Bill Kuo
DTC Management Board Meeting
17th March 2011
AgendaChange of MB membershipDTC AOP 2011 and BudgetOptions to accommodate potential
shortfallsLooking ahead – AOP 2012 & beyondDTC MB/SAB Meeting in the fall of 2011
Change of MB membershipSteve Koch will become the next Director of
NSSL, and has stepped down from his position as the DTC Deputy Director for OAR and a member of MB, effective 16th March 2011.
Sandy MacDonald appointed Zoltan Toth as the Acting DTC Deputy Director and a member of MB, replacing Steve, until a new GSD Director is identified.
DTC AOP 2011Draft Budget and Options
Introduction DTC prepared a DRAFT AOP 2011 and budget in January 2011 DTC AOP 2011 and budget were reviewed by DTC Management
Board (MB) on 11-12 Jan 2011 DTC MB recommended:
Be prepared for a 5% reduction in the OAR DTC fundingDo not spread the cuts across all tasksProtect high-priority areas:
Tasks that are very close to demonstrating successful R2O (e.g., data assimilation and hurricane tasks)
Enhance testing and evaluation activities recommended by the DTC Science Advisory Board (SAB).
Don Berchoff asked DTC to prepare a strategy for additional 10% cut in OAR funding for AOP 2011
AFWA funding $275K less then requested – tasks under AFWA funding reduced to match actual funding
Anticipate FY2012 budget will be even worse than 2011
AOP 2011 Budget Planning Assumptions
Source Funding (in K) Status
OAR 2,850 Assumed 5% reduction
AFWA 564 Confirmed (original request $839K)
NCAR 250 Confirmed
USWRP 300 Tentative (possible 10% cut)
GSD 250 Tentative + additional SE support
NSF 100 Submit proposal for DTC Visitor Program
HFIP 455 Pending HFIP allocation decision
Allocated NCAR
carryover61 Confirmed
Allocated GSD
carryover61 Confirmed
Total 4,891
Changes in TasksGeneralized names for task areas to reflect focus area
rather than specific software packagesWRF Mesoscale ModelingHWRF HurricaneGSI Data assimilation MET VerificationDET Ensembles
Incorporated work related to NEMS into appropriate task areas (Mesoscale Modeling and Ensembles)
Incorporated work related to NOAA testbed collaborations (HMT and HWT) into appropriate task areas (Mesoscale Modeling, Verification and Ensembles) to ensure work undertaken through these collaborations contribute directly to the core DTC missions (a strong recommendation from the SAB)
AOP 2011 Tasks
Testbed collaborations: HWT & HMT
1. DTC activities focused on five key areas: Mesoscale Modeling, Hurricanes, Data Assimilation, Ensembles and Verification.
2. HWT & HMT are cross-DTC special projects that contribute to identified focus areas.
Proposed AOP 2011 Budget Allocations (in K)
Task OAR* AFWA NCAR GSD NSFUSWR
PHFIP**
NCAR Carry-over
GSD Carry-over
Total
Director’s Office
$390 - $150 $100 - - - - - $640
Visitor Program
$100 - - - $100 - - - - $200
Mesoscale
Modeling$826 $87 $50 - - $61 - - - $1,024
Hurricanes
$675 - - $100 - - $355 $61 - $1,191
Data Assimilat
ion$177 $231 - $50 - - - - - $458
Verification
$66 $246 $25 - - $188 $100 - - $625
Ensembles
$616 - $25 - - $51 - - $61 $753
Total $2,850 $564 $250 $250 $100 $300 $455 $61 $61 $4,891**Includes $100 K from HFIP for diagnostic toolkit (which is an additional task requested by HFIP in FY 2011)
Proposed AOP 2011 FTE Allocations
Task Area
Scientists/
Managers
Software
Engineers
Admin Assistan
ts
Students Total
Director’s Office 1.70 0.10 0.50 - 2.30
Mesoscale
Modeling3.19 2.18 - 0.78 6.15
Hurricanes 3.47 2.07 - - 5.54
Data Assimilati
on1.90 0.50 - - 2.40
Verification 1.00 2.30 - 0.15 3.45
Ensembles 2.00 1.11 - 0.25 3.36
Total 13.26 8.26 0.50 1.18 23.20
Funding allocation breakdown between NCAR and GSD (in K)
Task NCAR/JNT ESRL/GSD Total
Director’s Office
$526 $114 $640
Visitor Program $200 - $200
Mesoscale Modeling
$978 $46 $1,024
Hurricanes $492 $699 $1,191
Data Assimilation
$358 $100 $458
Verification $591 $34 $625
Ensembles $317 $436 $753
Total $3,464 $1,429 $4,891
Director’s Office: Proposed activitiesInternal Communication
Implement tools to assist with task and staff coordinationProvide a framework for cross-coordination between over-
lapping activities of major task areasCoordinate strategic planning activities
