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Deutsche Bank China Tour 4 March 2014
Weiming Jiang, President DSM ChinaEric Lodder, CFO DSM ChinaDave Huizing, VP Investor Relations DSM
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Safe harbor statement
This presentation may contain forward-looking statements with respect to DSM’s future (financial) performance and position. Such statements are based on current expectations, estimates and projections of DSM and information currently available to the company. DSM cautions readers that such statements involve certain risks and uncertainties that are difficult to predict and therefore it should be understood that many factors can cause actual performance and position to differ materially from these statements. DSM has no obligation to update the statements contained in this presentation, unless required by law.
A more comprehensive discussion of the risk factors affecting DSM’s business can be found in the company’s latest Annual Report, which can be found on the company's corporate website, www.dsm.com
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Overview
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• Developments in China• Update on DSM’s progress in China• Summary DSM’s FY results & outlook
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China overall developments and trends
3
• The China’s leadership made it clear that “not just growth” but sustainable growth will be a focal point in the coming years
• China recently suffers from heavy air pollution, not only in the regions, usually affected by this, but also in regions that were before hardly-effected by air pollution and often even campaigned with their healthy living standards and clean air
• This led to a very quick response and target settings by the Chinese leaders with focusses on sustainable production, reductions of energy use; compliance regarding regulations (also Food safety) and new innovative approach to upgrade the coal-based power generation industry
• China will continue the transformation of the economy where domestic consumption will play a bigger role
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China overall developments and trends - cont
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• Demographics trends like the ongoing urbanization will continue and there is uncertainty what the recently announced relaxing of the one child policy will bring:
The society is already very “used” to low birth rates in developed areas
The announced relaxed policies is not expected to immediately lead to highly increased birth rates
• Another large event is the ongoing Anti-Corruption Campaign. The Chinese leadership is continuing to focus on spending reduction by government organizations and Chinese State Owned Enterprises combined with a harsh program to reduce corruption
• In the western media the Anti-Corruption has sometime been perceived as strongly focused on Foreign enterprises but Chinese companies and State Owned Enterprises are equally reviewed in this campaign
• DSM is in China well positioned to seize the opportunities provided by these developments and trends
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China macro economic developments
5
7.7%7.8%
9.2%
10.3%
9.1%9.6%
14.2%
12.7%
11.3%
2005
2006
2007
20082009
2010
2011
2012 2013
• China’s overall 2013 GDP growth arrived at 7.7%, slightly above the government’s target of 7-7.5% and market expectations. But investment remained the main key driver while consumption was weakening and knowing that the increase of domestic consumption is a major goal of the Chinese leaders
• The key issue is: where are we going in 2014? We clearly identified different opinions/expectations
• Some economists expect China to show GDP growth figures above 8% while others find the government target of 7.5% GDP growth already a stretched target. We expect a GDP growth of at least 7%. Opportunities are reforms by boosting private investment and deregulation but risks are property price inflation and a weaker demand
2014
7.5%
2015
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China macro economic developments
6
• In the year 2014 structural reforms are expected to support several industry sectors. Private sectors might start business without government approval, unless industries are explicitly mentioned on a “negative list”
• Overcapacity in many sectors will remain and will lead to consolidation in these sectors. On the other hand many industries, like health care and new energy show significant under-capacity
• Inflation is expected to remain on modest levels around 2-3% but expecting a 2-3% appreciation of the RMB versus the US$
• Risks will be escalating geographical tension, weaker demand and the development of the real-estate pricing. China’s financial situation, related with non-performing (local) debts and the situation around shadow banking should be closely monitored
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Global GDP Outlook 2020
Source: 1. Premier Li Keqiang held a conference meeting with domestic and international reporters AHTV, Mar. 17, 2013, www.ahtv.cn2. Report World Bank 2030 & Working Team Analysis
Constraints2
• Low external demand makes export stagnant
• Over capacity in most low-end industries, investment driven not effective any more
• Aging society, labor force shrinking & cost rising
• Natural resources constrains
• A large and growing environment deficits
Direction• Sustainable growth, focus
on quality• Domestic consumption
driven• Indigenous innovation and
local players move up to more value-added sectors
• Green economy• Advocating strategic
emerging industries
“We shouldn't pursue economic growth at the expense of the environment.”
