TECHNICAL TREND ( NIFTY - BANK NIFTY FUTURES )
NIFTY FIFTY : - The Equity benchmark Index Nifty opened on a flat basis on Monday up by 4 points at 8943
levels. Last week the Benchmark Index Nifty closed at 8940 after making high of 8982 the Index has given
breakout of its 5 month high of 8969. last week Nifty closed in positive territory by gaining 1.34%. Telecom
Sector has given a major movement last week. Indian Benchmark Index Nifty opened at 8944 and made a high
of 8952. Profit booking in the last hour of trading led Benchmark index to make a low of 8889 and fillanlly
closed at 8897 which is 43 points down from its previous day close. GDP Quarterly (Y-O-Y) for Q3 reported on
28th Feb 2017 IST showed a considerable difference in the street estimates of 6.4% v/s the actual GDP Growth
reported 7.0%. The Nifty traded strong throughout the day and have closed at its highest level in six months. On
the Global market Trump’s speech just concluded has nothing new, which market does not know and USD bond
yields & Global market seems to be not convinced about lack of any specific details. But Trump also called for a
$ 1 trillion infrastructure fund approval from US congress in PPP mode and that somehow supported the market
sentiment right now. On Friday trading session the index Nifty opened near its recent high of 8982 and made a
high of 8992. Market showed weakness despite good strong global market scenario. Nifty Index fell 46 points
and closed at 8897. Nifty is still below 8900 levels and traders can still continue short until Nifty closes above
8968 levels. Market would continue to see huge volatility until UP Election outcome. initiate long positions only
if Nifty closes above 8962 levels and until then hold short. The Crucial levels for Nifty is 8940-9030 is Up side
and 8840-8750 is down side.
BANK NIFTY : - The Indian Baking index Bank Nifty opened in a Negative note down by 79 points or 0.42
per cent at 18616. The Reserve Bank has directed banks to keep record of new bank notes in view of seizures by
Income Tax Department and other law enforcement agencies of large quantities of high denomination notes. It
has been felt necessary to put in place an appropriate reporting system to keep track of issuance of these bank
notes by the currency chests. Nifty Bank is still in positive zone. Bank Nifty would enter into negative zone once
it closes below 18255 levels. Market may see some short covering but for now, Bank Nifty looks weak and
traders can go short at every positive rally in the Market. Bank Nifty would soon enter into negative zone once it
closes below 18255 levels and we could see some sharp downfall in the market in days to come. The Bank Nifty
is expected to trade in bullish trend for next trading week. The Significance Levels for Bank Nifty is
18833-19759 is Upside and 17907-16981 is down side.
Monday, 06 March 2017
TECHNICAL VIEW (NIFTY- BANK NIFTY FUTURES )
NIFTY
DAILY R2 R1 PP S1 S2
9029 8935 8888 8841 8747
WEEKLY R2 R1 PP S1 S2
9312 9048 9616 8784 8520
MONTHLY R2 R1 PP S1 S2
9312 9048 9616 8784 8520
BANK NIFTY
DAILY R2 R1 PP S1 S2
20970 20656 20499 20342 20028
WEEKLY R2 R1 PP S1 S2
22053 21089 20607 20125 19161
MONTHLY R2 R1 PP S1 S2
22040 21084 20606 20128 19172
MOVING AVERAGE 21 DAYS 50 DAYS 100 DAYS 200 DAYS
NIFTY 8761 8632 8516 8394
BANK NIFTY 20343 19769 19342 18804
PARABOLIC SAR DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
NIFTY 8832 8326 8209
BANK NIFTY 21003 18645 17458
PATTERN FORMATION ( NIFTY )
Detail of Chart - On the Above Given daily Chart of Nifty has Applied the Bollinger Band As
well as Parabolic SAR and the price action of the rise from lows has so far been within the middle
Band. Entire technical indicators are trading into the heavy overbought phase by steady boom
found in short to medium terms given that, Index can show Strong Profitable selling in next time
so that, traders and investors should book profit who have made boom pro trade from the below
price, On Daily chart Nifty is seen very strong. Hence a large correction cannot be anticipated at
this point in time. Check the daily chart above. This chart suggests that the Nifty can break its
previous at any point to close at all time high. 8840-8800 would be Significance Support for the
Nifty and 9060-9180 will be key Resistance for Index.
