National Technical University of Athens
(Coordinator)(Coordinator)
Tech4i2 Limited European Projects & Management Agency
University Koblenz-Landau Joint Research CentreEuropean Commission
David Osimo, Yannis CharalabidisDavid Osimo, Yannis Charalabidis
ICT 2010 Networking SessionBrussels, September 27th, 2010
Society increasingly interconnected, flexible, fast-evolving, unpredictable
Governance often silos-based, linear, obscure, hierarchical, over-simplified
Policies Health R&D Social
Disciplines
Economics
Mathematics
ICT
Actors Government
Citizens Industry
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More people involved
More accurate analytical, modeling and simulation tools
More data available
2010
2030
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Model-based Model-based collaborative collaborative governancegovernance
Data-Data-powered powered collective collective
intelligence intelligence and actionand action
Government Government service service utilityutility
Science base of ICT Science base of ICT enabled governanceenabled governance
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State of the art: State of the art: research pushresearch push
Future Future scenarios: scenarios:
demand pulldemand pullGapsGaps
GrandGrand challenges challenges (draft)(draft)
Research Research challengechallenge
ss
Research Research challengechallenge
ss
Research Research roadmap roadmap
(final)(final)
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State of the art: State of the art: research pushresearch push
Future Future scenarios: scenarios:
demand pulldemand pullGapsGaps
GrandGrand challenges challenges (draft)(draft)
Research Research challengechallenge
ss
Research Research challengechallenge
ss
Research Research roadmap roadmap
(final)(final)
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Toda’sy policy modeling:Large human effort > only on major policy decisions (e.g. REACH directive); using mainly econometric models and overlooking human behaviour; unable to account for human behavior and tipping points. Social simulation and agent-based models are marginal, black-box, fragmented and single-purpose; built by domain computational science specialist, at high cost for involving lateral domain experts or interested stakeholders. Progress in modeling software has not matched advances in computing power (Post).Designing, reviewing and updating formal models from qualitative and quantitative data is costly.
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Integrated, composable and reusable modelsmodels composability and interoperability (between software and modelling methods) to build on existing modelsShort term research: definition of procedures for composition and repositories Long term research: model interoperability and SOA / GRID
Collaborative modellingintuitive model building and simulation tools to allow all stakeholders to take part in transparent formal modelling at large scaleShort term: transparent and intuitive modelling interfacesLong-term: mass-collaboration modelling framework
Easy access to information and knowledge creation methods of information elicitation that, during the overall model building and use processes, will help decision makers to learn how a certain system works and ultimately gain insights (knowledge) and understanding (apply the extracted knowledge from those processes) in order to successfully implement a desired policy.Short-term: interoperability of data sources, information elicitationLong-term: user-behavior information generation; mass-interactive learning environments
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Model validationReliability of models plays a crucial role in policy modeling and simulation. A policy model should be developed for a specific purpose (or context) and its validity is to be determined with respect to that purpose (or context). Therefore, specific and integrated techniques and ICT tools are required to be developed for policy modeling, (conceptual and software validation )Short-term: Consolidation of validation techniquesLong-term: complex and large scale model validation; artificial intelligence incorporated in validation systems
Interactive simulation It allows a researcher to interactively control simulations and perform data analysis while avoiding many of the pitfalls associated with the traditional batch/post processing cycle. Short-term: UsabilityLong-term: Input/output system integration, Computational steering
Output analysis and knowledge synthesis the analysis and integration of feedbacks in modelling and simulation process Short-term: DOE for policy model simulation, ranking techniquesLong-term: sophisticated variance estimators, automated output analysis
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Layer Research Challenge
Collaboration and Action User-generated simulation and gaming for public actionNew institutional design for collaborative governance
Analysis and representation
Collaborative visual analytics for policy-making Peer-to-peer public opinion mining
Data collection and validation
Federated dynamic identity management Real-time, high-quality, reusable open government data Privacy compliant participatory sensing for real-time policy design and evaluation
Lisa Simpson Bart Simpson
Conversation Today 2030
Action2030 2030
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Privacy-compliant participatory sensing for real-time policy-making
Dramatically increasing the data availability for policy evaluation while maintaining privacy and ensuring policy inferenceShort term: combination of sensing with social network analysis, data quality verification, context verification; Long term: privacy by design; enhanced analytical techniques to respond to subtle events; data collaboration protocols
Real-time, high-quality, reusable open government data Simplifying and lowering costs of real-time open data publication, ensuring data quality and advanced privacy monitoringShort-term: data vocabularies; data curating tools; easy linked data publicationLong-term: on the fly data quality agreements, web of data, real-time validation and publication
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Federated dynamic identity managementNecessary to ensure trustful collaboration, federated across country, with multiple levels of security for different services, relying on authentic sources, usable in private sector context. Short-term: Dynamic user-controlled data disclosure; culturally-dependent identity systems; trust negotiationLong-term: context dependent identity management