– Li Keqiang, Premier1
USA
ChinaIndia
Germany Japan
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
0% 10% 20%
CAGR 2012-2020
Percentage of World GDPSource: DB Research & IMF
2020
2012
China33%
USA14%India
7%Japan
4%Russia
4%
Others38%
China will largely contribute to world’s GDP growth from 2012 to 2020
Data source: DB Research & IMF
China’s growth outlook
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The top Key Success Factors in the fast changing and diversified China market
• Speed to market needs and responsiveness
• Cost competitive position with sustainable manufacturing footprint
• Local adopted R&D and innovation
• Commitment to local market & strong execution
• Decision making power/org/localization
• Business model transformation adapting to China market
Source: WT analysis
Privates
MNCs
SOEs
• Cutting-edge R&D• Well performed in
branding, product quality management, and productivity
• Less penetrating to the mass market
• Low responsive speed to the market/customers
• Easy access to credit at a much lower financing cost
• Political patronage• Beneficial from state-
controlled resources
• Speed-to-market & responsiveness
• Cost competitive position
• More entrepreneurial
• Less driven for innovation• Less productive in
management
• Lack of financing • Competition in
price
MNC versus State Owned and private enterprises
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Overview
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• Developments in China• Update on DSM’s progress in China• Summary DSM’s FY results & outlook
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Global societal trends drive DSM’s markets
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Population growth
Wealth
Resources constraints
Sustainability
UrbanizationHealthcare costs Energy security
Food security
Ageing population
Health & WellnessHealth & Wellness Climate & Energy
Nutrition
Global shifts
Health
Health & Wellness
Materials
Climate & Energy
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DSM has become truly global
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41% of DSM’s 2013 sales* are now sold into High Growth Economies
• Strongest contribution in growth in High Growth Economies coming Nutrition, with its third party sales to HGE growing by 25% in 2013 to ~ 45% of the clusters’ sales (was 40%)
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Strategic progress DSM in China
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DSM actively positioning itself in China to capture the opportunities provided by developments and trends
Organizational:• Regional organization strengthened including shift
towards more local executives• Taiwan will be integrated in the China organization• DSM in China is very well connected with government and
industry leaders• Strong focus on local talent development • Increased focus on local for local innovation and products• Establishing a regional innovation center • HQ of DSM Fibre Intermediates moved to Shanghai
Investments: • DSM Nanjing Chemical company (Caprolactam) 2nd line • New plants for 6-APA, SSC and Composite Resins• Ongoing Investments: Animal Nutrition Center and
vitamin B6 facilityAcquisitions• Acquisitions: ICD (HPPE), AGI (UV-curable resins),
Andre Pectin (Hydrocolloids) and premix facilities
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DSM in China: towards US$ 3bn sales
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• 2013 sales to Greater China was to US$2.0bn (US$ 1.7bn when Taiwan is excluded)
• Business in 2013 overall remained stable with:
– Strong ~ 20% sales growth in Nutrition
– Underlying growth in Performance Materials was offset by weakness in PA6/caprolactam chain. However, profitability levels in Performance Materials improved
– Sales in Polymer Intermediates sales declined due to lower caprolactam prices
– Double digit growth (from low level) of Innovation Center driven by solar
Caprolactam
0
1,500
3,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2015target
Sales to China (US$ m)
Sales per cluster (2013)
Nutrition
Performance Materials
Polymer Intermediates
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DSM in China: current locations in China
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3,400Employees42Affiliates incl.25Manufacturing sites
China HQ & R&D Shanghai
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China’s transformation supports DSM’s markets
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Source: EuroMonitor, IHS Datainsight, WT analysis
5.0004.0003.0002.0001.0000
+104%
2020
2010+10%
+43%
2010
2020
2010
2020
AgricultureAutomotive/TransportFoodConstruction
China
US
EU-15
14,00012,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,0000
Japan
China
US20202012
US$ Mil
US$ Mil
China consumer market versus US and Japan
Markets in which DSM operates
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Key market for animal nutrition
