Airline Market OverviewA perspective from the 30 to 120-seat segment
Airline Market OverviewA perspective from the 30 to 120-seat segment
Oct/2010Oct/2010
Paulo Cesar de Souza e SilvaExecutive Vice President Airline Market
Paulo Cesar de Souza e SilvaExecutive Vice President Airline Market
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
This presentation includes forward-looking statements or statements about events or
circumstances which have not occurred. We have based these forward-looking
statements largely on our current expectations and projections about future events and
financial trends affecting our business and our future financial performance. These
forward-looking statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and assumptions, including,
among other things: general economic, political and business conditions, both in Brazil
and in our market.
The words “believes,” “may,” “will,” “estimates,” “continues,” “anticipates,” “intends,”
“expects” and similar words are intended to identify forward-looking statements. We
undertake no obligations to update publicly or revise any forward-looking statements
because of new information, future events or other factors. In light of these risks and
uncertainties, the forward-looking events and circumstances discussed in this
presentation might not occur. Our actual results could differ substantially from those
anticipated in our forward-looking statements.
Forward Looking StatementForward Looking Statement
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
� Air Transport Industry Review
� ERJ 145 Family
� E-Jets Family
� Market Outlook 2010-2029
� Product Development
ContentsContents
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
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IATA: “Air traffic strong demand continues,
but recovery enters second slower phase”
7.4% 1.6 % -3.5%
Source: IATA (Sep/10)
6.4%
Air Transport Demand - IATAAir Transport Demand - IATA
World – International RPK Growth Rate (% yoy)
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
IATA: strong recovery in 2010 and slight slowdown in 20112010F net profit of US$8.9bi, up from US$2.5bi projected in last June forecast
Source: IATA (Sep/10 ; ICAO 1995-2008 and IATA 2009-11)
Net Profit/Loss (US$ billion)
Region 2009E 2010F 2011F
Africa - 0.1 0.1 0.0
Asia Pacific - 2.7 5.2 3.0
Europe - 4.3 - 1.3 0.0
Latin America 0.5 1.0 0.6
Middle East - 0.6 0.4 0.3
NorthAmerica
- 2.7 3.5 1.4
World - 9.9 8.9 5.3-18
-15
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3
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F
Ne
t P
rofi
t/L
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s (
US
$ B
illio
n)
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1
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Ne
t M
arg
in (
%)
Net Profit Net Loss Net Margin
Airline Financial Results - WorldAirline Financial Results - World
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010F
2012F
2014F
2016F
2018F
2020F
2022F
2024F
2026F
2028F
Wo
rld
Re
al
GD
P &
RP
K (In
de
x 1
97
8=
10
0)
RPK
ICAO Forecast Jun/10
GDP
Gulf
War
Slo
wdo
wn
& S
ep
11th
.
Iraq
War
& S
AR
S
Fin
ancia
l C
risis
Source: ICAO (1978-2009) and The Economist
Demand recovery ���� better than expected
Despite crisis, air transport demand will increase in the mid-long term
Oil
Crisis
5.5
% C
AGR
2010
-202
9
4.5% C
AGR 2010-2029
RPK Avg. Annual Growth
1978-2009: 5.0%
1998-2009: 5.1%
Air Transport Demand vs. EconomyAir Transport Demand vs. Economy
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
Air Transport Industry Review - SummaryAir Transport Industry Review - Summary
Recovery of market demand – better than expected
Weak revenue environment, but with signs of improvement
Continuous efficiency improvement and cost reductions
Limited aircraft financing resources
More consolidations & mergers and fewer start-ups