Peer-to-peer public opinion miningThe limits of human attention, combined to the existing simple interfaces available for browsing discussion and comments, often leads to low levels of engagement and flaming wars, driving to polarisation of arguments and enhanced risks of conflicts. Short-term research: computer-generated cross-language policy corpora; algorithms for policy statistical analysis; comment recommendation algorithmsLong-term research: integration with social network analysis; audiovisual mining; peer-to-peer usable opinion mining tools;
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Intuitive, collaborative visual analytics of data for policy-makingVisual analytics is particularly effective when dealing with complex and non-predictable patterns, such as those related to assessing and anticipating public policy impact, but is not formalised in the policy contextShort-term research: Collaborative platform display; Interaction between visualization and models; Visualization infrastructures for policy modelling issues Long-term research: Bias identification; learning adaptive algorithm for users’ intent; intuitive affordable interfaces for citizens
User-generated simulation and gaming tools for public actionSimulation and serious gaming impact on personal incentives to action and showing long-term and systemic effects of individual choices, but lack open scenarios based on personal and policy decision as well as usabilityShort-term: kit-based citizens-controlled simulation and gaming; integration with policy modelsLong-term: augmented reality in policy gaming and simulation
New institutional design of collaborative governance
GC 3GC 3
GC 1
GC 2
State
Citizens
Citizens
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Present:Traditional public services have not delivered on their promise for time,
quality, cost, or overall return on investmentCitizens rarely have access to personalised services in the way they want Service design cannot tap into citizen or SME’s productivity. Services
practically remain the same as new service creation is hindered
Future:Services are converging and moving from the physical into the digital world,
universally accessible on any device from all social groupsGovernment clouds are overcoming interoperability, privacy and security
challenges and provide the base for high automation in public sectorsFuture Internet appears as a key enabler for new public service systems,
drastically altering productivity, speed, cost and overall quality
The 1-1-1 Concept:every service can be provided in one stop, one second, with one euro cost
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Ubiquitous nature: electricity is available everywhere, if you have a proper line and device to connect
Usability: it is simple to connect to electricity network, provided you have an electric device with a standard plug (different from country to country, sometimes)
Federation: you don’t really know where / how energy is created within a complex network that cross borders, sectors
Co-generation: you can be a customer and a provider, at the same time
De-regulation: although Governments set the regulations and may own some utilities, the market is competitive
Multi-channel service provision
Simplicity, interoperability, inclusion
Public Clouds
Service co-creation
Service supply deregulation
See also “6 common characteristics of service utilities (Rappa, 2004)”: Necessity, Reliability, Usability, Utilisation, Scalability and Exclusivity.
Electricity ProvisionElectricity Provision Service Service ProvisionProvision
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Digital public services value proposition for allReshape digital public services objectives, scope and means
Create a value proposition model for all stakeholders
User-driven innovation shaping Public ServicesService co-design, co-generation, mashing and deployment
Citizen generated ideas for new services
Change the “DNA” of Public ServicesCloud – based service provision, high automation, interoperability
Multichannel provision, internet of things
Services in one second, one stop, at one euro cost
Massive Public Information as a ServiceUtilisation of public information and knowledge
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Present: Although a lot of solutions are being developed and applied, there is a lack of
systematisation of the domain, hindering re-use of practices, gradual refinement and evolution
Relations with neighboring domains are not explored, resulting in unnecessary duplications or lack of cooperation
Future: ICT-enabled governance is maturing into a well-established discipline,
integrating social sciences, management, operational research and ICT Classification of research approaches, applications, problems and solution
paths supports gradual evolution The research community is constantly updating the objectives and
challenges of the domain, utilising new ICT developments for the good of the society
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Time
Impact
External Enhancement & Exploration
PopularisationWave 3
Industrial quality solutions. Communication and marketing towards broader communities. Substantiation of value.
Development and Extension
Internal Enhancement & Exploration
Wave 2Stabilisation of models and tools. Population of solution scenaria. Impact assessment and simulation. Training curriculum.
Concept Formulation
Foundational Principles Wave 1Ability to identify and describe problems and solutions. Research community establishment. Convergence on initial concepts.
TodayBrussels, September 27th, 2010 21
Formal methods and tools for categorising and analysing the concepts, the problems and solution paths in ICT-enabled governance
Metrics and assessment models, Decision Support, Modelling & Simulation Tools (supporting problem-solution relation, utilising BPM/BPR tools, vertical approaches)
Multi-disciplinary issues and relations with neighbouring domains
Continuous evolution of the domain to meet new societal challenges
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Today: rank the research challenges by adding post-its; add new ones.
Until October 15th: rank and comment online via crossroad.uservoice.com Full draft roadmap available and commentable online at www.crossroad-eu.net
November 30th: publication of final roadmap
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