Research & Forecast Report | Q4 2014 | Dubai Education Sector | Colliers International
Research &
Forecast Report
Dubai | Education
Q4 | 2014
Dubai Education Overview Growth Potential in a Competitive Market Environment
Research & Forecast Report | Q4 2014 | Dubai Education Sector | Colliers International
Colliers International
Healthcare | Education | PPP
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CONDUCTED STUDIES FOR
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Research & Forecast Report | Q4 2014 | Dubai Education Sector | Colliers International Research & Forecast Report | Q4 2014 | Dubai Education Sector | Colliers International 3
Ian Albert
Regional Director | Middle East
Colliers International
Colliers International
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Introduction
Dubai’s private education sector offers significant
opportunities for investors / operators. The following are
some of the key contributing factors:
• High population growth rate – The population of Dubai
reached 2.2 million in 2013 from 1.3 million in 2005,
registering a CAGR of 6.7%. Current projections
anticipate the population will further increase to 3.5
million by 2020.
• Population of the UAE and Dubai mainly consists of
expatriates – The majority of the population falls between
Generation X (1965 – 1980), Generation Y (1981 – 2000)
and Generation Z (2001 – present); which translates into a
wide base of young parents and school attending
population.
• Transient nature of Dubai’s population – This has resulted
in an apparent preference for international curriculums,
due to their transferrable nature.
• High returns on private education investments – High
quality, efficient international schools could achieve 15%
– 20% net profit margins after initial stabilisation years.
• Significant growth has been witnessed within the private
education market share – Growth has been supported by
preferential shift towards international education,
generated by the national population and GCC residents.
• International operators are expressing keen interest to
establish their regional presence in Dubai – Due to the
ease of market entry, absence of bureaucracy and positive
demographic and socioeconomic indicators.
• Supply of education facilities struggles to keep pace with
the burgeoning population – A situation recognised by the
government that has introduced a number of initiatives in
the recent past to encourage the private sector to match
the shortfall and benefit from this potentially lucrative
sector.
Colliers International Dubai Private Education Overview
Q4 2014 provides a brief snapshot of the key factors
impacting the Private Education Sector and its future
outlook in Dubai.
Mansoor Ahmed
Director | Healthcare Education & PPP
Colliers International
Shehzad Jamal
Manager | Healthcare Education & PPP
Colliers International
Research & Forecast Report | Q4 2014 | Dubai Education Sector | Colliers International 4
Macroeconomic Highlights
• Dubai is one of the major contributors to the
UAE’s GDP. In 2013, GDP increased by 4.8%.
• Being perceived as a safe haven amid regional
and political unrest, Dubai has enticed
investments from abroad increasing capital flow
into the emirate.
• Given positive government initiatives and the
successful Expo 2020 bid, the economy is
forecasted to continue its forward momentum
and sustain its economic growth in the
foreseeable future.
Source: Dubai Statistics Centre, 2013
Exhibit 1: Dubai GDP by Economic Activity Economic Overview The UAE is an attractive market for investors and companies,
reinforcing its position as a leading global business hub.
• Strong and stable economic growth – while economic
growth in developed countries remains sluggish, the UAE’s
GDP is forecast to grow between 3.4% and 3.9% annually
for the next 5 years.
• Highly competitive economy – ranked 19th globally by the
World Economic Forum (WEF), and the only Arab nation
to be classified as an innovation-driven economy, attracting
companies and talent from around the world.
• An efficient country – ranked 23rd globally in The World
Bank’s ‘Ease of Doing Business’ report, due to the lack of
bureaucracy and red tape.
• Attractive labour market – relatively affordable labour, no
income tax, and 84% of Dubai’s population between the
ages of 20 years and 65 years.
• Dubai is open-minded – new brands are often introduced in
Dubai before being rolled out in the rest of the region.
• Ease of access to Dubai – Dubai has the third best air
transport infrastructure in the world according to WEF.
