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MiddleEastNorthAfricaSustainableElectricityTrajectories
EnergyPathwaysforSustainableDevelopmentintheMENARegion
Summaryofworkshopresults:Scenariodevelopmentandmulti-criteriaanalysisforMorocco’sfutureelectricitysystemin2050
Authors
MarinaBerg(Europa-UniversitätFlensburg)SönkeBohm(Europa-UniversitätFlensburg)ThomasFink(WuppertalInstitute)MurielHauser(WuppertalInstitute)NadejdaKomendantova(InternationalInstituteforAppliedSystemsAnalysis)OleSoukup(WuppertalInstitute)
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Theenergyandenvironmentalmanagement(EEM)departmentatEuropa-UniversitätFlensburghastwocorefieldsofresearchactivityaimingatasustainabledevelopmentofenergysystems:thedevelopmentoflocalandregionalclimateprotectionschemesandtheanalysisanddevelopmentofenergysystemsgoing100%renewable.EEMispartoftheinterdisciplinarycross-universityCentreforSustainableEnergySystems(ZNES).
InternationalInstituteforAppliedSystemsAnalysis(IIASA)conductspolicy-orientedresearch,basedonintegratedsystemsanalysisofnatural,technologyandinfrastructureandhumanandsocialsystemstodevelopsolutionsforsustainabilitytransformations.TheGovernanceinTransitionresearchthemewithintheRiskandResilienceprogramanalyzeshowgovernancestructuresshapedecisionsandsubsequentoutcomesbybuildingonandcontributingtoresearchondecision-makingprocesses,publicacceptance,riskperception,cognitivebiases,andculturalperspectives,aswellasparticipatorygovernancedesign.
TheWuppertalInstituteundertakesresearchanddevelopsmodels,strategiesandinstrumentsfortransitionstoasustainabledevelopmentatlocal,nationalandinternationallevel.SustainabilityresearchattheWuppertalInstitutefocusesontheresources,climateandenergyrelatedchallengesandtheirrelationtoeconomyandsociety.Theresearchgroup“FutureEnergyandMobilityStructures”involvedinthisprojectisworkingonthesequestionsfromatechnicalandsystemsanalyticalpointofview.
Projectpartners
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SUMMARYInthescopeoftheMENASELECTresearchproject,aworkshopwasconductedinRabat,Morocco,from23to24May2016.Duringtheworkshop,stakeholdersfromdifferentnationalsocietalgroupsdiscussedanddevelopedfuturesettingsofMorocco’spowersupplywiththehelpofanadvancedspreadsheetmodel,accompaniedbyanevaluationofthedevelopedscenarios.Inthispaper,theresultsoftheworkshoparesummarized.
Inthefirstpartoftheworkshop,theparticipantswereintroducedtothemodelingapproach.Centralinputparameters,proceduresandassumptionswerepresented.ThisformedthebasisforthesubsequentdevelopmentofscenariosonMorocco’spowersupplyuntil2050.Withthehelpofthespreadsheetmodel,fourconsistentscenariosweredeveloped,reachingrenewableenergysharesrangingfromapproximately60to100percent.
Inthesecondpartoftheworkshop,theworkshopparticipantsweightedthedevelopedscenarios.Forthispurposeamulti-criteriaanalysiswasconducted,whichincludedquantitativeandqualitativecriteriaforfossilfuelsandrenewableenergytechnologies.Theparticipantsweightedtheselectedcriteriaagainsteachotheraccordingtothepreferencesoftherespectiveinstitutionstheyrepresented.Incombinationwiththecriteriaperformanceforeachtechnologyarankingofthedevelopedelectricityscenariostookplaceresultinginthefactthattheworkshopparticipantswouldacceptthescenariowiththehighestshareofrenewableenergiesin2050most.
TheworkshopsuccessfullyillustratedthatitwaspossibletodevelopoptionsofMorocco’sfuturepowersupplybycombiningtechnicalandeconomicparametersthatwereacceptabletotheworkshopparticipants.
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CONTENTS
1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................................................71.1 TheMENASELECTresearchproject.....................................................................................................71.2 Workshopobjectives....................................................................................................................................81.3 Workshopparticipants................................................................................................................................82 Modellingelectricitysystems.......................................................................................................................92.1 Fundamentalsofmodelling.......................................................................................................................92.2 Inputandoutputparameters................................................................................................................112.3 ScenariosofMorocco’selectricityfuturein2050........................................................................123 Multi-criteriaanalysis..................................................................................................................................153.1 Background ................................................................................................................................................153.2 Stakeholdergroupidentificationandweightingprocess.........................................................153.3 Discussionandresultsoftheweightingprocesses......................................................................163.4 Findingaconsensus...................................................................................................................................173.5 Rankingofthescenarios..........................................................................................................................183.6 Conclusion ................................................................................................................................................194 Resultsofworkshopdiscussions.............................................................................................................195 Conclusion&Recommendations.............................................................................................................216 Nextsteps ....................................................................................................................................................227 Sources ....................................................................................................................................................238 Annex ....................................................................................................................................................24
