Predicting the Markets:Chapter 8 Charts:
Predicting Real EstateYardeni Research, Inc.
April 30, 2020
Dr. Edward YardeniChief Investment Strategist
Mali QuintanaSenior Economist
Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com
thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents
April 30, 2020 / Chapter 8 Charts: Predicting Real Estate www.yardeni.com
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Predicting Real Estate 1-22
48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT IN REAL GDP(billion 2012 dollars, saar, ratio scale)
Q1
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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Figure 1.
68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
HOUSING COMPLETIONS(million units, saar)
Mar
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Census Bureau.
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Figure 2.
Predicting Real Estate
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59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25.3
.5
.7
.9
1.1
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1.5
1.7
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.5
2.7
2.9
.3
.5
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1.1
1.3
1.5
1.7
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.5
2.7
2.9
HOUSING STARTS & HOUSING COMPLETIONS(million units, saar)
Mar
Housing StartsHousing Completions
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Census Bureau.
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Figure 3.
60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.5
1.0
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2.0
2.5
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.5
1.0
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2.5
3.0
HOUSING STARTS & BUILDING PERMITS(million units, saar)
Mar
Housing StartsBuilding Permits
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Census Bureau.
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Figure 4.
Predicting Real Estate
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59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23.2
.4
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1.0
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2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
.2
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.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
HOUSING STARTS(million units, saar)
Mar
TotalSingle-Family
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Census Bureau.
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Figure 5.
64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.0
.2
.4
.6
.8
1.0
1.2
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1.6
.0
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1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
HOUSING STARTS: MULTI-FAMILY(million units, saar)
Mar
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Census Bureau.
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Figure 6.
Predicting Real Estate
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68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 240
300
600
900
1200
1500
1800
2100
0
300
600
900
1200
1500
1800
2100
Mar
NEW HOME SALES & HOUSING COMPLETIONS: SINGLE-FAMILY(thousand units, saar)
Single-Family HousingCompletionsNew Home Sales
Source: Census Bureau.
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Figure 7.
68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.0
.5
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2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
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5.0
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.0
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1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
Mar
EXISTING vs. NEW HOME SALES(million units, saar)
Existing Total*Existing Single-FamilyNew Single-Family
Source: Census Bureau and National Association of Realtors.* Includes single-family, condominium, and co-op sales.
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Figure 8.
Predicting Real Estate
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40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 2520
22
24
26
28
30
32
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
2018
2018
MEDIAN AGE AT FIRST MARRIAGE(years)
MenWomen
Source: Current Population Reports.
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Figure 9.
47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 2310
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2017
HOUSEHOLDS & FAMILIES BY TYPE(as a percent of all households)
Married vs NotMarried HouseholdsNot Married Households
Source: Census Bureau, Current Population Surveys, Annual Social & Economic Supplements, Table HH-1.
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Figure 10.
Predicting Real Estate
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50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 2210
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2017
HOUSEHOLDS & FAMILIES BY TYPE(as a percent of all households)
Married Couples
Married Couples with ChildrenTotal Married Couples
Married Couples w/o Children
Source: Census Bureau, Current Population Surveys, Annual Social & Economic Supplements, Tables FM-1 and HH-1.
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Figure 11.
68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
HOUSING COMPLETIONS & BUILDING PERMITS(million units, saar)
Mar
CompletionsBuilding Permits
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Census Bureau.
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Figure 12.
Predicting Real Estate
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83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
1
2
3
4
0
1
2
3
4
Mar
Mar
EXISTING & NEW SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES FOR SALE(million units)
Inventory ofHomes For Sale
Existing (nsa)New (sa)
Source: Census Bureau and National Association of Realtors.
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Figure 13.
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
7.5
8.5
9.5
10.5
11.5
12.5
13.5
14.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
7.5
8.5
9.5
10.5
11.5
12.5
13.5
14.5
Mar
Mar
HOME SUPPLY: MONTHS ON THE MARKET
* Homes for sale divided by sales.