Long term growth in air transport demand despite crisis
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
The 50-Seater MarketERJ145 – the backbone of the hub-and-spoke system
The 50-Seater MarketERJ145 – the backbone of the hub-and-spoke system
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
ERJ 145 Family Order Book ERJ 145 Family Order Book
Firm orders Deliveries Firm Backlog
ERJ 135 108 108 0
ERJ 140 74 74 0
ERJ 145 708 704 4
Total 890 886 4
as of Sep 30th, 2010
(*) Includes only commercial segment
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
Dec 1998Dec 1998
Dec 1999Dec 1999
Aug 2000Aug 2000
Mar 2001Mar 2001 Sep 2001Sep 2001 May 2003May 2003
Dec 1996Dec 1996
First DeliveryFirst Delivery
May 2002May 2002 Feb 2005Feb 2005May 2004May 2004
1,000+ ERJ 145 Platforms Delivered1,000+ ERJ 145 Platforms Delivered
Sep 2007Sep 2007
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
Pre-Owned ERJ TransactionsPre-Owned ERJ Transactions
Nearly 170 pre-owned ERJ transactions since 2000
61 ERJ transfers in the 2008-09 period
BMI – United Kingdom
FinnComm - Finland
Satena - Colombia
Athens Airways - Greece
Trans States - USA
Dniproavia - Ukraine
City Airline - Sweden
Republic - USA
Passaredo - Brazil
Aeromexico Connect - Mexico
Diexim Expresso - Angola
SEAA - Angola
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
RJ50 Market TrendsRJ50 Market Trends
RJ50 feeder is fundamental to support US hub and spoke system
US Regionals trend towards higher capacity aircraft (75 seater)
due to Scope Clause relaxation
Secondary markets will keep expanding with pre-owned RJ50s
moving to CIS, Mexico, Africa and South America
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
E-Jetshelping airlines to be more efficient
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
E-Jets Family Order BookE-Jets Family Order Book
Firm Orders Deliveries Firm Backlog
EMBRAER 170 191 180 11
EMBRAER 175 173 130 43
EMBRAER 190 457 301 156
EMBRAER 195 95 60 35
Total 916 671 245
as of Sep 30th, 2010
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
12%
23%
33%
18%
14%13%
8%
23%
15%
41%
Asia Pacific / China
Middle East / Africa
Europe/CIS
Latin America
North America
E-Jets Worldwide DistributionE-Jets Worldwide Distribution
Customers Firm Orders
Diversified customer-base across five continents
Increased presence in emerging markets with established carriers
Source: Embraer (Sep/10)
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
E-Jets Deliveries: approaching 700 unitsE-Jets Deliveries: approaching 700 units
jan
feb
mar
ap
rm
ay
jun jul
aug
sep
oct
no
vd
ec
jan
feb
mar
ap
rm
ay
jun jul
aug
sep
oct
no
vd
ec
jan
feb
mar
ap
rm
ay
jun jul
aug
sep
oct
no
vd
ec
jan
feb
mar
ap
rm
ay
jun jul
aug
sep
oct
no
vd
ec
jan
feb
mar
ap
rm
ay
jun jul
aug
sep
oct
no
vd
ec
jan
feb
mar
ap
rm
ay
jun jul
aug
sep
oct
no
vd
ec
jan
feb
mar
ap
rm
ay
jun jul
aug
sep
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
100thOct 20051st
Mar 2004
200thDec 2006
300thOct 2007
20052004 20072006 2008
400thMay 2008
500thDec 2008
2009 2010
600thSep 2009
Sep/2009
700
671
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
E-Jets: same efficiency ���� different business modelsE-Jets: same efficiency ���� different business models
Network Low CostRegional
Source: Embraer (Jun/10 - Sirte Oil, GECAS, Jetscape and M1 Travel not presented)
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
Leasing companies supporting E-JetsLeasing companies supporting E-Jets
Leasing and financial companies commitment in the E-Jet program
1
34
9
13
17
19
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
AAM Gbmh
Aircraft
Asset
Management
MARUTA
INDUSTRIES
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
E-Jets Family CommonalityE-Jets Family Commonality
Airlines are exploring the E-Jets family concept.
High commonality in systems, parts and crew qualification.