PATTERN FORMATION ( BANK NIFTY )
Detail of Chart -On the Above given daily Chart of Bank Nifty has Applied the Bollinger Band.
The Bank Nifty has been trading between Upper and Middle band of 20720-20615 Levels. If the
correction happens, We feel that the correction may not be substantially large. It will be an
opportunity to enter at lower levels. So instead of entering your positions at this level, you can wait
for markets to give you better levels. On daily chart a near support is immerged near 20560-20400
& Resistance is 20778-20975 Levels.
NSE EQUITY DAILY LEVELS
COMPANY NAME R2 R1 PP S1 S2ACC EQ 1425 1408 1399 1382 1373
ADANI PORTS EQ 300 298 294 292 288
AMBUJACEM EQ 228 232 226 222 220
ASIAN PAINT EQ 1037 1026 1016 1005 995
AXISBANK EQ 520 516 511 507 502
BAJAJ-AUTO EQ 2857 2843 2825 2811 2793
BANKBARODA EQ 163 161 160 158 157
BPCL EQ 647 639 627 619 607
BHEL EQ 162 160 157 155 152
BHARTIARTL EQ 364 360 356 352 348
BOSCH LTD EQ 21796 21463 21266 20933 20736
BHARTI INFRATEL EQ 319 313 303 297 287
CIPLA EQ 600 594 589 583 578
COALINDIA EQ 325 323 321 319 317
CAIRN INDIA LTD EQ 299 296 293 290 287
DRREDDY EQ 2903 2884 2873 2854 2843
GAIL EQ 534 526 514 506 494
GRASIM EQ 1051 1036 1013 998 975
HCLTECH EQ 865 857 846 838 827
HDFC EQ 1408 1389 1377 1358 1346
HDFCBANK EQ 1391 1384 1376 1369 1361
HEROMOTOCO EQ 3338 3305 3253 3220 3168
HINDALCO EQ 206 202 194 190 182
HINDUNILVR EQ 885 882 876 873 867
ICICIBANK EQ 279 277 276 274 273
ITC EQ 266 264 261 259 256
INDUSIND BANK EQ 1318 1307 1297 1286 1276
INFY EQ 1056 1044 1022 1010 988
IDEA CELLULAR EQ 113 111 110 108 107
KOTAKBANK EQ 825 819 811 805 797
LT EQ 1487 1479 1469 1461 1451
M&M EQ 1340 1331 1322 1313 1304
MRF EQ 53164 52782 52247 51865 51330
MARUTI SUZUKI EQ 5951 5922 5898 5869 5845
ONGC EQ 194 194 192 192 190
NTPC EQ 159 158 156 155 153
RCOM EQ 38 37 36 35 34
RELCAPITAL EQ 543 537 528 522 513
RELIANCE EQ 1308 1283 1262 1237 1216
RELINFRA EQ 585 577 561 553 537
RPOWER EQ 47 46 45 44 43
SBIN EQ 270 267 266 263 262
SSLT( VEDL) EQ 275 271 268 264 261
SUNPHARMA EQ 699 692 682 675 665
TATA MOTORSDVR EQ 285 282 281 278 277
TCS EQ 2512 2501 2488 2477 2464
TATAMOTORS EQ 469 465 461 457 453
TATAPOWER EQ 83 82 81 80 79
TATASTEEL EQ 501 498 493 490 485
UNIONBANK EQ 147 146 144 143 141
YES BANK LIMITED EQ 1452 1443 1431 1422 1410
ZEEL EQ 512 508 500 496 488
TOP 15 ACHIEVERS // TOP 15 LOOSERS
SR.NO SCRIPT NAME PREV CLOSE CMP % CHANGE
1 BHARAT PETRO 717 632 - 11.82 %
2 IDEA CELLULAR 119 110 - 7.57 % -
73 NTPC 165 156 - 5.68 %
4 BOB 168 159 - 4.88 % -
45 POWER GRID CO 199 190 - 4.17 %
6 BOSCH LTD. 21,990 21158 - 3.78 % -
37 INDUSIND BANK 1340 1299 - 3.10 %
8 ACC LTD 1438 1393 - 3.09 % -
39 ICICI BANK 284 275 - 3.01 %
10 ZEEL 518 503 - 3.00 % -
311 AXIS BANK LTD. 528 512 - 2.89 %
12 AMBUJA CEM 232 225 - 2.84 % -
213 BHARTI AIRTEL 366 356 - 2.76 %
14 MARUTI SUZUKI 6031 5887 - 2.38 % -
2
15 SBIN 270 265 - 2.00 %
SR.NO SCRIPT NAME PREVCLOSE
CMP % CHANGE
1 HINDALCO 182 198 + 9.03 %
2 RELIANCE 1182 1258 + 6..41 %
3 BHARTI INFRA 297 307 + 3.36 %
4 BHEL 153 158 + 3.06 %
5 HERO MOTOCOR 3176 3272 + 3.03 %
6 INFOSYS 1008 1031 + 2.22 %
7 HUL 858 877 + 2.20 %
8 TATA STEEL 485 495 + 1.92 %
9 LUPIN LTD. 1450 1476 + 1.80 %
