© OECD/IEA, 2016
Energy Technology Perspectives for the Iron and Steel Industry
COP22 Side Event: How to get to a low carbon future:
Solutions for the global steel industry
Eric Masanet, PhD
Energy Technology Policy Division
International Energy Agency
© OECD/IEA, 2016
Sizing the scale of the challenge… … and its solutions
The carbon intensity of the global economy can be cut by two-thirds through a diversified energy technology mix
Contribution of technology area to global cumulative CO2 reductions
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2013 2020 2030 2040 2050
GtC
O2
Renewables 32%
Energy efficiency 32%
Fuel switching 10%
Nuclear 11%
CCS 15%2DS
4DS
© OECD/IEA, 2016
The industrial sector accounts for 23% of cumulative CO2 reductions
© OECD/IEA, 2016
But the challenge increases to get from 2 degrees to “well below” 2 degrees
© OECD/IEA, 2016
Energy- and process-related CO2 emissions by sector in the 2DS
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2013 2020 2030 2040 2050
GtC
O2
Agriculture 2%
Buildings 8%
Industry 33%
Transport 24%
Other transformation 4%
Power 29%
Industry and transport account for 75% of the remaining emissions in the 2DS in 2050.
© OECD/IEA, 2016
How important is industrial CCS?
© OECD/IEA, 2016
Chemicals, iron and steel, and cement account for 28% of cumulative CO2 emissions captured in the 2DS
Sources of CO2 emissions captured in the 2DS
© OECD/IEA, 2016
Tracking Clean Energy Progress
© OECD/IEA, 2016
Clean energy deployment falls short of the 2DS opportunity
but recent progress in certain technologies is promising
Other renewable power
Buildings
Nuclear
Transport
Appliances and lighting
Energy storage
Industry
Biofuels
Carbon capture and storage
More efficient coal-fired power
Electric vehicles
Solar PV and onshore wind
Technology Status today against 2DS targets
●Not on track ●Accelerated improvement needed ●On track
© OECD/IEA, 2016
Progress with iron and steel CO2 capture
Actual and expected operations dates for projects in operation, construction, and advanced planning
Source: Global CCS Institute
© OECD/IEA, 2016
Direct industrial CO2 emissions and final energy reductions in the 2DS compared with the 6DS
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2013 2020 2030 2040 2050
GtC
O2
CO2 emissions
Cement Iron and steel Pulp and paper
Aluminium Chemicals and petrochemicals Other industries
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2013 2020 2030 2040 2050E
J
Final energy
Large reductions in direct CO2 emissions are possible,
but energy use and emissions must be decoupled
The path forward for industry?
© OECD/IEA, 2016
While continued efficiency gains are needed …
© OECD/IEA, 2016
Energy efficiency continues to deliver, but is limited by current technology and scrap availability
Iron and steel aggregated energy intensity
Note: Aggregate energy intensity includes final energy consumption in blast furnaces and coke ovens, as well as the portion of fuel consumption related to thermal energy generation of captive utilities for internal use. Source: Derived from IEA Energy Balances.
© OECD/IEA, 2016
Globally, 6% of the final energy use in iron and steel making could be technically recovered
… expanding spatial boundaries may achieve greater energy savings …
NOTE: Only medium and high temperature IEH sources (>100 degC) and commercial recovery technologies included. SOURCE: Energy Technology Perspectives 2016
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
BOF off-gasrecovery
EAF off-gas thermalrecovery
CDQ
GJ/
t cr
ud
e st
eel
EJ
China India Other Asia Africa and Middle East Non-OECD Latin America Other non-OECD OECD Specific EH recovery potential
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.00
0.04
0.08
0.12
0.16
Sinter cooler exhaustthermal recovery
GJ/
t cr
ud
e st
eel
EJ
Global excess heat recovery technical potential – Iron and steel
© OECD/IEA, 2016
… and more innovative low-carbon technology options are needed.
© OECD/IEA, 2016
Low-carbon iron and steel technology RD&D is promising, but progress must be accelerated
Note: This slide is not intended to provide an exhaustive list. Sketch is not at scale and time milestones are just illustrative.
© OECD/IEA, 2016
Urban transport investments
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
4DS 2DS
2015 2050
USD
tri
llio
n
Internal combustion engine
Electrified
Parking and road
Metro and light rail
Infrastructure
Vehicles
In the 2DS, by 2050 one billion cars are electric vehicles
while public transport travel activity more than doubles
Rethinking materials demand
© OECD/IEA, 2016
32 global publications, 21 different technology areas
Re-endorsed at G7 Energy Ministerial Meeting in May 2016 (Kitakyushu)
New Cycle for Implementation: Near-term actions Regional Relevance Key partnerships (e.g. Finance) Metrics and Tracking
Technology Roadmapping: Bringing stakeholders together
© OECD/IEA, 2016
Low-Carbon Technology Roadmaps
2009 2011 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015
© OECD/IEA, 2016
23% 28%
11%
3%
1%
4% 2% 5%
4%
1% 1%
2%
15%
Final industrial energy use , 2014 (154 EJ) Iron and steel
Chemical and petrochemical
Non-metallic minerals
Non-ferrous metals
Transport equipment
Machinery
Mining and quarrying
Food and tobacco
Paper, pulp and print
Wood and wood products
Construction
Textile and leather
Non-specified (industry)
Global, 2009
SOURCE: IEA Energy Balance. Note: Iron & Steel includes blast furnaces and coke ovens. Chemicals & Petrochemicals includes petrochemicals feedstocks.
Global, 2013
Regional, 2013
CEMENT
CHEMICALS
IRON & STEEL
Workshop 2Q2017?
A global iron and steel industry roadmap?
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