Climate Change
and Ontario Agriculture
FarmSmart 2017 Christoph Wand
OMAFRA Livestock Sustainability Specialist
@CtophWand
Adam Hayes
OMAFRA Soil Management Specialist – Field Crops
Global Roundtable for Sustainable Beef www.grsbeef.org
Canadian Roundtable for Sustainable Beef www.crsb.ca
Rumen Chemistry
Undigestible
Available
to hindgut
Fecal
Rumen
Body
Diet
Energy
Methane (CH4) Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
VFAs
Greenhouse Gases
Source: IPCC 2007 Annual Report
Greenhouse Gases
• Manure management (e.g. anaerobic
digestion) and management of
enteric fermentation (e.g. feed
rations, production lifecycle)
• Energy/water management
(improved efficiency and
conservation, co-generation)
• Bio-based feedstocks for use as
transportation fuels (e.g. compressed
natural gas)
• Management of nitrogen fertilizer
use (4Rs)
• Tillage
The more we delay, the more
mitigation will cost
Many opportunities exist for the agri-food industry to reduce GHGs
Undeniable Proof of Climate Change
What is a Greenhouse Gas (GHG)?
Any gas in the atmosphere which
absorbs and re‐emits heat, and thereby
keeps the planet’s atmosphere warmer
than it otherwise would be.
• water vapour
• carbon dioxide (CO2)
• methane (CH4)
• nitrous oxide (N2O)
• ozone
• refrigerants
https://ecometrica.com/assets/GHGs-CO2-CO2e-and-Carbon-What-Do-These-Mean-v2.1.pdf
http://www.wri.org/blog/2014/05/everything-you-need-know-about-agricultural-emissions Image credit: IPCC
Where do (agricultural) GHGs come from?
Carbon Dioxide
(CO2)
Natural
•Ecosystems
•Plants & animals
Other
•Fossil fuel combustion
•Manufacturing
•Tillage
Methane
(CH4)
Natural
•Wetlands
•Poorly drained soil
Other
•Landfill sites
•Manure storages
•Fossil fuel combustion
•Feed digestion by ruminants
Nitrous Oxide
(N2O)
Natural
•Soils in natural ecosystems
Other
•Fossil fuel combustion
•Soil de-nitrification
•Manure
•Fertilizers
Where do (agricultural) GHGs come from?
Global
Warming
Potential x 1 x 25 x 298
How is Ontario’s Climate Changing?
• Our summers are warmer, with more heat
waves
• Our winters are warmer, with fewer extreme
cold days and less snow overall
• We are seeing more intense and severe
storms
2016
2016
What does Climate Change Look like in Ontario?
Implications for Cash Crops CORN – Growing conditions: - Optimal crop heat units: 2700-3500
- Soil T°C at planting: >10 °C
- Develops fastest at 30 °C
- Tolerates temperatures as high as 38
°C if no drought present
- Late season cold: lower threshold -2
°C
- H2O requirements: ~500mm
- Most susceptible to dry conditions @
tasselling to silking stage (July-early
Aug)
Potential climate change impacts
- Increased total thermal time improves
growing conditions
- A warmer April –early start- or higher temperatures in June-August
WHEAT- Growing conditions
• Snow good (insulation & H2 0 source); ice bad
• Temperature parameters – Wheat has two dormancy periods 1st dormancy (with snow): threshold -22°C
2nd dormancy: cold injury threshold -12°C
– Pollination: threshold -1°C
– Grain fill: threshold > 25°C
• Precipitation parameters
– Grain fill: need 1.5”-2”/week for good
yield
Potential impacts
• Icing injury in absence of snow cover
• Warmer winter may shift pollination earlier
Implications for Cash Crops
What does Climate Change Look like in Ontario?
