CoPS has built SinoTERM: a Chinese multi-regional model based on TERM
To investigate issues such as:• regional development planning
• food security
• trade policy
• national/provincial financial relations
• energy/greenhouse policy
• internal migration
• cost/benefit analysis of transport infrastructure
China is the countrymost suited to TERM
• Big: 30+ provinces
• Regional Issues
• Environmental problems
• Important inland and hinterland regions
• A tradition of planning
• Fairly good technical and data resources
Advantages of TERM framework for modelling China
• The only way to model 30+ regions “bottom-up”
• A data strategy which preserves commodity detail and delivers results in finite time.
• Simulation-specific commodity aggregation to suit particular issues
• Allows detailed representation of transport costs– Better roads in Anhui increase trade between Henan
and Zhejiang.
Xinjiang
Tibet
Mongolia
Qinghai
Sichuan
Heilongjiang
Gansu
Yunan
Guangxi
Hunan
Shaanxi
Jil in
Hubei
Hebei
Guangdong
Guizhou
Jiangxi
Henan
Shanxi
Shandong
Liaoning
Anhui
Fujian
Zhejiang
Jiangsu
NingxiaHui
Hainan
Beijing
Tianjin
Shanghai
Chongqing
.
535.55 (minimum)599.05634.67 (median)775.551324.82 (maximum)
Income of Urban Households by Region, 2004
30+ is a large number of regions for a CGE model
Income from port activity servicing
other regions
Regional Income
differences
Transport costs
Regional differences in industrial
structure
Climate change
Features of SinoTERM
• Database: size 31 provinces x 137 sectors
• Based on 2002 Input-Output table, with agriculture disaggregated by CoPS
• And using a variety of regional data
• For simulations, usually aggregated to approx 31 provinces x 45 sectors
More Features of SinoTERM
• 2 household types: Rural and Urban
• Future Improvements: additional equations and data to model:– more detail in energy and agriculture sectors– labour migration– direct taxation– transfers between provincial and central government
CoPS seeks Chinese partners:
• able to participate in model-building process, by gathering data and suggesting best modification of TERM equations to Chinese priorities.
• able to locate funds either from Chinese or foreign sources.
CoPS has no independent funding to pursue this project.