CAPACITY BUILDING WORKSHOP:
BUILDING CLIMATE RESILIENT
AGRICULTURE IN PACIFIC SIDS
Integration Opportunities
Salesa Nihmei I Meteorology and Climate Officer I SPREP I Samoa
9-11 August 2016 Tanoa Hotel, Nadi, Fiji Islands
1. Overview of SPREP and its Meteorology
Programme/Partnerships
2. The Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) and
Progress in the Pacific
3. Application of Climate Services in the region
4. Challenges and Opportunities
5. Additional Resources and Tools
Overview
1. Overview of SPREP and its Meteorology
Programme/Partnerships
Introducing Secretariat of the Pacific
Regional Environment Programme (SPREP)
• Working for over 40 years in the Pacific region
• Inter-governmental organisation
– The Pacific regional agency for the environment
– Recognized as the lead agency on biodiversity, climate change, waste management and environmental monitoring and governance in the Pacific Region
• 26 member countries
– 21 Pacific Island countries & territories
– 5 ‘metropolitan’ states (AU, NZ, FR, USA, UK)
SPREP is fully accountable to member governments
through an annual SPREP Meeting and Ministerial Meeting
• Over 90 staff
Climate Change Division
Climate Change Division
Adaptation
Science and Policy
Mitigation
Knowledge Management
Pacific Met Desk Partnership
Pacific Meteorological Strategy 2012-2021 guides
the priorities of the region
• The PIMS has 14 Pacific Key
Outcomes (PKO) that outline the main
priorities highlighted by the NMSs.
• The implementation of each of the
PKO's are further separated into (87)
Pacific National Priority Actions and
(68) Pacific Regional Priority
Actions Under each of the PKO's
• Currently under mid-term Review
14 Pacific Priorities for NMSs
Priority 1, 2 and 3:
• Improved aviation, marine and public
weather services
Priority 4:
• Improved end-to-end Multi-Hazard
Early Warning Systems (MHEWS)
Priority 5:
Improved EWS Flood
Priority 6:
• Improved Climate information and
prediction Services
Priority 7:
• Enhanced infrastructure (data and
information services) for weather,
climate and water
Priority 8:
• Preservation of Historical Data
Priority 9:
• Observations of Atmospheric Chemistry
Priority 10:
• Capable and effective NMSs
Priority 11:
• Education, training and Capacity development activities
Priority 12:
• Funding and resource mobilization
Priority 13:
• Strategic Partnerships
Priority 14:
• Effective and efficient PMC (with linkages to RA-V)
• Development of a Pacific Roadmap for Climate Services to be more inclusive of Sectors
1. The Pacific
Meteorological Council
(PMC)
0
20
40
60
80
100
PMC-1 PMC-2 PMC-3
Number of Participants to the PMC
Majuro-2011
Nadi-2013
Nuku’alofa-2015
2. Pacific Meteorological Council and the Ministerial
Meeting on Meteorology
• First Pacific Ministerial Meeting on
Meteorology (PMMM-1) held in Tonga
in July 2015.
• Endorsement of the Nuku’alofa
Ministerial Declaration on
sustainable weather and climate
services for a resilient Pacific
Regional Ministerial
Meeting
PMC-3 + Partners
“Note that weather and climate services are not an option but are a responsibility and a basic human right”
Working Groups to Support the PMC
• Establishment of a Pacific Island Panel
(Working group) on Aviation Services to
deal with and advise with the
implementation of Aviation weather
Services (including looking at Quality
Management and Cost Recovery)
• Establishment of a Pacific Island Panel
(Working group) on Marine and Ocean
services (including coastal inundation
and tsunami)
• Formalised a Pacific Islands Panel of
Education, Training and Research
(including a call for a Regional Training
Centre)
• Report from the Pacific Island Climate
Services (PICS) Panel dealing with RCC,
climate prediction
PMC
Climate Services
Communications and Infrastructu
re
Aviation Services
Marine and Ocean
Services
Education Training
and Research
Pacific Islands Climate Services (PICS) Panel
• Establishment and support to
the meetings of the Pacific
Islands Climate Services
(PICS) Panel.
