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K D W > 8 4 4
Lredtg`o @ew Cdlts j` tme Orju`f_my tme Fgpajkdtgl \uroe Ld``jt WetXrjfule d ^eogj`da \jautgj` g` Dcomd`gstd`
D \ M A E W B . V E A A G \
\e`gjr Dssjlgdte, Ldr`eoge E`fjwke`t cjr G`ter`dtgj`da Xedle
E @ F J _ K E @ V C J ^ G @ V E ^ @ D V G J @ D A X E D L E
XJAGLW
N^GEC
74LD^@EOGE
\ U K K D ^ W Datmjuom ked`g`ocua ljjperdtgj` g` tme reogj` surrju`fg`o Dcomd`gstd` gs jc vgtda gkpjrtd`le, gt mds nee` eausgve
nelduse Dcomd`gstd`s iey `egomnjrs mdve sgo`gfflld`tay fgveroe`t dgks. E`og`eerg`o d sullesscua reogj`da sjautgj`
wjuaf requgre tme U`gtef \tdtes tj cu`fdke`tdaay trd`scjrk egtmer tmese dltjrs jnbeltgves jr tmegr fjkg`d`t strdteoges.
Dlmgevg`o tme adtter kdy prjve kjre cedsgnae, kjst lrulgdaay vgs--vgs Xdigstd`.
Vme reogj`s mgstjry jc fgsljrf gs kdg`ay rjjtef g` tme trjunaef readtgj`smgp netwee` Dcomd`gstd` d`f Xdigstd`.
Datmjuom Xdigstd`s g`vjaveke`t g` Dcomd`gstd` gs ljajref ny gts rgvdary wgtm G`fgd, gts readtgj`s wgtm Dcomd`gstd` dre d
oejpjagtglda lmdaae`oe g`fepe`fe`t jc G`fgd nelduse jc gts cedrs jc fgsjrfer daj`o gts wester` njrfers, tme u`wealjke
gfed jc Xdsmtu`gstd`, d`f d readtef aj`o-std`fg`o njrfer fgspute.
Xdigstd`s redltgj` tj tmese prjnaeks mds j`ay exdlerndtef tmek. Ds Gsadkdndf, ny suppjrtg`o tme Vdagnd` g`suroe`ly,
mds sjuomt tj exerlgse prepj`ferd`t, gc `jt jverwee`g`o, g`ue`le jver Idnuas strdteogl lmjgles, gt mds edr`ef Idnuas
fgstrust, feepe`ef tme Idnua@ew Feamg pdrt`ersmgp, d`f g`lredsef tme rgsi tj gts readtgj`s wgtm _dsmg`otj``jt tj
ke`tgj` tmredte`g`o tme agves jc U.\. d`f jtmer ljdagtgj` cjrles jperdtg`o g` Dcomd`gstd`.
Fespgte wgfespredf suppjrt g` Dcomd`gstd` cjr e`fg`o tme wdr tmrjuom d `eojtgdtef settaeke`t gc pjssgnae, tme Dcomd`
Vdagnd` aedfersmgp gs u`agieay tj lj`sgfer relj`lgagdtgj` u`aess gt gs cdlef wgtm tme prjspelt jc lj`tg`uef ajsses jc tme
ig`f sustdg`ef ds d resuat jc ljdagtgj` kgagtdry jperdtgj`s g` >848. D reogj`da sjautgj` gs sgkgadray u`agieay ds aj`o dsDcomd`gstd` d`f gts `egomnjrs, g`laufg`o G`fgd, perlegve Gsadkdndf ds ne`t j` mjafg`o Idnua g` d lmjig`o eknrdle.
\javg`o tmese prjnaeks ages neyj`f tme ldpdngagty jc Dkergld` fgpajkdly, d`f rgomt `jw eve` jc tme prjkgsef
fgpajkdtgl suroe. Vme nest mjpe cjr prjoress ages g` lj`tg`ug`o kgagtdry dltgj` tj dater tme redagtges j` tme orju`f
tmereny g`fulg`o tme Vdagnd` tj lj`sgfer relj`lgagdtgj`, wmgae sgkuatd`ejusay `eutrdagzg`o tme Xdigstd`g strdteoy tmdt gs
lurre`tay preve`tg`o d reogj`da sjautgj`.
Vj g`lredse tme prjndngagty jc kgagtdry sulless, mjwever, Xresgfe`t Jndkd wgaa `eef tj cjroj tme pjagtgldaay ldaluadtef
frdwfjw` jc ljkndt trjjps tmgs sukker d`f g`stedf dllept tme dfvgle jc mgs ffleaf ljkkd`fers tj kdg`tdg` tme adroest
pjssgnae lj`tg`oe`t `elessdry cjr tme ljkg`o ldkpdgo` g` edster` Dcomd`gstd`. Mdrf d`f u`pdadtdnae ds gt kgomt ne cjr
tme presgfe`t, tmgs ljurse daj`e jccers d sjautgj` tmdt wgaa prjtelt tme rele`t odg`s g` Dcomd`gstd` d`f dfvd`le Dkergld`
g`terests jver tme aj`o terk.
8/6/2019 Creating New Facts on the Ground: Why the Diplomatic Surge Cannot Yet Produce a Regional Solution in Afghanistan
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> LD^@EOGE XJAGLW N^GEC
U.\. pjaglykdiers oe`erdaay doree tmdt d
reogj`da sjautgj` gs esse`tgda cjr d sulless-
cua selurgty trd`sgtgj` g` Dcomd`gstd`. Wet
tmere gs lj`sgferdnae fjunt dnjut wmdt sulm
d sjautgj` wjuaf e`tdga, gts prgjrgty readtgvetj jtmer g`struke`ts, d`f wmetmer gt ljuaf
eve` ne vgdnae. Fespgte tmese u`lertdg`tges,
tmere gs strj`o lj`vgltgj` tmdt _dsmg`otj`s
trd`scer jc fece`se respj`sgngagtges tj Idnua
wgaa requgre gts iey `egomnjrs tj suppjrt d`
g`ter`da relj`lgagdtgj` wgtm tme Vdagnd` sj
ds tj e`dnae d pjagtglda prjless tj prjkjte
pedle d`f stdngagty g` Dcomd`gstd`, ds tme
dfkg`gstrdtgj`s >848 revgew pmrdsef gt.
