• TAWS Implementation
• Runway Safety Initiative
• CAST Status
• TCAS Action Plan
• JIMDAT Status
• Data Mining
Kyle L OlsenKyle L OlsenKyle L. Olsen Aviation Safety Advisor, FAA Kyle L. Olsen Aviation Safety Advisor, FAA Seoul , 27-28 April 2009
COMMERCIAL AVIATION COMMERCIAL AVIATION COMMERCIAL AVIATION COMMERCIAL AVIATION SAFETY TEAMSAFETY TEAM (CAST)(CAST)SAFETY TEAMSAFETY TEAM (CAST)(CAST)
2020 Safety Plan StatusF b 2009
2
February 5, 2009
CAST Safety Plan - February 5, 2009In QuestionQ
1%Late6%
On Tgt
70 Safety Enhancements48 Complete22 U dOn Tgt
24%
17
22 Underway4
Complete69%
CompleteOn Tgt
48
LateIn Question
CHANGES from last meeting SE-47 CLOSED.[CRM for Tower Controllers]
32020 Plan Risk Reduction Estimate 74 %
2020 CAST SAFETY PLAN – WORKING SEs(Total Plan – 70 SE; 48 Complete; 22 Underway)
101R1AIA
39ANM
53ARA
120ATA
121ATA
125R1ATA
127R2AIR
131R1ATA
133R1AIA
134R2AIA
136ATA
159R1ATO
165R3AFS
169R1AFS
170R2AIA
172R1AFS
175R1ATA
179R1AFS-1
180ATS-1
181R1AAS
182R1ATO-1
183R1AFS-1
184MVA
185RNAV
ON TRACKLATE
SE #LOOSEC
ActionNeededCOMPLETED
4
IN QUESTIONLATE OP
Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)
Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)(CAST)
Joint Implementation Data Analysis Team (JIMDAT(CAST)
Joint Implementation Data Analysis Team (JIMDAT
JIMDAT UpdateJIMDAT UpdateppCommercial Aviation Safety Team
Herndon VACommercial Aviation Safety Team
Herndon VAHerndon, VAFebruary 5, 2009
Herndon, VAFebruary 5, 2009
Jay Pardee, FAAPaul Russell, BoeingJay Pardee, FAAPaul Russell, Boeing
Miscellaneous Miscellaneous ––Bi d ik D bBi d ik D bBirdstrike DatabaseBirdstrike Database
Request for manufacturer support through Request for manufacturer support through AIA subcommittee to update engine AIA subcommittee to update engine bi d t k d t b ( tl th hbi d t k d t b ( tl th hbirdstrke database (currently goes through birdstrke database (currently goes through 2000) to validate size and effect 2000) to validate size and effect assumptions and calculationsassumptions and calculationsassumptions and calculationsassumptions and calculations
Propose as a CAST activity Propose as a CAST activity –– bring results bring results back to CAST determine if any CASTback to CAST determine if any CASTback to CAST, determine if any CAST back to CAST, determine if any CAST action Req’d.action Req’d.