Being 8 hours from two-thirds of the world’s population can
turn Dubai into a regional hub for providing high quality
education by catering to the boarding student population.
Construction
Restaurants & Hotels
Transports, Storage & Communication
Social & Personal Services
Mining & Quarrying
Financial Corporations Sector
Domestic Services of Households
Others
Research & Forecast Report | Q4 2014 | Dubai Education Sector | Colliers International 5
Strong Population Growth Rate
Dubai has one of the fastest population growth rates both
regionally and internationally.
According to the Department of Statistics, Dubai’s population
stood at approximately 2.2 million at the end of 2013, registering
a CAGR of 6.7% for the period between 2005 – 2013.
Colliers International estimates that the population of Dubai is
expected to reach 3.48 million by 2020, subject to it maintaining
the current growth rate patterns. Should the projected growth rate
increase to 8% due to various recent initiatives and infrastructure
projects being under taken by the Dubai Government, then the
population is expected to reach 3.80 million by 2020.
During 2005 – 2009, just before the global financial crisis,
Dubai’s population was growing by a CAGR of 13.3% –
compared to the period following the crisis (2010 – 2013), where
the CAGR stood at 5.1%.
Increasing population, coupled with rising average income
levels, will continue to feed demand for infrastructure and
services particularly in energy, water, telecoms, technology,
housing, education, and financial sectors, which consequently
will have positive impacts on the education sector.
Exhibit 2: Dubai Historical & Projected
Population Trends (in Millions)
Source: Department of Statistics; Colliers International 2014
Demographic Overview
Image Source: Colliers web
2.2
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.4
2.5
2.7
2.9
3.1
3.3
3.5
Projected
Actual
http://www.dreamstime.com/stock-images-kids-books-image24753044 http://www.dreamstime.com/stock-images-kids-books-image24753044
Research & Forecast Report | Q4 2014 | Dubai Education Sector | Colliers International 6
The Rise of Generation X, Y & Z and its Impact on Education Demand
• Dubai’s private education sector has evolved
over the last decade to ultimately reflect
Dubai’s growing population, cultural shifts
and economic demands.
• Dubai’s demographic profile currently
illustrates a substantial population share of
residents aged 25 years – 40 years, which
indicates the forthcoming rise in demand for
primary education.
• Due to the transient nature of the expatriate
population in Dubai, parents prefer enrolling
their children within international schools,
this is mainly attributed to the pursuit of a
curriculum that is globally transferrable.
• The 2013/2014 academic year in particular
reflected the continuing recovery of the
broader economy, which should ultimately
enable families to settle for longer terms and
enroll their children into further education
cycles.
• The rise of Generation X and their dependents
from Generations Y & Z continues to dictate
the trends incorporated within the private
education sector in Dubai.
• As a result, the private education sector in
Dubai is expected to maintain a growth
pattern over the upcoming period.
Dubai’s population is heavily skewed towards males aged 25 – 40,
which is partially due to the construction workforce living in the
emirate.
Currently, 84% of Dubai’s population is in the active workforce age
group, i.e. between the ages of 20 years and 65 years.
97% of Dubai’s population is below the age of 50, and within
Generations X, Y & Z.
Exhibit 4: Dubai Population Pyramid
Source: Dubai Statistics Centre, 2014
Exhibit 3: UAE Population by Emirate and
Citizenship (%of total)
Source: Colliers International, 2014
Nationals Non-Nationals
Image Source: Colliers Template/ to be changed with appropriate image
Research & Forecast Report | Q4 2014 | Dubai Education Sector | Colliers International 7
“In the last decade, the
private education
sector has witnessed
significant growth;
doubling enrolment
figures and introducing
additional supply,
which increased the
competitive edge within
the market.”