Sgewef g` retrjspelt, tme dfkg`gstrd-tgj`s yedr`g`o cjr d reogj`da sjautgj` tj tme
Dcomd` wdr mds nee` e`furg`onut mds
dasj suntay kutdtef. _me` Xresgfe`t Ndrdli
Jndkd tjji jle, tme quest cjr selurg`o
`egomnjray ljjperdtgj` tj fecedt da-Tdefd
d`f tme Vdagnd` wds frgve` ny mgs ojda jc
oettg`o Dcomd`gstd` rgomt jr, g` jtmer wjrfs,
jc wg``g`o tmgs rgomt wdr g` tme Dkergld`
struooae dodg`st terrjrgsk. Mgs Kdrlm >887
DcXdi revgew laedray ekpmdsgzef tmgsjnbeltgve. Vwj yedrs adter, me gs stgaa seeig`o
d reogj`da ljkpdlt. Nut `jw, frgve` ny tme
lj`vgltgj` tmdt Dkergld` g`vjaveke`t ld`-
`jt ne jpe`-e`fef, me gs mjpg`o tj dvjgf oet-
tg`o Dcomd`gstd` wrj`o jr, g` jtmer wjrfs,
tj dvert ldtdstrjpmgl fgsjrfer ds U.\. kgagtdry
cjrles neog` tj aedve tme lju`try.
Datmjuom tme reogj`da dpprjdlm mds tmus
survgvef ds d perkd`e`t ljkpj`e`t jc tme
dfkg`gstrdtgj`s strdteoy, tme pjagtglda gkper-
dtgves frgvg`o gt mdve lmd`oef rdfgldaay. gs
rdgses d lrgtglda questgj`2 Ld` tme reogj`da
dpprjdlm feagver ljjperdtgj` jwwme` daa
tme `egomnjrg`o stdtes d`tglgpdte Dkerglds
exgtgc gt ljuaf `jt prjfule oe`ug`e lja-
adnjrdtgj` edragerwme` Dkerglds ljkkgt-
ke`t seekef kjre e`furg`o: U`ferstd`fg`o
tmgs gssue gs lrgtgldanecjre tme dfkg`gstrd-
tgj` ekndris j` kjre e`eroetgl fgpajkdly
g`te`fef tj prjfule tme reogj`da settaeke`
tmdt wgaa dvjgf cdgaure g` Dcomd`gstd`.
_MW MD\ D ^EOGJ@DA
\JAUVGJ@ NEE@ \J EAU\GSE:ere gs agttae fjunt tmdt ked`g`ocua reogj`
ljjperdtgj` wjuaf e`md`le tme prjspelts cj
Dkergld` sulless g` Dcomd`gstd`. ^eogj`
ljjperdtgj` kdy eve` ne gkperdtgve cjr d
eeltgve trd`scer jc selurgty respj`sgngagtge
tj Idnua. Ds tme dfkg`gstrdtgj` e`vgsdoes g
tme wdr g` Dcomd`gstd` wgaa e`f `jt tmrjuo
d kgagtdry vgltjry nut j`ay d pjagtglda settae
ke`t, wmglm wjuaf prjkgse refulef vgj
ae`le g` Dcomd`gstd` d`f tmereny edse tmtdsi cdlg`o Dcomd` cjrles sadtef tj tdie prj
oressgveay oredter respj`sgngagty cjr e`surg`
fjkestgl jrfer. e prjspelts cjr sulm d
doreeke`t wjuaf fepe`f j` fflrst dlmgevg`
relj`lgagdtgj` dkj`o tme Dcomd`s tmek
seavesg`laufg`o tme Vdagnd` aedfersmg
d`f gts kd`y lj`ceferdtes, tme adroer Xdsm
tu` pjpuadtgj`, jtmer etm`gl orjups, d`f, j
ljurse, tme `dtgj`da ojver`ke`t gtseac.
gs prjless, tmjuom fgluat, wjuaf nedsef lj`sgferdnay gc Idnuas `egomnjrs wer
tj, ds \elretdry jc \tdte Mgaadry Lag`tj` pu
gt, respelt Dcomd`gstd`s sjverego`ty, wmgl
ked`s doreeg`o `jt tj pady jut tmegr rgvd
rges wgtmg` gts njrfers, d`f tj suppjrt relj`
lgagdtgj` d`f ejrts tj e`sure tmdt da-Tdef
d`f tme sy`fgldte jc terrjrgsk gs fe`gef sdc
mdve` everywmere. G` suppjrt jc tmgs vgsgj`
Lag`tj` feladref tmdt tme U`gtef \tdte
wjuaf kju`t d fgpajkdtgl suroe tj kjv
tmgs lj`glt tjwdrf d pjagtglda jutljke tmd
smdtters tme daagd`le netwee` tme Vdagnd` d`
da-Tdefd, e`fs tme g`suroe`ly, d`f meaps t
prjfule `jt j`ay d kjre stdnae Dcomd`gstd
nut d kjre stdnae reogj`.
_mdtever tme kergts jc tmgs mjpe cj
reogj`da ljjperdtgj`, tmey fj `jt e`sur
tmdt gt wgaa eve`tudaay kdtergdagzeeve`
tme U`gtef \tdtes g`vests oredt fgpajkdtg
Dsmaey B. Veaags gs d se`gjr
dssjlgdte dt tme Ldr`eoge
E`fjwke`t cjr G`ter`dtgj`da
Xedle, spelgdagzg`o g`
`ter`dtgj`da selurgty, fece`se,
d`f Dsgd` strdteogl gssues. _mgae
j` dssgo`ke`t tj tme U.\.
Fepdrtke`t jc \tdte ds se`gjr
dfvgser tj tme u`ferselretdry
jc stdte cjr pjagtglda dccdgrs, me
wds g`tgkdteay g`vjavef g`
`eojtgdtg`o tme lgvga `ulaedr
doreeke`t wgtm G`fgd.
Xrevgjusay me wds ljkkgssgj`ef`tj tme Cjrego` \ervgle d`f
servef ds se`gjr dfvgser tj tme
dkndssdfjr dt tme U.\. Ekndssy g`
@ew Feamg. Me dasj servef j` tme
@dtgj`da \elurgty Lju`lga stdcc ds
spelgda dssgstd`t tj tme presgfe t
d`f se`gjr fgreltjr cjr \trdteogl
Xad``g`o d`f \jutmwest Dsgd.
