Critical National Needs in New Technologies:
Efficiency & Renewables
National Academy of SciencesApril 24, 2008
Sam BaldwinChief Technology Officer and Member, Board of Directors
Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable EnergyU.S. Department of Energy
Context• Energy-Linked Challenges
• Economy—economic development and growth; energy costs• Environment—local (particulates), regional (acid rain), global (GHGs)• Energy Security—foreign energy dependence, reliability, stability• Scale and Time Constants
• Responses: EERE R&D Activities– Energy Efficiency FY06 App FY07 App FY08 App
• Buildings $ 68.3 $ 104.3 $108.9• Industry $ 55.8 $ 56.6 $ 64.4• Vehicles $ 178.4 $ 188.0 $213.0• Hydrogen $ 153.5 $ 193.5 $211.1
– Renewable Energy• Biomass $ 89.7 $ 199.7 $198.2• Wind $ 38.8 $ 49.3 $ 49.5• Solar $ 81.8 $ 159.4 $156.1• Geothermal $ 22.8 $ 5.0 $ 19.8Total Research $ 689.1 $ 955.8 $1021Total EERE $1162. $1457. $1722
Saudi Arabia 26%Iraq 11Kuwait 10Iran 9UAE 8Venezuela 6Russia 5Mexico 3Libya 3China 3Nigeria 2U.S. 2
U.S. 24.4%China 8.6Japan 5.9Russia 3.4India 3.1Germany 2.9Canada 2.8Brazil 2.6S. Korea 2.6Mexico 2.4France 2.3Italy 2.0
Nations that HAVE oil Nations that NEED oil(% of Global Reserves) (% of Global Consumption)
Source: EIA International Energy Annual
The Oil Problem
Impacts of Oil Dependence• Domestic Economic Impact• Trade Deficit: ~47% of $710B trade deficit in 2007• Foreign Policy Impacts
– Strategic competition for access to oil– Oil money supports undesirable regimes – Oil money finds its way to terrorist organizations
• Vulnerabilities– to system failures: tanker spills; pipeline corrosion; …– to natural disasters: Katrina; …– to political upheaval: Nigeria; …– to terrorist acts: Yemen; Saudi Arabia; …
• Economic Development– developing world growth stunted by high oil prices; increases instability
• Natural Gas?– Russia cut-off of natural gas to Ukraine– Russia provides 40% of European NG imports now; 70% by 2030.
Oil Futures
Oil Sources
• Constraints– Cost– Energy – Water– Atmosphere
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Other
Czech Republic
Poland
South Africa
Germany
Australia
India
China
Former Soviet Union
United States
Coal Reserves World Total: 1,088 Billion Short Tons
Peak Year of ROW Conventional OilProduction: Reference/USGS
0.000
0.020
0.040
0.060
0.080
0.100
0.120
0.140
Mean=2022.669
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20502000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
5% 85.87% 9.13% 2016 2028
Mean=2022.669
Source: David Greene, ORNL
• Resources – Oil Shale
• U.S.—Over 1.2 trillion Bbls-equiv. in highest-grade deposits
– Tar Sands• Canadian Athabasca Tar Sands—
1.7 T Bbls-equivalent• Venezuelan Orinoco Tar Sands
(Heavy Oil)—1.8 T Bbls-equiv.– Coal
• Coal Liquefaction—4 Bbls/ton
Potential Impacts of GHG Emissions• Temperature Increases
• Precipitation Changes• Glacier & Sea-Ice Loss• Water Availability
• Wildfire Increases • Ecological Zone Shifts• Extinctions
• Agricultural Zone Shifts• Agricultural Productivity
• Hurricane Intensity• Sea Level Rise• Ocean pH Decreases
• Human Health
• Feedback Effects Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,Fourth Assessment Report, Working Group 2, “ImpactsAdaptation and Vulnerability”.
Carbon Emissions, Ocean pH, & Coral ReefsHoegh-Guldberg, et al., Science, V.318, pp.1737, 14 Dec. 2007
Climate Change
– “We urge all nations … to take prompt action to reduce the causes of climate change …”.