10 SUN PHARMA 674 686 + 1.76 %
11 WIPRO LTD 486 493 + 1.59 %
12 M&M LIMITED 1304 1322 + 1.32 %
13 AURO PHARMA 666 674 + 1.30 %
14 HCL TECH 842 852 + 1.19 %
15 BAJAJ AUTO 2814 2832 + 0.66 %
OPEN INTEREST INDEX F&O AND CASH SEGMENT ACTIVITY
NSE - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
✍ TOP NEWS OF THE WEEK
Enhanced budget allocation to infra will boost order inflow' - Enhanced budgetary
allocation of Rs 3.96 lakh crore to the infrastructure sector would boost order inflows and is
positive for companies in the segment, ratings agency Icra said today. "Budget focus on
infrastructure sees increase in allocation to most schemes; high execution targets is credit positive.
It said the Central government has retained its focus on infrastructure development by increasing
allocation towards the sector with focus on key segments like roads, railways, metro and irrigation.
"This, along with, promotion of affordable housing segment by granting the infrastructure status to
such projects, will help the construction sector in further enhancing order inflows," it said. It said
allocation of Rs 3.96 lakh crore to infrastructure sector in FY18, an increase of 13.5 per cent from
FY17 budgetary allocation, will have a positive impact on infrastructure and construction
companies. There is a significant increase in allocation towards Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojna ,
which was enhanced 45 per cent, it said.
India's forex reserves remain flat for the last week of February - India's foreign
exchange reserves rose marginally by $ 63.7 million to reach $ 362.8 billion as on February 24
said the Reserve Bank of India today. According to data released by the central bank, banks have
also shown a mere 4.8% rise in credit for the year 2017 against last year, therefore the entire credit
forwarded by the banking sector stood at Rs 3.4 lakh crore as against Rs 7.2 lakh crore last year. At
the same time deposits have shown a growth of around 12.8% against 10.4% that was seen last
year, standing at Rs 11.8 lakh crore against Rs 8.7 lakh crore last year. According to data from
NSDL the amount of money put in by foreign investors in the Indian markets for the month of
March stood at Rs 12967 crore till the first week of March.
Auto asset-backed loans stabilise in January: Moody's - Moody's Investors Service
today said the performance of auto asset-backed securities levelled off in January after
deterioration due to the currency crunch post demonetisation. The performance of rated Indian auto
asset-backed securities is not expected to deteriorate beyond March 2017 as the economy recovers
and oil prices remain range-bound and budget policy initiatives provide support, Moody's said in a
statement. The signs of stabilisation appeared in January 2017, with collection efficiency rising
half a percentage point to 93 per cent from December 2016, but was still 1.9 percentage points
lower than the average in the three months to October 2016, it said. "In January 2017, all
transactions collected more funds than the amount they needed to pay interest and principal to
investors. Signs of stabilisation appeared in January 2017," Moody's said.