External CommunicationContinue making improvements to DTC websiteHost MB, EC & SAB meetings and keep open channels of
communicationDTC Visitor Program
Host visitors for 5 funded projectsPrepare a new AO & select next round of visitor projects
Provide support for upcoming workshops and tutorials
Mesoscale Modeling: Community SupportProposed Activities
Maintain/Enhance WRF regression testing*Continue on-going efforts in community support**Finish preparations of community-UPP software package for
distribution*Extensively test, write documentationProvide community support upon release
Anticipated major accomplishmentsWRF release (v3.3 April 2011)**Community-UPP version 1.0 release (April 2011)*Bi-annual WRF Tutorials (July 2011, January 2012)**Annual WRF Users Workshop (June 2011)*
-in collaboration with MMM* and EMC*
Mesoscale Model: Testing and EvaluationProposed Activities
Continue expansion of RC testing and evaluationStrengthen the foundation of DTC expertise with the NEMS
softwareCo-host with NCEP a physics workshop for mesoscale modelingUse HMT-West research datasets to evaluate precipitation
processes in operational and research modelsPrepare publications on DTC methodology and results from select
test activitiesAnticipated major accomplishments
New RC designations or retests, as appropriateFunctionally equivalent operational environment for WRF-based
systems established at the DTC to assess new NWP methodsWhite paper outlining short-term and longer-term approaches for
making significant progress toward improving physics parameterizations
Manuscript(s) submitted to appropriate peer-reviewed journal
Hurricanes: Proposed ActivitiesContinue HWRF community support.Continue HWRF code management, keeping the evolving
community and EMC versions of HWRF connected.Upgrade DTC testing suite by adding HYCOM, UPP and
ability to run high-resolution. Perform extensive testing of HWRF. Actual tests TBD -
could include changes in resolution and/or alternate physics.
Diagnostic activities: Evaluate HWRF to understand weaknesses and sources of
error. Begin assembling a diagnostic toolbox for DTC and the
community*
*Pending HFIP funding.
Hurricanes: Anticipated Major AccomplishmentsDTC HWRF Test Plan, in collaboration with EMC and
HFIP, describing plans for tests to be conducted by DTC in 2011 and a protocol for how future tests will be determined
Hurricane Tutorial in April 2011HWRF Reference ConfigurationExpanded WRF Community Code with addition of new
developments for HWRFExpanded HWRF Testing infrastructure on jet with the
addition of new components (HYCOM and high-resolution)
Input to NCEP pre-implementation decisions through HWRF testing and evaluation at DTC
Data Assimilation:Proposed ActivitiesCommunity Code
Continue to provide support for Community GSI package
Continue to maintain Community GSI repositoryCoordinate GSI Review Committee meetings and activitiesTest (and adjust if necessary) procedure for managing
R2O transition with input from GSI Review Committee
Testing and EvaluationConduct extensive tests of end-to-end system for
GSI baseline (including comparison with WRF-Var)Reassess the long term strategy for DA task
Data Assimilation:Anticipated Major Accomplishments
GSI Community CodeAnnual Community GSI Tutorial/Workshop
GSI v3.0 releaseGSI community contribution (R2O) procedure and implementation
Testing and EvaluationFinal report summarizing results of GSI and WRF-Var comparison experiments
Verification:Proposed ActivitiesMET Support
Semi-annual tutorials, expanded and improvedMET Development
Improved methods for verifying cloudsResearch on methods for verifying through timeImprovements in ensemble methods in
collaboration with DET, HWT, HMT, and HFIPExpanded capabilities of METViewerPrepare requirements document for tropical
cyclone verification tools and develop software to meet basic requirements
Verification: Anticipated Major AccomplishmentsMET Support
Improved TutorialsDemonstration of MODE enhancements for
Atmospheric River verification with HMT.MET Development
MET software releaseImproved ensemble, cloud, and time verification.