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• Attractive market:
– China is the largest meat producer in the world, producing ~ 50% of global pig meat and 18% of global poultry*
– Meat production in China continued to grow despite impact from diseases in poultry
– Market growth driven by mega trends
• DSM strongly committed to capture growth:
– DSM has strong reputation regarding quality, traceability and sustainability
– Investing in premix facilities including the acquisition of Bayer’s facility in Western China
– Building an extensive “franchise-network”
– New ANH R&D center in China
– Focus on domestic market, local-for-local, with many small / mid-sized customers
28%
17%16%
15%
19%5%
Global Meat production 2013* (volume)
China
* Source UN FAO Nov 2013
Rest of Asia Pacific
Latin America
US / Canada
Europe
Other
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Fast growing human nutrition
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• Attractive market:– Growing middle class and their needs to enhance health
through supplements – Urbanization and challenges which come along – Demand for high quality infant nutrition– Growth in general food industry and needs for high quality,
safe food premix which simplifies industries' manufacturing process
• DSM strongly committed to capture growth:– Leverage global products and acquisitions via strong
network in China (incl Martek for infant nutrition), Fortitech
– Building a China based hydrocolloids platform via Andre Pectin
– Healthy growth in all segments including Food & Beverages, Infant Nutrition, Food Specialties (savory, dairy) and Dietary Supplements
– ~ 50/50 focus on both MNC’s active in China as well as Chinese food producers
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Investments in Nutrition in China
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• 29% stake in Andre Pectin
• Sales and manufacturing of apple and citrus Pectin
• Key hydrocolloid providing texture • Annual net sales around Euro 30m
• Andre Pectin is the only significant Pectin manufacturer in Asia
• Animal Nutrition Center In Bazhou
• The center will follow high international standards focusing on Swine and Poultry
• Contribute to the China’s food safety program
• Strengthen the leadership of ANH in the Chinese market
• Premix facilities & fanchise stores
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Materials’ end-markets benefit from trends
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Automotive• China is the world’s largest car producer• Production of 18 million cars is almost
quarter of global production • According to IHS Global Insight, total
production of cars in China is expected to grow by 6% per year until 2020
• Strong drive for sustainability to combat pollution
E&E• Communication devices, incl smart phones,
tablets, expected to show continued high growth
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Investments in Materials Sciences in China
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• The Nanjing DNCC’s 2nd caprolactam line is now operational and will contributes to topline in 2014
• Doubles the Nanjing DNCC capacity for caprolactam
• Line is build according to very high energy efficiency standards and is a show case for sustainability
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• ICD produces HPPE fibre (high performance polyethylene)
• Markets in China and global are targeted with specific applications
• ICD was awarded as 2013 CCTV2 "Global High-tech”. This is a highly prestigious award for global companies leading in innovative solutions
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Another attractive emerging market: Solar
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Fast double digit growing business for DSM in China
• DSM increased production capacity of anti-reflective KhepriCoat® for solar panel cover glass
• This product boosts the efficiency of solar panels through textured surfaces that reduces the amount of sunlight that is reflected off.
• Markets for solar panels growing 10-15%/yr; KhepriCoat® is growing significantly faster
DSM Advanced Surfaces
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Supporting China’s sustainable development
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• Feike Sijbesma, our CEO, has joined the Global CEO Council (GCC) of the Chinese People’s Association for Friendship with Foreign Countries (CPAFFC). This prestigious committee, consisting of 14 CEO’s from global, leading multinational companies, will support the Chinese leadership, on several topics, including innovation, urbanization and sustainability.
• The Global CEO Council (GCC) of the CPAFFC is created to further enhance people’s friendship, further international cooperation and common development. The GCC will directly communicate with the Chinese leadership on better understanding, friendship, cooperation and common development between China and the world.