Changing Pests, Diseases, Invasive Species
Crop-pest complex more likely to
resemble more southerly regions + other
factors
• “more bugs” over time = increased
pesticide loads
– environmental / economic costs /
resistance
• need improved forecasting to inform
IPM, monitoring, better timing, changes
to rotation sequences / tillage practices,
new tools, other
Potential climate change impacts on agriculture
Infrastructure:
• buildings,
• energy systems,
• drainage and sewers,
and
• roads and bridges
Biodiversity:
• wildlife reproduction
• relationships between
predators and prey
• tree and plant species
survival
Water:
• earlier snowmelt
• less ice cover on lakes
• changing rainfall and
snowfall patterns,
especially in the Great
Lakes region
• changes in water’s
movement between air,
soil, plants and bodies
of water
Why does Climate Change matter? What
…is a GHG?
…is Cap and Trade?
Why
…does it matter?
Where
…do GHGs come from?
Who
…does it affect?
How
…will it affect my farm?
…much will it cost me?
…can I improve?
…will gov’t help me?
http://www.agr.gc.ca/eng/science-and-innovation/agricultural-practices/agriculture-and-climate/future-outlook/climate-change-scenarios/length-of-growing-season-in-ontario/
1971-2000 2010-2039
Impacts on Livestock
• Potential negative impacts
to Ontario’s livestock
sector from Climate
Change include:
– Challenges with heat
stress
– Emerging pests and
disease
• Climate change will also present
several opportunities to the livestock
sector
– Increased diversity of crops = more
productive feedstocks
– Milder and shorter winters creates
opportunities for northern expansion
Addressing Climate Change
Feed/Feeding is a Large Part
of Livestock Footprint
C l i m a t e c h a n ge i m p a c t s
Main impacts
Feed production
Fertilizer production
Field operations
Manure management
Methane emissions
Nitrous oxide emissions
C l i m a t e c h a n ge i m p a c t s
Ontario’s performance:
Better than the international average
Fully comparable to North American average
Source: MacLeod, M., Gerber, P., Mottet, a, Tempio, G., Falcucci, a, Opio, C., … Steinfeld, H. (2013). Greenhouse gas emissions from pig and chicken supply chains – A global life cycle assessment.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
World North America Ontario
kg C
O2
-eq
/ k
g C
W p
ork
Carbon footprint of industrial swine production
Mitigation - What agriculture can do?
Sequestering Carbon
The organic carbon content in Ontario soils
has fallen by about 23% since the onset of
cultivation (23 t C/ha)
Carbon sequestration occurs when not all of
the 2.7 t/ha photosynthetic carbon added
annually is given off as C02
Carbon Sequestration
Mitigation - What agriculture can do?
• Energy Conservation
– Natural ventilation
– LED/ florescent lighting
– Insulation
– Heat recovery
Mitigation - What agriculture can do?
• Energy Generation
– Solar shop walls
– Ground source
heating
– Electricity generation
• Wind energy
• Solar electricity
• Anaerobic
digesters
– Biomass fuels
Mitigation - What agriculture can do?
Reduce nitrous oxide
emissions through
Applying the right rate
of nitrogen
Timing of nitrogen
fertilizer application
Minimizing the amount
of nitrogen in the soil
over winter
Opportunities and Challenges
• Reduced winter heating and increased
summer cooling costs for greenhouses
• Decrease in winter injury to orchards
• Increase in winter injury to crops requiring
snow cover
• Wetter springs may delay planting
• Higher yield from increased CO2 levels
• Hotter dryer summers will increase the
requirement for irrigation, limited water
supply could potentially reduce production
Adaptation
• Adaptation to climate change entails taking
measures to reduce the negative effects of
climate change or
• Take advantage of the positive effects
Adapting to Climate Change
• Crop production
– Development and selection of adapted
varieties and new crop species
– Monitoring of new pests and diseases
– Selection of resistant or tolerant varieties
• Water management
– Increase capacity for irrigation
– Improved water use efficiency
Adapting to Climate Change
• Soil Management
– Build organic matter to improve resistance
to wind and water erosion and increase
moisture holding capacity
– Use mulches to help keep soil cooler and
reduce moisture loss
– Utilize cover crops, crop residue and other
measures to protect the soil from wind and
water erosion
• Allowances: Emissions permits under cap
and trade, equivalent to 1 tonne of CO2e.
Those who are capped must have enough
allowances to cover their emissions.