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
E-Jets Main Applications “by design”E-Jets Main Applications “by design”
Natural evolution for existingNatural evolution for existing5050--seat marketsseat markets
RightRight--sizing of low loadsizing of low load--factor factor
narrownarrow--body flightsbody flights
New market opportunities through New market opportunities through
lower risk and flexibilitylower risk and flexibility
Replacement of old and Replacement of old and
inefficient jetsinefficient jets
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
14%
57%
North America
20%50%
6%
40%
Europe/CIS
31%
49%
Latin America
29%
60%
Africa/Middle East
53%
9%
China
38%
47%
Asia Pacific
14%
8%
57%
North America
6%
25%
40%
Europe/CIS 29%
60%
6%
Africa/Middle East
38%
47%
6%
Asia Pacific
20% 9%50%
14%
8%
21%
57%
North America
6%
25%
29%
40%
Europe/CIS
31%
20%
49%
Latin America
29%
60%
6%5%
Africa/Middle East
53%
9%
38%
China
38%
47%
6%10%
Asia Pacific
20% 9% 21%50%
57%
North America
40%
Europe/CIS
49%
Latin America
60%
Africa/Middle East
9%
China
47%
Asia Pacific
50%
Source: OAG (1Q10)
World
E-Jets Actual DeploymentE-Jets Actual Deployment
Right-sizing New Markets Replacement of old Jets
NaturalGrowth
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
E-Jets Helping to Increase EfficiencyE-Jets Helping to Increase Efficiency
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
“Going to Embraer 190's, shorter stage length, fewer seats per flight,
outperformance in RASM, (…) and driving more revenue.”
E190 - Right-sizing at US AirwaysE190 - Right-sizing at US Airways
6:00
8:00
10:00
12:00
14:00
16:00
18:00
20:00
22:00
Dec/09
Frequency 16
Seats 2,096
A319A319A319A319
A319A319A319A319
A319A319
A319
A319
A319A319
A319A319
Scott KirbyUS Airways President
Jan/10
E190E190
E190E190
E190E190E190E190E190E190
E190E190
E190E190
E190E190
Frequency 16
Seats 1,568
Source: OAGback (3rd Wed of Dec/09 and Jan/10)
A319 E190
Load Factor: 41.7%
New York LaGuardia (LGA) – Boston Logan (BOS)
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
E-Jets: Complementing NarrowbodiesE-Jets: Complementing Narrowbodies
Source: OAG (2009)
SEATS
06:00
07:00
08:00
09:00
10:00
11:00
12:00
13:00
14:00
15:00
16:00
17:00
18:00
19:00
20:00
21:00
22:00
23:00
Cairo – Sharm el Sheik
B735
B735
B735
B735
1160
Aug/07
A321
A321
978
Aug/09
A321
A321
E170
E170
A321
A321
E170
E170
E170
E170
E170
New York – Chicago
2,040
Apr/09
1,920
Apr/10
A319
B757
A320
B757
B757
A319
A319
A319
B737-3
A319
A320
B737-3
A320
A319
A319
A319
A319
E170A319
A319
E170A320
E170A320
A319
A320
A319
E170A320
A319
A319
A319
Madrid – Paris (ORY)
B738
B738
744 606
Dec/08 Dec/09
E195
B738
B738B738
B738 E195
494 342
Sep/08 Sep/09
A320
E190
E190
A321
A320
San Salvador - Guatemala
A320
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
E-Jets ���� Right-sizing narrowbody servicesE-Jets ���� Right-sizing narrowbody services
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
E-Jets Helping Enlarging NetworksE-Jets Helping Enlarging Networks
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
E190E190E190 E190
100
150+
Seats
B737-700A320 A320 A320
Middle EastEuropeAsia PacificNorth America
E-Jets Helping Explore New MarketsE-Jets Helping Explore New Markets
Low Cost Carriers with Two Fleet Types
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
E-Jets Helping Reduce Costs and Fuel BurnE-Jets Helping Reduce Costs and Fuel Burn
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
Source: www.eforefficiency.comNote: European economic conditions, fuel at 0.50 EUR/liter
E-Jets: Direct Replacement BenefitsE-Jets: Direct Replacement Benefits
Fuel Burn
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
E170/E190 - Air France / KLME170/E190 - Air France / KLM
“The E-Jets continue to receive great acceptance from our customers for their large and comfortable cabin, and we gain great efficiency by operating both the EMBRAER 190 and the EMBRAER 170.”Jean-Yves Grosse, Régional/Air France President and CEO
“KLM Cityhopper is impressed with the excellent performance of EMBRAER 190 from an operational-technical and customer perspective.”Boet Kreiken, Managing Director of KLM Cityhopper
Source: OAG, 2010
10 E170 + 27 E190
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
E190/E195 - LufthansaE190/E195 - Lufthansa
“… Lufthansa will continue its strive to further upgrade its fleet to offer its customers an unrivalled
premium product on its regional network, with exceptional levels of comfort.”