• NIWA (NZ) is Chair and PNG is
the Vice Chairman of the PICS
Panel
• Members include (NOAA, BoM,
NIWA, Meteo-France, SPREP,
USP, SPC, WMO RA-V, PNG,
Vanuatu, Niue, Palau, Samoa
(Water), Tonga (Agriculture))
• 3 meetings to date and
developed an Action Plan
First PICS Panel Meeting, August 2014 to Finalise its ToR and draft its Action
2. The Global Framework for Climate Services
(GFCS) and Progress in the Pacific
Climate Database Management
System A tool to manage, organise and store weather records
– To describe the climate
– To describe climate variability
– To understand climate change and its impacts
PCCSP, 2012
Why are climate data important?
Data Digitization
Data Storage
• PAPER FORMS
• CLICOM (introduced by WMO)
• SPREADSHEETS
• CLIMSOFT
• CliDE/CliDESC (still needs support)
PCCSP, Samoa
Global Framework for Climate Services
User Interface
Innovative mechanism that will:
• Provide ways for climate service users and providers to monitor requirements for climate services
• Provide forum for dialogue to understand needs of users and capabilities of providers
• Identify products and services requirements of users
• Increase the literacy of climate service users
• Monitor user satisfaction with the overall performance of the Framework
Weather • Climate • Water 18
WMO RCC Status Worldwide
Designated RCC-Networks
RCC-Networks in Demo Phase
BCC TCC
NEACC
ICPAC
ACMAD
CIIFEN
RCCs in Demonstration Phase
RCCs Proposed
RCC-Networks Proposed
SADC-CSC
Designated RCCs
North America Initiative
AGRRHYMET
Climate Services
• Climate Products and
Information are NOT Services
unless they are used for
Decision Making
Value of Seasonal Forecasting
• Seasonal Forecasting is a
potential tool to inform
community short term
adaptation actions and long-
term adaptation design
Why?
– Many Communities in the region identify climate change impacts
to the impact of extreme events and climate variability
– If communities adapt to climate extremes and variability, they will
be better prepared for long term changes in the climate
– Seasonal forecasting can inform short-term and community-
based adaptation actions while we await CCA funds to be
available for larger interventons
PMC Support for Effective Climate Services
• Majuro 2011 workshop to
investigate organizational
structures and functions to
support robust and sustained
climate services at the regional
level (SPREP/NOAA)
• Suva 2013 convened the
Pacific Islands Climate Services
Forum (USP/NOAA)
Pacific Islands Climate Services Forum, Jan 2013
Climate Services Training, August 2011
Regional User-Interface Platforms for Climate Information
• Establishment of the Pacific Islands Climate Outlook Forum (PICOF-1) targeting the Water Sector (SPREP, WMO, USP, SPC,…)
• Regional Climate Statement
• PICOF-2 October 2016-Nadi
PICOF -1 Hosted at USP, October 2015
3. Application of Climate Services in the region
Seasonal Forecasting Capability
• Online Forums for NMHSs (OCOF)
• Climate Bulletins (Red Cross)
• Developed by the BoM and now transferred to SPREP
Climate and Oceans Support Program for the Pacific (COSPPac) SCOPIC – Statistical Forecasting Capability used in the region for over 10 years
Seasonal Forecasting Capability
• New Online Climate Prediction System (CLIK℗) installed at SPREP http://clikp.sprep.org
• Up to 12 Dynamical Models data available on CLIK℗ to provide advanced 3-6monthly outlooks
• To reduce damages from extreme climate events through disaster risk management,
• Improved monitoring and prediction of severe weather for coastal communities
• Better data management and infrastructure to facilitate data collection
• Improving the quality of products delivered to end-users
• Develop early warning communication strategies for National Met Services.