METViewer database and display releaseInitial capability to verify hurricanes
Ensembles:Proposed ActivitiesPerform testing and evaluation of cycling perturbations
techniqueContribute to next NCEP SREF implementation
Establish the capability to run different versions of NMMB under NEMSBasic capability for model perturbation module
Continue development of Ensemble testbed User Interface (EUI)
Interface with NOAA TestbedsEvaluate HMT ensemble with a focus on hydrometeorological
variablesEvaluate HWT ensemble products and establish a basic capability
for the product generation module based on the most promising techniques
Continue to engage community by co-organizing the 5th Ensemble User Workshop with NCEP
Ensembles:Anticipated Major Accomplishments
Test results and software for cycling initial perturbations
NMMB incorporated into DET under NEMSImproved Ensemble User Interface Report on HMT & HWT ensemble product evaluation
Hydromet & hazardous weather forecast productsVerification metric packages identified for hydromet &
hazardous weather (in collaboration with HMT, OHD, NCEP, etc)
Requirements and plans for the statistical post-processing, product generation, and verification modules based on community input at 5th Ensemble User Workshop
DTC Organization & AOP 2010 Tasks
WRF: WRF modeling systemWRF for Hurricanes: HWRF, HFIPGSI: Grid-point Statistical Interpolation data assimilation systemMET: Model Evaluation ToolsHMT: Hydrometeorology Testbed collaborationHWT: Hazardous Weather Testbed collaborationDET: DTC Ensemble TestbedNEMS: NOAA Environmental Modeling System
Two major functions of DTC:
A. Provide support for community systems
B. Conduct testing and evaluation of community systems for research and operations
DTC FY 2010 Budget Allocations (in $K)Task NOAA
CoreHFIP USWRP AFWA NCAR GSD NSF Total
DTC Dir. Office 373 172 100 645
Visitor Prog. 100 100 200
WRF support 593 55 50 698
HWRF 735 254 7 127 1,123
GSI 176 396 50 622
MET 92 374 21 487
HMT-DTC 300 23 323
HWT-DTC 98 50 148
DET 651 651
NEMS 173 173
Total 2,900 346 300 825 300 300 100 5,071
Comparison of AOP 2010 and 2011
AOP 2010 Tasks
AOP 2010 Budget
AOP 2011 Tasks
AOP 2011 Budget
Director’s Office
645 Director’s Office 640
Visitor Program
200 Visitor Program 200
WRF 698 Mesoscale Modeling*
1,024
HWRF 1,123 Hurricane 1,191
GSI 622 Data Assimilation
458
MET 487 Verification* 625
DET 651 Ensembles* 753
HMT 323
HWT 148
NEMS 173
5,071 4,891
*Tasks for which allocation is impacted by consolidation
HFIP Funding for DTCHFIP provided funding of $346K for DTC AOP 2010.
The funds are used primarily to support the community use of the HWRF modeling system, verification system development, and HWRF testing and evaluation.
For AOP 2011, we are requesting similar amount ($355K) for these tasks. In addition, HFIP asked DTC to take on the additional responsibility for: (i) assembling the diagnostic toolbox and (ii) making the diagnostic toolbox available to the community. We estimate the need for additional $100K for a diagnostic toolbox initial capability, which brings the total anticipated budget from HFIP to $455K.
Ensembles:Potential contributions to HFIP, NEXTGEN, & NUOPCEnsemble Testbed well positioned to contribute to multiple projectsHFIP – Collaborative development of HFIP regional ensemble
systemConduct periodic meetings with participants (up to 16 groups)Develop prototype ensemble system based on consensusCompile basic hurricane product generation algorithm package
NEXTGEN – Regional ensembles for data cubeExperimental real time CONUS SREF ensembleEmbedded fine scale CONUS ensemble for Convective Initiation (CI)
NUOPC – Support multiagency effortAssemble advanced statistical post-processing toolkit & datasets for
testingDTC Ensemble Testbed’s potential roles
Engage with / support community in prototype system developmentTesting & evaluation of prototype systemTransition to operations (outyears)
Strategy for additional 10% reductionAdditional 10% reduction in OAR funding would
reduce the overall DTC budget by another $285K.DTC will accommodate this reduction by:
Reducing community support for Mesoscale Modeling and Verification ($40 K).Reduce frequency of tutorials from twice to once per yearDiscontinue helpdesk support for NMM-E dynamic core
Reducing OAR allocation for Visitor Program ($50K)This will likely reduce NSF’s corresponding contribution by
$50KSlowing down Ensembles task ($110K)Slowing down Mesoscale Modeling & Hurricanes
tasks ($85K)
AOP 2012 and beyondIt is anticipated that FY2012 budget will be
even worse. What are the options to accommodate difficult budgets?
Seeking new funding opportunities:Within the main sponsors (NWS, OAR, AFWA,
NCAR, NSF)DET can contribute to HFIP, NEXTGEN, and NUOPC
External funding sources?There are possibility for external funding. But, this
will come with hard deliverables and additional requirements.
Focus DTC’s effort into a few key areas
Next DTC MB Face-to-Face MeetingBill Lapenta suggested having a DTC MB
solely focused on the outcome and accomplishments of DTC.
Given the budget situation, it is difficult to have too many meetings.
One possibility is to have the combined DTC MB/SAB meeting in the fall (September 2011) with expanded discussion on the outcome and accomplishments.
Feedback from DTC MB and SAB will then be incorporated into AOP 2012.
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