Veaags gs tme lj-dutmjr jc
`terpretg`o Lmg`ds Ord`f
\trdteoy2 Xdst, Xrese`t, d`f Cuture
(>888). Me gs resedrlm fgreltjr jc
tme \trdteogl Dsgd prjordk dt tme
@dtgj`da Nuredu jc Dsgd`
^esedrlm d`f lj-efgtjr jc tme
seve` kjst rele`t d``uda
vjaukes, g`laufg`o tmgs yedrs
\trdteogl Dsgd >848-442Dsgds
^gsg`o Xjwer d`f Dkerglds
Lj`tg`uef Xurpjse.
Vme dutmjr wgsmes tj tmd`i Xeter
Dustg`, Bdli Ogaa, Fd` Kdriey,
essgld Kdtmews, Oejroe
Xerijvglm, Sd`le \erlmui, d`f
severda reogj`da d`f U.\.
ojver`ke`t jcffllgdas wmj
requestef d`j`ykgty cjr tmegr
tmjuomtcua ljkke`ts.
DNJUV VME DUVMJ^
8/6/2019 Creating New Facts on the Ground: Why the Diplomatic Surge Cannot Yet Produce a Regional Solution in Afghanistan
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L^EDVG@O @E_ CDLV\ J@ VME O^JU@F 884 d`f >88>, dre, tj put gt padg`ay
tryg`o tj kdie d ljkendli. ey dre seeig`tj restjre tme ruae tmey e`bjyef g` Dcomd`gstd
crjk 4773 tj >884, wme` tmey gkpjsef jrfe
tmrjuom cjrle aeogtgkdtef ny d mdrsm lj`ser
vdtgsk tmdt reljo`gzef `egtmer u`gversda rgom
`jr equdagty jc tredtke`t.
gs pjagtglda systek gs rebeltef ny kjs
Dcomd`s tjfdy d`f, tmjuom tmere gs wgfe sup
pjrt cjr e`fg`o tme wdr tmrjuom d `eojtgdte
settaeke`t gc pjssgnae, `egtmer tme Xdsmtu`
`jr tmjse kg`jrgtges wmj suppjrt tme Dcomdojver`ke`t wjuaf lju`te`d`le d`y dlljr
tmdt wjuaf ogve tme g`suroe`ts fgrelt dlles
tj pjwer u`aess tmey fflrst re`ju`lef vgjae`l
were wgaag`o tj ne testef ny d` eaeltjrda prj
less, d`f fekj`strdtef sjke ljkkgtke`t t
tme Lj`stgtutgj`. Nelduse tme Vdagnd` mdv
`egtmer d`y use cjr sulm `gletges `jr d nur`g`
fesgre tj g`teordte wgtm tme reogke j` tme ad
ters terks, d ljkprjkgse mds prjve` neyj`
redlm. Curtmerkjre, ds aj`o ds tme Tuett\murd rekdg`s lj`vg`lef tmdt tme g`ter`d
tgj`da ljdagtgj` gs medfef cjr d` grrevjldna
exgt, tme elessgty cjr ljkprjkgse neljkes aes
uroe`t nelduse tjtda vgltjry seeks g`evgtdna
j`le tme puppet reogke g` Idnua gs feprgve
jc gts cjrego` prjteltjrs. Cg`daay, tme sd`ltud
ges jeref ny Xdigstd` tj tme Vdagnd`wmer
tmegr iey ldfres ld` mgfe, pad`, jrod`gze, d`
reffltprjvgfe aulrdtgve fgsg`le`tgves tj ljk
prjkgse. D`f ds aj`o ds ^dwdapg`fg prjtelttme iey Vdagnd` aedfers crjk daagef kgagtdr
cjrles, tmere gs `j redsj` wmy tmey smjuaf n
g`terestef g` d`y lj`lgagdtgj` wme`, ny d`
jnbeltgve dssesske`t, tmey mdve nee` sergjusa
fdkdoef nut `jt yet lj`lausgveay fecedte
(see tdnae 4).
gs adst ljkpj`e`t nrg`os tme reogj`
dpprjdlm d`f relj`lgagdtgj`tme twg` pg
adrs jc tme Jndkd dfkg`gstrdtgj`s trd`sgtgj
Kjst Dcomd`s seei tj kdg`tdg` rjnust
readtgj`s wgtm G`fgd ds d mefoe dodg`st
tme tmredts pjsef ny Xdigstd`, wmglm
gs see` ds tme oredter fd`oer tj
Dcomd`gstd`s `dtgj`da g`terests.
8/6/2019 Creating New Facts on the Ground: Why the Diplomatic Surge Cannot Yet Produce a Regional Solution in Afghanistan
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L^EDVG@O @E_ CDLV\ J@ VME O^JU@F ?
4. Vme felag`g`o ecceltgve`ess jc pjpuadtgj` g`tgkgfdtgj`D\\E\\KE@V2Vme oredtest odg`s g` refulg`o Vdagnd` g`tgkgfdtgj` mdve nee` wgt`essef g` Id`fdmdr9 u`tga tmese
exte`f kjre nrjdfay tj tme =8 iey terrdg` fgstrglts g` Dcomd`gstd`, tme \murd wgaa resgst tme lj`lausgj` tmdt gts
kgagtdry ldkpdgo` gs cdgag`o.
>. Fetergjrdtg`o jrod`gzdtgj`da ljmesgj`D\\E\\KE@V2Vmere gs evgfe`le tmdt ljdagtgj` kgagtdry jperdtgj`s g` >848 mdve lredtef cedr, fgskdy, d`f vdlgaadtgj`
dkj`o Vdagnd` cjjt sjafgers d`f ljkkd`fers g` njtm Dcomd`gstd` d`f Xdigstd`. D kulm smdrper dlleaerdtgj` jc
tmgs tre`f wgaa ne esse`tgda necjre tme \murd lj`laufes tmdt lj`tg`ug`o resgstd`le gs u`sustdg`dnae.
848, tme
prgkdry ljkndt kdtergdasskdaa drks, dkku`gtgj`, d`f expajsgvesdre stgaa creeay dvdgadnae g`sgfe Dcomd`gstd`
jr g` Xdigstd`.