Research & Forecast Report | Q4 2014 | Dubai Education Sector | Colliers International 8
Education Overview Exhibit 7: Total Schools in Dubai
Source: Colliers International Analysis 2014
Source: Colliers International 2014
Source: KHDA 2013, Colliers International
Analysis 2014
The Ministry of Education oversees all emirate based education councils and authorities in addition to delegating a portion of its duties, in accordance with the federal mandate as shown below:
Ministry of Education
UAE
Abu Dhabi Education Council (ADEC)
Knowledge & Human Development Authority (KHDA)
Sharjah Education Council
Ras Al Khaimah Education Zone (RAKEZ)
Ajman Educational Zone (AEZ)
Ajman Educational Zone (AEZ)
Umm Al Quwain Educational Zone (UAQEZ)
Exhibit 5: Specialised Education Authorities – UAE
Image Source: Colliers Template/ to be changed with appropriate image
Exhibit 8: Students by Sector in Dubai
• In spite of representing almost 33% of the total schools in Dubai, public schools accommodate slightly over 11% of the total student population within the Emirate (Refer to Exhibit 7 & 8).
• The Private Sector in Dubai consists of 158 schools out of a total of 235 schools operating within the emirate, which is accompanied with an apparent dominance over the total school population within the Emirate.
• The 2013/14 academic year witnessed the opening of 10 new private schools within the Emirate.
• The forces of competition, aided by the dominance of the private sector, generate an active environment for improvements to the quality of education and supporting facilities.
Private Sector Students by Curriculum
Source: KHDA 2013, Colliers International Analysis 2014
• Historically, the British curriculum has held a robust leading share in student enrollment, which corresponds with the transferable nature of the curriculum and appeals to the expatriate population residing in Dubai.
• The total number of American schools is fairly higher than Indian schools, however, Indian school enrolment is significantly higher in comparison, which is mainly driven by higher school capacities, low tuition fees and the consequent aim to increase profitability.
Exhibit 6: Student Population Breakdown by Curriculum
88.7%
11.3%
Private Public
Research & Forecast Report | Q4 2014 | Dubai Education Sector | Colliers International 9
The population of Dubai has historically maintained a correlation with the economy. In times of rapid economic growth, population increases as companies draw people from different countries to meet their workforce requirements.
The student population has also increased in tandem with the overall population and economic growth. Since 2009/2010 the student population has increased with 82,800 students in 2009/2010 reaching over 243,700 students in 2013/2014, reflecting a CAGR of 7.5%.
Over 61% of students enrolled within private schools in Dubai (Refer to Exhibit 10) are currently attending early education cycles (Foundation and Primary Stages), which is aligned with the demographic landscape identified across the Emirate.
Furthermore, the highest historical growth in student enrolment during the period 2009 and 2013 was witnessed in FS1 and FS2 grades, with a CAGR of 11.1% and 9.6% respectively.
Student enrolments witness a declining trend as they advance into further education cycles (Refer to Exhibit 9), which is mainly due to the transient nature of the expatriate population residing within the emirate.
The student population within the private education sector in Dubai is almost evenly divided between both genders, with a male representation of over 52% compared to a female representation of almost 48%.
Emirati students enrolled within private schools in Dubai have almost doubled over the past decade, signalling an increased preference of Emirati parents exposing their children to private schooling.
Source: KHDA 2013, Colliers International Analysis 2014
Exhibit 9: Private Sector Students by Grade in 2014
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
22,000
24,000
26,000
Num
ber
of S
tudn
ets
Emirati Male Emirati Female Expatriate Male Expatriate Female
Exhibit 11: Typical School Size by Curriculum
Exhibit 10: Students by Education Cycle
in Dubai
Source: KHDA 2013, Colliers International
Analysis 2014
Source: Colliers International Analysis 2014
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
2,400
2,600
13,000
18,000
23,000
28,000
33,000
38,000
Avera
ge C
ap
acit
y
Typ
ical
GF
A R
an
ge (
m2)
Typical GFA Range Average Capacity
• Colliers’ analysis illustrates that American and top end British schools typically require the largest educational facilities, which is mainly credited to the focus on offering a wider variety of services and facilities.