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ABREVIATIONS
AHP AnalyticalhierarchyprocessCAPEX CapitalexpendituresCO2 CarbondioxideCSP Concentratedsolarpowercts MoroccanDirhamcentsEUF Europa-UniversitätFlensburgIIASA InternationalInstituteofAppliedSystemsAnalysisLCOE LevelizedcostofelectricityMCA Multi-criteriaanalysisMENA MiddleEastandNorthAfricaMENARES MENARenewablesandSustainabilityNGO Non-governmentalorganizationO&M OperationandmaintenanceOPEX OperationalexpendituresPV PhotovoltaicsRENPASS RenewableEnergyPathwaySimulationSystemRES RenewableenergysourcesSTEP Pumped-storagehydroelectricity(StationdeTransfer
d’ÉnergieparPompage,pompage-turbinage)WACC WeightedaveragecostofcapitalWI WuppertalInstitutWP Workingpackages
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1 Introduction1.1 TheMENASELECTresearchproject
TheMiddleEastandNorthAfricanregion(MENA)currentlyfacesanumberofchallenges,suchasgrowingelectricitydemand,depletingfossilfuelresourcesandgeopoliticalrisksaswellasavolatilityofenergyprices.Severaloptionsexisttosatisfythegrowingelectricitydemand,includingscalinguprenewableenergysources(RES),fossilfuels(coal,gasandoil)andnuclearpower.Large-scaledeploymentofanyoftheseoptionscanleadtoatransitionoftheenergysystemand,consequently,toasocietaltransformation.Involvingprinciplesofdemocraticgovernanceinthisprocesswouldallowtoaddressrisksofconflictingopinionsandviewsamongstakeholdersoftheprocess.Despiteexistingscientificevidenceabouttechnicalandeconomiccapacitiesandcapabilitiesforsuchtransitionsoftheenergysystemandofsociety,theknowledgeabouthumanfactorsinfluencingtheseprocessesiscomparablysmallatlargeandalmostnon-existentfortheMENAregion.TheMENASELECTresearchprojectaddressestheperceptionsandviewsofdifferentstakeholdergroupsaboutthebenefitsandcostsofdifferentelectricitypathways,whichwillallowthesustainabledevelopmentofcommonsolutionsforthefuture.Thecombinationofquantitativeandqualitativemethodsofanalysis,includingthedevelopmentandimplementationofmodellingtoolssuchasscenariomodelling,amulti-criteriaanalysisaswellasthestakeholders’viewsgoesfarbeyondtraditionalmethodsofstakeholderinvolvement.Thisworkactivelyinvolvesthestakeholdersinframesofso-calledparticipatorymodelling,allowingextensiveinclusionofthestakeholders’feedback.TheMENASELECTprojectisfinancedbytheGermanFederalMinistryofEconomicCooperationandDevelopment.TheprojectconsortiumconsistsoftheBonnInternationalCenterforConversion(BICC),Europa-UniversityFlensburg(EUF),Germanwatch,InternationalInstituteforAppliedSystemsAnalysis(IIASA)andWuppertalInstitute(WI).Theprojecthasbeensubdividedintofourworkpackages(WP)thatareledbythedifferentprojectpartners:
/ WP1(IIASAandEUF)dealswiththetechno–economicmodellingofdifferentelectricitypathwaysupto2050basedonparticipatoryworkshopswithnationalstakeholders.
/ WP2(Germanwatch,IIASAandBICC)analysesthesocial,political,economicandecologicaleffectsofdifferenttechnologiestogetherwithlocalstakeholders.
/ WP3(WI)combinestheresultsofbothWP1and2toevaluatethedevelopedscenariosbasedonpredefinedcriteriawithhelpofamulti-criteriaanalysis.
/ WP4includesthedisseminationofresultsbyallprojectpartners.
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1.2 Workshopobjectives
ToinvolvelocalstakeholdersintheworkoftheMENASELECTresearchproject,theresearchteamconductedaworkshopwithrepresentativesfromdifferentsocietalgroups.Theworkshop“ElaborationetévaluationdesdifférentsscénariosdumixélectriquefuturduMaroc”tookplaceattheLaTourHassanhotelinRabat,Morocco,on23and24May2016.ItwasorganizedjointlybyEUF,IIASAandWIaswellasbythelocalpartnerMENARES.
Theresearchprojectconsistsofseveralworkpackages(WPs).Theworkshopcoveredquestionsaddressingtwoofthem.ItsaimswerethecommondevelopmentofconsistentscenariosofMorocco’spowerfuture(WP1oftheproject)andanassessmentofthesescenarios(WP3).Duringthefirstdayoftheworkshop,theworkshopparticipantsdevelopedconsistentscenariosofMorocco’sfuturepowersystemupto2050.Onthesecondday,thestakeholdersweightedcriteriadescribingdifferentimpactsofthepowersystemandrankedscenariosaccordingtotheirpreferences.
Theworkshopwasalsointendedtoactasaplatformforknowledgetransfer,anexchangeofideasanddiscussionsbetweenthedifferentstakeholdergroups.Theworkshopbenefitedfromintenseandprofounddiscussionsontechnical,economicandsocialaspectsofdifferentscenariosettings.
EUF,IIASAandWIaredeeplygratefultoProfessorDrissZejli,ProfessorTouriaBarradiandDrMostafaJameafromMENARESforalltheircontributionstotheorganizationoftheworkshopaswellasfortheirenthusiasminconductingtheworkshopandalltheireffortsleadingtoasuccessfulperformanceoftheresearchtasks.MENARESisaresearchinstitutionlocatedinCasablanca,whichhasstrongexpertiseintheareaofgreeneconomy,climatechangeandsustainability
1.3 Workshopparticipants
Theworkshopwasattendedbyapproximately20participants(seephotograph)representingdifferentsectors.
WorkshopparticipantsandorganizersPhoto:SafaaElAlami
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Besidesrepresentativesfromacademiaandtheprivatesector,thefollowingparticipantsfromthepublicsector,NGOs,civilsocietyandyoungleaderstookpartintheworkshop.
\ Publicsector:• MEMEE(Ministèredel’Energie,desMines,del’Eauetde
l’Environnnement)• ONEE(OfficeNationaldel'Electricitéetdel'EauPotable)• AdminstrationoftheSousMassaregion
\ Academia:• UniversitéChouaibDoukkali,FacultédesSciencesElJadida• UniversitéIbnZohr,FacultédesSciencesAgadir• ENSAKénitra(EcoleNationaledesScienceAppliquéesKénitra)• ENSRabat(EcoleNormaleSupérieureRabat)
\ Privatesector:• SociétéEuroSolMaroc• SMAEE(SociétéMarocained’AuditEfficacitéEnergétique)• ClusterSolaire• INJAZAl-Maghrib• SaharaWind• Oussama• Uplinegroup• SuperCerame
\ Civilsociety:• AMADES-Morocco(MoroccanAssociationofSolidWaste)• AssociationFemmedBladi• ClubEnvironnement-AssociationRibatAlFath• AssociationActionCitoyenneetEcologique
2 Modellingelectricitysystems2.1 Fundamentalsofmodelling
ScenarioswithintheMENASELECTprojectcanbecalculatedwiththehelpoftheRENPASSmodeldevelopedbytheEuropa-UniversitätFlensburg.RENPASSisanopensourcemodelthatisfreelyavailableandusesopendata.Duringtheworkshop,asimplifiedspreadsheetmodelwasappliedthatincorporatedthemainfeaturesoftheRENPASSmodel.Withthis,mostrelevantinputparameterscouldeasilybeadjustedandresultswereobtainedinstantly.ThebasicstructureoftheRENPASSmodelandthespreadsheetmodelisillustratedinFigure1.