6. Fepaetg`o dlless tj ffl`d`lgda resjurlesD\\E\\KE@V2Vme prgkdry sjurles jc Vdagnd` ffl`d`le rekdg` cjrego` lj`trgnutgj`s, drljtgls, d`f ajlda tdxes9 j`e
jc tmese sjurles mds yet nee` sunstd`tgdaay u`ferkg`ef ny ljdagtgj` jperdtgj`s.
5. Ajsg`o terrgtjrgda lj`trja g` tme Xdsmtu` dredsD\\E\\KE@V2Datmjuom tme Vdagnd` lj`trja aess tmd` d qudrter jc Dcomd`gstd`s fgstrglts (d`f d` eve` skdaaer crdltgj`
jc gts pjpuadtgj`), tme Vdagnd` prese`le g` tme Xdsmtu` medrtad`f mds nee` sgo`gfflld`t. ^ele`t ljdagtgj` jperdtgj`s
mdve sajway neou` reversg`o Vdagnd` lj`trja, nut tme stgaa-agkgtef `ukner jc trjjps dvdgadnae gkpages tmdt d smdrp
sustdg`efreversda gs stgaa cdr dwdy.
3. Xaukketg`o jperdtgj`da ecceltgve`essD\\E\\KE@V2_mgae tme Vdagnd`s jperdtgj`da ecceltgve`ess mds frdkdtgldaay felredsef g` sjke pdrts jc Dcomd`gstd`
g` Idnua d`f gts e`vgrj`s, cjr exdkpaegts dngagty tj lj`fult dssdssg`dtgj`s, gkprjvgsef expajsgve fevgle dttdlis,
d`f suglgfe njkng`os mds `jt felredsefd`f wgaa g`lredsg`oay neljke d sunstgtute cjr terrgtjrgda lj`trja.
?. G`lredsg`o persj`da fd`oers tj \murd aedfersD\\E\\KE@V2Iey aedfers jc tme Vdagnd` dmndrg \murd (aedfersmgp lju`lga) wmj lj`trja tme cu`ltgj`da ljkkgttees jr
tme reogj`da \murd jperdtgj`s rdreay trdvea tj jr g`sgfe Dcomd`gstd`9 ds aj`o ds tmey rekdg` sdce u`fer prjteltgj`
ny G`ter-\ervgles G`teaagoe le g`sgfe Xdigstd`, tmey cdle cew persj`da fd`oers tmdt wjuaf kjtgvdte expajrg`o
relj`lgagdtgj`.
=. Ajsg`o pjagtglda reaevd`le njtm g`sgfe d`f jutsgfe Dcomd`gstd`D\\E\\KE@V2Vme prjspeltgve ajss jc pjagtglda sdage`le wjuaf ne tme strj`oest pjssgnae kjtgvdtgj` cjr Vdagnd`relj`lgagdtgj . Datmjuom wedie`ef ny ljdagtgj` kgagtdry jperdtgj`s, tme dnse`le jc d` dater`dtgve Xdsmtu`
aedfersmgp tj tme Vdagnd` d`f tme g`lredsg`o gkpjrtd`le dlljrfef tj tme Vdagnd` ny fgslussgj`s dnjut
relj`lgagdtgj mdve nequedtmef gt wgtm lj`tg`ug`o reaevd`le, fespgte tme Vdagnd` neg`o tme kjst gkpjrtd`t lduse
jc Xdsmtu` ldsudatges tjfdy.
7. Orjwg`o expeltdtgj`s jc d ljdagtgj` exgt crjk Dcomd`gstd`D\\E\\KE@V2Vme strj`oer tme Vdagnd` neagec tmdt tme ljdagtgj` wgaa fepdrt Dcomd`gstd`, tme strj`oer gts fgsg`le`tgves
tj lj`sgferg`o relj`lgagdtgj`9 datmjuom tme prese`le jc cjrego` trjjps fjes kjtgvdte resgstd`le g` sjke fgstrglts,
tme perleptgj` tmdt tme ljdagtgj` wgaa exgt Dcomd`gstd` g` >846 lredtes oredt g`le`tgves tj eslmew relj`lgagdtgj`
d`f jutadst G`ter`dtgj`da \elurgty Dssgstd`le Cjrle (G\DC) g` tme quest tj reljver lj`trja g` Idnua.
_ME@ _JUAF VME VDAGND@ LJ@\GFE^ ^ELJ@LGAGDVGJ@:Vme Tuettd \murd gs agieay tj lj`sgfer relj`lgag`o wgtm tme Dcomd` ojver`ke`t wme` tme
cjaajwg`o `g`e vdrgdnaes g` tmegr tjtdagty dater sucffllge`tay tj gts fgsdfvd`tdoe. Datmjuom tme
ljdagtgj` mds fgsruptef tme g`suroe`ly lj`sgferdnayds tme d`daysgs mere suooeststme Vdagnd`
dre `jt yet sucffllge`tay cdgag`o tj kdie relj`lgagdtgj` d pdrtgluadray dttrdltgve exgt strdteoy.
VDNAE 4
8/6/2019 Creating New Facts on the Ground: Why the Diplomatic Surge Cannot Yet Produce a Regional Solution in Afghanistan
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= LD^@EOGE XJAGLW N^GEC
strdteoyg`tj vglgjus ljaagsgj`. Xdigstd`s red-
sj`s cjr prjteltg`o tme Vdagnd` kdy ne rdtgj-
`da g` terks jc gts jw` seac-g`terest, nut tme
`et eelt gs tj stre`otme` Idnuas lj`vgltgj`
tmdt ^dwdapg`fg j`ay seeis tj curtmer wedie`tme Dcomd`s d`f selure tmegr sunjrfg`dtgj`
ny fgvgfg`o tmek. Kjst Dcomd` eagtes neageve
tmdt gc tme g`suroe`ly were tj ne feprgvef jc
gts Xdigstd`g sd`ltudry, gt wjuaf egtmer rdpgfay
fgssgpdte jr e`f g` d `eojtgdtef settaeke`t j`
tme reogkes terks9 tmdt gt mds jt tmus cdr fj`e
sj, fespgte tme ljdagtgj`s supergjr resjurles,
j`ay suooests tj tmek tme feptms tj wmglm
Xdigstd` wgaa oj tj jnstrult Dcomd` u`gty d`f
aedve Idnua prjstrdte. G` sulm lgrlukstd`les,
Dcomd` aedfers mdve eve` wedier gkpetus tj
padldte Gsadkdndf d`f strj`oer redsj`s tj reay
j` jtmers, sulm ds @ew Feamg d`f _dsmg`otj`,
tj `eutrdagze wmdt dre see` ds Xdigstd`s kdadfflfe g`te`tgj`s tjwdrf tmegr lju`try.
