COCHISE COLLEGECOCHISE COLLEGECenter for Economic Center for Economic
ResearchResearch
Economic Review & OutlookEconomic Review & Outlook
Douglas, AZDouglas, AZ
Cochise College Center for Economic Research
United States United States
Real GDP GrowthReal GDP Growth2005: 3.1%2005: 3.1%2006: 2.9%2006: 2.9%2007:2007:
11stst Qtr: 0.6% Qtr: 0.6%22ndnd Qtr: 4.0% Qtr: 4.0%
GDP percent change based on chained 2000 dollars
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Cochise College Center for Economic Research
United States United States
Consumer Price Consumer Price IndexIndex 2005: Up 3.4%2005: Up 3.4% 2006: Up 3.2%2006: Up 3.2% 2007: 2.5% (Jan-Jul)2007: 2.5% (Jan-Jul)
Energy prices up Energy prices up 21.3% (SAAR) in first 21.3% (SAAR) in first 7 months of 20077 months of 2007 Petroleum-based Petroleum-based
energy up 36.9%energy up 36.9%
U.S. Inflation Rate (Change in CPI)
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Cochise College Center for Economic Research
Interest RatesInterest Rates
Federal Funds Rate, 2001-2007
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
Jan 0
1
Jul
Jan 0
2
Jul
Jan 0
3
Jul
Jan 0
4
Jul
Jan 0
5
Jul
Jan 0
6
Jul
Jan 0
7
Jul
Mortgage Rates, Jul 2006-2007
5.86
6.26.46.66.8
7
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Federal Funds RateFederal Funds Rate Increased 25 basis Increased 25 basis
points each meeting points each meeting from June 2004 to June from June 2004 to June 20062006
Currently 5.25%Currently 5.25%
Mortgage RatesMortgage Rates 2004: 5.84% 2004: 5.84% 2005: 5.87%2005: 5.87% 2006: 6.58% 2006: 6.58% Jul 2007: 6.77%Jul 2007: 6.77%
Cochise College Center for Economic Research
Real GDP Growth Rates Real GDP Growth Rates
0.02.04.06.08.0
2003 2004 2005 2006
ArizonaU.S.
Arizona’s GDP grew by 6.8% in 2006Arizona’s GDP grew by 6.8% in 2006 33rdrd fastest growing state (economically) in the nation fastest growing state (economically) in the nation
Cochise College Center for Economic Research
Cochise College Center for Economic Research
The Local EconomyThe Local Economy
Cochise College Center for Economic Research
PopulationPopulationPopulation Growth Rate Comparisons, 2002-2006
0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Douglas Cochise CountyArizona
DouglasDouglas 2006 Population: 17,6602006 Population: 17,660 Up 2.7% from 2005Up 2.7% from 2005 Up 23.4% since 2000Up 23.4% since 2000 Average 1.2% per year Average 1.2% per year
since 2001since 2001
Cochise CountyCochise County 2006 Population: 2006 Population:
135,150135,150 Up 2.5% from 2005Up 2.5% from 2005 Up 14.8% since 2000Up 14.8% since 2000 Average 2.3% per year Average 2.3% per year
since 2000since 2000
Population ProjectionsPopulation Projections
In 2011In 2011Douglas: 18,543 (Avg. 1% per year)Douglas: 18,543 (Avg. 1% per year)
Cochise County: 152,107 (Avg. 2.3% per Cochise County: 152,107 (Avg. 2.3% per year)year)
EmploymentEmployment
Cochise College Center for Economic Research
Unemployment RateUnemployment Rate
Unemployment Rate Comparisons, 2001-2007
2.5%
3.5%
4.5%
5.5%
6.5%
7.5%
8.5%
9.5%
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
United States ArizonaCochise County Douglas
20062006 U.S.: 4.6%U.S.: 4.6% Arizona: 4.1%Arizona: 4.1% Cochise County: 4.5%Cochise County: 4.5% Douglas: 7.1%Douglas: 7.1%
Jan-Jul 2007Jan-Jul 2007 U.S.: 4.7%U.S.: 4.7% Arizona: 3.8%Arizona: 3.8% Cochise County: 4.2%Cochise County: 4.2% Douglas: 6.6%Douglas: 6.6%
Cochise College Center for Economic Research
Douglas Employment, 2006Douglas Employment, 2006
Civilian Labor Force: 6,012Civilian Labor Force: 6,012 New Jobs: 126New Jobs: 126 Job Growth: 2.3%Job Growth: 2.3%