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Figure1BasicstructureoftheRENPASSmodel
Centralinputdatatothemodelincludemeteorologicaldatasuchassolarradiation,precipitationandwindspeedsinahightemporalandspatialresolution,technicalparametersofdifferenttypesofpowerplantsandthetransmissiongrid,financialparameterssuchascapitalandoperationalexpenditures.Themaindriverofthemodelistheelectricitydemand,representedbytheloadcurve.
ItwasassumedthatMorocco’s2050powerdemandshouldbecoveredwithdomesticgeneration,andpowertransmissionoptionswithneighbouringcountriesweredisregarded.Thisapproachensuredthedevelopmentofaconsistentsystem.Anyothersystemsettingincludingcross-bordertransmissioncapacitywouldalsowork.
Thefluctuatingelectricityproductionofwindandphotovoltaics(PV)isbasedonthemeteorologicalinputdata.Subtractingthisenergyproductionfromthehourlyloadresultsintheso-calledresidualload,Apositiveresidualloadrequiresadditionalpowergenerationfromothersources,anegativeresidualloadreflectssurplusenergyinthesystemthatneedstobehandled,forexamplestored.Inthemodelapproach,apositiveresidualloadcausesdispatchabletechnologiesinthesystemtooperate.Theirorderofutilizationisbasedonthemeritorder,whichmeansthetechnologywiththelowestmarginalcostsproducesfirst.Inthespreadsheetmodel,theorderofutilizationofdispatchabletechnologieswaspre-defined.
Basedontheutilizationofpowerplants,themodelcalculatesthesystemcostsperkWh,i.e.LCOEoftheindividualtechnologies,ofapotentialgridexpansionandofstorage.
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2.2 Inputandoutputparameters
Thefirstpartoftheworkshopmainlyfocussedonadjustingthecapacityneededfor2050toachieveaconsistentscenariowithaworkingsystem.Itwasalsopossibletoadjustseveralotherinputparametersinthemodel.Themodellinginputsintroducedduringtheworkshopcouldbegroupedintoloaddata,meteorologicaldata,technologydataandeconomicdata,accompaniedbyfurtherinputs,e.g.ontheregionalsplitintodefinedregions.Allinputparameterswerebasedonliteratureresearchandinsightsgainedduringtheworkshop.
Duringtheworkshop,themodelallowedparticipantstocalculatescenariosofMorocco’sfuturepowersupply.Inallcalculations,anhourlyresolutionofthetargetyear2050andthedevelopmentuntilthisyearincludingintermediateinstallationtargetsof2030weretakenintoaccount(cf.Schinkeetal.2016).
TheloadcurveappliedwasderivedfromONEE(2016)andpreparedforafullyear.Inthemodel,itwasscaledwiththeexpectedpowerdemandin2050andsplitintoregionaldemandaccordingtotheregionsizeandpopulationdensity.Duringtheworkshoptheparticipantsdiscussedpossiblefuturedevelopmentsoftheloaduntil2050andtheirrespectivedrivers.Forthecalculations,itwasagreedtoassumeanannualpowerdemandof173TWhin2050(cf.Triebetal.2015).Thiscorrespondstoafive-foldincreaseofMorocco’spowerdemandof2014,basedonanassumedsteadygrowthwithoutasaturationeffectbefore2050.
Inthemodel,relevantenergytechnologies,i.e.renewableandconventionalgeneration,storageoptionsandthetransmissiongrid,withtheirtechnicalandeconomiccharacteristicsandtheiroperationalbehaviourweretakenintoaccount.Thedispatchabletechnologiesweredefinedwiththeirinstalledcapacity,theirrampingdurationandminimumdowntimes.Additionally,efficienciesandfuelinputsweretakenintoaccountinthemodel.
Forthecalculations,Moroccowassplitintofourregionsbasedondifferencesinwindspeedconditionsandsolarradiation.Duringthecalculations,allcapacityinstalledwassplituporallocatedtotheregionsdefinedtomodelregion-specificproduction.Foreachoftheregions,onerepresentativemeasuringpointanditsrespectivewindspeedandsolarradiationdata(cf.NASA2016)wasapplied.
Theunderlyingwindspeedswereutilizedforthecalculationoftheelectricityproductionfromwindpower.ForthemodellingofPVandconcentratedsolarpower(CSP),solarradiationdatawerepre-processed,andregion-specificnormalizedproductioncurvesasmodelledwiththeSAMsoftware(cf.NREL2016)wereutilizedinthespreadsheetmodel.Economicdataincludedcapitalexpenditures(CAPEX)andoperationalexpenditures(OPEX)thatwerealsodependentonthetechnologies’servicelifeandinterestrates(weightedaveragecostofcapital,WACC)andwereassumedtodecreaseovertime.
ThetransmissiongridbetweentheregionswasbasedonfigurespresentedinONEE2016.Inthemodel,theresidualloadwascalculatedforthemodelregions.Forthescenariosmodelled,potentiallynecessarytransmissiongridenhancementswerederivedfromexcesspowerandpowershortagesintheregions,relatedtotheexisting
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transmissioncapacity.Thisneedstoberegardedasanapproximationtorealityasthefuturetransmissionrequirementwillheavilydependontheverylocationoftheinstalledcapacity.
Pumpedhydropowerplants(STEP)wereassumedtobetheonlystorageoptioninthesystem.Inthemodel,existingstoragecapacitywastakenintoaccountandwasadjustableinthescenarios.
