Brian Etherton and Zoltan Toth
DEVELOPMENTAL TESTBED CENTER (DTC)
ENSEMBLE TEAM (DET)
Acknowledgements:
Bill Kuo, Louisa Nance, Barbara Brown
June 27, 2012
WHAT IS THE DEVELOPMENTAL TESTBED CENTER?
The Developmental Testbed Center (DTC) is a distributed facility where the NWP community can test and evaluate new models and techniques for use in research and operations
Established in 2003 as a multi-agency effort
Objective
To serve as a bridge between research and operations to facilitate the activities of both halves of the NWP Community in pursuit of their own objectives
Benefits Research community gets a functionally equivalent operational
environment to test and evaluate new NWP methods in retrospective extended period tests using advanced tools
Operational community benefits from DTC testing and evaluation of strengths and weaknesses of new NWP advances prior to consideration for operational implementation
DTC ARCHITECTURE
The Developmental Testbed Center (DTC) is a distributed facility where the NWP community can test and evaluate new models and techniques for use in research and operations
DTC Director’s Office
Mesoscale Modeling
Hurricanes Data
Assimilation Ensembles Verification
DTC Visitor Program
Five Task Areas
Each task has a task lead, 2 being from NOAA, 3 from NCAR
Crossover
A number of activities (NEMS, SREF, GSI-Hybrid) span more than one
of these task areas.
DTC ORGANIZATION CHART
FORMATION OF DTC ENSEMBLE TEAM IN FY2010 Confluence of necessary ingredients
Need
Strong interest from both community & agencies
Knowledge base
Roadmap from Sept 2009 Workshop
National Workshop on Mesoscale Probabilistic Prediction at NCAR
Opportunity
Increase in funding for DTC from NOAA
Initiative
DTC Director’s Office sets planning process in motion (Oct 09)
DTC ENSEMBLE TEAM MAJOR TASKS
Develop and maintain DTC Ensemble infrastructure Establish NCEP operational system as benchmark Test and evaluate new community methods Transition successful methods to NCEP and other agencies Link up with ensemble work in other test-beds / projects
Input from DET Workshop & revived WRF Ensemble WG Close collaboration with NCEP
Link research & operational communities O2R – Operational codes and requirements from operations to research R2O – Testable techniques from research to operations
Constraints Limited funding ~ 3 FTEs
GSD & NCAR collaborative effort
No funding for research Except via very limited visitor program
Initial focus on mesoscales
INFRASTRUCTURE
Objective Assemble software and procedures to carry out main function of testing
and evaluation of community methods
Structure Six modules identified
Ensemble configuration Initial perturbations Ensemble generation – meso-specific Model-related uncertainty Statistical post-processing Products / services Use of info – general, applies to all ensembles Verification
Requirements Modularity to facilitate transition to operations Portability for ease of execution where computational resources are
available Flexibility to allow testing of new ideas
The DTC is working to
enable the infrastructure
for testing and evaluation
of promising techniques
for transition to
operations.
Applications to all the
modules shown are
invited.
Module 1:
Configuration/Workflow
Module 2:
Initial Perturbations
External
Input (Testbeds,
Operations,
Community)
Module 3:
Model Perturbations
Module 4:
Statistical Post-Processing
Module 5:
Product Generation
Module 6:
Verification
INFRASTRUCTURE
As implemented at DTC, the bias correction reduces the RMSE of 2m temperature forecasts, and the downscaling adds further improvement.
ARW and NMM members of SREF 2011 – 0900 UTC Initialization
Compared to RTMA Analyses
ACCOMPLISHMENTS
Downscaling code used in
NAEFS ported to DTC in
early summer
Testing/evaluation of the
application of this code to
the existing NCEP SREF
output showed forecast
improvement
DTC code sent to EMC for
application to the new
NCEP SREF, implemented
in approximately 2 days,
with downscaled forecasts
being produced since
December 7th
Raw SREFx, Bias corrected SREFx, and downscaled
SREFx forecasts (initialized 2100UTC 12 Jan 2012, valid
1200UTC 16 Jan 2012, 87-hour forecasts)
ACCOMPLISHMENTS
SHORT TERM PLANS
North America Ensemble Assemble software and procedures to carry out main function of testing
and evaluation of community methods Tap into NMMB workflows of EMC Tap into NMM and ARW workflows of GSD/HMT ensemble Combine to produce SREF replica
Evaluate application for prediction of heavy precipitation (HMT)
GSI-Hybrid for HWRF Testing and evaluation of components of system
Post-Processing Make use of NCEP, AFWA, and CAPS products codes
Integrate Field Alignment (Sai Ravela, MIT) into system
In consultation with NOAA/EMC, NOAA/HPC, AWC, ESRL/PSD, and
other partners, the decision was made to combine the workflows of the
NCEP-NMMB model with the workflows of the GSD/HMT ensemble
(ARW and NMM models) and run a North American domain.
• Apply lessons learned at FAB, and elsewhere, to national scale.
• Start from NCEP SREF style configuration (WRF-ARW, WRF-NMM, NMMB model cores), but test alternate initial conditions, model physics (based upon FAB/HMT work as well as community input).
• Tap into new high performance computing (zeus)
• Test domain:
9km outer, 3km inner nest.
Run time: 4 hours (240 procs: 72hr 9km / 24hr 3km)
NORTH AMERICA ENSEMBLE (SREF REPLICA)
In consultation with ESRL/PSD, AOML, HFIP, and other partners, the
decision was made to produce an experimental 27km HWRF
Ensemble Test alternate initial
conditions, model
physics (based upon
FAB work as well as
community input).
Input to ensemble data
assimilation.
Develop products from
ensemble as well.
GSI-HYBRID FOR HWRF (BASINSCALE)
DTC Ensemble Team is focused on testing and evaluation of
community developments for transition to operations
North America Ensemble framework, for possible transition to
NCEP SREF
Basinscale HWRF Ensemble framework, for possible transition to
NCEP HWRF ensemble (2014)
DTC is O2R and R2O
Initial focus on mesoscale, but focus can change over time.
Engagement with the community
This joint session – thanks for extending your stay in Boulder.
Joint workshop with NUOPC in September on ensemble design.
SUMMARY
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