– Signed by National Academies’ of Science: Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Russia, United Kingdom, U.S.A., 2005.
• Joint Science Academies’ Statement: – “There is now strong evidence that significant global warming is occurring.”– “…most of the warming in recent decades can be attributed to human activities.”– “The scientific understanding of climate change is now sufficiently clear to justify
nations taking prompt action.”– “Long-term global efforts to create a more healthy, prosperous, and sustainable
world may be severely hindered by changes in climate.”
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
CO NOx VOC SOx PM10 PM2.5 CO2
ElectricityBuildingsIndustryTransport
U.S. Energy-Linked Emissions as Percentage of Total Emissions
New York City during the August
2003 blackout
Kristina Hamachi LaCommare, and Joseph H. Eto, LBNL
Costs of Power Interruptions
Time Constants• Political consensus building ~ 3-30+ years• Technical R&D ~10+ • Production model ~ 4+ • Financial ~ 2++ • Market penetration ~10++ • Capital stock turnover
– Cars ~ 15 – Appliances ~ 10-20– Industrial Equipment ~ 10-30/40+– Power plants ~ 40+ – Buildings ~ 80 – Urban form ~100’s
• Lifetime of Greenhouse Gases ~10’s-1000’s• Reversal of Land Use Change ~100’s• Reversal of Extinctions Never
• Time available for significant action ??
End-use Efficiency Upstream LeverageMotor Drive System Efficiency
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
Mining
Genera
tion
T&D
Motor
Coupli
ngPum
p
Thro
ttle Valv
e
Piping
Inpu
t Ene
rgy
Rem
aini
ng
Reducing energy loss in end-use systems has large leverage upstream!
U.S. Energy Consumption
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Qua
ds
U.S. Energy Consumption
U.S. Energy Consumption atconstant 1970 E/GDP
Energy Efficiency
Efficiency; StructuralChange
1970-2003Gas 0.7QRETs 2.1Nucl 7.7Oil 9.6Coal 10.4
Site Electricity Consumption
Source: Building Technology Program Core Databook, August 2003. http://buildingsdatabook.eren.doe.gov/frame.asp?p=tableview.asp&TableID=509&t=xls
Buildings Energy Use
Space Heating10%
Lighting30%
Water Heating9%
Space Cooling17%
Refrigeration11%
Electronics9%
Appliances7%
Ventilation4%
Computers3%
Space Heating27%
Lighting21%
Water Heating14%
Space Cooling12%
Refrigeration8%
Computers2%
Ventilation3%
Appliances7%
Electronics6%
Total Primary Energy (all fuels)
8.2 quads2400 B kWh 37.6 quads
(2001)
Building EnvelopeWindows, Walls, Floors
Building Systems(“whole-systems”)Design toolsSystem IntegrationBenchmarking(EnergyStar, LEED)
On-Site Power SystemsBuilding Integrated PhotovoltaicsFuel Cells
Building EquipmentSpace conditioningLightsAppliancesSmart Controls
Net Zero Energy Buildings
Reduce total building energy use by 60–70 percentHighly efficient, cost-effective solid-state lighting technologies,
advanced windows and space heating and cooling technologies. Source: BTP
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Year
1972, first oilprice shocks.
1974, California AuthorizesEnergy Efficiency Standards.
1977, first Californiastandards take effect.
Average 1980 model had19.6 Cu. Ft. of capacity, andused 1278 kWh per year.
By 1993, a typical model had 20.1 Cu. Ft. ofcapacity, featured more through-the-door serviceslike ice and water, and used 48% less energy thanthe 1980 models.
1986, Average UEC when firstUS Standard is negotiated(1074 kWh)
1990, First US Standard takeseffect (976 kWh)
1993, Updated USStandard (686 kWh)
LBNL Projections
-9%
-36%
-56%
2001, Second Update ofUS Standard (476 kWh)
Average 1961 model hadapproximately 12 CU. Ft. ofcapacity and used 1015 kWhper year.