Thespreadsheetmodeldeliveredseveraloutputsthatwerefedintothesuccessivemulti-criteriaanalysis(MCA,cf.Chapter3).Firstofall,theenergyamountsproducedinthetargetyear2050andtheirsharesintheinstalledproductioncapacityandgeneratedelectricitywerecalculatedforalltechnologies.Moreover,thefuelinputforconventionalpowergenerationwascalculatedandtheresultingdirectCO2emissionswerederivedfromthis.
Additionally,thespecificcostin2050wascalculated.Forthiscalculation,allCAPEXoftheinstalledcapacityin2050wasannuitized.SupplementedbytheOPEXand,ifnecessary,fuelcostin2050,thetotalannualcostwasdividedbytheelectricityproducedandlevelizedcostofelectricity(LCOE)ofthesystemresulted.Thisapproachwasalsoappliedtostorageandpotentiallynecessarygridenhancements.
2.3 ScenariosofMorocco’selectricityfuturein2050
Withthespreadsheetmodelintroduced,theworkshopparticipantsdevelopedfourconsistentscenariosofMorocco’s2050powersupply.Thescenarioscorrespondedtothestakeholders’preferencesvoicedatthebeginningoftheworkshop.Theworkshopparticipantsstatedthatlowelectricitycost,highsharesofrenewableenergies,lowimportsandlowCO2emissionswerethemostimportantissuesforthem.
Itbecameevidentthatinstallationtargetsof2030wouldnotcoverMorocco’spowerdemandin2050.Thatiswhytheinstalledcapacityneededtobeadjustedtofindoptionstocoverthedemandin2050foreveryhouroftheyear.Theworkshopparticipantsthereforediscussedandalteredtheinstalledcapacityinthemodelaccordingtotheirpreferences.Whenaworkingscenariowascompleted,themodelwasresetandtheworkshopparticipantsadjustedtheinstalledcapacityagain.AfulllistofthemainscenarioresultscanbefoundinTable1.
Theloadandproductioninthescenariosdevelopedisexemplarilyillustratedforthefirstweekof2050inFigure1oftheAnnex.
Inthefirstscenariodeveloped(scenarioA),windpowerwasincreasedto35GWandPVto15GWin2050.Alltheotherenergysourcesdidnotdiffersubstantiallyfromthe2030targets.Thescenariowascharacterizedbyashareof2/3ofthetotalinstalledcapacityprovidedbytechnologiesusingintermittentenergysources.Forthescenario,thepumpingcapacityofpumpedstorage(Stationsdetransfertd'énergieparpompage,STEP)wasincreasedto9GW,anditsturbinecapacitywasincreasedto9.6GW.ThecalculationsresultedinCO2emissionsof18.5Mtin2050.Insum,theLCOEofthesystemwas93.7cts/kWh.Thisscenariowascalled“Mix1”asitimpliedavarietyofenergysourcesinstalledin2050.
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Inthesecondscenariodeveloped(scenarioB),windpowerwasfurtherincreasedto45GWandPVto30GWin2050.Allconventionalpowergenerationwasassumedtobetakenoutofoperationby2050.Withthissystemsetting,itwasonlypossibletocovertheloadineveryhouroftheyearwithanincreaseinSTEPcapacity(pumps:10GW,turbines:17.9GW)andanincreaseintheamountofstorableenergy(2000GWh).Withthisscenariosetting,itwaspossibletocoverapproximately100percentofMorocco’spowerdemandin2050byrenewableenergyproduction.Intermittentcapacitywas78%ofthecapacityinstalled.Withnoconventionalpowergenerationinthesystem,CO2emissionswerereducedtozero.TotalLCOEwas106.4cts/kWh,thushigherthaninscenarioA.Thescenariowascalled“100%RES”asitsinstalledgenerationtechnologyin2050consistedentirelyofrenewableenergytechnologies.
Inthethirdscenariodeveloped(scenarioC)thefocuswassetonsolarPVwithaninstalledcapacityof50GWin2050.Windpower(10GW)andconventionalpowergenerationremainedatacomparablylowlevel.Duetoenergysurplusesduringsunshinehours,asubstantiallyhighSTEPpumpcapacityof23.9GWwasnecessarytohavetheloadcoveredineveryhouroftheyear.Insum,theshareofrenewableenergiesintheenergyproducedwasapproximately60percent.LCOEwasfoundtobe103.3cts/kWh,thusbetweenscenarioAandscenarioB.TheresultingCO2emissions(29Mt),however,weresubstantiallygreaterthaninscenarioA.
Inthefourthscenario(scenarioD),windpowercapacitywasincreasedto40GWandPVto10GW.SimilartoscenarioA,conventionalpowergenerationwasnotsubstantiallyalteredcomparedtothe2030targets.ThecapacityofSTEPwasincreasedto10GW(pumps)and7.5GW(turbines),respectively.Withthiscombinationofcapacity,ashareofRESof78.4percentwasreachedin2050.Duetothepowerproductionfromconventionaltechnologies,CO2emissionsof19Mtresulted.LCOEwasslightlyhigherthaninscenarioA(94.2cts/kWh).
