Erasmus University RotterdamGlobal Urban Competitiveness Project
iUrban Conference
Barcelona and the new inclusive growth strategy
Joan TrullénInstitut d’Estudis Regionals I Metropolitans de Barcelona
Vice-president of Strategic Planning Àrea Metropolitana de Barcelona
April 9th, 2014
Contents:
1. Introduction
2. Barcelona 1986-2013: economy and society
3. The new inclusive growth strategy for Barcelona
4. Conclusions
3
Theoretical framework:
The process of economic growth…
Piketty (Capital in the XXI Century): Is it inexorable linked with an increase of inequality?
Kuznets (curve): Is it inexorable linked with the reduction of inequality?
In a stable macroeconomic environment, urban and metropolitan policies can achieve economic growth and greater income equality at the same time
1. Introduction and objectives1. Introduction
4
Cities as actors for inclusive growth
Potential of cities to foster inclusive growth Central role of macroeconomic policies to promote
welfare state Role of urban and metropolitan policies to promote
growth and inclusiveness
Barcelona as an example of success of urban policies that foster inclusive growth between 1985 and 2006
1. Introduction and objectives1. Introduction
Contents:
1. Introduction and objectives
2. Barcelona 1986-2013: economy and society
3. The new inclusive growth strategy for Barcelona
4. Conclusions
6
1. Introduction and objectives2. Barcelona 1986-2013: economy and society
7
The evolution of the metropolis of Barcelona from 1985 to 2006:
1. The metropolis of Barcelona has been a pioneer in the design of urban strategies that promote economic growth and correct the inequality
2. Economic growth between 1985 and 2006 resulted in the creation of 1.2 million new jobs) (Barcelona province).
3. The Gini index of disposable income reduces from 0.39 in 1985 to 0.29 in 2006
1. Introduction and objectives2. Barcelona 1986-2013: economy and society
8
1. Introduction and objectives
Jobs in Barcelona from 1977 to 2013 and trend for 2023 (thousands)
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0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
1,605.3
2,593.8
2,042.0
f(x) = 30.9923956851588 x + 1261.89921171171
+437
+989
Source: IERMB from INE
2. Barcelona 1986-2013: economy and society
9
1. Introduction and objectives
How has expanded geographically the metropolis of Barcelona?
1. The metropolis of Barcelona between 1986 and 2001 has consolidated as a large European metropolis.
2. In 2001, the metropolitan labor market already included half of the province of Barcelona.
3. The expansion of the metropolis takes place simultaneously with the expansion of the foreign markets in the European Union.
2. Barcelona 1986-2013: economy and society
10
1. Introduction and objectives
The process of territorial expansion of the metropolitan areas in Catalunya. 1986-2001
a) 1986 b) 1991 c) 1996 d) 2001
Source: Trullén and Boix (2000), Boix and Galletto (2004), and Boix and Veneri (2008).
2. Barcelona 1986-2013: economy and society
• Territorial expansion and formation of the metropolitan area from 1986
– 164 cities – 4.8 millions inhabitants – 2.2 millions jobs– Employment growth rate:
2.6% annual average from 1991 to 2008.
• Polycentric network of cities
Barcelona
Barcelona
Pla Estratègic Metropolitàde Barcelona
Source: Trullén and Boix (2006)
11
The metropolitan region of Barcelona
2. Barcelona 1986-2013: economy and society
12
1. Introduction and objectives
Contribution of domestic and foreign demand to GDP growth in Spain, in percentage points, 2001 - 2013
Source: INE
Foreign sector1T
200
1
3T 2
001
1T 2
002
3T 2
002
1T 2
003
3T 2
003
1T 2
004
3T 2
004
1T 2
005
3T 2
005
1T 2
006
3T 2
006
1T 2
007
3T 2
007
1T 2
008
3T 2
008
1T 2
009
3T 2
009
1T 2
010
3T 2
010
1T 2
011
3T 2
011
1T 2
012
3T 2
012
1T 2
013
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
Contribution of domestic demand Contribution of foreign demand GDP growth
Foreign demandDomestic demand
2. Barcelona 1986-2013: economy and society
13
1. Introduction and objectives
Source: IERMB from WTO Statistics database, DATACOMEX (AEAT) and Eurostat.
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0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
1.13% 1.47%
0.46% 0.41%
4.70%
5.75%
1.89%1.59%
Catalonia over EU15 Catalonia over World total
Spain over EU15 Spain over World total
Foreign sector
2. Barcelona 1986-2013: economy and society
Weight of Catalan and Spanish exports over EU-15 and world, 1995-2012
14
1. Introduction and objectives
How has the crisis affected the metropolis of Barcelona?
1. The crisis between 2008 and 2013 has led to the destruction of 0.5 million jobs (Barcelona province).
2. The Gini index of disposable income increases from 0.29 in 2006 to 0.33 in 2011.
3. In five years (2006-2011), income distribution has worsened to the level of 1995.
2. Barcelona 1986-2013: economy and society
15
1. Introduction and objectives
Income and living conditions
Source: IERMB, Survey on Living Conditions and Habits of the Population, 1985-2000; Idescat and IERMB, Survey on Living Conditions and Habits of the Population, 2006-2011.