Top 5 Employers (FTE Employment)Top 5 Employers (FTE Employment) Arizona Department of Corrections (651)Arizona Department of Corrections (651) Douglas Unified School District (541)Douglas Unified School District (541) Douglas Border Patrol Station (471)Douglas Border Patrol Station (471) Wal-Mart (339)Wal-Mart (339) Cochise College (223)Cochise College (223) City of Douglas (222)City of Douglas (222)
Cochise College Center for Economic Research
Cochise County Non-Farm Cochise County Non-Farm EmploymentEmployment
2005200536,675 jobs 36,675 jobs 1,525 new jobs1,525 new jobsAnnual job Annual job
growth: 4.3%growth: 4.3%Goods Producing: Goods Producing:
4.5%4.5%Private Service-Private Service-
providing: 4.1%providing: 4.1%Government: Government:
4.6%4.6%
2006200637,700 jobs 37,700 jobs 1,025 new jobs1,025 new jobsAnnual job Annual job
growth: 2.8%growth: 2.8%Goods Producing: Goods Producing:
4.3%4.3%Private Service-Private Service-
providing: 3.4%providing: 3.4%Government: Government:
1.7%1.7%
Cochise College Center for Economic Research
Cochise County Job Cochise County Job Creation/Growth, 2005-2006Creation/Growth, 2005-2006
No. of New JobsNo. of New Jobs Professional & business Professional & business
services: 450services: 450 Government: 200 Government: 200 Trade, transportation & Trade, transportation &
utilities: 200utilities: 200 Mining & construction: 150Mining & construction: 150 Financial activities: 25Financial activities: 25 Leisure & hospitality: 25 Leisure & hospitality: 25 Other services: 25Other services: 25 Education and health Education and health
services: 0services: 0 Information: 0Information: 0 Manufacturing: -25Manufacturing: -25
Job Growth RateJob Growth Rate Professional & business Professional & business
services: 10.4% services: 10.4% Mining & construction: 5.7%Mining & construction: 5.7% Trade, transportation & Trade, transportation &
utilities: 3.1%utilities: 3.1% Financial activities: 2.5% Financial activities: 2.5% Other services: 2.5%Other services: 2.5% Government: 1.7%Government: 1.7% Leisure & hospitality: 0.6%Leisure & hospitality: 0.6% Education and health services: Education and health services:
0% 0% Information: 0%Information: 0% Manufacturing: -2.9% Manufacturing: -2.9%
Cochise College Center for Economic Research
County Job Growth Trends in County Job Growth Trends in 20072007
Slowed job growth each month since the Slowed job growth each month since the beginning of the yearbeginning of the year
Negative job growth in June (-0.3%) and Negative job growth in June (-0.3%) and July (-0.4%)July (-0.4%)
Job losses by industry (July comparisons)Job losses by industry (July comparisons) Other Services: -7.3%Other Services: -7.3% Financial Activities: -7.1%Financial Activities: -7.1% Information: -5.6%Information: -5.6% Federal Government: -4.0%Federal Government: -4.0% Construction: -2.7%Construction: -2.7% State and Local Government: -1.5%State and Local Government: -1.5% Leisure & Hospitality: -0.6%Leisure & Hospitality: -0.6%
Cochise College Center for Economic Research
Average Annual Wage Comparisons, Average Annual Wage Comparisons, 20062006
$24,746
$34,417 $36,218
$39,190
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
Douglas Cochise County Arizona United States
Cochise College Center for Economic Research
Average Hourly Wage Comparisons, Average Hourly Wage Comparisons, 20062006
$11.90
$16.55$17.41
$18.84
$0.00
$2.00
$4.00
$6.00
$8.00
$10.00
$12.00
$14.00
$16.00
$18.00
$20.00
Douglas Cochise County Arizona United States
Cochise College Center for Economic Research
Employment OutlookEmployment Outlook Continued slowing Continued slowing
of job growthof job growth Rising Rising
unemploymentunemployment More job losses in More job losses in
financial activities financial activities and construction and construction countywidecountywide
Local SalesLocal Sales
ConstructionConstruction