Months’ Supply ofSingle-Family Homes*
Existing (nsa)New (sa)
Source: Census Bureau and National Association of Realtors.
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Figure 14.
Predicting Real Estate
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2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20220
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Mar
Apr
HOUSING MARKET INDEX (HOMEBUILDERS) & PENDING HOME SALES INDEX (REALTORS)
Pending Home Sales Index (2001 = 100)Housing Market Index (all good = 100)*
* For each diffusion index, when all respondents answer "good," the index is 100. If all respondents answer "poor," the index is 0. If equal numbers ofrespondents answer "good" and "poor", the index is 50.Source: National Association of Realtors and National Association of Home Builders.
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Figure 15.
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22100
200
300
400
500
100
200
300
400
500
Mar
RETAIL SALES: BUILDING MATERIALS, GARDEN EQUIPMENT, & SUPPLY DEALERS(billion dollars, saar)
Source: Bureau of the Census.
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Figure 16.
Predicting Real Estate
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68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 240
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
0
50
100
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350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
Mar
DIY* HOUSING CONSTRUCTION: SINGLE-FAMILY COMPLETIONS MINUS NEW HOME SALES(thousand units, saar)
12-ma
* "Do-it-yourself" homebuilding.Source: Census Bureau.
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Figure 17.
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
100
200
300
400
500
600
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
4/24
MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS: NEW PURCHASE INDEX(4-week ma, sa)
Source: Mortgage Bankers of America.
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Figure 18.
Predicting Real Estate
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87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 241
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Q4
LOAN DELINQUENCY RATE: ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS(percent, sa)
DelinquenciesReal Estate Loans
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Source: Federal Reserve Board.
Figure 19.
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
7.5
8.5
9.5
10.5
11.5
12.5
13.5
.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
7.5
8.5
9.5
10.5
11.5
12.5
13.5
Q4
LOAN DELINQUENCY RATE: ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS(percent, sa)
DelinquenciesResidential Loans*Commercial Loans**
* Residential real estate loans include loans secured by one- to four-family properties, including home equity lines of credit.** Commercial real estate loans include construction and land development loans, loans secured by multifamily residences, and loans secured by nonfarm,
nonresidential real estate.Source: Federal Reserve Board.
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Figure 20.
Predicting Real Estate
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60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2440
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
Q1
PRIVATE NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT IN REAL GDP:COMMERCIAL & HEALTH CARE STRUCTURES(billion 2012 dollars, saar)
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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Figure 21.
60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2420
470
920
1370
18202270272031703620
20
470
920
1370
18202270272031703620
COMMERCIAL MORTGAGES(billion dollars outstanding, ratio scale)
Q4
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States.
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Figure 22.
Predicting Real Estate
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
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9.5
10.0
.0
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1.0
1.5
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3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
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7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0FEDERAL FUNDS TARGET RATE, US TREASURY 10-YEAR BOND YIELD &30-YEAR MORTGAGE RATE: 2000-2009(percent,daily)
30-Year Mortgage Rate
Federal Funds Target RateUS Treasury 10-Year Bond Yield
Source: Federal Reserve Board and Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation.
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Figure 23.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES DEFLATOR: 2000-2009(yearly percent change)
TotalTotal ExFood & Energy
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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Figure 24.
Predicting Real Estate
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80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2250
100
150
200
250
300
2
7
12
17
22
27
32MarHOUSEHOLD REAL ESTATE VALUE & MEDIAN EXISTING SINGLE-FAMILY HOME PRICE
(ratio scale)
Real Estate Held by Households(trillion dollars)
Median Existing Single-Family Home Price(thousand dollars, 12-month average)
Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States and National Association of Realtors.
yardeni.com
Figure 25.
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 240
5
10
15
20
25
30
0
5
10
15
20
25
30Q4TOTAL VALUE OF HOUSEHOLD REAL ESTATE HOLDINGS & HOME MORTGAGE DEBT
(trillion dollars, nsa)
Total Value of HouseholdReal Estate Holdings*
Home Mortgage Debt
Owners’ Equity inHousehold Real Estate
* Home mortgages plus owners equity in household real estate.Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States.