Gini index of disposable income. Barcelona and Barcelona Metropolitan Area (BMA), 1985-2011.
2. Barcelona 1986-2013: economy and society
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0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.450.398
0.3590.339 0.322 0.308
0.346
0.373
0.304 0.291 0.2890.264
0.301
Barcelona Rest of BMA
16
1. Introduction and objectives
S80/S20 ratio of disposable income. Barcelona and Barcelona Metropolitan Area (BMA), 1985-2011.
Source: IERMB, Survey on Living Conditions and Habits of the Population, 1985-2000; Idescat and IERMB, Survey on Living Conditions and Habits of the Population, 2006-2011.
Income and living conditions
2. Barcelona 1986-2013: economy and society
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2
3
4
5
6
7
8
97.76
4.794.18
5.14 4.83
6.106.91
4.10 3.79 3.70 3.71
5.15
Barcelona Rest of BMA
17
1. Introduction and objectives
S90/S10 ratio of disposable income. Barcelona and Barcelona Metropolitan Area (BMA), 1985-2011.
Source: IERMB, Survey on Living Conditions and Habits of the Population, 1985-2000; Idescat and IERMB, Survey on Living Conditions and Habits of the Population, 2006-2011.
Income and living conditions
2. Barcelona 1986-2013: economy and society
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4
6
8
10
12
14
16 14.55
7.827.04 6.65 7.11
11.3813.24
6.65
3.764.81 5.01
9.15
Barcelona Rest of BMA
18
1. Introduction and objectives
Type of household according to kinship. Barcelona Metropolitan Area, 1985-2011. Population over 18 years
Note: Data for 1985 refer to the 27 municipalities of the former Metropolitan Corporation of Barcelona.Source: IERMB, Survey on Living Conditions and Habits of the Population, 1985-2000; Idescat and IERMB, Survey on Living Conditions and Habits of the Population, 2006-2011.
Income and living conditions
2. Barcelona 1986-2013: economy and society
1985 1990 1995 2000 2006 20110%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
5.2 7.3 5.9 7.7 8.3 8.33.1 2.5 2.4 3.0 4.6 5.815.2 18.8 16.2
20.125.0
30.2
69.0 64.2 67.0 59.852.6 44.0
6.2 5.5 7.3 8.3 8.0 10.51.2 1.7 1.2 1.0 1.5 1.2
One person without core Two or more people with core Childless coupleCouple with children Parent with children Two or more cores
19
1. Introduction and objectives
Place of Birth. Barcelona Metropolitan Area, 1985-2011. Population over 18 years
Note: Data for 1985 refer to the 27 municipalities of the former Metropolitan Corporation of Barcelona.Source: IERMB, Survey on Living Conditions and Habits of the Population, 1985-2000; Idescat and IERMB, Survey on Living Conditions and Habits of the Population, 2006-2011.
Income and living conditions
2. Barcelona 1986-2013: economy and society
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10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
52.2 53.3 60.0 62.2 59.5 52.7
46.1 44.7 38.6 36.329.4
25.3
1.7 2.0 1.5 1.511.1
22.1
Catalonia Rest of Spain Rest of the World
20
1. Introduction and objectives
Level of finished studies. Barcelona Metropolitan Area, 1990-2011. Population over 18 years
Income and living conditions
Note: Data for 1985 refer to the 27 municipalities of the former Metropolitan Corporation of Barcelona.Source: IERMB, Survey on Living Conditions and Habits of the Population, 1985-2000; Idescat and IERMB, Survey on Living Conditions and Habits of the Population, 2006-2011.
2. Barcelona 1986-2013: economy and society
1990 1995 2000 2006 20110%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
62.7 57.6 54.944.6 43.1
19.1 23.7 22.024.9 25.9
18.2 18.7 23.030.5 30.9
Compulsory education or lower Post-compulsary secondary ed.Higher education
Contents:
1. Introduction and objectives
2. Barcelona 1986-2013: economy and society
3. The new inclusive growth strategy for Barcelona
4. Conclusions
22
1. Introduction and objectives3. The new inclusive growth strategy for Barcelona
Against the crisis: the metropolis of Barcelona
Barcelona is the “engine” of the Spanish exports (20% of Spanish exports)
• Barcelona has to lead the Spanish recovery from the crisis
• So, it’s necessary to enhance the competitiveness and productivity
Territorial factors of productivity:
• Interaction between economy and urbanism
• Metropolitan infrastructures: strategic role of the airport/port and of Intermodal railway station of La Sagrera
The metropolitan strategy has a key role in the recovery from the crisis
23
Local factors to increase productivity
Productivitygrowth
MID
G. Becattini
R.CamagniMetropolis
Porter –KramerSharedValue,
clusters
J. JacobsDiversity
Localization economies
Network economiesUrbanization economies
The “micro” factorthe new firm
Diversity economies
3. The new inclusive growth strategy for Barcelona
24
1. Introduction and objectives
Policy strategies for the Barcelona Province
Barcelona
Matarò
Girona Vic
Granollers Igualada.