• Indian schools exhibit the highest student capacity, which in relation to the typical GFA range results in the lowest area ratio per student when compared to other popular curriculums (Refer to Exhibit 11)
Research & Forecast Report | Q4 2014 | Dubai Education Sector | Colliers International 10
Private Sector Manpower
The total number of teachers has also achieved high growth in line with an increase in number of students, reaching 14,333 teachers in 2013 compared to 9,611 teachers in 2007, achieving a CAGR of 8.3% (Refer to Exhibit 12)
As of the end of 2013, almost 87% of the teachers in Dubai were employed by the private sector, which is in line with the prevailing market dynamics (Refer to Exhibit 14).
Females dominate the gender share of teachers employed by the private sector in Dubai, constituting approximately 80% of the total number of teachers.
Similarly, females also represent the majority of administrative and technical staff working within private schools in Dubai with a share of almost 71% out of a total of 7,410 support staff.
The exhibit below illustrates the constant growth pattern of teachers employed within the private sector between the period 2007 and 2013.
Exhibit 12: Teachers - Historical Growth in Dubai
(2007 – 2013)
Source: KHDA 2013, Colliers International Analysis 2014
Exhibit 13: Teacher - Student Ratio in Outstanding Schools
Source: KHDA 2013, Colliers International Analysis
Source: KHDA 2013, Colliers International Analysis
• Based on the latest data available in 2013, the average student teacher ratio across private schools operating within the emirate of Dubai is recorded at 16 teachers (Refer to Exhibit 13).
• Schools that are ranked outstanding by KHDA generally have low student teacher ratios.
• However, not all outstanding schools have a student teacher ratio of below 1:13. Thereby, implying that KHDA also seeks excellence in other spheres within a school.
• Colliers’ analysis of available data shows that private schools rated as “Outstanding” in Dubai typically operate at an average of approximately 13 students per teacher.
Exhibit 14: Teachers – Public & Private
Share
Lower Student / Teacher Ratio
and Higher Tuition Fees does not
Guarantee higher Quality of
Education.
Many low tuition fee schools and
high teacher student ratio schools
have achieved an “Outstanding”
rating from KHDA implying the
importance of other factors which
has a positive impact on the
quality of education.
Research & Forecast Report | Q4 2014 | Dubai Education Sector | Colliers International 11
Tuition fees charged by private schools in Dubai vary significantly in terms of curricula, type and quality of facilities offered, and staffing standards.
Furthermore, Dubai has four (4) private schools that do not charge any tuition fees and certain private schools that charge a very nominal fee which could be as low as AED 1,725 per annum.
Whereas, a Grade 12 student enrolled at the most expensive school in Dubai is charged a tuition fee in excess of AED100,000 annually.
American schools command the highest range of tuition across private schools in Dubai, whilst IB schools attain marginally higher tuition when compared to British schools in Dubai (Refer to Exhibit 15).
Indian schools are more conscious of the tuition fee price point as they want to cater to the Indian population.
The exhibit below illustrates the average tuition range charged across the top curriculums in Dubai.
Tuition
According to DSIB’s latest evaluation report, private schools in Dubai are operating at a 90% capacity and have the capacity to enroll an additional 26,000 students across various grades prior to reaching full capacity.
Furthermore, British and Indian curriculum schools operate at the higher utilisation rates followed by the Private Ministry of Education and American curriculum schools.
Student capacity utilisation across Dubai’s private schools adopts a declining pattern, in alignment with the student population (Refer to Exhibit 9).
Source: KHDA 2013, Colliers International Analysis 2014
Exhibit 16: Private Schools Tuition by
Student Share
Exhibit 17: Capacity Utilisation by DSIB
Quality Ratings
Source: KHDA 2013, Colliers International Analysis
2014
Private Sector Capacity Utilisation
Exhibit 15: Average Tuition Range Across Dubai Private
Schools by Curriculum
Source: KHDA 2013, DSIB 2014, Colliers International
Analysis 2014
- 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000
British
American
Indian
IB
Annual Tuition (AED)
• “Outstanding” Schools in Dubai (as per DSIB rating) have proportionately fewer vacant places as compared with other private schools in Dubai (Refer to Exhibit 17).
