2011-9-13 By Xiu-Qun YANG Nanjing University 1
Xiuqun [email protected]
Institute for Climate and Global Change Research, School of Atmospheric Sciences,
Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, CHINA
Decadal Change in East Asian Monsoon Climate System: Natural Variability vs Anthropogenic Forcing
International Conference on Science and Technology for Sustainability 2011Building from Regional to Global Sustainability-Visions from Asia
September 14-16, 2011, Kyoto International Conference Center
Schematic illustrating progression from initial value problems with dailyweather forecasts at one end, and multidecadal to century projections as a
forced boundary condition problem at the other, with seasonal and decadalprediction in between
Meehl, et al. BAMS, 2009
Why emphasize the decadal change?
Natural signature vs. anthropogenic forcing
2011-9-13 By Xiu-Qun YANG Nanjing University 3
What is the observed decadal change in East Asian monsoon climate system ?
Can such a decadal change be considered as natural variability (say, the PDO’s impact)?
What is the role of increased CO2 and aerosols?
Summary
Issues
Climatological East Asian Summer Monsoon
Winter(DJF)
Summer(JJA)
Interdecadal variabilities of 9-yr running averaged precipitation in eastern China since 1900
Northern China
Yangtze River valley
Southern China
Sun, 2006
1980s
EASM Index: Standardized 850hPa and surface v-component (110 º- 125 ºE,20 º- 40 ºN)
NCEP/NCAR
ERA-40
Observed
1979-92
1993-04
1951-78
Decadal weakening of East Asian summer monsoon and southward shift of rainbelt in China
Wang, Ding, Jhun 2006 GRL
Decadal change of EASM rainfall (1948-2004) over whole East Asian domain
Post-1976 minus Pre-1976
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