VME J@AWMD^F_DW JUV2
OGSE _D^ D LMD@LELuttg`o tmrjuom tme Ojrfgd` i`jt g`tertwg`-
g`o relj`lgagdtgj` d`f tme reogj`da sjautgj`
mds tmus cdr prjvef neyj`f tme ldpdngagty
jc Dkergld` fgpajkdlycjr ojjf redsj`.
_metmer tmrjuom persudsgj` jr eve` oe`er-
jus g`fuleke`ts, _dsmg`otj` sgkpay ld`-
`jt e`sure egtmer d` Dcomd` dlljkkjfdtgj`
tj Xdigstd`g g`terests (`dkeay, dlleptg`o tme
Furd`f Ag`e d`f ebeltg`o G`fgd crjk Dcomd`-
gstd`) jr d Xdigstd`g re`u`lgdtgj` jc gts kjst
eeltgve ndrodg`g`o lmgp (tme Vdagnd` g`sur-
oe`ts)nelduse edlm sjautgj` u`ferkg`es
egtmer Idnuas jr ^dwdapg`fgs ljre g`terests.
Kjre fgdajoues, g`ter`dtgj`da lj`cere`les,
d`f kefgdtgj` ejrtseve` d fgpajkdtgl
suroewgaa `jt nrgfoe tmgs fgvgfe, neldus
aed`g`o j` Dcomd`gstd` tj dllept sunjrfg`d
tgj` vgs--vgs Xdigstd` gs u`te`dnae, wmgae tm
Xdigstd`g kgagtdry ld``jt ne persudfef tj sdl
rgfflle tme Vdagnd` ds aj`o ds gts pdrd`jgd cjrlegt tj mjaf cdst tj tmdt jptgj`.
G` prg`lgpae, mjwever, tmere gs d wdy jut2 U.\
kgagtdry jperdtgj`s g` Dcomd`gstd`. Oe`er
Fdvgf Xetrdeus lurre`t ldkpdgo` jers tm
jppjrtu`gty tj `eutrdagze tme kjst festdngagz
g`o eaeke`ts jc Xdigstd s lurre`t strdteoy d`f
ny exte`sgj`, tj dgf tme prjless jc g`ter`da rel
j`lgagdtgj`wmglm, gc sullesscua, ljuaf lredt
tme prelj`fgtgj`s cjr d cuture Dcomd`Xdigstd
rdpprjlmeke`t d`f oredter reogj`da stdngagtyCjr tmgs prjspelt tj mdve d`y lmd`le jc sulles
mjwever, tme G`ter`dtgj`da \elurgty Dssgstd`l
Cjrle (G\DC) g` Dcomd`gstd` kust ne dnae t
ljkpaete wmdt gt mds gkpressgveay neou`2 fel
kdtg`o tme Vdagnd` d`f tmegr jperdtgj`da ldpd
ngagty g`sgfe Dcomd`gstd`.
Datmjuom Xetrdeus mds wgseay felag`ef tj sul
lukn tj tme tekptdtgj`s jc trgukpmdagskm
mds stdtef, cjr exdkpae, tmdt tme kjke`tuk
dlmgevef ny tme Vdagnd` g` Dcomd`gstd` sg`l>885 mds nee` drrestef g` kulm jc tme lju`tr
d`f reversef g` d `ukner jc gkpjrtd`t dreds,
nut wmgae tme selurgty prjoress dlmgevef jve
tme pdst yedr gs sgo`gfflld`t, gt gs dasj crdogae d`
reversgnaetme trutm jc tme kdtter gs tmdt m
cjrles, g` tme wjrfs jc Crefergli Idod` d`
Igkneray Idod`, fgf u`prelefe`tef fdk
doe tj tme g`suroe`ly wgtmg` Dcomd`gstd` g
>848. us Dkergld` cjrles mdve g`glte
pdg` dt aeveas tmdt tme Tuettd \murd d`f gtXdigstd`g prjteltjrs fj `jt yet cuaay ljk
preme`frd`og`o crjk laedrg`o terrgtjrge
pmysgldaay lj`trjaaef ny tme Vdagnd`, tj erd
g`o g`ter`da sdce mdve`s d`f suppjrt zj`es, t
festrjyg`o e`jrkjus drks ldlmes d`f cdltjrge
kd`ucdlturg`o gkprjvgsef expajsgve fevgle
tj felgkdtg`o tme g`suroe`lys kgfaevea ljk
kd`f eaeke`t (wmglm cu`ltgj`s ds tme ay`lm
pg` netwee` tme Vdagnd`s smdfjw ojver`jrs
Dkergld` cjrles mdve g`gltef pdg` dt aeveas
tmdt tme Tuettd \murd d`f gts Xdigstd`g
prjteltjrs fj `jt yet cuaay ljkpreme`f.
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L^EDVG@O @E_ CDLV\ J@ VME O^JU@F 7
d`f tme fflomtg`o rd`i d`f fflae). e aedfersmgp
g` Tuettd mds respj`fef tj tmese ajsses ny
pressg`o gts fflomters tj retur` tj Dcomd`gstd`
edrager g` tme yedr tmd` usuda d`f ny fekd`f-
g`o kjre suglgfe njkng`os, tdroetef dssdssg-`dtgj`s, d`f ejrts tj g`tgkgfdte tme pjpuad-
tgj`, ljaadnjrdtjrs, d`f ojver`ke`t jlgdas.
D`f tme Xdigstd g kgagtdry mds redltef tj G\DC
sullesses ny dfkj`gsmg`o tme ojver`ke`t jc
Dcomd gstd` tj lj`tekpadte relj`lgagdtgj` j`
gts terks nelduse jc tme lertdg`ty jc eve`tuda
Dkergld` cdgaure.