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Table1
Centralresultsofthescenariosdeveloped
A:Capacitiesandenergyamounts
Scenario A B C D
Name Mix1 100%RES PV Mix2
Capacity(MW)
Energy(TWh/a
Capacity(MW)
Energy(TWh/a)
Capacity(MW)
Energy(TWh/a)
Capacity(MW)
Energy(TWh/a)
Windpower 35,000 98.4 45,000 126.6 10,000 28.1 40,000 112.5
PV 15,000 21.8 30,000 43.6 50,000 72.7 10,000 14.5
Hydropower 3,100 2.6 3,100 1.0 3,100 5.2 3,100 2.5
Biomass 3,000 20.4 5,000 20.0 0 0.0 3,000 19.0
CSP 2000 4.2 2,000 2.4 1,300 2.6 1,500 3.1
Coal 5000 26.6 0 0.0 4,937 35.0 6,000 28.9
Oil 741 4.2 0 0.0 741 5.5 741 4.0
Gas 500 11.5 0 0.0 6,172 37.2 6,172 9.2
TOTAL 69,341 189.7 85,100 193.7 76,250 186.7 70,513 193.9
B:Storage,emissions,cost
Scenario A B C D
Name Mix1 100%RES PV Mix2
STEP(energy) GWh 702 2,000 702 702
STEP(pump) MW 9,000 10,000 23,906 10,000
STEP(turbine) MW 9,635 17,926 14,283 7,511
CO2emissions Mt 18.5 0.0 29.3 19.1
LCOE cts/kWh 93.7 106.4 103.3 94.2
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3 Multi-criteriaanalysis3.1 Background
Aspartoftheprocess,allstakeholderswereintroducedtotheMCAcarriedoutontheseconddayoftheworkshop.Theanalysisaimedatobtainingaweightingofasetofcriteria(Figure2)thathadbeencompiledfromdataprovidedbyworkpackages1and2.ThemathematicalmethodologyAHP(analyticalhierarchyprocess)wasappliedtocalculatetheweightingbasedonapairwisecomparisonofthecriteria.ThedefinitionsofallcriteriatakenintoaccountcanbefoundinTable2oftheAnnex.
Figure2
Thecriteriasetinhierarchicalorder
3.2 Stakeholdergroupidentificationandweightingprocess
Thecriteriacategoriesatthehighestlevelofthehierarchy(techno–economic,environmental,societal)includingashortdescriptionofsub-criteriawerepresented.Allstakeholderswereaskedtojoinoneofthefourfollowinggroupsaccordingtothepreferencesandvaluesoftheirinstitutions:
/ Techno–economicgroup:Higherpreferencefortechno–economiccriteria;/ Ecologicalgroup:Higherpreferenceforenvironmentalcriteria;/ Societalgroup:Higherpreferenceforsocietalcriteria;/ Equalpreferencegroup:Equalpreferencesamongthethreecategoriesofcriteria.
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Assoonasthefourgroupswereformed,theactualweightingprocessstarted.Forthisprocess,anindividualquestionnairewashandedouttoeachstakeholder,andeachgroupreceivedanadditionalgroupquestionnaire.Tounderstandthecriteriacorrectly,asheetwithcriteriadescriptionswasdistributedamongthestakeholders.Theparticipantswereaskedtofirstfillouttheirindividualquestionnaire,thenannouncetheirchoicestotheothergroupmembersandfinallydiscussanddecideonagroupweightingthatallgroupmemberscanidentifywith.
3.3 Discussionandresultsoftheweightingprocesses
Eachstakeholdergroupwasaskedtobrieflydescribehowtheyexperiencedtheweightingprocessintheirgroup,whetherdifferencesbetweentheindividualandthegroupweightingsexisted,andwhichcriteriawerefinallydiscussedmost.
Here,themajorityofthestakeholdergroupsstatedthattherewereonlysmalldifferencesbetweentheirindividualweightings.Wheneverdivergingopinionswereidentifiedwithinagroup,theparticipantsdiscussedthesedifferencesandfinallyagreedonaconsensus.Theecologicalgroupreporteddifficultiesfindinganappropriateweightingforthecomparisonbetweensafetyandairpollution(health)astheycouldnotagreewhichonewasmoreimportantfromtheirpointofview.
TheresultsoftheweightingsofeachgroupaswellasthemathematicalaverageweightingofallgroupsaredisplayedinTable2.
Table2Groupweightingsandthemathematicalaverageweightingacrossallgroupsinpercentagepoints Techno-
economicgroupEcological
groupSocialgroup
Equalpreferencegroup
Mathematicalaverage
Systemcost 15.6 0.7 13.5 20.1 9.4
Systemflexibility 4.8 2.3 5.8 9.6 6.3
Energyindependence 51.1 7.5 52.2 41.7 38.5
CO2emissions 1.0 6.1 0.7 1.3 1.9
Landrequirements 0.9 2.6 1.2 0.7 1.5
Waterrequirements 5.9 39.3 6.2 9.2 13.6
Hazardouswaste 6.4 15.8 6.2 3.1 8.5
On-sitejobcreation 2.6 1.1 0.6 1.6 1.8
Domesticvaluechainintegration
7.7 5.6 3.1 7.8 7.9
Safety 2.0 2.7 3.0 2.2 3.5
Airpollution(health) 2.0 16.5 7.5 2.6 7.1
Total 100 100 100 100 100
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Mostofthegroupsweightedenergyindependenceasthemostimportantcriterionbyfar.Theothercriteriaobtainedarelativelylowweightingcomparedtoenergyindependence.Onlytheecologicalgroupdevelopedastructurallydifferentweighting,resultinginwaterrequirementsasthemostimportantcriterion—followedbyhazardouswasteandairpollution(health).
3.4 FindingaconsensusAfterdiscussingthemathematicalaverageweighting,thestakeholdersweregiventhechancetochangetheweightingincaseitdidnotreflecttheirjudgment.TheConsensus1weightinginTable3showstheseadjustmentsmade.Theenergyindependencelostonimportance,butremainedthemostimportantcriterion.Itwasarguedthatjobcreationandtheestablishmentofdomesticindustrywouldbecrucialforachievingenergyindependence.Thecriteriadomesticvaluechainintegrationandon-sitejobcreationthereforereceivedahigherweighting.Theweightingforthecriterionsystemcostincreasedaswell.Itwassaidtobeanimportantcriterion,especiallyforadevelopingcountrylikeMorocco,asenergypricesneedtobelowtobeaffordableforthepeople.Theweightingofthecriterionsystemflexibilitywasalsoincreased.However,itwasdiscussedthatthiscriterionwouldprobablybemoreimportantfromtheproducer’spointofviewthanfromtheconsumer’spointofview.TheworkshopparticipantsfurtherdiscussedthattheweightingofthecriterionwaterrequirementsshouldstayinthesamerangeasMoroccoisfacingseverewaterscarcity.Inturn,theydecidedtolowertheweightingofthecriterionhazardouswaste.AccordingtoanumberofstakeholdersitisunlikelythattherewillbeanuclearpowerplantbuiltinMorocco.Theythereforeconcludedthatthiscriterionisnotasimportantasothers.