States' fiscal deficit will rise to 3.3% in 2017-18: India Ratings - Even as the centre
has managed to contain its fiscal deficit, state governments still remain profligate. A report by
ratings firm India Ratings and Research estimates that aggregate fiscal deficit of Indian states will
increase marginally to 3.3% of gross domestic product in FY’18 from its forecast of 3.2% for
FY;17. It expects states’ debt/GDP ratio may increase marginally to 24.3% in FY’18 from 24%
forecasted for FY’17. The central government is evaluating the report of the N. K. Singh panel on
Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management, which allows the fiscal deficit of the central
government to be increased by 0.5% of GDP. Ind-Ra believes that once the report is accepted,
states would also make suitable changes in the fiscal deficit targets specified under their Fiscal
Responsibility and Budget Management Acts. Net market borrowings of states is expected to
increase to Rs 3.7lakh crore in FY’18 from its forecast of Rs 3.5lakh crore for FY’17. However, as
a percentage of GDP, states’ net market borrowings is likely to moderate to 2.2% in FY’18 from its
forecast of 2.3% for FY’17.
Services rebound after four months, PMI rises to 50.3 in February - India’s
services activity bounced back into expansion mode for the first time in four months in February, a
private business survey showed on Friday, providing further evidence that the effects of
demonetisation may be fading. The Nikkei/IHS Markit Services Purchasing Managers’ Index rose
to 50.3 in February from 48.7 in January, marginally above the 50-mark that separates growth from
contraction. The PMI manufacturing survey released on Wednesday had showed a similar
recovery. Having contracted for three months in a row, incoming new business also picked up in
February. However, as was the case for output, the pace of growth in new work was marginal
overall,” the survey report said. Government data released earlier this week showed the economy
grew 7% in the demonetisation-hit October-December quarter, much higher than expectations, and
is on course to clock 7.1% growth in FY17.
Liability linkage provision in GST to hit small traders - A provision in the model
goods and services tax law to ensure the smooth flow of credit and minimise tax evasion could hit
small businesses and suppliers by favouring bigger and financially stronger ones. The 'liability
linkage provision' allows the buyer credit for tax paid on inputs used only if the supplier has paid
the tax within a given window. The provision, to be discussed at the meeting of the GST Council
on March 4-5, calls for reversal of credit to the buyer in case of noncompliance by the vendor. That
is, a buyer would be penalised for the supplier's non-compliance. "This seems unfair as it penalises
the buyer for someone else's fault," said Pratik Jain, indirect tax leader, PwC.
Bank consolidation takes backseat on rising NPAs - Mounting Non-performing assets
have pushed the government's plan for consolidation of public sector banks on the back burner
after it managed to get State Bank of India to take charge of its five subsidiaries. The government
is also going slow on stake sale in IDBI Bank, where it had even discussed the possibility of
reducing it to below 50%. The bank is grappling with bad debt and has been asked to accelerate
plans for sale of non-core businesses, including life insurance, Sidbi and NSE shares, through
which it hopes to raise Rs 5,000-6,000 crore.
✍ TOP ECONOMY NEWS
The Indian Railways is working towards protecting its freight market as it has been losing share to
the road transport. The railways have set a revenue target of Rs 1.89 lakh crore for FY18, of which
Rs 1.18 lakh crore would come from the freight segment.
Under the Ujjwal DISCOM Assurance Yojana scheme, the government of Telangana is all set to
auction bonds amounting Rs. 89.23 billion. For this purpose, the Telangana government has invited
bids from various merchant bankers, as per the RBI announcement on Monday.
The Nikkei India Services purchasing managers index increased to 50.3 in February, as against
48.7 in the month of January. The index signalled growth in February, as businesses recovered
from the demonetisation-related disruptions, seen in each of the previous three months.
The government is expected to ease the Foreign Direct Investment norms in the single brand retail.
According to officials, the FDI norms are further eased to provide better business environment by
removing barriers. Last year, the government liberalised various sectors including civil aviation,
construction & development, private security agencies, etc.
Foreign Exchange Earnings during the month of January 2017 were Rs.16,097 crore as compared
to Rs 13,669 crore in January 2016 and Rs 12,100 crore in January 2015. The growth rate in FEEs
in rupee terms during January 2017 over January 2016 was 17.8% as compared to the growth of
13.0% in January 2016 over January 2015.
The Nikkei India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index, or PMI, increased to 50.7 in the
month of February, as against 50.4 in the month of January. A reading above 50 indicates economic
expansion, while one below 50, points toward contraction. The numbers show that the
manufacturing sector has grown with a healthy rate after the shock of demonetisation in November
2016, as a rebound in export demand contributed to a stronger expansion of the total orders.