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Overview
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• Developments in China• Update on DSM’s progress in China• Summary DSM’s FY results & outlook
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Highlights
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DSM reports final 2013 results, increases dividend
• 2013 FY EBITDA substantially up to €1,314 million (2012 FY: €1,109 million)
• Q4 2013 EBITDA €316 million (Q4 2012: €243 million)
• Strong cash generation from operating activities of €889 million in 2013 (2012: €730 million)
• Dividend increase of 10% proposed to €1.65 per ordinary share (2012: €1.50)
• Share repurchase program to hedge existing option plans continues
• Target for 2014 to improve business performance to at least offset negative currency impact
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Vitamin E• Animal feed volumes have been weak in the period H2 2012 - H1 2013, putting pressure on the
supply chain for nutritional ingredients, such as vitamins (notably vitamin E where the threat of a new entrant in China added to competitive pressures)
• Lower prices in vitamin E had a negative margin impact on the Q4 Nutrition results
• Trading of vitamin E is firming and prices are starting to recover as:– Meat production is picking up since Q3’13, expecting further growth in 2014– It has become evident that the potential new entrant will most likely not be in the
market for some time No positive impact foreseen from price increases on Q1 2014 results
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Infant Nutrition
US Dietary Supplements
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• US vitamin and minerals based dietary supplements markets weakened towards end of 2013, with inventory adjustments in the retail supply chain at end of 4th quarter, as reaction to negative publications doubting certain positive effects of dietary supplements
• The dietary supplement value chain will respond with promotion actions, as well as highlighting to the general audience the benefits of dietary supplements in H1, to re-launch the category growth
• Dietary supplement markets in rest of the world have not been impacted and continue to show good growth
Food & Beverages
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Fish-oil based Omega-3• After decades of strong growth, US fish-oil based
Omega-3 market has started to decline• Increased fish-oil costs in 2013 were passed
through, leading to sharp increases in retail prices. This, combined with the prevalence of multiple negative media events, led to a volume decline of 10% in 2013
• 2/3 of DSM’s fish-oil based Omega-3 is sold to the US dietary supplements market
• Omega-3 value chain players are responding with promotion actions and launching industry wide campaigns, highlighting the vast scientific proof of positive health benefits
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Western Food & Beverages markets
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• Western food & beverages markets have been soft in recent years; consumers spent less on food
• In H2 2013 this softness started to impact growth of A-label suppliers, where DSM is particularly strong with its nutritional ingredients
• This softness for ‘A-labels’ is driven by: - consumers shifting from A-label to private label– intensified competition in the retail segment with
discounters and on-line sales gaining share, putting pressure on entire supply-chain
• ‘A-label’ producers addressing these conditions:- high number of product launches and promotional
campaigns are being planned, where in recent years the number of launches had dropped considerably
- product innovations are speeded-up at DSM’s innovation partners, with DSM also stepping up its innovation activities to support its customers
• Growth in emerging economies is driven by A-labels, tapping into the increased need for good and save quality processed foods & beverages
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Negative currency effects in 2014
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At constant January ’14 exchange rates, DSM’s EBITDA in 2014 will be negatively impacted by about €70 million, due to:
1. Less favorable hedge results from the 2013/2014 hedges versus the more favorable 2012/2013 hedges
2. Negative transaction impact from 2014 vs 2013 for the non-hedged transactions exposure:
– DSM has hedged for 2014, 50% of the net transaction exposure of Euro/US$, US$/CHF, CHF/JPY, GPB/CHF
3. Negative translation impact which increased due to the €2.8bn acquisitions in recent years outside Europe
Impact predominantly in first half of 2014 based on January FX rates
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2014 Outlook
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• For 2014 DSM takes a prudent approach, assuming the unfavorable January 2014 foreign exchange rates are maintained for the year. Furthermore, DSM assumes a continued challenging macro-economic environment, with low growth in Europe, modest growth in the US, and a slowdown in the high growth economies.
• Based on the above, DSM targets for 2014 to improve its business performance to at least offset the negative currency impact of €70 million at January 2014 exchange rates.
• Comparable EBITDA in 2013 from continuing operations after new accounting rules for Joint ventures amounted to €1,261 million.
• A restatement of 2013, following the discontinuation of DSM Pharmaceutical Products and the new accounting rules for Joint ventures, is included as an annex to this press release.
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