Fespgte tmese u`ferstd`fdnae redltgj`s,
tme nest kedsure jc G\DCs sulless rekdg`s
`egtmer tme odg`s kdfe ny tme U.\. kgagtdrytmrjuom gts u`gadterda jperdtgj`smjwever
gkpressgve`jr tme fgsdrrdy d`f reneaagjus-
`ess `jw vgsgnae g`sgfe Vdagnd` rd`is nut
rdtmer tme `ukerjus aedfs neg`o prjvgfef
ny jrfg`dry Dcomd`s tj tme selurgty cjrles,
wmglm g` every ldse mdve resuatef g` sulless-
cuaay tdroetg`o g`suroe`t ljkkd`fers, tmegr
dlljkpagles, d`f tmegr wdr kdtrgea. Gc tur`g`o
tme tgfe g` d` g`suroe`ly gs nest presdoef ny
tme ajlda pjpuadtgj`s lmd`og`o ajydatges, tme`G\DCs >848 jperdtgj`s g` Id`fdmdr d`f gts
e`vgrj`s prjvgfe tme nest mjpe. gs gs bust ds
weaa, nelduse gc Xetrdeus cdgas g` Dcomd`gstd`,
d relj`lgagdtgj` wgaa g`feef e`f tme lj`glt,
nut gt wgaa ne tme ljdagtgj` tmdt relj`lgaes wgtm
tme Vdagnd` rdtmer tmd` tme jtmer wdy drju`f.
D kgagtdry stdaekdte wgaa j`ay ne kdrog`daay
netter, nelduse datmjuom gt kdy ljkpea `eoj-
tgdtgj`s tj neog`, tmese pdraeys dre u`agieay tj
e`f sullesscuaaytme usuda jutljke g` kjst
g`ter`da wdrsogve` tme persgste`t cedr j`
njtm sgfes dnjut mjw d`y doreef-j` settae-
ke`t wjuaf ne e`cjrlef wme` `egtmer j`e
e`bjys d kj`jpjay jc cjrle.
e sullesscua exte`sgj` jc G\DC jperd-
tgj`s tj Ajyd Xditgdpad``ef cjr adter g`
>844 jr >84>wjuaf, g` lj`trdst, prjvgfe
curtmer redsj` cjr Xdigstd` tj revgew tme wgs-
fjk jc persgstg`o wgtm gts lurre`t odkngt jc
suppjrtg`o tme Vdagnd` lj`ceferdly dodg`st tme
Dcomd` stdte. gs strdteoy rekdg`s se`sgnae
j`ay ds aj`o ds gt gs sullesscua. Nut gc G\DC gs
dnae tj u`ferkg`e gt `jt ny jvertay dttdli-
g`o tme sd`ltudrges g` Xdigstd` nut rdtmer ny
eagkg`dtg`o tme kgfaevea ljkkd`fers d`f
tmegr dljaytes wmj fflomt wgtmg` wdaig`o fgs-
td`le jc tmegr mjkeswmgae tme ojver`ke`t
jc Dcomd`gstd` wed`s tme aukpe` re`t-d-
Vdagnd` j tme ndttaeffleaf tmrjuom d vgojr-
jus reg`teordtgj` prjordk, redlmes jut tj
ds kd`y se`gjr d`f reogj`da eaeke`ts jc tme
Tuettd \murd ds gt ld` egtmer g`fepe`fe`tay jr
tmrjuom tme ojjf jles jc jtmer stdtes (tmussjwg`o fgsljrf g` Vdagnd` rd`is wmgae g`lreds-
g`o tme fgssj`d`le netwee` tme Vdagnd` d`f
Xdigstd`), d`f lj`oedas tme ekerog`o spagt
netwee` tme Mezn-g-Gsadkg (Ouanuffg`) d`f
tme Vdagnd`^dwdapg`fg ljuaf ne cjrlef tj
redssess tme wjrtm jc mjafg`o j` tj wmdt gs
`jt j`ay d wdstg`o dsset nut dasj j`e tmdt e`fs
up stre`otme`g`o tme Dcomd`G`fgd` dssjlgd-
tgj` wmgae crdyg`o Xdigstd`s jw` tges wgtm tme
U`gtef \tdtes.^gomt `jw, _dsmg`otj` gs dfkgttefay
cdr crjk tmgs mdppy bu`lture. Nut sullesscua
G\DC kgagtdry jperdtgj`s`jt fgpajkdly
stgaa mjaf tme nest prjkgse jc sulless cjr njtm
tme relj`lgagdtgj` d`f tme reogj`da sjautgj`
cjr wmglm tme Jndkd dfkg`gstrdtgj` yedr`s.
J`ay eeltgve kgagtdry dltgj` ld` lredte `ew
cdlts j` tme orju`f. D`f relj`lgagdtgj` d`f
reogj`da ljjperdtgj` wgaa j`ay ne pjssgnae
^dwdapg`fg ljuaf ne cjrlef tj redssess
tme wjrtm jc mjafg`o j` tj wmdt gs `jt
j`ay d wdstg`o dsset nut dasj j`e tmdt
e`fs up stre`otme`g`o tme Dcomd`G`fgd`
dssjlgdtgj` wmgae crdyg`o Xdigstd`s jw`
tges wgtm tme U`gtef \tdtes.
8/6/2019 Creating New Facts on the Ground: Why the Diplomatic Surge Cannot Yet Produce a Regional Solution in Afghanistan
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48 LD^@EOGE XJAGLW N^GEC
wme` tme jppjsgtgj s strdteoges lmd`oe g`
respj`se tj tmese cdlts. gs prjpjsgtgj` wjuaf
`jt ne true gc tme Vdagnd` aedfersmgp were tj
suffe`ay d`f u`gadterdaay ledse gts g`suroe`ly,
gc tme Dcomd` ojver`ke`t were tj u`expelt-efay dlqugesle tj Xdigstd`g g`terests, jr gc tme
Xdigstd`g kgagtdry were tj dnruptay reag`qugsm
gts fesgre tj lj`trja Idnuas lmjgles. Mjwever,
tmese jutljkes dre daa gkpadusgnae d`f g`ldpd-
nae jc neg`o e`oe`feref tmrjuom fgpajkdly.