The Controller General of Accounts, Archana Nigam released a report indicating a rise in Indian
government’s tax collection. The numbers show that the tax collections increased by 11.8% on
Y-o-Y basis to Rs. 1.056 trillion. The rise in net tax collections is mainly contributed by the
increase in excise collections. The excise tax collection stood at 36.6% on Y-o-Y basis at Rs. 320
billion in the month of January.
The Q3 data as put out by Central Statistics Office comes as a positive surprise as market experts
expected the growth to be closer to 6.3%. The Q3 GDP growth for the October-December quarter
came out to be 7% while CSO projected that the economy is likely to grow by 7.1% in 2016-17.
The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development has cut the Indian growth forecast
to 7% for 2016-17, today. Last year, it had projected the growth rate of the country at 7.4% for
2016-17. On the other hand, all eyes will be on Q3FY17's GDP numbers which are going to be out
later in the day.
The Asian Development Bank and the Government of India signed here $ 375 million in loans and
grants to develop 800-kilometer Visakhapatnam -Chennai Industrial Corridor, which is the First
Phase of a planned 2,500–kilometer long East Coast Economic Corridor.
Dubai International Financial Centre, the leading financial hub in the $7.4 trillion Middle East,
Africa and South Asia region has signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Gujarat
International Finance Tec-City in an effort to encourage further cooperation and collaboration
between the financial centres.
In its 7th meeting on the February 11, 2017 VCIC examined requests from 11 fund managers and
cleared for sanction requests from 9 Funds aggregating Rs. 300 crores. It is evident that there is a
significant upsurge in the fund of funds operations if seen from the number of funds supported by
SIDBI during the current FY. During FY 15 and 16 sanctions were made to 11 funds (Rs. 314
crores) and 16 funds (Rs. 607 crores) respectively while the number during the current FY has
already crossed Rs. 1112 crores to 30 funds.
Foreign direct investment inflow in India grew to a whopping 18% amounting to $ 46 billion as
announced by Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion. Whereas India received FDI of
USD 39.32 billion in 2015. Majority of the FDI came in from Singapore, Mauritius, Netherlands &
Japan. As per Union Budget 2017-18, the Finance Minister will be further easing foreign
investment norms and will also be phasing out the Foreign Investment Promotion Board.
✍ TOP CORPORATE NEWS -
Vodafone India and Idea Cellular, India’s No 2 and No 3 telecom operators, have come up with
new plans with daily data benefit and free unlimited voice calls for their prepaid customers. The
new plans could be seen as a step aimed at countering Reliance Jio’s data-rich prime offers that
will be applicable for the Mukesh Ambani-led telco’s customers starting April 1, 2017.
Bharti Airtel Limited and Millicom International Cellular have entered into an agreement to
merge their respective units in Ghana to create the second-largest mobile carrier in the African
country. Under the terms of the agreement, “Airtel and Millicom will have equal ownership and
governance rights in the combined entity,” both companies said in a joint statement on Friday.
Wipro Limited, India's third largest software exporter, today said it has completed the $ 70
million sale of its EcoEnergy division. In November last year, the Bengaluru-based company had
said it will sell its EcoEnergy division to Chubb Alba Control Systems for $70 million in order to
sharpen focus on core IT business.
Vijay Mallya, the embattled businessman said faulty engines were one of the factors for the
collapse of Kingfisher Airlines. A group firm of Pratt & Whitney has been sued for supplying
defective engines to Kingfisher Airlines, Mallya said amid aviation regulator DGCA ordering
detailed inspection of P&W engines powering some Airbus 320 neo planes being operated in India.
Defence sector will be the largest business area for Reliance Infra in the next few years, its
chairman Anil Ambani has said, seeing opportunities worth Rs 1 lakh crore per annum in
acquisitions for the armed forces. Ambani said the Group's focus will be to become a leading
manufacturer and supplier of advanced weapon platforms and military hardware to meet the
requirements of the Navy, Indian Air Force and the Army and also mark the company's presence
across the world.
