FT. LAUDERDALE

HOUSTON

SAN FRANCISCO-OAK-SAN JOSE

BOSTON (MANCHESTER)

DALLAS-FT. WORTH

DETROIT

PHILADELPHIA

CHICAGO

LOS ANGELES

NEW YORK

Total Passenger Car / Light Truck Registrations by DMA (2016)

The New York DMA accounted for more than 1 million new vehicle registrations in 2016 and 7.66% share of the market




DMA® is a registered service

mark of The Nielsen Company.

Used under license.


1.55%

2.11%

2.41%

2.96%

4.61%

15.32%

30.51%

40.53%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Wagon

All Others

Minivan

Coupe

Hatchback

Pickup

Sedan

CUV/SUV

2016 Share by Vehicle Type

Crossover and Sport Utility vehicles remain popular with U.S. consumers accounting for 40% of the market in 2016

2.38%

2.49%

2.75%

4.28%

5.09%

11.57%

12.57%

13.22%

13.89%

17.81%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

Non-Luxury Mid-Size Minivan

Non-Luxury Full CUV/SUV

Non-Luxury Mid-Size Pickup

Non-Luxury Small Hatchback

Luxury Mid-Size CUV/SUV

Non-Luxury Small Sedan

Non-Luxury Full Pickup

Non-Luxury Mid-Size CUV/SUV

Non-Luxury Mid-Size Sedan

Non-Luxury Small CUV/SUV

2016 Share by Vehicle Segment




Experian Segmentation


3.33%

3.76%

3.95%

4.06%

8.35%

11.19%

11.77%

12.59%

15.46%

16.91%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18%

VW

Kia

Hyundai

Subaru

Nissan

Honda

FCA US LLC

Ford

Toyota

GM

2016 U.S. Market Share by Manufacturer

General Motors out sold Toyota by over 200k units to lead all manufacturers in U.S. market share





3.29%

3.76%

3.95%

4.06%

5.30%

7.54%

10.14%

11.32%

11.94%

12.88%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%

GMC

Kia

Hyundai

Subaru

Jeep

Nissan

Honda

Chevrolet

Ford

Toyota

2016 U.S. Market Share by Make

Toyota out sold Ford by over 130k units to lead all brands in U.S. market share in 2016





1.80%

1.87%

2.16%

2.16%

2.31%

2.37%

2.46%

2.53%

2.61%

3.06%

0% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 3% 4%

Ram 1500

Nissan Rogue

Toyota Corolla

Toyota Camry

Toyota RAV4

Honda Accord

Honda CR-V

Honda Civic

Chevrolet Silverado 1500

Ford F150

2016 U.S. Market Share by Model

Once again the Ford F150 is the best selling vehicle in America, with over 430k new vehicle registrations




© Experian [Public, Confidential, Internal, Restricted – choose the appropriate category]

U.S. Loyalty, Conquest and Defections

• Loyalty trends• Impact of demographics on repurchase loyalty• Loyalty by owned vehicle type• Brand leaders• Conquest to defection ratios


59.0% 59.1% 59.5%61.1% 61.3% 62.3% 62.8%

50.6% 49.6% 50.3%52.2% 52.4% 53.5% 54.5%

19.5% 18.6% 19.4% 20.7% 21.2% 22.0% 23.0%

12.5% 12.0% 13.1%14.8% 15.3% 15.6% 16.3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Industry Loyalty Rates

Manufacturer Make Model Dealer Lender

Across the U.S. auto industry rates of repurchase loyalty have been steadily increasing

Household Methodology

All Purchase Types

Through November 2016


58.3%55.4%

59.9%

64.4%68.2%

70.4%

49.7%47.1%

50.8%

55.4%59.6%

61.9%

19.9% 19.3%21.5%

24.5%27.4%

30.5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

Household Loyalty Rates by Age


Generally speaking, loyalty rates across vehicle, dealer and lender dimension increase with owner age


All Purchase Types


Excludes unmatched and unknown records


Manufacturer loyalty falls with rises in estimated home value while loyalty to lenders increases

66.6% 66.4% 65.5% 64.6% 63.3%61.3%

59.1%57.0% 56.8%

14.5% 15.5% 16.2% 16.6% 17.5% 18.6% 19.6% 20.6% 21.3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Less Than$100,000