• The highest number of student enrolment in Dubai is witnessed within “Acceptable” schools, with almost 44% of the student population within the private schooling system.
Over 59% of the student population, across all education cycles,
attending school in Dubai, pay tuition fees below AED15,000 (Refer
to Exhibit 16), which is mainly due to the high student absorption
nature of comparatively economic curriculums such as Indian,
Philippines and Pakistan.
Research & Forecast Report | Q4 2014 | Dubai Education Sector | Colliers International Research & Forecast Report | Q4 2014 | Dubai Education Sector | Colliers International 12
Key Insights &
Conclusions
By 2020 the
private education
market in Dubai
will require an
addition of 51
schools.
An approximate
annual demand
of 13 new
schools.
Research & Forecast Report | Q4 2014 | Dubai Education Sector | Colliers International 13
The private education market continues to grow in
Dubai, primarily due to demand from an increasing
expatriate base and the resultant preference towards
international curriculums, which consequently impacts
the market trends and the forthcoming supply. The key
insights are summarised below:
High Population Growth Rate
Colliers International estimates that the population of
Dubai is expected to exceed 3.5 million in 2020,
subject to maintaining the current growth patterns of
6.7% CAGR. However, should the projected growth
rate increase to 8%, due to various initiatives taken by
Dubai in the recent past, the expected population will
reach 3.8 million in 2020.
The current demographic landscape in Dubai supports
the steady development of the private education sector,
as the broader economy continues to grow over the
upcoming period.
1.32 Million in 2005
3.5 Million in 2020
Exhibit 18: Population Growth by 2020
Number of Private Sector Student
Seats in Dubai
The number of student seats in the private sector was
recorded at over 269,700 in 2013, which is expected to
increase to 315,500 in 2017, recording a CAGR of
5.5%, to reach a total of 360,000 seats by 2020, in
accordance with the strategy set by KHDA (Refer to
Exhibit 19).
269,700 student seats
in 2013
315,500 student seats
in 2017
360,000 student seats
in 2020
Exhibit 19: Dubai Private Sector Seats
Funding Options for the Private
Education Sector
A number of funding options are available to key
education players, with an option to explore being
successfully listed on regional or international
exchanges via IPOs, although none of the schools, so
far, are listed on the stock market.
Banks are also actively seeking investments within the
education sector. However, they are limiting their
investments to established players with proven track
records. Investors entering the education sector with
Greenfield projects struggle to find project finance
unless there is recourse to alternative cash flows.
Further difficulties arise with the terms offered.
Education investments are typically long term
investments contradicting banks risk appetite which
typically extends to terms between 5 – 7 years.
Typically real estate investments in the private
education sector generate yields of 9% – 11%, whilst
IRR’s for education operations range between 15% to
23%. Exploring the sales and leaseback model is an
alternative approach for established players to improve
returns through release of cash from noncore activities,
and directing capital into core business strategies, in
order to accomplish further growth.
The latest trend to obtain finance is either
through the sale of existing school buildings
to investors on a sale and leaseback basis or a
number of landlords / investors are willing to
build schools for operators to lease on a long-
term basis.
Attracting and Retaining Quality
Resources
• The major challenge facing operators is the ability
to attract and retain quality staff in order to deliver
on the promise of quality educational services.
• Operators desperate to recruit appropriate
specialised staff have prompted a trend of poaching
teachers and management staff from competitors.
• Consequently, salaries have witnessed considerable
growth in the recent past across Dubai and the UAE,
which signals an effective international recruitment
process is imperative in order to achieve operational
success.