After two long years of dispute, Tata Sons and NTT Docomo Inc. have finally seem to have
reached a common ground to settle the issue. Tata Sons Ltd has agreed to pay Japan's NTT
DoCoMo about $ 1.17 billion in connection with the termination of a joint venture in the country,
according to reports. The two companies have made a joint application in the Delhi High Court to
resolve the matter. The case will be heard on 8 March.
The country's largest two-wheeler maker Hero MotoCorp on Wednesday reported a 4.75 per
cent decline in total sales at 5,24,766 units in February. The company had sold 5,50,992 units in
February 2016, Hero MotoCorp said in a statement.
Larsen and Toubro Hydrocarbon Engineering on Tuesday said it has signed a 5-year
framework agreement with Shell for engineering, procurement and construction management
services.
TVS Motor Company has posted a decline of 3.6 per cent in sales at 211,470 units in the month
of February 2017 as against 219,467 units in the same month last year.
With refinancing of infrastructure projects gathering steam, L&T Infra Debt Fund , a
refinancing unit, is raising about Rs 2,500 crore through debentures to provide liquidity for road
and renewable energy projects.
Auto major Mahindra & Mahindra Limited on Wednesday reported 2.92 per cent decline in
total sales at 42,714 units in February. The company had sold 44,002 units in the same month last
year, M&M statement said.
Singaporean sovereign fund GIC and US-based private equity giant Blackstone were
neck-and-neck for acquiring DLF Limited promoters’ 40% stake in their rental arm DLF Cybercity
Developers . The realty major on Wednesday said it has entered into a exclusive agreement with
GIC to sell the stake.it is expected to be to the tune of Rs. 12,000 crore. Bid amount not
withstanding, several factors tilted the scale in favour of GIC, say a top company executive and
analysts.
Adani Power Limited, part of the Adani Group, saw a 330 megawatt unit 4 at its 4620 MW
Mundra thermal power plant run continuously for record 600 days, generating 4142.56 million
units of electricity.
The government has bailed out state-owned oil producers Oil and Natural Gas Corporation
and Oil India from a potential liability of about Rs. 22,000 crore in royalty dues to states like
Gujarat and Assam.
Tata Consultancy Services Limited , which plans to buy back shares worth up to 160 billion
rupees $ 2.39 billion, said on Wednesday the founder group of the company intended to participate
in the proposed buyback.
✍ TOP BANKING AND FINANCIAL NEWS OF THE WEEK
Banks seeking incentive from RBI to clean bad loan is not only an atrocious idea but also against
the basic ethos of banking. Just as lending and mobilising deposits have been the core functions of
banks, recovery of loans from borrowers is equally significant. In fact, in absences of demand for
loans and easy flow of money to banks as deposits recovery of dud loans has emerged as the core
activity for a number of banks.
The government has instructed banks to link all savings accounts with mobile and Aadhaar
numbers by March 31, 2017, and enable mobile banking for such customers.
Growth in bank loans, a bellwether for economic activities, has fallen to below 5%, raising doubts
over quicker recovery in factory output. Reserve Bank of India data showed that bank loans for the
fortnight ending February 17 grew by 4.8% year-on-year to Rs. 75 lakh crore, compared to 11.2%
rise in the year ago period. This is the slowest fortnightly loan growth recorded since 2006.
The State Bank of India is expanding operations in India's immediate neighbourhood, its
Chairman and Managing Director Arundhati Bhattacharya said. We are doing it within the
immediate neighbourhood of India. We have just opened a new branch in Myanmar and we
upgraded our branch in Seoul," Bhattacharya said here, responding to reporters' question on the
bank's expansion plans.
Public sector Indian Bank has revised its interest rates in foreign currency non-resident term
deposits with immediate effect. For FCNR(B) deposits, in USD terms, the revised interest rate was
fixed at 2.33 per cent for deposits of one year and above, but less than two years, from the existing
2.26 per cent, a bank statement said.
As part of capital raising exercise, the Finance Ministry has advised state-owned banks to prepare
a list of their non-core assets and look at disposing them at opportune time. They have been asked
to move forward on the idea based on deliberations at the Gyan Sangam last year, sources said.
Some of the banks have started the process while others are gearing up, the sources said, adding
that the move will not only help them raise the much needed capital for growth but also sharpen
their focus on the core business.
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