Dkergld` fgpajkdts kust tmerecjre ne
pdtge`t. ey kust persgst nut ne lj`te`t
wgtm skdaa odg`s g` tme g`tergk, wmgae pre-
pdrg`o cjr tme kjke`t wme` relj`lgagdtgj`
d`f d reogj`da sjautgj` kgomt neljke truay
vgdnae. (Cgoure 4 adys jut d `jtgj`da rjdf kdpgaaustrdtg`o tmgs prjless.) Vjwdrf tmgs e`f,
_dsmg`otj s pjaglykdiers smjuaf fflrst cjlus
j` repdgrg`o tmegr readtgj`smgp wgtm Xresgfe`t
Idrzdg d`f j` `eojtgdtg`o d ked`g`ocua strd-
teogl pdrt`ersmgp doreeke`t wgtm Idnua. e
cjrker wgaa ne esse`tgda cjr tme sulless jc daa
ljdagtgj` e`fedvjrs g` Dcomd`gstd` furg`o tme
`ext cew yedrs. D`f tme adtter gs elessdry njtm
tj `eutrdagze Vdagnd` d`f Xdigstd`g expeltd-
tgj`s jc U.\. dnd`fj`ke`t, wmglm bustgcy
tmegr lj`tg`ug`o ejrts tj lj`trja Idnua, d`f
tj redssure Idrzdg jc lj`tg`uef U.\. suppjrt,
wmglm wjuaf ekpjwer mgk tj g`vest g` ojjf
ojver`d`le tmrjuomjut Dcomd`gstd` rdtmer
tmd` lj`le`trdtg`o kereay j` survgvg`o.
Neyj`f tmese gkkefgdte, lrgtglda ojdas,
mjwever, U.\. fgpajkdly smjuaf lj`le`-
trdte j` u`ferstd`fg`o wmdt tme Dcomd`s
truay wd`t. D`f tmgs ked`s expd`fg`o tme
lj`versdtgj`tdaig`o, `jt `eojtgdtg`o
neyj`f tme ojver`ke`t g` Idnua tj g`lauf
tme Xdsmtu`s dt adroe, ds weaa ds kg`jrgtges d`
lgvga sjlgety orjups. J`le d pjte`tgda lj`se`
sus gs fgsler`efdssukg`o tmere gs j`eDkergld` fgpajkdts juomt tj meap tme ojver`
ke`t tj recjrk tme lurre`t Dcomd` pjagtgld
systek d`f tj lrdct pjaglges tmdt ld` suppjr
relj`lgagdtgj`, eve` ds tmey e`odoe tme reogj`
stdtes tj suppjrt tmese Dcomd` ojdas. Nut wmd
tme U.\. dfkg`gstrdtgj` smjuaf `jt ne fjg`
`jw gs kdig`o g`fepe`fe`t jvertures tj tm
Vdagnd`, wmglm wjuaf `jt j`ay ne renue
ny tme Tuettd \murds se`gjr kekners nu
dasj, kjre fd`oerjusay, feepe` tme spagt wgtXresgfe`t Idrzdg9 fekjrdagze tme Dcomd` stdt
bust wme` lju`terg`suroe`ly sullesses dr
neljkg`o vgsgnae9 reg`cjrle Xdigstd`s gkpe
tus tj mjaf j` eve` kjre tgomtay tj gts prjx
ges9 d`f rdttae jtmer reogj`da dltjrs, agie G`fg
wmjse ljjperdtgj` gs `elessdry cjr ffl`da sul
lessdaa wmgae kdig`o tme U`gtef \tdtes ajj
kjre fesperdteay crd`tgl tmd` gs wdrrd`tef
Nelduse dttekpts tj cjrle egtmer relj`lgagdtgj
jr d reogj`da sjautgj` tmrjuom fgpajkdly dr`jw agieay tj cdga, tmey ljuaf kdie dlmgevg`
tmese jutljkes eve` mdrfer adter j`.
Fespgte tme Jndkd dfkg`gstrdtgj`s lu
re`t g`lag`dtgj`s, tme fgpajkdtgl suroe tmere
cjre smjuaf stgaa tdie selj`f padle tj tme kga
tdry ejrtdt aedst cjr d wmgae aj`oer. Neldus
tme pdg`cua rjdf tj relj`lgagdtgj` ld` n
cju`f j`ay tmrjuom sullesscua kgagtdry dltgj`
tme dfkg`gstrdtgj`s kdg` tdsi juomt tj n
resjauteay suppjrtg`o Xetrdeus d`f mgs fflomtg`ljmjrt sj tmdt tmey ld` sulge`tay dater tm
redagtges j` tme orju`f g` Dcomd`gstd tj kdi
d `eojtgdtef pedle pjssgnae. gs ked`s tmd
Jndkd smjuaf cjroj tme pjagtgldaay ldaluadte
frdwfjw` jc ljkndt trjjps tmgs sukker d`
g`stedf dllept tme dfvgle jc mgs ffleaf ljk
kd`fers tj kdg`tdg` tme adroest pjssgnae lj`
tg`oe`t `elessdry cjr tme ljkg`o ldkpdgo` g
edster` Dcomd`gstd`. Mdrf d`f u`pdadtdnae d
\ullesscua G\DC kgagtdry jperdtgj`s`jt
fgpajkdlystgaa mjaf tme nest prjkgse
jc sulless cjr njtm tme relj`lgagdtgj`
d`f tme reogj`da sjautgj` cjr wmglm tme
Jndkd dfkg`gstrdtgj` yedr`s.
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L^EDVG@O @E_ CDLV\ J@ VME O^JU@F 44
tmgs ljurse kgomt ne cjr tme presgfe`t, gt daj`e
jers d sjautgj` tmdt prjtelts tme rele`t odg`s
g` Dcomd`gstd` d`f dfvd`les Dkergld` g`ter-
ests jver tme aj`o terk.
Ve Ldr`eoge E`fjwke`t fjes `jt tdie
g`stgtutgj`da pjsgtgj`s j` punagl pjagly gssues9
tme vgews represe`tef mere dre tme dutmjrs jw`
d`f fj `jt `elessdrgay reelt tme vgews jc tme
E`fjwke`t, gts std, jr gts trustees.