Table3
Themathematicalaverageweightingcomparedtothefirstandsecondconsensusweightinginpercentagepoints. Mathematicalaverage Consensus1 Consensus2
Systemcost 9 12 16
Systemflexibility 6 12 12
Energyindependence 38 29 25
CO2emissions 2 4 4
Landrequirements 1 1 1
Waterrequirements 14 12 12
Hazardouswaste 8 4 4
On-sitejobcreation 2 6 6
Domesticvaluechainintegration
8 11 11
Safety 3 3 3
Airpollution(health) 7 6 6
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TheresultsforConsensus2reflecttheweightingaftertheclarificationofamisunderstandingonthedefinitionofsystemcoststhathasbeenfacedbyveryfewparticipantsandwasexpressedonlyaftertheagreementonConsensus1.Theparticipantsweregiventhechancetorevisetheconsensusinlightoftheclarifications.Thisresultedinminorchangesinfavourofthecriterionsystemcost,butdidnotincludesubstantialchangestotheconsensus.Consensus2canfinallyberegardedasacommonagreementofallworkshopparticipantsconcerningtheimportanceoftheelevencriteriaunderstudyforthedevelopmentoftheMoroccanelectricitysystem.
3.5 RankingofthescenariosThedifferentweightingsofcriteriawerecombinedwiththefourscenariosdevelopedonthepreviousday(seepart1oftheworkshopsummary).Thisallowedtorankthescenariosaccordingtothestakeholder’spreferenceselaboratedthroughtheweightingprocess.AspresentedinTable4,thedifferentweightingsallleadtothesamerankingexceptasmallalternationintheconsensus2weighting:Thescenariofeaturing100%Renewablesrankedfirst,followedbyscenario“Mix2”and“Mix1”(invertedorderofMix2and1inconsensus1)andscenario“PV”wasleastpreferredacrossallscenarios.
Table4
Therankingofthefourscenariosaccordingtothedifferentweightings
Techno–economic
group
Ecologicalgroup
Socialgroup
Equalpreference
group
Groupaverage
Consensus1 Consensus2
100%renewable
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Mix2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3
Mix1 3 3 3 3 3 3 2
PV 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
Theidenticalrankingcanbeexplainedbythesimilarweightingpatterns.Asdiscussedearlier,inmostweightings,theenergyindependencewasbyfarconsideredthemostimportantcriterion.Astheenergyindependenceishighestinthe100percentrenewableenergyscenario(cf.Table4),itisrankedfirstplace.Theecologicalgroupwastheonlyoneweightingwaterrequirementsasthemostimportantcriterionandairpollutionandhazardouswasteassecondmostimportantcriteria.Asthe100percentrenewableenergyscenarioachievesthebestscoresforthesecriteriaaswell,italsoranksfirstplacewhentheecologicalgroupweightingisapplied.TheexactindicatorvaluesforeachscenariocanbefoundinTable1oftheAnnex.
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3.6 ConclusionAsaresult,thescenariorankingobtainedbymeansofaMCAturnsouttoberobustwithregardtothepreferencesofallstakeholdergroupsinvolvedintheworkshop.The100percentrenewableenergyscenarioperformsbestinthosesubjectareasthathavebeenidentifiedasmostrelevantforallparticipants(especiallyenergyindependenceandwaterconsumption).ThisscenariothereforeranksfirstplaceinthefinalrankingthatresultsfromtheMCAofworkshopdaytwo.Achievingtheoutlinesofthisscenarioin2050wouldresultinanenergysystemsolelybasedonrenewableenergieswherebythemajorityoftheenergywouldbeproducedbywindandsolarpowerplants.
4 ResultsofworkshopdiscussionsTheresultsofalldiscussionsandresultsduringtheworkshoparegroupedintodifferenttopics.
/ UseoftechnologiesTheworkshopparticipantsagreedonthegoaltoexpandrenewableenergytechnologiesinMoroccointhefutureandtoreduceorminimizeinvestmentsinconventionalpowerplants.Fortheyear2030,nationaltargetshavebeensetbythenationalgovernmentthatcorrespondtoashareofinstalledrenewablecapacityofabout52percent.Anincreaseininstalledcapacityofconventionalpowerplantsafter2030wasnotdesiredbytheworkshopparticipants.Thestakeholdersfurthermoreagreedthattheuseofgeothermalpowerplants,nuclearpowerplantsandoffshorewindfarmswouldnotberequiredtosatisfytheelectricitydemandin2050.Thesetechnologieshavenotbeenincludedinthenationaltargetsfor2030.TheuseofnuclearenergyhasbeensubjectofanintensediscussioninMoroccoforalongtime,andapotentialsiteforaplanthasalreadybeenidentified.However,theworkshopparticipantsagreedthatnuclearenergywouldnotbeanoptionforMorocco’sfuturepowersupplyduetosafetyreasonsandduetotheunansweredquestionofthedisposalofnuclearwaste.Itwasalsoagreedtoincludeasubstantialshareofgaseousbiomassasanotherenergysourceinthescenarioscalculated.BiomasshasnotbeenincludedinMorocco’s2030targets.Althoughuntilnowonlyfew,andmostlysmall,biogaspowerplantshavebeeninoperationinMorocco,thistechnologyseemedtobeoneoptiontoreduceMorocco’sincreasingquantitiesofdomesticandagriculturalwaste.
/ Electricitycost
Duringtheworkshop,severalparticipantsstronglyemphasizedthatlowelectricitycostperkilowatthourwouldbethekeyaspectinMorocco’senergyfuture.Thisviewwasinteraliabasedontheenvisagedaffordabilityofelectricityinthecountry.Recently,theelectricitypriceinMoroccohasbeenrelativelylowduetostipulationbypublicauthorities,andpriceswerefoundtobebelowactualcostofgenerationandtransmission.Expectationsforthefutureareaimingatanintensifieduseof
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domesticresources,suchasrenewableenergies,whichcanreduceorlimitgenerationcostaswellasincreasethenation’senergeticindependence.
