Hotel and Economic
Outlook in Europe
Elizabeth Winkle
Managing Director, STR Global
Our coverage as of August 2013
32,486 hotels
3,851,989 rooms
672 hotels
106,080 rooms
638 hotels
115,842 rooms
486 hotels
127,280 rooms
8,140 hotels
1,148,815 rooms
5,118 hotels
1,048,878 rooms
Global performance As of August 2013
Europe €
YE11 YE12 YTD 13
5.4% 4.4% 0.5%
Asia Pacific $
YE11 YE12 YTD 13
3.8% -0.3% -3.8 %
North America $
YE11 YE12 YTD 13
8.0% 6.4% 5.7%
Middle East & Africa $
YE11 YE12 YTD 13
-2.1% 5.4% 5.5%
Constrained Supply YTD 2013, YoY % Chg, supply, demand, RevPAR
Asia Pacific
Europe €
Middle East
C&SA North America
Africa
-1%
1%
3%
5%
7%
9%
11%
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7%
Dem
and
Supply
Back to Peak? RGI Index on YE 2008, US dollars, only Europe in Euros
0.75
0.8
0.85
0.9
0.95
1
1.05
1.1
1.15
1.2
YE 2007 YE 2008 YE 2009 YE 2010 YE 2011 YE 2012
Africa
Europe
Middle East
N. America
Asia Pacific
CSA
USA vs Europe Demand Percent Change 12MMA % change YE 2000 to Mar 2013
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
USA Europe
Aug‘13
2.4%
Aug‘13
2.6%
Nov ‘10
6.8%
Feb ‘11
7.7%
Jul ‘09
-7.3% Aug ’09
-7.1%
Mar ‘02
-4.7%
Mar ‘02
-5.5%
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Europe
Europe Room Supply/Demand %Chg
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Supply % Chg Demand % Chg
12MMA YE 2005 to Aug 2013
Nov ‘10
6.8%
Jul ‘09
-7.3%
Aug‘13
2.6%
Europe Occ/ADR %Chg
-14%
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Occ % Chg ADR % Chg
12MMA – YE 2005 to Aug 2013
Aug ‘13
1.7%
May ‘11
5.8% Jan ‘11
5.4%
Jul ‘09
-8.4% Nov ‘09
-11.5%
Aug ‘13
-0.1%
Europe RevPAR % Chg
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
RevPAR % Chg
12 MMA YE 2005 to Aug 2013 May ‘11
10.9%
Oct ‘09
-18.2%
Aug ‘13
1.5%
Europe actual performance
20 €
30 €
40 €
50 €
60 €
70 €
80 €
90 €
100 €
0
200,000,000
400,000,000
600,000,000
800,000,000
1,000,000,000
1,200,000,000
1,400,000,000
1,600,000,000
1,800,000,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Supply Demand RevPAR
12 MMA YE 2005 to Aug 2013
European Regions Occ/ADR/RevPAR YTD 2012 & YTD 2013 in €
YTD 2012 Occ ADR RevPAR
Total 63.6 102.49 65.16
Eastern 56.1 92.41 51.87
Northern 67.8 96.46 65.43
Southern 59.5 98.22 58.40
Western 64.2 116.40 74.74
YTD 2013 Occ ADR RevPAR
Total 67.2 101.97 68.49
Eastern 60.6 84.47 51.22
Northern 72.5 94.16 68.24
Southern 63.1 106.22 67.03
Western 66.1 113.68 75.18
Key Cities - Europe YTD August 2013, % Chg, Occ and ADR (local currency)
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Occupancy ADR
Key European Cities
€50
€100
€150
€200
€250
€300
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
Occupancy ADR €
YTD August 2013 Occupancy & ADR - €
£134
Pipeline Europe
4.33M
33,972 134,819
Supply
Existing Recently Opened Pipeline
7% 15%
22%
18% 6% 11%
21%
Active Pipeline
Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale
Upper Midscale Midscale Economy
Unaffiliated
Distribution of Pipeline Rooms
Top Pipeline - New Rooms 2013 & 2014
Lost Decade? EUzone GDP/Demand % chg
-15
-12
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
2004 2009 2014
GDP Demand
*Eurozone Demand & GDP % Change, Quarterly 2004 – 2014F
GDP Source: Oxford Economics
2013 Forecast
2014 Forecast
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