EMN Ireland | www.emn.ie
Migration Patterns of Celtic Tiger Young and other Residents of the Irish Habitat
Where did Paddy, Pawel and Peng go next?
Corona Joyce, Philip O’Connell and Emma Quinn
Presentation to Metropolis Conference, Ponta Delgada, Sept 14th, 2011
EMN Ireland | www.emn.ie
Expected Impact of Crisis
Immigrants suffer more Employment losses
Economic sectors, less secure contracts, lower job tenure
Net migration falls Less immigration or more emigration? Who leaves? Where do they go?
EMN Ireland | www.emn.ie
‘Moral Panic’: Return of Mass Emigration?
EMN Ireland | www.emn.ie
4 Crises Property bubble Banking collapse Fiscal crisis of the state Mass unemployment
EMN Ireland | www.emn.ie
GNP Growth Rate: GNP down by 3.5% in 2008, 10.7% in 2009 and 2% in 2010
Source: Quarterly Economic Commentary
EMN Ireland | www.emn.ie
Rate of Unemployment: 4.2% in 2005 to 14.2% in 2011
Source: QNHS
EMN Ireland | www.emn.ie
Unemployment Rates:14% among Irish, >20% among UK and EU-NMS
Source: QNHS
EMN Ireland | www.emn.ie
Gap between Irish and Non-Irish Unemployment Rates 2004-2011
Source: QNHS
EMN Ireland | www.emn.ie
Irish Labour Migration Policy in the Current Downturn
Further restriction on work permits for low paid non-EU workers in 2009.
Revision of the list of occupations eligible for Green Cards in the €30,000-€60,000 salary per annum category.
Increased controls on non-EU students. Immigration permission to reside for workers who have
held permits for 5 years + (in absence of statutory long-term residence status)
Six month ‘breathing space’ in relation to workers made redundant.
Third-Level Graduate Scheme designed to allow graduates to work in Ireland.
EMN Ireland | www.emn.ie
Changes in Employment and Population, Adult Non-Nationals, 2008 q1 to 2011 q1, 1,000’s:
Employment fell by 140,000, population by 126,000
Source: QNHS
EMN Ireland | www.emn.ie
Changes in Employment and Adult Population by Nationality, 2008 q1 to 2011 q1, 1,000’s
Source: QNHS
EMN Ireland | www.emn.ie
Annual Changes in Adult Population: Irish and Non-Irish Nationals
Source: Population and Migration Estimates
EMN Ireland | www.emn.ie
% Change in Adult Population, by Nationality, 2008 q1 to 2011 q1:
Relative decline greater among EU-13 and UK nationals
Source: QNHS
EMN Ireland | www.emn.ie
Migration Flows, Ireland, 1987-2010:Inflow down from 110,000 in 2007 to 31,000 in 2010Outflow up from 42,000 to 65,000
Source: Population and Migration Estimates
EMN Ireland | www.emn.ie
Immigration by Nationality, 2004-2010, 1,000’s:EU-NMS: from 53,000 in 2007 to 6,000 in 2010Rest of World: from 20,000 to 5,000
Source: Population and Migration Estimates
EMN Ireland | www.emn.ie
Emigration by Nationality, 2006-2010, 1,000’s:35% Irish, 38% EU-NMS in 2009-10
Source: Population and Migration Estimates
EMN Ireland | www.emn.ie
Marital Status and % Not in a Family Unit by Nationality Group, Aged 20-44, 2008 & 2010
Irish UK EU-13 EU-NMS ROW
2008 2010 2008 2010 2008 2010 2008 2010 2008 2010
Single 57% 56% 39% 45% 72% 60% 60% 46% 38% 30%
Married 40% 41% 55% 51% 26% 37% 37% 50% 59% 66%
Other 3% 3% 6% 5% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% Not in family unit
14% 15% 15% 16% 48% 35% 40% 29% 30% 21%
Source: QNHS
EMN Ireland | www.emn.ie
Emigration by Destination, 2004-2010, 1,000’s:EU-13 and UK increasing
Source: Population and Migration Estimates
EMN Ireland | www.emn.ie
Emigration by Nationality and by Destination, 1,000’s
2009 2010Nationality Destination Nationality Destination
Irish 18.4 27.7UK 2.9 11.9 2.6 14.4EU-13 5.5 6.6 7.8 11.0EU-NMS 30.1 22.9 19.1 13.8RoW 8.3 23.8 8.1 26.1Total 65.1 65.1 65.3 65.3
•Substantial emigration to Rest of World •UK, EU-13 and Rest of World: destinations exceed nationals•EU-NMS migrating onwards
EMN Ireland | www.emn.ie
Conclusion Crisis had a dramatic impact on
immigrants Particularly EU-NMS in labour market
Immigration fell by more than emigration Who Emigrated?
Largest numbers: EU-NMS Population decline related to ‘costs’
EU-13 and UK declined by more, Rest of World by less
% single individuals in migrant population fell
Where did they go? Substantial migration to Rest of World & UK Many EU-NMS migrating onwards
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