/ Securityandindependenceofsupply
TheparticipantsagreedthatanincreasingenergeticindependenceofMoroccoshouldbeenvisaged.ThishowevercannotonlybeachievedbytheimportofrenewabletechnologybutitalsorequiresaprofoundknowledgetransfertoMorocco.Bydoingso,morenationalproductioncouldbeestablished,i.e.morepartsofthevaluechainofproductionprocesseswouldbeavailableinMorocco,whichagainwouldincreasethenationaladdedvalueandjobcreation.Theworkshopparticipantsassessedthatinthecaseofwindpowersuchatransformationhasproventobedoableandhasalreadybeensuccessfullyongoinginthecountry.Itwasmentionedthatnearly70percentoftheaddedvaluefromwindpowerwouldremaininthecountryandthatMoroccohasdecreaseditsdependenceontheimportoftechnologycomponents.Moreover,theworkshopparticipantsbelievedthatMoroccoshouldnotbaseitspowersystemononesingletechnologyandtheyidentifiedaneedtoexplorethedomesticpotentialofdifferentrenewableenergysources.Thiscouldincreaseandguaranteethesecurityaswellastheindependenceofsupply.
/ Landandwateruse
TheworkshopparticipantsconsideredthefundamentalfactthatsufficientspaceisavailableinMoroccofortheinstallationofsubstantialamountsofrenewablecapacity.However,theyshowedgreatconcernregardingthefutureuseofimportantagriculturalareasassitesofnewpowerplants.Otherthanspace,Moroccoisfacedwiththeproblemofwaterscarcity.Thefreshwaterdemandhascontinuouslyincreasedwithinthelastyears,andresourceshaverunshort.Thischallengecouldbetackledbyproducingcheapelectricityfromrenewableenergyresourcesforlargescaleseawaterdesalination.SeawateriscomparablyeasytoaccessduetoMorocco’slongcoastline.Giventhechallengeofwaterscarcity,mostoftheworkshopparticipantsagreedonnotexpandingtheutilizationofconcentratedsolarpower(CSP)plantsonalargescaleassumingthatCSPcanrequiresubstantialamountsofcoolingwater.
Inadditiontotheaforementionedaspects,theworkshopparticipantsagreedonthegoalthatMoroccoshouldbecomeanelectricityexportinginsteadofanelectricityimportingnation.Duetohighpotentialsofdifferentrenewableenergyresources,Moroccocouldproduceenoughelectricityforitsnationaluseaswellasforexportpurposes.
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5 Conclusion&RecommendationsFromtheworkshopresultsdescribedabove,thefollowingsummaryofexpectationsandpreferencesoftheworkshopstakeholders,i.e.aheterogenicgrouprepresentinglargesharesoftheMoroccanpopulation,canbegleaned.
/ NuclearpowerhasbeenregardedasanunpopulartechnologyoptioninMorocco’sfuturepowersupply.
/ Workshopparticipantshavenotbeeninfavouroftheexpansionofconventionalpowergenerationcapacity.
/ Theexpansionofcapacityofrenewableenergytechnologieshasbeendesiredthemost,particularlydiversetypesofenergysources.
/ TheuseofbiogasplantsonalargescalewasregardedtobenotjustanoptionofasustainableelectricityproductionbutalsoasanoptiontoreducewasteinMorocco.
/ Theneedtogenerateandprovideelectricityatlowcostshasbeenemphasized.Ifthiscannotbeachieved,theMoroccanpopulationcannotpayforandusetheelectricity.
Basedontheseinsightsgainedduringtheworkshop,wepresentthefollowingrecommendationsforthelong-termdevelopmentoftheMoroccanpowersector:
/ Toachieveahighlevelofenergyindependence,Moroccoshouldfocusinparticularonrenewableenergysourcesforitsfuturepowersupply.Sustainablebiomasstechnologiesbasedonresidualmaterialflowsshouldbeconsideredinthenationallong-termgoals.Conventionalgenerationshouldplayaminorrole.
/ RepresentativesofthepopulationneedtobeincludedinthediscussiononMorocco’sfutureelectricitysupplytoincreasethepublicsupportofthenationaltargets.Thereshouldbeastrategytoassurethatallsocietalgroupsareenabledtoparticipateinthisprocess.
/ Opportunitiesshouldbeinvestigatedtoestablishanelectricitysystembasedon100percentrenewableenergywhilesimultaneouslylimitingtherequiredcapacitiesforelectricitygenerationandstorage.Theseopportunitiesmayincludethecombinationofrenewabletechnologieswithdifferentfeed-inprofilesorbalancingofsupplyanddemandwiththehelpofdifferentflexibilityoptions.
/ ApplicationpotentialsofadditionalstoragetechnologiesapartfromSTEPshouldbeidentifiedtoreducethedependencyofelectricitystorageontheavailabilityofwaterresources.
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6 NextstepsThescenariosdevelopedwiththespreadsheetmodelduringtheworkshopwillbeutilizedasinputstotheRENPASSmodeldevelopedbyEUF.TheRENPASSmodel,again,willbeprovidedtointerestedparties.Anotherworkshopisexpectedtotakeplacebytheendof2016inMoroccoinwhichinterestedpartieswillbetrainedintheutilizationofthemodel.
Moreover,otherpublicationsareplannedtoprovidefurtherdetailsconcerningthemodellingapproach,theinputandoutputparametersaswellastheMCAmethodologyapplied.
WithintheframeworkoftheMENASELECTresearchprojectandapartfromtheworkshopactivitiesinMorocco,furtherresearchworkandworkshopswithlocalstakeholderswillbeconductedinthestateofJordan.
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7 SourcesHamane,T.(2016,January).Trends,visionandchallengesforthepowersector–
MoroccanElectricalSystem.Presentationbyatthe5thGeneralConferenceofArabUnionElectricityinMarrakesh.