Nico Buchholz, Lufthansa Senior Vice President, Corporate Fleet
Source: OAG, 2010
11 E190 + 19 E195
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
E170/E190 - British AirwaysE170/E190 - British Airways
Peter Simpson ManagingDirector of BA Cityflyer
"Passenger feedback on the new fleet has been fantastic, with
the two-by-two seating configuration and the additional space a
particular hit over the RJs they have replaced,"(ATI, July 15th 2010)
6 E170 + 5 E190
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
E-Jets Sales at Farnborough 2010E-Jets Sales at Farnborough 2010
LOI for up to 20 LOI for up to 20 EJetsEJets
LOI for 24 E190LOI for 24 E190 2 E190 converted 2 E190 converted
optionsoptions
5 E195 converted 5 E195 converted
optionsoptions
Order for 35 E175Order for 35 E175
Order can increase Order can increase
up to 140 Jetsup to 140 Jets
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
E175 – FlybeE175 – Flybe
Jim FrenchChairman andCEO of Flybe
as of Jun/10
“The EMBRAER 175 will give us significant added capacity and is
particularly suited to the sector lengths prevalent in Europe that
we are most interested in exploiting. In short, it perfectly fits Flybe’s
business model.” (Flybe Jul/2010)
FIS Backlog Options
E195 14
E175 35 65
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
E190 - Air LeaseE190 - Air Lease
Oct/2010: EMBRAER AND AIR LEASE SIGN FINAL AGREEMENT FOR UP TO
20 E-JETS (15 orders + 5 options)
“… the unique design of the E-190 allows us to offer Air Lease customers a mainline product but at
regional jet operating economics,”. “Since the initial announcement made at the Farnborough Air Show,
we have received significant interest from customers from all parts of the world and we look forward
to providing an aircraft that meets their needs.”John L. Plueger, President and COO of Air Lease Corp (Oct/2010)
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
E190 - Republic (Frontier)E190 - Republic (Frontier)
Agreement for more 24 EMBRAER 190s
“This new agreement confirms our commitment to the E-Jet family. We chose
them again because passenger comfort, mission performance, especially in hot
and high markets like Denver (DEN), and compelling economics are hallmarks of
the E-Jets product line.” (July/2010)Bryan Bedford
CEO of Republic Airways
E190 Routemap 2010Source: OAG
15 E190 already operating under Frontier colors
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
Orders announced in Farnborough Air ShowOrders announced in Farnborough Air Show
0
50
100
150
200
E-Jets ATR 72 Q400 CRJ CSeries MRJ
Total Orders* for aircraft up to 120 seats
191
64
0 07 0
*Includes Firm Orders, Options , Purchase Rights and LOIs
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
Market Share - World (Jets 61-120 seats)Market Share - World (Jets 61-120 seats)
Considering accumulated Net Orders up to Jun/10.
Embraer: 170/175/190/195 Sukhoi: Superjet 100Bombardier: CRJ700/900/1000; CS100 Comac: ARJ-21Airbus: A318 Antonov: An-148/158Boeing: B737-600 Mitsubishi: MRJ90
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
Market Outlook 2010-2029MarketMarket Outlook 2010Outlook 2010--20292029
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
Each region has a different pattern
Asia Pacific and China will represent 36% of RPK in 2029
RPK (Billion) 2009 Traffic Added Traffic 2010-29
2010-2029 AnnualGrowth Rate [%]RPK GDP
3.2% 2.6%
4.2% 2.0%
5.7% 3.2%
7.3% 6.7%
6.5% 4.0%
6.0% 4.0%
6.0% 3.3%
5.1% 4.4%
4.9% 3.1%World
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
29,135 new aircraft will be required29,135 new aircraft will be required
About US$3 tri in terms of aircraft deliveries opportunities worldwide
2,2602,260
475475
2,5152,515
3,8853,885
14,43514,435
5,5655,565
6,875 aircraft(24%)
6,875 aircraft(24%)
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
6,875 jet deliveries (30-120 seats)
North America
2,40035%
Europe
1,51022%
Russia CIS
4056%
Latin America
5758%
Africa
2203%
Middle East
2404%
China
95014%
Asia Pacific
5758%
North America + Europe will represent 57% of new world deliveries
680 E-Jets56 Airlines from 39 Countries
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