ATA Safety Council CAST ClassATA Safety Council CAST ClassATA Safety Council CAST ClassATA Safety Council CAST ClassHeld January 8, 2009; 14 airline Directors of Held January 8, 2009; 14 airline Directors of
SafetySafetySafetySafety 33--1/2 hr training session covering CAST and 1/2 hr training session covering CAST and
ASIAS history and current productsASIAS history and current productsASIAS history and current productsASIAS history and current productsDOS’s will brief their carriers on material covered; DOS’s will brief their carriers on material covered;
have requested condensed briefing for a futurehave requested condensed briefing for a futurehave requested condensed briefing for a future have requested condensed briefing for a future session involving senior managementsession involving senior management
Feedback that shared data efforts and quality of Feedback that shared data efforts and quality of q yq yASIAS analytical products were impressiveASIAS analytical products were impressive
Directed Study: Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System (TCAS) Resolution
Advisory (RA) Analysis
Presented to CAST
Mike Borer, jetBlue
Presented to CAST
5 February 2009
jVince Zaccardi, jetBluePat Massimini, MITRE
84 February 2009
5 February 2009
Study Objectives• Leverage quantitative data sets to assess TCAS RA landscape
throughout the NAS
• Utilize NAS-wide results and expert input to guide focusedUtilize NAS wide results and expert input to guide focused investigations at key airports
– Categorize RAs by degree of risk– Group by operational situation: closely spaced parallel approach IFR / VFR– Group by operational situation: closely spaced parallel approach, IFR / VFR
separation, ... – Identify common threads / contributing factors
• Determine compliance rates and factors that contribute to observed• Determine compliance rates, and factors that contribute to observed rates
• Measure TCAS RA event rates experienced by international carriers while operating at US airportswhile operating at US airports
– Determine whether those rates exceed the rates experienced by domestic carriers inside US airspace
– Determine whether those rates exceed the rates that would otherwise
94 February 2009
Determine whether those rates exceed the rates that would otherwise occur outside US airspace
Data Sources and Analysis
NOP (National Offload Program radar surveillance data)Run simulations that will encompass all carriers and traffic to better estimate RA rates and degree of risk. Perform domestic / foreign comparisons. (Provides intruder information.)
TOPA (TCAS OperationalFOQAAssess NAS wide TCAS RA landscape. Investigate compliance with advisories
TOPA (TCAS Operational Performance Assessment)Debug, tune, and assess accuracy of simulation software. Mode-S downlink provides information similarcompliance with advisories.
(Lacks intruder information.)downlink provides information similar to FOQA, and is enhanced with surveillance radar data.
Text Reports (ASAP, ASRS, OE) Help get the story behind the numbers at selected airports.
International Data (AEA, AAPA text reports and event counts) Facilitate comparisons between domestic and foreign RA rates
104 February 2009
foreign RA rates.
Summary and Next Steps
• Continue NAS-wide lookContin e anal sis of target areas• Continue analysis of target areas
• Drill down at selected airports• Debug and tune TCAS simulation softwareDebug and tune TCAS simulation software
using TOPA data• Run TCAS simulation software with NOP
data for all selected airports– Use intruder information to assess risk– Perform domestic / international comparisonsPerform domestic / international comparisons
• Complete ASAP report review
114 February 2009
Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)
Terrain(CAST)
Terrain Awareness and Warning SystemWarning System
(TAWS) Study
February 5th, 2009
Executive Steering Group:Jay Pardee Paul Russell
Working Group Chairs:Steve EricksonVivek Sood
Analytical Task
Conduct an in-depth analysis of selected airports, (including Conduct an in depth analysis of selected airports, (including those identified in VSIS EGPWS study - Reno, San Diego, San Francisco, Oakland, Las Vegas, Albuquerque, Burbank, and Boise) to develop mitigation strategies for—Boise) to develop mitigation strategies for Flight crewmember desensitization to TAWS warnings caused by the
occurrence of unwanted warnings when the aircraft is not in imminent danger.g
TAWS warnings triggered by the interaction of airspace design (for example, minimum vectoring altitudes) and aircraft flight path trajectories.
Potential incompatibilities between aircraft and air traffic control warning systems.
The role of Traffic Collision Avoidance System (TCAS) alerts issued f ll i i TAWS ifollowing crew reaction to a TAWS warning.
