Distributed Power Opportunities in the Developing

World

Presentation to the Distributed Wind Energy

AssociationF. Andrew DowdyFebruary 13, 2013

The Challenge of Energy Access• 1.3 Billion people without electricity• 2.7 billion without clean cooking

facilities• Ramifications include economic

development, human health, deforestation

• Problem will persist in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia

• Additional $48 billion/year for next 20 years needed

• Problem will require private sector investment, new commercial models

What is the Value of Electricity?

Cellphone Charging, Batteries $45-50/kWh

Lighting, $6-40/kWh

Water Pumping, $1.35/kWh

Cooking, $0.07-0.13/kWh

Air Conditioning, <$0.05/kWh

How Big is the Distributed Market?

– According to IEA, universal access by 2030 requires mini-grid (<500 kW) and off-grid applications totaling:• 96 GW of solar (20% C.F.)• 33 GW of small wind power (45% C.F.)• 19 GW of biomass (60% C.F.)

Source: IEA WEO 2011

Potential for Small Wind Power

• Current Global Market* at End of 2010:– 521,000 SWT’s globally– 443 MW of combined capacity (avg.

850 W)• IEA estimate of 33 GW of off-grid

and mini-grid wind implies:– 75 times 2010 global capacity?– @100 kW = 330,000 SWT’s? – @10 kW = 3.3 million SWT’s? – @3 kW = 11 million SWT’s?

(*Based on 2012 Small Wind World Report, WWEA)

Barriers to CommercializationChallenges

• Capital Investment:– Poorest populations don’t

have capital to buy these systems outright

• Operational Management– Need to generate revenue

from very small individual sales, with low administrative costs

– Need to maintain systems (technical, security questions)

• Scale – No one is interested in a

handful of projects

Possible Solutions• Financing Schemes

– Investors available for viable projects

– Partial subsidies may be appropriate

• Sell Energy Services, not kWh• “Anchor customers”

– Schools, other government– Cell phone towers

• IT Payment Systems– Pre-pay meters– Mobile banking

• Replicable Systems– “Learning Curve” cost reduction– Provides scale

Opportunities for the Private Sector?

– Military, disaster relief applications?– Potentially hundreds, thousands of

applications

• Is there a Ray Kroc model?• Not a market for solar

panels or wind turbines,

• But a market for integrated systems

• Volume of sales key to costs and ultimate profits• Standardized systems• Distribution networks

Questions?