$100,000 -$159,999

$160,000 -$199,999

$200,000 -$249,999

$250,000 -$349,999

$350,000 -$449,000

$450,000 -$749,999

$750,000 -$999,999

$1,000,000+

Household Loyalty Rates by Estimated Home Value



All Purchase Types


Excludes unmatched and unknown records


New vehicle buyers are the most loyal across to their brands, dealers and lenders

68.4%

61.2%

28.3%

35.9%

23.0%

66.9%

61.5%

25.3% 24.9%

19.4%

52.5%

41.8%

13.4%

0.6%3.9%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%


Repurchase Loyalty by Owned Vehicle Type

New Certified Used Non-Certified Used


All Purchase Types



29.9%

42.5%

42.8%

49.4%

51.4%

51.9%

56.5%

57.4%

57.8%

59.9%

62.9%

63.7%

63.9%

64.7%

65.7%

66.8%

68.7%

73.6%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

Mitsubishi

Mazda

Volvo

Tata

Porsche

VW

Hyundai

Nissan

BMW

Kia

Daimler

FCA US LLC

Honda

GM

Ford

Subaru

Toyota

Tesla

Manufacturer Loyalty

Toyota leads all multi-brand manufactures with 68.7% manufacturer loyalty rate, up 1 percentage point from 2015


All Purchase Types



48.1% 48.6% 48.6% 49.2% 51.1% 51.4%53.9%

56.5% 56.7% 57.3% 57.8% 59.7% 59.9%61.9% 62.8% 63.0% 64.3% 65.0% 66.8%

73.6%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Make Loyalty

With a year over year increase in loyalty of 5.7 percentage points, Tesla leads all brands in owner loyalty


All Purchase Types



36.8%37.4%

37.6%37.7%37.7%

38.6%38.7%

39.7%40.2%

40.4%

40.4%40.6%

41.9%

42.6%

43.2%

43.9%44.3%

45.5%

46.3%50.9%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Tesla Model S

GMC Sierra 1500

Acura RDX

Lexus LX570Toyota RAV4smart fortwo

Honda CR-VSubaru Forester

Kia Soul

Nissan RogueRam 3500

Lexus ES350Lexus RX350

Chevrolet Silverado 1500

Chevrolet Volt

Lincoln MKZSubaru Outback

Lincoln MKXFord F150

Ram 1500

Model Loyalty

Ram 1500, with a year over year increase in model loyalty of 5.7 percentage points led all models in loyalty


All Purchase Types



0.46

0.66

0.99

0.99

1.01

1.06

1.06

1.08

1.22

1.24

1.33

1.36

1.61

1.61

1.85

2.41

3.44

13.77

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

GM

Ford

Mitsubishi

Toyota

FCA US LLC

Volvo

Nissan

Honda

VW

BMW

Hyundai

Mazda

Daimler

Porsche

Tata

Kia

Subaru

Tesla

Manufacturer C/D Ratio

Tata led all multi-brand manufacturers with a conquest to defection ratio of 1.85 to 1


All Purchase Types



1.061.081.11.111.21.211.221.241.331.361.46

1.61.611.611.63

1.921.982.032.09

2.413.44

4.2313.77

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

VolvoNissan

GMCHondaScionLexusBMWMINI

HyundaiMazdaJaguar

JeepPorscheLincoln

Mercedes-BenzLand Rover

AudiMaserati

FIATKia

SubaruRam

Tesla

Make C/D Ratio

With a loyal owner base and strong conquesting, Tesla leads all manufacturers with a C/D ratio of 13.77 : 1


All Purchase Types


Brands not shown had Conquest /

Defection ratio less than 1


• VIO volumes continue to increase even as the Aftermarket Sweet Spot declines to 85M vehicles

• 4 cylinder vehicles continue to dominate the market thanks to new technologies

• 2016 new vehicle registrations reached 17.3 million units

– Growth is slowing as 2016 totals were 1% greater than 2015

• Retail market was flat when compared to 2015

• Estimated home value is a strong predictor of exotic and luxury vehicle purchase activity

• General Motors led all manufactures with 16.9% share

• Toyota led all brands with 12.9% of the market

• Once again Ford F150 was the best selling vehicle in the U.S. market

• Repurchase loyalty rates continue to climb across vehicle, dealer and lender dimensions

Summary


Today’s presentation

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