NationalAeronauticsandSpaceAdministration(NASA).GoddardSpaceFlightCenter.(2016).Modern-EraRetrospectiveanalysisforResearchandApplications,Version2(MERRA-2).Washington,DCRetrievedfromhttp://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/reanalysis/MERRA-2/
NationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory(NREL).(2016).SystemAdvisorModel(SAM).Golden,CO.Retrievedfromhttps://sam.nrel.gov/
Schinke,B.,Klawitter,J.,Zejli,D.,Barradi,T.,Garcia,I.,&Leidreiter,A.(2016).Backgroundpaper:CountryfactsheetMorocco.Energyanddevelopmentataglance2016.Bonn:Germanwatch,BICC.
Trieb,F.,Hess,D.,Kern,J.,Fichter,T.,Moser,M.,Pfennig,U.,Caldez,N.,...Lilliestam,J.(2015).BETTER–BringingEuropeandthirdcountriesclosertogetherthroughrenewableenergies.WP3:NorthAfricacasestudy.Finalreport.Stuttgart:GermanAerospaceCenter(DeutschesZentrumfürLuft-undRaumfahrt,DLR),IntelligentEnergyEurope(IEE).
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8 AnnexFigure1
Exemplaryloadandproductioninthescenariosdeveloped(week1in2050)
Scenario1:
Scenario2:
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Scenario3:
Scenario4:
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Table1
Exactvaluesofeachcriterionforeachscenario
Techno–économic Social Ecologique
Critères
Coû
tsdusystèm
e
Flex
ibilitédu
systèm
e
Indé
pend
ance
én
ergé
tique
Sécu
rité
Pollu
tionde
l’air
loca
le(san
té)
Con
tributionà
l'éco
nomielo
cale
Emission
sCO2
Déc
hetssolides
dang
ereu
x
Con
sommation
d’espa
ce
Con
sommation
d’ea
u
Créationd’em
ploisdirects
Intégrationindu
strie
lle
DhCt/kWh
Échelle1-5
Échelle1-5
Nombrededécès(E-10)
MtÉchelle1-5
Échelle1-5
MtÉchelle1-5
ha m3
Mix1 93.3 2.41 3.66 10 0.25 2.27 3.08 18.47 1.91 61,312 24,277,572
100% 106.0 2.09 4.40 10 0.03 2.49 3.33 0.00 1.01 106,150 2,296,987
PV 102.9 2.25 3.20 5 0.52 2.66 3.14 29.26 2.42 150,539 39,264,302
Mix2 93.9 2.40 3.68 11 0.24 2.16 3.04 19.05 1.88 47,056 24,421,041
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Table2
Criteriadefinition
Techno-economiccriteria Thesecriteriaanalyzethetechnicalandeconomiccharacteristicsoftheelectricitysystem.Theytakeelectricityproductioncosts,dependencyonenergyimportsandproductionvolatilityintoconsideration.
Environmentalcriteria Thesecriteriaanalyzetheenvironmentalcharacteristicsoftheelectricitysystem.Theytakewaterconsumption,landuse,CO2emissionsandmanagementofhazardouswasteintoconsideration.
Societalcriteria Thesecriteriaanalyzethesocio-economiccharacteristicsoftheelectricitysystem.Theytakethesystem’seffectsonpublichealth,theriskofseriousincidentsandthepromotionoflocaleconomyintoconsideration.
Systemcosts Thecostsoftheelectricitysystemincludeproduction,gridextensionandstoragecosts.
Systemflexibility Theelectricitysystem’scapacitytoreactrapidlyandflexiblytochangesinelectricitydemand.
Energyindependence Futurecapacityofthescenariostomakeuseoflocalresourcesinordertoreduceenergydependency.
CO2emissions DirectCO2emissionsofallpowerplantsduringtheobservationperiod.
Landuse Soiloccupationcausedbytheoperationofallpowerplants(on-site).
Waterconsumption Directfreshwaterconsumptionduringtheoperationofallpowerplants(cooling,steamcycle,cleaning).
Hazardouswaste Quantityandqualityofhazardouswasteproducedbyallpowerplants.
Contributiontolocaleconomy
Thescenarios’capacitytointegratethelocaleconomyintotheelectricitysystem.
Safety Thenumberoffatalitiesasaresultofseriousaccidentsduringtheoperationandmaintenanceofpowerplants.
Airpollution(health) Airqualitydeteriorationresultingfromatmosphericpollutantsthatcanbringabouthealthrisks.
On-sitejobcreation Thescenarios’capacitytocreateon-sitejobsduringtheconstructionandoperationofpowerplants.
Domesticvaluechainintegration
Thescenarios’capacitytoencouragetheemergenceand/ordevelopmentofnationalindustriesandofindirectjobsduringtheentirelifecycleofpowerplants.
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bicc\InternationalesKonversionszentrumBonnBonnInternationalCenterforConversionGmbHPfarrer-Byns-Straße1,53121Bonn,Germany+49(0)22891196-0,Fax-22,[email protected]/bicc.de
DirectorforResearchProfessorDrConradSchetter
DirectorforAdministrationMichaelDedek
AUTHORS
MarinaBergisResearchAssociateatEuropa-UniversitätFlensburgSönkeBohmisResearchAssociateatEuropa-UniversitätFlensburgThomasFinkisaresearchfellowattheWuppertalInstitute(researchgroup“FutureEnergyandMobilityStructures”)MurielHauserisamasterstudentinEnergyScienceandTechnologyatETHZurichwithafocusonrenewableenergytechnologies,itspoliciesandeconomics.SheparticipatedintheprojectasaninternattheWuppertalInstituteDrNadejdaKomendantevaisaresearchscholarandcoordinatorofGovernanceinTransitionthemeattheInternationalInstituteforAppliedSystemsAnalysis(IIASA)OleSoukupisaresearchfellowattheWuppertalInstitute(researchgroup“FutureEnergyandMobilityStructures”)
Theresponsibilityforcontentsandviewsexpressedinthispublicationliesentirelywiththeauthors.
COPYEDITORHeikeWebb
DATEOFPUBLICATION01September2016
Withfinancialsupportfrom
Exceptwhereotherwisenoted,thisworkislicensedunder: cf.creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/
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