Lleida
Tarragona
Reus Vilanova i la G.
Vilafrancad.P.
Sabadell Terrassa Martorell
Manresa
Legend
Annual Average GDP Growth Rate 2005-2025
The Proactive Scenario
0,00000-3,529694
3,529695 - 3,848386
3,848387 - 3,953337
3,953338 - 5,188075
Figueres
Tortosa
Orbital New railway lines Existing railway lines Knowledge poles and Knowledge platforms Identity platforms
Source: Trullén 2011, Camagni 2011 ESPON Project
3. The new inclusive growth strategy for Barcelona
25
1. Introduction and objectives
Strategy for the metropolitan region of Barcelona: metropolitan area, orbital cities and transversal axis
Source: Own elabotarion.
Rent
Distance from the centre
Productivity levels in the proactive scenario
Productivity levels in the reference scenario
Barcelona and Metropolitan Area Orbital cities and villages Tranversal axis Vic - Manresa - Igualada
Farm land rent
Difference in productivity growth rates: < < Rent in the center
of the metropolis
Source: Trullén 2011
3. The new inclusive growth strategy for Barcelona
26
1. Introduction and objectives
The Metropolitan Area of Barcelona and the European mega regions:
a new territorial framework for a new metropolitan strategy
The European mega regional dynamic
The Lyon – Barcelona mega region
Indicators of economic activity
Indicators of innovative activity
3. The new inclusive growth strategy for Barcelona
27
Mega-region Population km2 inhab/km2
Am-Brus-Twerp 62.331.069 166.218 375
Barce-Lyon 29.067.891 111.816 260
Berlin 4.540.513 5.566 816
Frank-Gart 34.753.485 114.870 303
Glas-burgh 3.863.299 11.852 326
Lisbon 10.459.976 40.974 255
London 51.846.094 111.972 463
Madrid 6.904.141 14.340 481
Paris 24.204.737 97.080 249
Prague 17.778.045 92.606 192
Rom-Mil-Tur 55.614.000 199.791 278
Vienna-Budapest 46.574.691 217.372 214
Total 347.937.941 1.184.456 294
Evolution of the twelve European mega regions (1992-2009)
Source: IERMB
Main characteristics of the European mega regions (2009)
Source: IERMB
3. The new inclusive growth strategy for Barcelona
28
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5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000Am-Brus-Twerp
Barce-Lyon
Berlin
Frank-Gart
Glas-burgh
Lisbon
London
Madrid
Paris
Prague
Rom-Mil-Tur
Vienna-Budapest
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50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450Am-Brus-Twerp
Barce-Lyon
Berlin
Frank-Gart
Glas-burgh
Lisbon
London
Madrid
Paris
Prague
Rom-Mil-Tur
Vienna-Bu-dapest
Evolution of the European mega region economic activity (GDP/inhab.)
Source: IERMB
Evolution of the European mega region innovation activity (patents/million inhab.)
All mega regions have experienced an increase in the GDP per capita in the period of 1995-2007. Although there are signs of stagnation of the economy from 2008 because of the current financial crisis.
Regarding the indicator of innovation used in this study (the number of patents per million inhabitants), there is a slight upward trend.
Conclusion: Promote network strategies between cities and metropolis in each mega region based on innovation policies
Source: IERMB
3. The new inclusive growth strategy for Barcelona
Contents:
1. Introduction and objectives
2. Barcelona 1986-2013: economy and society
3. The new inclusive growth strategy for Barcelona
4. Conclusions
30
1. Introduction and objectives4. Conclusions
Inequality and economic growth are not inexorably linked: economic and urban and metropolitan policies can and must have a role in fostering growth while at the same time reducing inequalities.
Cities and metropolitan areas are where inequalities are greatest. Limiting the study of inequality to national or regional data may hide this fact. Actually, the focus should be what happens inside metropolitan areas: the Gini index in the centre of the metropolitan area, Barcelona (1.6 million inhabitants), is higher than the rest of the metropolitan area (1.6 million inhabitants).
This fact highlights the usefulness of surveys on income and living conditions conducted on a metropolitan scale.
31
1. Introduction and objectives
It is possible to identify win-win policies capable of delivering growth while reducing inequalities. Economic growth can be inclusive, while crisis is regressive.
The crucial factor to reduce inequality is to increase the level of employment.
Therefore, urban economic growth policies should be designed from the metropolis to the metropolis to achieve inclusive growth. In this sense, urban and metropolitan economic policy matters.
Promote network strategies between cities and metropolis in each megaregion based on innovation policies
4. Conclusions
Thank you for your attention
Joan Trullén Vice president of Strategic Planning Area Metropolitana de Barcelona
Contact: tel. 00 34 93 506 95 22Email: [email protected]
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