Next Stepsp
Request CAST approval for JIMDAT to develop:q pp p SE-184 Evaluate MVA airspace designs in relation to terrain and traffic
flows in terrain airportsflows in terrain airports SE-185 RNAV or other procedures to reduce unnecessary terrain alerts
and to provide better separation from terrain and to provide better separation from terrain Develop Supplemental Implementation Plan for SE-120 Substantiate rationale for installing enhanced TAWS software
(218 or equivalent) and GPS (also suitable for DOS)(218 or equivalent) and GPS (also suitable for DOS) Develop business model for GPS
Provides rationale for DOS use as well
Overview ofAccident Risk Metrics Applied to the
ASIAS FOQA Archive
Presented to CAST
Doug Schaefer, Austin DigitalDoug Schaefer, Austin DigitalPat Massimini, MITRE
5 F b 2009
154 February 2009
5 February 2009
Metric Development
St 1St 1 St 2St 2Stage 1: Analytical Data Quality Review
Stage 1: Analytical Data Quality Review
Stage 2: Operational Data Quality Review
Stage 2: Operational Data Quality Review2.97 million
flights from 5
Iterate on data quality profilesIterate on data quality profilesFilter results to
eliminate known problem events
Filter results to eliminate known problem events
airlines
Iterate on event profiles
Iterate on event profiles
problem events or parameters
problem events or parameters
Today’s results Will complete over next 2 months
164 February 2009
Current State of the ArtCurrent State-of-the-Artin Data Mining Methodsg
Presentation to CAST
Amy PritchettNASA Aviation Safety Program DirectorNASA Aviation Safety Program Director
With Assistance from NASA Data-mining Team
Feb 5, 2009
Domains with Vast D t Mi i R hData Mining Research Science
Earth Science / Climate Earth Science / Climate Space
Medicine Business Business
Credit Card Fraud Market Trends Intrusion Detection
Similarities abound across these domains!
Directed Marketing Engineering
AviationS Space
All Others! Web Analysis
Google/Yahoo! Searches
National Aeronautics and Space Administration 18
Google/Yahoo! Searches Blogosphere
Summary: Data Mining Methods
Extensions to MonitoringC B M lti di i l
Monitoring Can Be Multi-dimensional Can Be Based on Pre-defined Definitions of
‘Nominal’ – or Can Automatically Identify the ‘Off-nominal’
Trending Anomaly Detection
P d l C li Spans a Range of Phenomenon (FDR, Cockpit Switches, Sky’s the Limit…)
Procedural Compliance
Extensions to Text MiningC B B d P d fi d C t i
Text Mining
P di ti Prediction
Can Be Based on Pre-defined Categories –or Automatically Identify ‘Features’
Can Apply Natural Language Techniques
Extensions to Information Protection Information Protection
Prediction Can Identify Degradation Before Failure
Prediction
National Aeronautics and Space Administration 19
Must be Done Very Carefully Extended Methods May Facilitate Analysis
Runway Safetyy yInitiative
Jim BurinJim BurinDirector of Technical Programs
Regional PerspectiveRegional PerspectiveAccident Rates Vary by Region of the WorldAccident Rates Vary by Region of the WorldWestern-built transport hull loss accidents, by airline domicile, 1998 through 2007
Europe0 7
C.I.S.1
United Statesand Canada
0.4
0.7China
0.3
Middle Eastdd e ast2.3
Africa10.0
Asia2.1
(ExcludingChina)
Latin Americaand Caribbean
2.1
Oceania0.0
World1.1
Accidents permillion departures
1 Insufficient fleet experience to generate reliable rate.
Regional PerspectiveRegional PerspectiveAccident Rates Vary by Region of the WorldAccident Rates Vary by Region of the WorldWestern-built transport hull loss accidents, by airline domicile, 1998 through 2007
Europe0 7
C.I.S.1ESSI
COSCAP CIS
United Statesand Canada
0.4
0.7China
0.3
Middle EastCAST
70 SEs
ESSI35 SEs JAA11 SEs EASA62% reduction
COSCAP NA, SA, SEA40 SEs in work60% reduction
dd e ast2.3
Africa10.0
Asia2.1
(ExcludingChina)
48 complete22 in work74% reduction COSCAP GulfCOSCAP
BAG
Latin Americaand Caribbean
2.1
Oceania0.0PAAST
CFIT and ALARASET
World1.1
Accidents permillion departures
1 Insufficient fleet experience to generate reliable rate.
Thank youThank you
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