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Figure 26.
Predicting Real Estate
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52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 240
1
2
3
0
1
2
3
Q4
HOUSEHOLD REAL ESTATE VALUE & HOME MORTGAGES*(divided by Disposable Personal Income)
Divided by DPI
Home Mortgages
Household Real Estate*Owners’ Equity**
* Total market value of real estate held by households. All types of owner-occupied housing including farm houses and mobile homes, as well as secondhomes that are not rented, vacant homes for sale, and vacant land.
** Value of household real estate minus home mortgages.Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States.
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Figure 27.
52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2415
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
Q4
HOUSEHOLD OWNERS’ EQUITY IN REAL ESTATE & HOME MORTGAGES(as percent of market value of Household Real Estate*)
Divided by Value of Homes*
Home MortgagesOwners’ Equity**
* Total market value of real estate held by households. All types of owner-occupied housing including farm houses and mobile homes, as well as secondhomes that are not rented, vacant homes for sale, and vacant land.
** Value of household real estate minus home mortgages.Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States.
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Figure 28.
Predicting Real Estate
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80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24-250
-150
-50
50
150
250
350
450
550
650
750
850
950
1050
1150
1250
1350
-250
-150
-50
50
150
250
350
450
550
650
750
850
950
1050
1150
1250
1350
Q4
HOME MORTGAGE BORROWING(billion dollars, 4-quarter sum)
Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States.
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Figure 29.
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22160
220
280
340
400
460
520
580
640
700
760
820
880
940
1000
1060
1120
1180
160
220
280
340
400
460
520
580
640
700
760
820
880
940
1000
1060
1120
1180
Q4
HOME EQUITY LOANS*(billion dollars, sa)
* Loans made under home equity lines of credit and home equity loans secured by junior liens. Excludes home equity loans held by mortgage companiesand individuals.Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States.
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Figure 30.
Predicting Real Estate
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70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 220
1
2
3
4
0
1
2
3
4
Q4
CORPORATE BONDS OUTSTANDING(trillion dollars, nsa)
Financial Sector
Commercial BankingABS Issuers
Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States.
yard
eni.c
om
Figure 31.
85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
Q4
Q4
HOME MORTGAGES OUTSTANDING*(trillion dollars)
Home Mortgages Held By:US Government Agencies & GSEs**Asset-Backed Security IssuersUS-Chartered Depository Institutions
* Includes home equity loans.** Government-sponsored enterprises plus Agency- and GSE-backed mortgage pools.
Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States.
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Figure 32.
Predicting Real Estate
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2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021.0
.2
.4
.6
.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
.0
.2
.4
.6
.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
4/22
ASSET-BACKED COMMERCIAL PAPER & FED’S EMERGENCY LIQUIDITY FACILITY(trillion dollars)
Commercial PaperABS IssuersHeld by Fed’sC.P. Funding Facility
Source: Federal Reserve Board.
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Figure 33.
84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-20
0
20
40
60
80
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Q4
ALL FDIC-INSURED INSTITUTIONS: BAD DEBT PROVISIONS & CHARGE-OFFS(billion dollars, nsa)
Provisions for Bad Loans & Charge-OffsProvision for Loan & Lease LossesNet Charge-OffsProvision for Loan & Lease Losses MinusNet Charge-Offs
Source: Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Quarterly Banking Profile.
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Figure 34.
Predicting Real Estate
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84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
Q4
ALL FDIC-INSURED INSTITUTIONS: BAD DEBT PROVISIONS & CHARGE-OFFS(cumulative change since 1984, billion dollars)
Provisions for Bad Loans & Charge-OffsProvision for Loan & Lease LossesNet Charge-OffsProvision for Loan & Lease Loses MinusNet Charge-Offs
Source: Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Quarterly Banking Profile.
yardeni.com
Figure 35.