U.S. Refrigerator Energy Consumption(Average energy consumption of new refrigerators sold in the U.S.)
Source: LBNL
Buildings R&D Opportunities• Cooling Technologies: Building A/C & Refrigeration (7.5Q—utility peak load);
Industrial A/C & process cooling (~1.6Q); transportation A/C (1.0—vehicle load):– Thermoelectrics; Magnetic Cooling; Dehumidification materials; Heat pumps
and heat exchangersAvoiding HFC refrigerants also reduces GHGs
• Lighting:– LED lighting—additional materials, device structures, phosphors, encapsulants.– Conventional lighting—non-Hg fluorescent lamps; multi-photon phosphors, etc.
• Water Heating: Building water heating (3.6Q); industrial water heating:– Building-Integrated solar water heaters that are low-cost, long-life, freeze-
tolerant, and operate at line pressure. – Low-cost, high reliability electric- or gas-powered heat pump water heaters.
• Building Shells:– Insulants; Phase-change materials for thermal storage– Windows: Electrochromics;
• Others:– Building Intelligence: building-integrated sensors and controls; advanced building
controls; automated continuous commissioning; – Whole Building System Integration: Design tools; Component design/install; – Low-wattage standby devices; low-cost adjustable speed motor drives with integrated
sensors/controllers; selective surfaces for cool roofs, paints; etc.
Buildings Technology Barriers• Buildings sector faces a variety of market frictions/failures, including:
– Consumer Perspective:• Split incentives: owner of building may not pay utilities—paid instead by the tenants—
so that owner has little or no incentive to invest in high efficiency equipment.• Lack of information: The energy performance of a building may not be known,
limiting the ability of the purchaser or user to make an informed investment decision. There are a variety of other shortcomings in information, ranging from difficulty getting reliable, trusted information by the individual to
• Externalities: such as environmental impacts or national security (oil) impacts are generally not fully captured, if at all, in the price/rent of the building and its equipment.
• Capital Cost: consumers are generally more sensitive to first cost than operating cost.• Bundled attributes. Efficiency may be just one consideration among many attributes.• Uncertainties about the new technology may delay consumer adoption.
– Corporate Perspective:• Appropriability of R&D. Corporations may not adequately invest in R&D because it
is difficult to capture the full value of the knowledge gained.• Externalities. Many external costs are not included in the price of energy, limiting
R&D value.• Market Fragmentation may limit the ability of new efficiency technologies to penetrate
or for industry to gather critical mass for conducting the R&D or market development.• Compartmentalization of architects, developers, construction firms, others, fail to
provide appropriate incentives for energy efficiency and limits technology adoption.• Economies of scale/learning may be difficult to develop for new efficiency technology
• Appliance standards/building codes assist rapid deployment at low risk.
Industrial Energy Use
Agriculture8%
Forest Products
11%
Chemicals19%
Petroleum24%
Steel6%
Aluminum2%
Metalcasting1%
Other26%
Mining3%
32.5 Quads(2003)
ITP R&D Areas: Focus on Energy EfficiencyITP R&D Areas: Focus on Energy Efficiency
Fabrication and Infrastructure
Industrial Reaction and Separation High Temperature Processes
• Advanced Metal Heating and Reheating
• Advanced Melting• Efficient Heat Treating• High Efficiency Calcining• Next-Generation Steelmaking
• Oxidation Processes• Microchannel Reactors• Hybrid Distillation• Alternative Processes• Advanced Water Removal
• Near Net Shape Casting and Forming• Energy Efficient and Safe Extraction
Operations• Inferential Process Control for Product
Quality• Ultra-hard Materials• Joining and Assembly
Develop energy efficient technologies for making near net-shape finished products from basic materials
Develop technologies for efficient reaction and separation processes
Develop energy efficient high-temperature process technologies for producing metals and non-metallic minerals
Energy Conversion SystemsDevelop high efficiency steam generation and combustion technologies and improved energy recovery technologies
• Thermal Transport Systems• Super Boiler• Ultra-High Efficiency Furnace• Waste Heat Recovery
Source: ITP
Industry R&D Opportunities• Advanced Materials: Low-cost, high-strength materials; low-corrosion materials;
micro-structural control of material properties; non-destructive testing of materials. • Advanced Fabrication and Forming Technologies: Near-net shape
forming; microstructure control.• Advanced Processing: High-temperature processing (examples); microchannel
reactors; synthetic biological processing; Agile manufacturing; System integration; Robotics;
• Industrial Energy Flexibility: Flexible multi-fuel industrial energy supply systems, using multiple energy resources—coal (with hot gas cleanup, etc.), biomass, etc.—for boilers, power, feedstocks.