WholesaleTrade
WholesaleTrade
LodgingLodging
RestaurantandBar
RestaurantandBar
RetailSales
RetailSales
ManufacturingManufacturing
Cochise College Center for Economic Research
Douglas Sales Tax Revenue by Douglas Sales Tax Revenue by Industry GroupIndustry Group
Restaurant & Bar, 6.5%
Real Estate Rental & Leasing, 3.3%
Services, 1.2%
Other, 2.6%
Wholesale, 1.9%
Manufacturing, 1.7%
Communications & Utilities, 7.0%
Construction, 4.5%
Retail, 71.3%
Cochise College Center for Economic Research
Douglas Retail Sales Tax Douglas Retail Sales Tax RevenueRevenue
Retail Sales Tax Revenue
$3.0$3.1$3.2$3.3$3.4$3.5$3.6$3.7$3.8
FY 04-05 FY 05-06 FY 06-07
Mill
ions
FY 06-07FY 06-07 $3.6 million$3.6 million Up 5.2% (follows Up 5.2% (follows
strong growth of strong growth of 9.5% in 05-06) 9.5% in 05-06)
Real, inflation-Real, inflation-adjusted growth of adjusted growth of 2.6%2.6%
Cochise College Center for Economic Research
Douglas Restaurant & Bar Douglas Restaurant & Bar SalesSales
20062006 $13 million$13 million Up 8.3% Up 8.3% Real, inflation-Real, inflation-
adjusted growth of adjusted growth of 5.1%5.1%
Jan-May 2007Jan-May 2007 $5.3 million$5.3 million Down 0.5% Down 0.5% Real, inflation-Real, inflation-
adjusted growth of -adjusted growth of -3.2%3.2%
Restaurant & Bar, 2002-2006
$10.5
$11.5
$12.5
$13.5
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Mill
ions
Cochise College Center for Economic Research
Sales OutlookSales Outlook
Slowing of retail salesSlowing of retail salesContinued slowdown of restaurant & bar Continued slowdown of restaurant & bar
salessalesPotential interest rate cuts in late 2007 may Potential interest rate cuts in late 2007 may
help along sales help along sales
Housing & Real EstateHousing & Real Estate
Cochise College Center for Economic Research
Cochise County New SFR Cochise County New SFR ConstructionConstruction
653
9261,046 1,108
900
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Jan-Jun 2007: Permits were down 56.7% (from Jan-Jun 2007: Permits were down 56.7% (from 619 to 268)619 to 268)
Cochise College Center for Economic Research
Douglas New SFR Douglas New SFR ConstructionConstruction
2006: 66 permits2006: 66 permitsDown 18.5% from 81 in 2005Down 18.5% from 81 in 2005Despite the decline, more permits were Despite the decline, more permits were
issued in 2006 than in 2002-2004 issued in 2006 than in 2002-2004 combined combined
Jan-Aug 2007: 30 permitsJan-Aug 2007: 30 permitsDown 33.3% from 45 in Jan-Aug 2006Down 33.3% from 45 in Jan-Aug 2006
Cochise College Center for Economic Research
MLS Home Sales, Jan-Aug 07MLS Home Sales, Jan-Aug 07
Cochise CountyCochise County 989 homes sold989 homes sold
Down 8.3% from last Down 8.3% from last yearyear
Median price: Median price: $195,000$195,000
Up 3.1% Up 3.1%
DouglasDouglas 72 homes sold72 homes sold
Up 26.3% from last Up 26.3% from last yearyear
Median price: Median price: $84,000$84,000
Down 12.5%Down 12.5%
Cochise College Center for Economic Research
Douglas Housing Affordability Douglas Housing Affordability IndexIndex
115.5
196.4
162.3
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
2004 2005 2006
Cochise College Center for Economic Research
OutlookOutlook
Countywide home sales will continue Countywide home sales will continue to slowto slowIn Douglas, home sales should remain In Douglas, home sales should remain
steadysteadyContinued slowdown of construction Continued slowdown of construction
countywide, including Douglascountywide, including DouglasStabilization of prices at both the Stabilization of prices at both the
county and city levelcounty and city level
Cochise College Center for Economic Research
That’s All Folks!That’s All Folks!
Cochise College Center for Economic Research
Top Related