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Q4
FINANCIAL CORPORATIONS NET ISSUANCE OF BONDS & EQUITIES(billion dollars, 4-quarter sum)
Equities (ex-ETFs)Bonds
Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States.
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Figure 36.
Predicting Real Estate
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Feb
WORLD EXPORTS & PRODUCTION(yearly percent change)
Volume of World ExportsWorld Production
Source: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy.
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Figure 37.
III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
2009
Current data updated thru: Q4-2017
1961197019751982199120012009
REAL GDP(percent changes from business cycle troughs*)
* Troughs based on National Bureau of Economic Research, US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions. The short 12-month recovery fromJuly 1980 to July 1981 is excluded.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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Figure 38.
Predicting Real Estate
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I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV2008 2009 2010
.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0FED’S LIQUIDITY FACILITIES(trillion dollars, weekly)
Emergency Liquidity Facilities*Discount Window Borrowing
* The traditional discount window and crisis-related Term Auction Facility (TAF), Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF), Term Securities Lending Facility(TSLF), Commercial Paper Funding Facility (CPFF), Asset-Backed Commercial Paper Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility (AMLF),Money Market Investor Funding Facility (MMIFF), and the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF). Also included are bilateral currencyswap agreements with several foreign central banks.Source: Federal Reserve Board.
yard
eni.c
om
Figure 39.
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV2008 2009 2010
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650FED’S CENTRAL BANK LIQUIDITY SWAPS(billion dollars)
Source: Federal Reserve Board.
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Figure 40.
Predicting Real Estate
Page 20 / April 30, 2020 / Chapter 8 Charts: Predicting Real Estate www.yardeni.com
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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015.4
.8
1.2
1.6
2.0
2.4
2.8
3.2
3.6
4.0
4.4
4.8
.4
.8
1.2
1.6
2.0
2.4
2.8
3.2
3.6
4.0
4.4
4.8
QE1 QE2 QE3
FED’S ASSETS: 2008-2015*(trillion dollars)
Total AssetsUS Treasuries+ Agency Debt+ MBS
Note: QE1 (11/25/08) = Fed starts buying $1.24tn in mortgage securities. QE1 expanded (3/16/2009) = Fed starts buying $300bn in Treasuries.QE2 (11/3/10) = Fed starts buying $600bn in Treasuries. QE3 (9/13/12) = Fed starts buying $40bn/month in mortgage securities (open ended).QE3 expanded (12/12/12) = Fed starts buying $45bn/month in Treasuries.
* Average of daily figures for weeks ending Wednesday.
Source: Federal Reserve Board.
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Figure 41.
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015.0
.2
.4
.6
.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
.0
.2
.4
.6
.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
QE1 QE2 QE3
FED’S ASSETS: 2008-2015*(trillion dollars)
Agency Debt +MBS
US TreasurySecurities
MBS
Note: QE1 (11/25/08) = Fed starts buying $1.24tn in mortgage securities. QE1 expanded (3/16/2009) = Fed starts buying $300bn in Treasuries.QE2 (11/3/10) = Fed starts buying $600bn in Treasuries. QE3 (9/13/12) = Fed starts buying $40bn/month in mortgage securities (open ended).QE3 expanded (12/12/12) = Fed starts buying $45bn/month in Treasuries.
* Average of daily figures for weeks ending Wednesday.
Source: Federal Reserve Board.
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Figure 42.
Predicting Real Estate
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85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22.0
.5
1.0
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2.0
.0
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1.0
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2.0
Q4
Mar
AGENCY- & GSE-BACKED SECURITIES(trillion dollars, nsa)
Agency- & GSE-Backed Securities Held By:
Foreign Official Institutions*Rest of World
* Held by foreign official institutions at the Fed.Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States and Federal Reserve Board, Table H.4.1.
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Figure 43.
85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
2
4
6
8
10
0
2
4
6
8
10
Q4AGENCY- & GSE-BACKED SECURITIES OUTSTANDING(trillion dollars)
Total OutstandingTotal Outstanding MinusHeld by Fed
Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States.
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Figure 44.
Predicting Real Estate
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