• Intelligent Processes: Sensors and Controls, power electronics; Sensors for high temperature, reactive environments;
• Motor Drive: Low-cost adjustable speed drives for motors (also FCVT).• Reactions and Separations: Energy-efficient; high temperature membranes;
reactive membranes; filters; Separation mechanisms in multicomponent systems, heterogeneous/homogenous catalysis;
• Computational Fluid Dynamics: Analysis of multi-phase systems and flows. • Advanced Combustion: Emissions controls; • Super Boilers: high-efficiency and low-emission boiler systems. • Waste Heat Recovery: Thermoelectrics (from FCVT); Heat exchangers;
nanostructured heat-exchanger fluids; • Lighting, Cooling, Water Heating, etc.—(from BTS).
Industry Technology Barriers• The Industrial sector, and especially the heavy materials arena, faces
a variety of market challenges, frictions, and failures, including:– 1) Mandatory investments; 2) Capacity expansion; 3) Product Development; 4) Cost
Reduction—and all face Capital Constraints– Severe International Competition by low-wage, low-cost, low environmental compliance
countries limit U.S. profit margins and ability to invest in product and process R&D improvements. Some industries carry a high retiree and health overhead, further reducing available capital for R&D investment. Underlying financial health is poor with industry profit margins of 1-2%(?), credit ratings downgraded, resulting in higher cost of capital.
– Product Differentiation is more difficult for basic commodity materials, reducing the incentive for product R&D, and focusing R&D instead on process improvements.
– Process R&D. It can be difficult to fully appropriate the benefits from process R&D. Implementing process changes are high risk for operating lines—shutting down production and risking future production in order to save a relatively small cost for energy. Companies prefer to be the 2nd or 3rd to invest, not the leader, to reduce risk and save capital.
– Overall, R&D Investments are low, averaging 0.8% for energy-intensive industries, compared to 4.3% of sales for all industry (update numbers).
– Applications are specialized, often requiring special development for particular industries.
– Scales and capital intensity are large for greenfield development, thus sharply limiting opportunities for next generation systems. Turnover of existing capital stock is very slow.
– Offshoring of consumer product manufacturing reduces geographical benefit for U.S.-based materials industries.
– Research base is eroding, with few grad students in key areas (metallurgy, motors, etc.)
Transport Energy Use
Light-Duty Vehicles
59%
Bus1%
Rail2%
Trucks19%
Marine4%
Pipeline Fuel2%
Air10%
Military3%
27.1 Quads96.6% petroleum
(2003)
Oil Supply, Demand, Options in 2030
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Mill
ion
Bar
rels
/Day
IMPORTS
DOMESTIC
OIL SUPPLY OIL DEMAND
ELECTRICITYRES. & COM.