Seasonal Forecasting Capability
• Rainfall Forecast
• Developed by NIWA supported by SPREP
• Water Stress (3 month outlook)
Building climate and disaster ready communities through
improved National Meteorological Services
• Implemented by SPREP in collaboration with the
Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) and partners:
• 14 Pacific island countries
• World Meteorological Organization
• International Federation of Red Cross & Red Crescent
Societies (IFRC)
• Australian Bureau of Meteorology
• Other Partners
3. Finnish-Pacific Project on Reduced vulnerability of Pacific island country’s villagers’ livelihoods to the effects of climate change
2013-2016
Finland-Pacific Project on Reduced vulnerability of Pacific island country’s villagers’
livelihoods to the effects of climate change
Direct support to NMSs…
• Capacity building through technical trainings for NMSs
• Introduction of the SmartMet weather forecasting system to 6 NMSs (Fiji, PNG, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga and
Vanuatu)
• Introduction of the SmartAlert warning visualization software
• Rehabilitation of silent Regional Basic Synoptic Stations
Communication and Partnerships to reach Communities
National Meteorological
Services
Gov.. Sectors
Community Mobilsers
(Red Cross)
Media Others
Communities (USERS)
60-80% of the Pacific Population
Face to face
Working with Communities
Climate Information discussed in Communities
Climate Early Warning System (CLEWS)
• Put today’s weather into the context of the past climate
record
• Understand the potential severity of future events, given
knowledge of historical conditions (including uncertainty)
• Sectoral Application of climate Services is guided by a
Policy approved by Cabinet
15. Mt. Talu
12. Mt. Tagotala
31.5km 17.8km
15.3km
4.5km
10.5km
24.5km
9.6km 27.3km
12.0km
13.7km
20.3km
9.5km
5.8km
7.5km
: SMD Head Office
: AWOS (Airport Weather Observation System)
: AWS (Automatic Weather System)
: Repeater System
Upolu Island
Savaii Island
14. Vaisala
13. Le Piu Tai
11. Tuasivi
10. Mt. Valusia
9. Maota Airport
8. Manono
7. Faleolo International Airport
1. SMD Head Office
2. Mt. Vaea 6. Lufilufi
5. Le Mafa
3. Mt. Fiamoe
4. Togitogiga
Site Location Map
TOGITOGIGA (AWS)
CLEWS
Climate-hydro services and
early warning system
CLEWS
Climate and hydrometric
observations
CLEWS
Live data views via web
services
CLEWS
CliDE climate data
management system
CLEWS
CliDEsc data and climate
services
River stage
River stage + rain
Rainfall accumulation
Fire hazard warning
Forest Fire Weather Index – 16 Sep 15
• Afulilo Hydropower Scheme is primary renewable energy supplier in Samoa.
• Output sensitive to climate variability.
• Water balance model designed to quantify dam level response to rainfall, energy demand and evaporation.
• Model will predict dam volume based on given rainfall and power output.
• Provide forewarning of dam levels in order to make operational decisions.
• Assess the impact of ENSO phases on dam storage levels.
Hydropower Management: Afulilo Dam, Samoa
• Collaboration between COSPPac, Solomon Islands Met. Service and Ministry of Health.
• Provide monthly or seasonal forecasts of
relative malaria incidence.
• Pilot scheme aims to provide forecasts for
Temotu, Guadalcanal and Central.
• Expansion to other provinces in 2014.
• Categorical warnings:
– low/moderate/high/extreme
– low/medium/high
• Include spatial map of warning levels in a
bulletin format for stakeholders..
GOAL: Use climate information to improve
malaria control in the Solomon Islands by
providing early warning for periods of
heightened malaria incidence.
Linking Climate and Malaria
Summer droughts forecast in strong El Niño conditions
4. Challenges and Opportunities Integration
Capacity of the NMHSs in the Pacific
• Capacity Varies from country to country
Regional Consultation on Climate Services
for Pacific Small Island States
April 2014, Rarotonga, Cook Islands
• Identify “insertion points/entry points/windows” where
climate services can be applied to support Agriculture
Activities
– El Nino and Livestock, ENSO and Alley Cropping, Flooding
and lowland farming
• lack of coverage of actual climate or rainfall monitoring
stations across the island(s)
• Currently a low uptake of climate services in the
agriculture sector - 3 month outlooks are not so useful
and rather longer term services are needed
• Training exchanges will be a must on climate services,
particularly if considering the use of extension officers
who are working directly with farmers
Discussion on Agriculture and Climate
• Climate information could use a number of informative tools
such as maps, statistics, and that the inclusion of these in
ways that make the climate information more easily
understood either by the intermediate user (say the
Agriculture/Fisheries researcher or extension officer) or the
final user (farmer/fisherman).
• The fostering of a relationship between the agriculture and
NMS will take time to develop.
• Being aware of the climate services available and their
applications is not generally known unless agriculture
researchers actively look for it, or climate services of NMS do
the same (in looking for end users to their products).
