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Thursday 24th February, 2005 Thursday 24th February, 2005 Week 7Week 7
Hydro-ElectricityHydro-Electricity
UK Appraisal Until 2020 and UK Appraisal Until 2020 and 20302030
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What is Hydro-Electricity?
Electricity Generated by the flow of water past turbines at the base of a dam
Here is where pressure is greatest
Why the Base?
Famous Example: Hoover Dam Colorado river, Nevada USA
Creates 4 billion Kilowatt hours per year for 1.3 million people in Nevada Arizona and California
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Hydro in the United Kingdom
Requires large upland LakesDevelopment mostly in Scotland
At present Installed capacity of Hydro in UK is 1500MWe
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2003 government white paper ‘our energy future – creating a low carbon economy’
United Kingdom Government Policy
EU Renewables Directive calls for 22% of energy in Europe to be Renewable by 2010
First annual report reaffirmed that addressing climate change was at the centre of UK energy policy
United nations Convention on Climate Change – Kyoto protocol calls for a reduction in CO² emissions to below 1990 levels
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Scottish and Southern Energy
Scottish Hydro Electric the UK’s biggest hydro generator with
1350MW capacity representing roughly 40% of whole UK renewable capacity
Currently upgrading Hydro equipment turbine rudders guide vanes and generators increasing efficiency
275MW refurbished since 2002 and another 90MW to be completed by this year. This has increased output by 5% from same amount of water
Loch Laggan Dam, West Highlands
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Environmental Implications
Austin, Texas – April 7th 1900
Hope Mills, North Carolina– May 26th 2003
Medford, New Jersey – July 19th
2004
Dam collapses in the USA
Collapses occur more often than you think with another recent event in Pakistan last week!
Collapse poses risk to human life from raging currents and debris
River Silted Up
Miles of Roads Swept Away
$6Million Repair Bill
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Environmental Implications
Hydro-electricity doesn’t produce greenhouse gases which are a cause of climate change. Unlike fossil fuel generation
Nor does it produce any of the controversy of nuclear generation
However it still involves changing the natural Environment
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Transport IssuesAs most Hydro is generated in Scotland the question is how do you get it to south east England?
PYLONS!!!
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Planning and Technical Constraints
Just how much more can exiting technology be refurbished?
What happens if the lake above the dam freezes over?
How can hydro progress in areas protected by the Government?
Small Scale Hydro only at an early stage in its development
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Storage
Dinorwig, North Wales
Electricity cannot be stored so it has to be produced at exact levels of demand
This makes Hydro the perfect generating method as it can regulate its production levels instantly
Also validates use of pump storage schemes, which use excess of peak power to pump water which is then released for generation at peak times
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Storage – Crucial Moments !!!
Final of the World Cup
At the New Wembley
England Expects
Referee Blows for Penalty shoot out as freak blizzard descends
The whole country switches on their kettles to make hot water bottles….
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AND THE GERMANS WIN AS USUAL
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Pessimistic Outcome
2020 2030
Small Scale Hydro: 250 MW
Large Scale Hydro: 500 MW
Total: 750 MW
Small Scale Hydro: 500 MW
Large Scale Hydro: 250 MW
Total: 750 MW
Large Scale Hydro Equipment rapidly reaches life expiry
Small Scale Hydro Technology slow to advance and meets strong opposition
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Optimistic Approach
2020 2030Small Scale Hydro: 750 MW
Large Scale Hydro: 2000 MW
Total: 2750 MW
Small Scale Hydro: 3000 MW
Large Scale Hydro: 2200 MW
Total: 5200 MW
Life extension work increases Large Scale Hydro capacity
Small Scale technology advances rapidly and becomes commonplace throughout UK and beyond
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Likely Outcome
2020 2030
Small Scale Hydro: 500 MW
Large Scale Hydro: 1500 MW
Total: 2000 MW
Small Scale Hydro: 1500 MW
Large Scale Hydro: 1800 MW
Total: 3300 MW
Most Large Scale Hydro will remain on line but capacity will not see large improvements
Small Scale Projects will start to appear but will meet opposition and new technical constraints
Predictions for Hydro-Electric Generating Capacity for the years 2020 and 2030
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1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2005 2020 2030
Year
Gen
erat
ing
Cap
acit
y (M
W)
Optimistic
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Energy Generated (PJ) in the Years
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Optimistic 17 21 25 30 42 57
Pessimistic 17 14 12 8 8 8
Likely 17 18 20 22 28 36
Varying Predictions of the amount of UK electricity that will be generated by Hydro-Electric generation methods for years up to 2030
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Hydro-Electric Generation Projections up to 2030
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20
30
40
50
60
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Year
En
erg
y G
en
era
tio
n (
PJ)
Optimistic
Pessimistic
Likely
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