INDUSTRY
MISC. TRANSPORTAIR
TRUCKS
LIGHTDUTYVEHICLES ETHANOL
EFFICIENCY
OPTIONS
PHEV-20
FCVs
BIOPRODUCTS
EVs
PHEV-40
BIODIESEL/FT
BIO-JET A
Vehicle R&D Needs• High Performance Engines:
– Combustion modeling– Soot formation and evolution– Lean NOx catalyst modeling– Low speed multiphase flows; turbulence
• Battery Storage: HEV/PHEV– High Power/High Energy– Abuse Tolerance; Stability
• Thermoelectrics:– Waste heat recovery– Air conditioning
• Lightweight Frames: – Material deformation in crashes
• Composites; lightweight alloys.• Aerodynamic Drag:
– Low speed flow; turbulence• Heat Exchangers:
– Nanostructured Heat Exchange Fluids– Microchannel Heat Exchangers
• Advanced Motors:– NdFeB temperature sensitivity
• Power Electronics:• Reliability; Temperature sensitivity
Simulation of Fuel-Air Mixing and Combustion. R.D. Weitz, U Wisconsin, in “Basic Research Needs for Clean and Efficient Combustion of 21st
Century Transportation Fuels.”
Hot exhaust system suitable for thermoelectrics.
Transport Fuels• Advanced Fossil Fuels• Biofuels: Ethanol; Fischer-Tropsch Liquids;
Biodiesel; others.• Hydrogen:
– Production: Fossil or biomass reformers; Fossil-, nuclear-, or renewable-powered electrolysis; Nuclear- or solar-heated thermochemical cycles; Photoelectrochemistry; others
– Storage: Chemical hydrides, alanates, chemical carriers, carbon nanostructures, liquid or compressed gas, etc.
– Use: Fuel cell cathode design and platinum loading; polymer electrolytes; fuel processing catalysis
– “Summary Report from Theory Focus Session on Hydrogen Storage Materials”, http://www1.eere.energy.gov/hydrogenandfuelcells/wkshp_theory_focus.html
• Electricity: Fossil, Nuclear, Renewables.
• MD shows lattice expansion upon H2 adsorption• Calculated average H2 adsorption energy of -
20.2 kJ/mol H2 at 7.4 wt% H2 loading.
7.4 wt% H2 in (C6N2)n2n+ 2nF- @ 300KAir Products and Chemicals, Inc.
Cheng et al., DOE 2007 Hydrogen Program Review
Zhao et al., DOE 2007 Hydrogen Program Review
NREL
• Concepts developed for carbon can be extended to other elements
• Reversible capacity: 8.6 wt%• Binding energies range:
15 - 35 kJ/mol
TM boride (no-carbon) nanostructuresB60M20 + 72 H2 B60M20H144
Bioenergy
Commercial & Residential
16.8%
Industrial 67.5%
Transportation4%
Electric Utilities11.6%
Biomass2.9%
Other Renewable
3.8%
Petroleum products40%Other
0%
Coal22%
Nuclear8%
Natural Gas23%
EIA Coal Price Projections
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Ave
rage
Coa
l Pric
e (1
999)
$/M
MB
tu AEO 1991
AEO 1993
AEO 1995
AEO 1997
AEO 1999
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Ave
rage
Coa
l Pric
e (1
999)
$/M
MB
tu AEO 1991
AEO 1993
AEO 1995
AEO 1997
AEO 1999
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Ave
rage
Coa
l Pric
e (1
999)
$/M
MB
tu AEO 1991
AEO 1993
AEO 1995
AEO 1997
AEO 1999
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Ave
rage
Coa
l Pric
e (1
999)
$/M
MB
tu AEO 1991
AEO 1993
AEO 1995
AEO 1997
AEO 1999
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Ave
rage
Coa
l Pric
e (1
999)
$/M
MB
tu AEO 1991
AEO 1993
AEO 1995
AEO 1997
AEO 1999
USESFuels:EthanolRenewable DieselHydrogenPower:ElectricityHeatChemicalsPlasticsSolventsChemical
IntermediatesPhenolicsAdhesivesFurfuralFatty acidsAcetic AcidCarbon blackPaintsDyes, Pigments,
and InksDetergentsEtc.