Discussion on Agriculture and climate
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/pccsp/
(data is password protected)
Monitoring Network
Approx. 100 station records for 23 countries and territories (excluding the Aust. and NZ mainland) – 2010-11 Data can be modified by participating national meteorological services
National Platforms
for discussion
• Agro-Met
Summits
• Identify
agriculture
activities and
how and when
climate
information can
be applied
VMGD 1. Climate/Change
Information 2. Seasonal Forecast
DARD (VMGD, GiZ) 1. Translate Information for
Farmers 2. What to do & how to do it?
3. Report on Impacts
Impact Database (GIS) ENSO events
Tropical Cyclone Volcanic Eruption
Other observed Impacts
Agriculture Extension Officers
1. Inform local farmers of probable ensuing climate
2. Introduce climate resistant crops
Farmers Associations
1. Inform members of probable ensuing climate
2. Provide reports
Commercial and Traditional Farmers 1. All Farmers informed of the expected climate and what to do
1
4
7 6
3
2
5
8
9
1. Delivery Options • Bulletins (soft/hard
copies • Quarterly Seminar
/workshops • Radio/TV/News paper
2. Delivery Options • Bulletins (soft/hard
copies • Quarterly Seminar
/workshops
Solutions Hotspots Adaptation
Projects Workshops
/Seminars
Effective Communication to Reach the Last Mile: A Proposed Approach through an MoA for Agriculture
Products Developed
• 3 Agro-Met Summits
• Agro-met Bulletin for Farmers and
NGO’s
• ENSO Sector Action Booklet
• ENSO Animation – Cloud Nasara
• Community based Rainfall Network
• Community-based Farmers Field School
• Resource Materials (Animal feed, food
replication)
• Communication, Partnership and
Engagement Strategy
Key Messaging and Communication Needs
Climate Crab: Describe ENSO in the Pacific
Climate Nasara: Describe ENSO in Vanuatu
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AMthanwiOWE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sIUSWEftN4w
• FAO • SPREP • SPC • USP • WMO • NIWA • IFAD • Vanuatu • Samoa • Tonga
Project Proposal
MAF + Ag/Soil Scientists
MetService + Climate Scientists
Partnership
Specialised Team
Regional and Global Organisations (e.g. WMO, FAO, SPREP, SPC, USP…)
Alignment of: • Strategies • Projects • Funding
NGO Networks (e.g. Red Cross)
Farmers, Village, Church, Women’s
Networks
MAF Extension Officers
Farmers + Communities
Alig
nm
ent
wit
h T
rad
itio
nal
K
no
wle
dge
A
lignm
ent w
ith N
ation
al Strategies (e.g. Su
s Devt, Fo
od
Sec, DR
R, H
ealth)
A Practical Option for Integration of Climate and Agriculture at the National Level
• Networks
– Extension Services
– PIRAS
– PIFON
– NGO’s
• Type of information and products that is suitable for
dissemination ?
• Training needs and which level?
• Institutionalization ? (Legislation, Policy, Staffing, Agreements,
etc)
• Harmonisation
Use of Existing Arrangements
Platforms for exchange of information/integration/
Capacity Development
Regional Forums
• PICOF – Pacific Island Climate Outlook Forum
• Currently organised once a year in October
National Forums
• NCOF – National Climate Outlook Forums
• Now established in Kiribati, PNG, Vanuatu and soon in Fiji and Tonga
Community based field
Schools
• Entry Points/application
Climate Frameworks: Platforms for Integration
(from NMSs)
•Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS)
Global
•Pacific Implementation Roadmap for Climate Services
•how sectors can lead with the integration
•Instructed by the Nuku’alofa Ministerial Declaration
•Roundtable discussion in October 16
• Pacific Island Climate Services Panel
Regional
•National Framework for Climate Services (Vanuatu and soon Fiji)
•Climate Services are established in NMHSs to provide support National
5. Additional Resources and Tools
• Pacific Climate Change Portal
• National Climate Change Portals
– Fiji
– Vanuatu
– Tonga
• Ocean Portal/Climate
– BoM
– NOAA
Climate Portals
http://cosppac.bom.gov.au/products-and-services/ocean-portal/
Climate Change in the Pacific (PCCSP)
Volume 2: Climate Change in the South Pacific:
Scientific Assessment and new Research
Volume 1: Climate Change in the South Pacific:
Country Reports
Other Tools
•http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/history/tracks/
www.pacificclimatechangescience.org/animations/climatecrab/
https://www.niwa.co.nz/climate/icu
Climate Futures Tool
Which Countries
14 PICT are able to assess climate
projections
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