Research & Forecast Report | Q4 2014 | Dubai Education Sector | Colliers International 14
Size of Dubai’s Private Sector
Education Market
Colliers estimates that the value of Dubai’s private
schools’ properties reached US$ 6.1 billion in 2014,
which is expected to increase to US$ 7.1 billion by
2017, and is estimated to reach over US$ 8.1 billion by
2020 (Refer to Exhibit 22).
Size of the UAE Private Sector
Education Market
Colliers estimates that the value of the private
education’s property across the UAE is projected to
reach US$ 13.0 billion in 2014 and US$ 15.8 billion in
2017. This is estimated to reach US$ 18.8 billion by
2020 (Refer to Exhibit 23).
Exhibit 24: New Investment Requirement in
the Private Sector by 2020
Exhibit 23: Size of Private Sector Education
Market in the UAE
Exhibit 22: Size of the Private Sector
Education Market in Dubai
• Property (US$ 2.0 billion) Dubai
• Property (US$ 5.8 billion) UAE*
*UAE figures include the projected investment requirement for Dubai
13.0
15.8
18.8
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
2014 2017 2020
US
$ (
Billio
n)
*Dubai’s market size is incorporated within the projection for the UAE
• According to Colliers’ analysis, the requirement for new investments within the education sector across the UAE is expected to exceed US$ 5.8 billion by 2020.
• Furthermore, Dubai’s investment requirement is projected to reach over US$ 2 billion by 2020, as the Emirate advances towards accomplishing the education strategy objectives, set by the KHDA
699,800 student seats
in 2013
847,600 student seats
in 2017
1,010,800 student seats
in 2020
Exhibit 20: UAE Private Sector Student
Seats
Exhibit 21: New Student Seats Requirement in
the Private Sector by 2020
• 77,300 Student Seats by 2020 Dubai
• 298,000 Student Seats by 2020 UAE*
*UAE requirement includes the projected demand from Dubai
Number of Private Sector Student
Seats in the UAE
The number of student seats in the UAE’s private sector
was recorded at over 699,800 in 2013, which is
expected to increase to 847,600 in 2017, and
1,010,800 seats by 2020.
Total New Seats Required by 2020
Research & Forecast Report | Q4 2014 | Dubai Education Sector | Colliers International 15
Forthcoming Market Gap for Private Schools by Curriculum - Dubai
2013/2014 2019/2020
Total Market Gap = 90,300 Student Seats by Academic Year 2019/2020
5 British
Schools
2 Indian
Schools
1 Canadian
School
Excluding
2015/2016
Confirmed
Supply
Approx.
13,000
Student
Seats
Net Market Gap = 77,300 Student Seats by Academic Year 2019/2020
Results in
Considering market dynamics & average school capacity per curriculum
British American Indian IB Others
19 Schools 10 Schools 9 Schools 2 Schools 12 Schools
During the period between 2016 and 2020, the private education market will
require an addition of 52 educational facilities across multiple curriculums,
which translates into an approximate annual demand of 13 new schools.
Key
Message
360,000 Student Seats
243,700
Students
26,000 Vacant Seats
269,700 Student
Seats
Research & Forecast Report | Q4 2014 | Dubai Education Sector | Colliers International
About Colliers International
Colliers International is a global leader in commercial real estate services, with over 13,500
professionals operating out of more than 482 offices in 62 countries. A subsidiary of FirstService
Corporation, Colliers International delivers a full range of services to real estate users, owners and
investors worldwide, including global corporate solutions, brokerage, property and asset management,
hotel investment sales and consulting, valuation, consulting and appraisal services, mortgage banking
and insightful research. The latest annual survey by the Lipsey Company ranked Colliers International
as the second-most recognized commercial real estate firm in the world.
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Copyright © 2013 Colliers International.
The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been
made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are
encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report.
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Contact Details
Mansoor Ahmed
Director | MENA Region
Healthcare Education & PPP
+971 55 899 6091
Colliers International | Dubai
Al Shafar Tower 1, Suite 1401
Dubai | United Arab Emirates
+971 4 453 7400
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