Food and Feed
Bio-gas
Synthesis Gas
Sugars and Lignin
Bio-Oil
Carbon-RichChains
Plant Products
Hydrolysis
Acids, enzymesGasification
High heat, low oxygen
Digestion
Bacteria
Pyrolysis
Catalysis, heat, pressure
Extraction
Mechanical, chemical
Separation
Mechanical, chemical
Feedstock production,collection, handling & preparation
Ultimate Biorefinery Goal: From any Feedstock to any Product
BioFuels
• Novozyme, Genencor, NREL received 2004 R&D100 award for improving the cellulase enzyme, reducing its cost by ~30-fold to ~$0.18/gallon-ethanol; with corresponding reduction of ethanol cost from $5+/gal to ~$2.25/gal. at present. 0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007e* 2008e*
Capacity Under Construction:6.14 Billion Gallons per Year Expected by End of 2008
Current Production Capacity:5.58 Billion Gallons per Year
• US near-term potential of 1.3 billion dry tons biomass for energy, with minimal impact to ag/forests; could displace up to 30% oil use as fuel.
• Corn ethanol net energy ~25%; cellulosic ethanol net ~85-90%
• Cargill (-Dow) has 150,000 tons capacity of polylactide polymer/yr.
• Toyota projects global bioplasticsmarket of >$50B by 2020
Fermentation Platform Cost Reduction
$0.00
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Min
imum
Eth
anol
Sel
ling
Pric
e ($
/gal
)
State of Technology Estimates
Feed $53/ton
2005 Yield65 gal/ton
Feed $35/tonYield 90 gal/ton
Feed $35/tonYield 94 gal/ton
10,000 TPD
Costs in 2002 Dollars
EnzymeConversionFeedstockCurrent DOE Cost TargetsPresident's Initiative
Source: NREL
BioEnergy R&D• Feedstock production and collection
– Functional genomics; respiration; metabolism; nutrient use; water use; cellular control mechanisms; physiology; disease response;
– Plant growth, response to stress/marginal lands; higher productivity at lower input (water, fertilizer)
– Production of specified components• Biochemical platform
– Biocatalysis: enzyme function/regulation; enzyme engineering for reaction rates/specificity
• Thermochemical platform– Product-selective thermal cracking. Modeling
catalyst-syngas conversion to mixed alcohols, FTs—predicting selectivity, reaction rates, controlling deactivation due to sulfur (e.g. role of Ru in improving S tolerance of Ni).
– CFD modeling of physical and chemical processes in a gasification/pyrolysis reactor
• Bioproducts– New and novel monomers and polymers; – Biomass composites; adhesion/surface science
• Combustion– NOx chemistry, hot gas cleanup
Cellulase Enzyme interacting with Cellulose.Source, Linghao Zhong, et al., “Interactions of the Complete Cellobiohydrolase I from Trichodera reesei with Microcrystalline Cellulose I”
Wind Energy
• R&D has reduced cost of wind power from 80 cents per kilowatt-hour in 1979 to a current range of ~5+ cents per kWh (Class 5-6), moving towards 3 c/kWh.
• Low wind speed technology: x20 resource; x5 proximity• Offshore Resources
U.S. Wind Market Trend
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 20040
102030405060708090
100
Cap
acity
(MW
)
Cos
t of E
nerg
y (c
ents
/kW
h*)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 20040
102030405060708090
100
Cap
acity
(MW
)
Cos
t of E
nerg
y (c
ents
/kW
h*)
9245 MW (End of 2005)
11,6002006
>16,8002007
Typical Rotor Diameters
.75 MW 1.5 MW 2.5 MW 3.5 MW 5 MW
50m (164 ft)
66m (216 ft)
85m (279 ft)
100m (328 ft)747
120m (394 ft)
Boeing
Big Machines, and Growing…
GE Wind 1.5 MW
Source: WTP
U.S. Wind Supply Curve
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
12 2,454 4,896 7,338 9,780
Quantity Available, GW
Leve
lized
Cos
t of E
nerg
y, $
/MW
h
Class 6
Class 4
Class 7
Class 5
Class 3
Onshore
Shallow Offshore
Deep Offshore
Busbar Cost, No Transmission Cost, Today’s Cost/Performance, with PTC (2006$)
Wind Energy Challenges• Wind Energy Systems:
– Stiff, heavy machines that resist cyclic and extreme loads—Versus—Lightweight, flexible machines that bend and absorb or shed loads.