• Offsets: A credit for a verified emissions
reduction (e.g. afforestation) that can be used
for up to 8% of a facility’s emissions when
submitting allowances.
Terminology
What is Cap and Trade?
offsets
Opportunities for Agriculture and Agri-food
• Offsets will be allowed as a compliance mechanism and could provide a revenue stream for farmers while reducing their carbon footprint
– Reductions in GHG emissions from OUTSIDE the capped sectors (i.e. forestry, agriculture)
– Credits may be traded
40
Proposed Offset Protocols Relevant to Ag.
Emission reductions from livestock associated with management of
manure and enteric fermentation
Nitrous oxide emission reductions from fertilizer management
Organic waste digestion
Organic waste management
Afforestation and forest projects including re-forestation, improved forest
management and avoided conversion
Conservation cropping (mainly tillage)
Grassland – avoided conversion to cropland
How much CO2 is emitted
https://www.epa.gov/energy/ghg-equivalencies-calculator-calculations-and-references
21.6 mpg (10.9 L/100km)
11,346 miles (18,260 km)
4.7 tonnes of CO2 emitted
C8H18 + O2 = H2O + CO2 2 25 18 16
Who participates in “Cap and Trade”?
Mandatory participants (must REPORT and
VERIFY)
• Facilities and natural gas distributors
(25,000+ tonnes GHG emissions)
• Fuel suppliers (200+ L fuel sold)
• Electricity importers
Voluntary participants (must REPORT and
VERIFY)
• Facilities (10,000 - 25,000 tonnes GHG emissions)
Market participants
• Individuals
• Not-for-profit organizations
• Companies without compliance obligations
https://www.ontario.ca/page/cap-and-trade-program-overview
What does 25,000 tonnes look like?
10,000 tonnes
5.2 million m3
6.4 million L
4.1 million L
3.6 million L
32 acres*
190,000 tonnes*
25,000 tonnes
13.2 million m3
16.1 million L
10.1 million L
9.1 million L
80 acres*
480,000 tonnes*
Natural gas
Propane
Gasoline
Diesel
Greenhouse
Grain Drying
*estimation, based on assumed energy use levels. Actual quantity may vary.
Carbon emissions of common ag practices
Agricultural practices kg CO2e / hectare
Individual tillage practices 2 – 20
Conventional till system 30 – 35
Minimum till system 6 – 8
Spraying 1 – 1.4
Seeding 2 – 4
Irrigation – 25 cm of water 7 – 425
Irrigation – 50 cm of water 53 – 850
Harvesting 6 – 12
https://sustainability.water.ca.gov/documents/18/3407432/Carbon+emission+from+farm+operati.pdf
Energy Costs Impacts
Cap and Trade — Cost to Energy Consumers (Budget 2016)
Electricity Costs - Commercial and Industrial $0/month
Electricity Costs - Residential – $2/month
Transportation - Gasoline Prices + 4.3 cents/litre
Transportation – Diesel Prices (source:
MOECC funded modeling) +5 cents/litre
Home Heating - Natural Gas Prices + 3.3 cents/cubic metre
Home Heating - Natural Gas Costs1 + $5/month
* These numbers were calculated prior to the HST discount announcement
C&T Implications for Livestock Producers
• Carbon sequestration or trading opportunities for
direct livestock agriculture will be few
• Energy (electricity) and Fuel (transport) effects at
farm level are yet to be seen and understood
• Impacts on other large emitters will be ‘downloaded’
(uploaded?)
• How does this affect future barn design? Production
systems? Cropping systems?
• How should Ontario’s producers position themselves
as a sector and as businesses?
What is the government doing?
Cap and Trade – in effect January 1, 2017
Climate Change Action Plan
Goal: help Ontario transition to “low-carbon economy”
Ag-specific programs announced:
• $15-20M for renewable natural gas production
• $50-115M for retrofits for agricultural facilities
and food processing facilities
• Up to $30M for soil health strategy
Growing Forward 2 and other funding for BMPs
ontario.ca/climatechange ontario.ca/capandtrade
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