G`fgdU.\.-G@-OG^JDe`odoeke`t
Grd` JtmersU.\.-DC Lj`tdltOrjupe`odoeke`t
Xmdse Dcomd`gstd`^epdgr U.\.-Idrzdgreadtgj`smgp d`f `eojtgdteU.\.-DC \trdteoglCrdkewjri Doreeke`t
Feveajp g`ter`da lj`se`susj` relj`lgagdtgj` (ojdas) G`trd-Xdsmtu`, kg`jrgtges,
d`f lgvga sjlgety fgslussgj`Dlleaerdte reg`teordtgj`Dgf spagts dkj`o Vdagnd`lj`ceferdtes
G
GG
Gkpaeke`t g`ter`dalj`se`sus j` relj`lgagdtgj`(ked`s) Xjagtglda ^ecjrk, Dk`esty,
FF^
^ecjrk DC Dssgstd`le Feveajp DC Elj` \trdteoyG`gtgdte iey fgslussgj`s OG^JD-Vdagnd` OG^JD-XI
U.\.-XI-OG^JDfgslussgj`
U.\. lj`suatdtgj`wgtm LD^s,^ussgd, I\D
DooressgveG\DCKgagtdryJperdtgj`sLj`tg`ue
U.\.Aedfs^eogj`daFgslussgj`s
XjssgnaeG\DCLeds
ecgre
U@Jversees^eogj`daFgslussgj`s
GGG
^elj`lgagdtgj` netwee`OG^JD-Vdagnd`Jutag`efGkpaeke`tdtgj` jcDk`esty & FF^ neog`s
Xdigstd`U.\.-XIe`odoeke`tg`te`fef tj smdpeXIs ojdas d`f
strdteoy g` DC
U.\.-XI fgslussgj`tj suppjrtOG^JD-Vdagnd`doreeke`t
U.\.-G@ fgslussgj`tj suppjrtOG^JD-Vdagnd`doreeke`t
U@-G@ fgslussgj` U@-G^ fgslussgj`s U@-^eogj`dafgslussgj`s
G\DC Kgagtdry Jperdtgj`s Wgeaf \uccglge`t Jperdtgj`da \ulless g` Dcomd`gstd`
U.\.-G@ fgslussgj`U.\.-G@-OG^JDfgslussgj`
U.\.-G@ fgslussgj`tmrjuom DCLj`tdlt Orjup
G`fepe`fe`tOG^JD-G@
fgslussgj`s
G`fepe`fe`tOG^JD-G^
fgslussgj`s
G`fepe`fe`tOG^JD-I\Dfgslussgj`s
U.\.-OG^JD-XI-G@-G^-LD^s Oudrd`tee ^elj`lgagdtgj` Doreeke`t netwee` OG^JD d`f Vdagnd` u`fer U@ Duspgles/Lj`cere le
IEW2DC, Dcomd`gstd`9 LD^s, Le`trda Dsgd` ^epunagls9 FF^, fgsdrkdke`t, fekjngagzdtgj`,
d`f reg`teordtgj`9 OG^JD, ojver`ke`t jc tme Gsadkgl epunagl jc Dcomd`gstd`9 G@, G`fgd9
G^, Grd`9 G\DC, G`ter`dtgj`da \elurgty Dssgstd`le Cjrle9 I\D, Ig`ofjk jc \dufg Drdngd9 XI,
Xdigstd`9 U@, U`gtef @dtgj`s9 U.\., U`gtef \tdtes.
D @JVGJ@DA ^JDF KDX CJ^ ^ELJ@LGAGDVGJ@D@F EOGJ@DA E@ODOEKE@V
CGOU^E 4
>844 Ldr`eoge E`fjwk
cjr G`ter`dtgj`da Xedle. Daa
reservef.
8/6/2019 Creating New Facts on the Ground: Why the Diplomatic Surge Cannot Yet Produce a Regional Solution in Afghanistan
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Vme Ldr`eoge E`fjwke`t cjr
G`ter`dtgj`da Xedle gs d prgvdte,
`j`prjfflt jrod`gzdtgj` fefgldtef
tj dfvd`lg`o ljjperdtgj`
netwee` dtgj`s d`f prjkjtg`o
dltgve g`ter`dtgj`da e`odoeke`t
ny tme U`gtef \tdtes. Cju`fef g`
4748, gts wjri gs `j`pdrtgsd` d`f
fefgldtef tj dlmgevg`o prdltglda
resuats. Vme E`fjwke`t
lurre`tay pgj`eerg`o tme fflrst
oajnda tmg`i td`imds jperdtgj`s
g` Lmg`d, tme Kgffae Edst, ussgd,
Eurjpe, d`f tme U`gtef \tdtes.
Vmese fflve ajldtgj`s g`laufe tme
le`ters jc wjraf ojver`d`le
d`f tme padles wmjse pjagtgldaevjautgj` d`f g`ter`dtgj`da
pjaglges wgaa kjst feterkg`e
tme `edr-terk pjssgngagtges cjr
g`ter`dtgj`da pedle d`f elj`jkgl
dfvd`le.
www.Ldr`eogeE`fjwke`t.jro
CU^VME^ ^EDFG@O
Sgsgt www.Ldr`eogeE`fjwke`t.jro/puns cjr tmese d`f jtmer punagldtgj`s.
^elj`lgag`o _gtm tme Vdagnd , Dsmaey B. Veaags, Ldr`eoge E`fjwke`t cjr G`ter`dtgj`da
Xedle, Dprga >887.
Fecg`g`o \ulless g` Dcomd`gstd`, Crefergli _. Idod` d`f Igkneray Idod`, Dkergld`
E`terprgse G`stgtute d`f G`stgtute cjr tme \tufy jc _dr, Bd`udry >844.
^ekdris dt tme Adu`lm jc tme Dsgd \jlgetys \erges jc ^glmdrf L. Mjanrjjie Kekjrgda
Dffresses, Mgaadry ^jfmdk Lag`tj`, Cenrudry >844.
Vestgkj`y j` tme \gtudtgj` g` Dcomd`gstd`, Oe`erda Fdvgf Xetrdeus d`f Kglmae
Cajur`jy, Vestgkj`y necjre tme \e`dte d`f Mjuse Drkef \ervgles Ljkkgttees,
Kdrlm >844.
Gs d eogj`da \trdteoy Sgdnae g` Dcomd`gstd`:Dsmaey B. Veaags d`f Drjjp Kuimdrbg, efs.,
Ldr`eoge E`fjwke`t cjr G`ter`dtgj`da Xedle, Kdy >848.
L^EDVG@O @E_
CDLV\ J@ VME
O^JU@F
4??7 Kdssdlmusetts Dve`ue, @_
_dsmg`otj`, FL >88
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