– Need 30 year life in fatigue driven environment with minimal maintenance/no major component replacement.
– Improve models of turbulence and flow separation; Improve analysis of aeroacoustics, aeroelastics, structural dynamics, etc.
• Wind Turbine Design Methods:– Replace full-scale testing with computational models to prove the efficacy of blade and
turbine design.• Wind Farm Design:
– Model turbine interactions with each other and with complex terrain to improve farm layout.• Composite Materials:
– Model material strength, fatigue (progressive loss of strength and stiffness), and failure (fiber failure, bond failure, wall collapse, buckling, etc.)
• Grid Integration:– Understand impact of system on the
utility grid—to better accommodate intermittent wind.
• Atmospheric Modeling:– Improve modeling for wind
forecasting; turbine interactions.• Optimize Turbines for Ocean:
– Wave loading; marine environmentSource: Steve Hammond, NREL
Solar EnergySolar Energy• Price of electricity from
grid-connected PV systems are ~20¢/kWh. (Down from ~$2.00/kWh in 1980)
• Nine parabolic trough plants with a total rated capacity of 354 MW have operated since 1985, with demonstrated system costs of 12 to 14¢/kWh.
PV Shipments and U.S. Market Share
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
400019
9019
9119
9219
9319
9419
9519
9619
9719
9819
9920
0020
0120
0220
0320
0420
0520
0620
07
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
ROW
Europe
Japan
U.S.
U.S. Market Share
Best Research-Cell Efficiencies
026587136
Effic
iency
(%)
Universityof Maine
Boeing
Boeing
Boeing
BoeingARCO
NREL
Boeing
Euro-CIS
200019951990198519801975
NREL/Spectrolab
NRELNREL
JapanEnergy
Spire
No. CarolinaState University
Multijunction ConcentratorsThree-junction (2-terminal, monolithic)Two-junction (2-terminal, monolithic)
Crystalline Si CellsSingle crystalMulticrystallineThin Si
Thin Film TechnologiesCu(In,Ga)Se2CdTeAmorphous Si:H (stabilized)
Emerging PVDye cells Organic cells(various technologies)
Varian
RCA
Solarex
UNSW
UNSW
ARCO
UNSWUNSW
UNSWSpire Stanford
Westing-house
UNSWGeorgia TechGeorgia Tech Sharp
AstroPower
NREL
AstroPower
Spectrolab
NREL
MasushitaMonosolar Kodak
Kodak
AMETEK
Photon Energy
UniversitySo. Florida
NREL
NREL
NRELCu(In,Ga)Se2
14x concentration
NREL
United Solar
United Solar
RCA
RCARCA
RCA RCARCA
Spectrolab
Solarex12
8
4
0
16
20
24
28
32
36
University ofLausanne
University ofLausanne
2005
Kodak UCSBCambridge
NREL
UniversityLinz
Siemens
ECN,The Netherlands
Princeton
UC Berkeley
Source: NREL
Trough Systems
Power Towers
Dish Systems
Concentrating Solar Thermal Power
Source: NREL
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
2004Near Term
2006 2010Mid Term
2015 2020Long Term
cent
s pe
r kW
h
S&L-Trough
S&L - Tower
Sunlab - Tower
Sunlab -Trough
6.2 cents/kWh
4.3 cents/kWh
5.5 cents/kWh
3.5 cents/kWh
CSP Cost Projections
Sargent & Lundy
State Land Area (mi²)
Solar Capacity (GW)
Solar Generation Capacity (GWh)
AZ 19,279 2,468 5,836,517CA 6,853 877 2,074,763CO 2,124 272 643,105NV 5,589 715 1,692,154NM 15,156 1,940 4,588,417TX 1,162 149 351,774UT 3,564 456 1,078,879
Total 53,727 6,877 16,265,611
Potential Generation Capacity by State
Concentrating Solar PowerU.S. Southwest – Significant Opportunity for CSP
Untapped Electricity Generation Potential
– Solar energy in southwestern states could generate 6,800 GW of electricity. (Current U.S. generating capacity is approximately 1,000 GW.)
Cost Reduction Potential– Estimates from Sargent & Lundy and WGA
Solar Task Force indicate costs can go below 6 cents/kWh assuming R&D and deployment.
Direct-Normal Solar Resource for the Southwest U.S.
Map and table courtesy of NREL
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Cummulative New Capacity by 2015 (MW)
LCO
E (2
005$
/kw
h)
Assumes:- Trough Technology w ith 6 hours of TES- IPP Financing, 30-year PPA- California Property Tax Excemption- Includes scale-up, R&D, learning effects,- Barstow , California site
Total Cost
Solar Energy R&D Opportunities• Photovoltaics:
– Improve understanding of materials/growth/characterization and devices, esp. of CIGS, CdTe and Multi-junction thin films—interface chemistry, physics, defects, etc.
– Improve efficiency of photon use with intermediate-band cells, Quantum Dot cells, etc.
– Transparent conducting oxides – Innovative encapsulants.
• Concentrating Solar Power: – Stable, high temperature heat transfer and thermal storage materials,
with low vapor pressure, low freezing points– Stable, high temperature, high performance selective surfaces– High performance reflectors
• Fuels:– High-temperature thermochemical cycles for CSP production—353
found & scored; 12 under further study; Develop falling particle receiver and heat transfer system for up to 1000 C cycles. Develop reactor/receiver designs and materials for up to 1800 C cycles.
– Improved catalysts– Photoelectrochemical: good band-edge matching, durable in solution,
manufacturable– Photobiological—unleashing hydrogenase pathway; – Electrolysis, including thermally boosted solid-oxide electrochemical cells
• Cross-cutting Areas:– Power electronics—wide-band gap materials; Reliable capacitors– Energy Storage
Source: MuhammetE. Köse, et al. “Theoretical Studies on Conjugated Phenyl-Cored ThiopheneDendrimers for Photovoltaic Applications”, NREL
Solar Decathlon: Solar Decathlon: ““Energy We Can Live WithEnergy We Can Live With””; ; Oct.12Oct.12––Oct. 20Oct. 20
Carnegie Mellon; Cornell; Georgia Tech; Kansas State; Lawrence Technological University; MIT; New York Institute of Technology; Pennsylvania State; Santa Clara University; Team Montreal (École de Technologie Supérieure, Université de Montréal, McGill University); Technische Universität Darmstadt; Texas A&M; Universidad Politécnica de Madrid; Universidad de Puerto Rico; University of Colorado – Boulder; University of Cincinnati; University of Illinois; University of Maryland; University of Missouri, Rolla; University of Texas, Austin.
ArchitectureEngineeringMarket ViabilityCommunicationsComfort
AppliancesHot WaterLightingEnergy BalanceGetting Around
Source: STP
Geothermal Technologies
• Current U.S. capacity is ~2,800 MW; 8,000 MW worldwide.• Current cost is 5 to 8¢/kWh; Down from 15¢/kWh in 1985• 2010 goal: 3-5¢/kWh.
Geothermal R&D Opportunities• Exploration:
– Remote sensing• Reservoir Development:
– Well stimulation techniques; proppants• Drilling and Field Development:
– Bits--advanced materials, controls, mechanisms; (PDC Bits)– High-temp systems; diagnostics while drilling; telemetry – Lost circulation or short circuit control materials/techniques– Liners; casings; cements
• Conversion: – Mixed working fluids in binary plants; – Variable Phase Turbines; – Enhanced Heat Rejection
• Oil & Gas: – Coproduction of geothermal energy using binary systems
• Sequestration: CO2 as a working (supercritical) fluid for EGS– Reduced power consumption in flow circulation; Reduced
viscosity/higher flow rates than water, but lower heat capacity– CO2 uptake/mineralization/sequestration at elevated temp.
EEREEERE--Supported R&D100 AwardsSupported R&D100 Awards
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