Business Issues to 2020

16 February 2010

Phillip AllenResearch Manager

Australian Business Foundation

researcher activist futurist thought leader intelligence sourceresearcher activist futurist thought leader intelligence source

• Introduction

• Reflecting on the past and future

• Future Revisited - Four Alternative Scenarios

• Snapshot towards 2020

Discuss the concepts as we step through them

Agenda

• Research Manager Australian Business Foundation

• Past: Analyst at IDC

• PhD Student University of New South Wales

• Masters eCommerce - Deakin University

• Economics Degree - University of Newcastle

Introduction

www.abfoundation.com.auw.au

The Nucleon…

Alternative Futures: Scenarios for Business in Australia to 2015• Published September 1999

• Four pictures of the future

The future arrived quickly

The Future Revisited• Published July 2009

• How our picture of the future was unfolding and refresh them for the next decade.

7

Four Alternative Scenarios

Brave Old World Green is Gold

First Global Nation Sound the Retreat

Globalisation trends continues and Australia rides the wave

Backlash and decay of globalisation with a resurgence of protectionism

Resting on our laurels, resistance to change and lost opportunities

Recognised the impact of environment and of sustainable business practice

Snapshot to 2020 – drivers of change

• Energy and Resources Conscious 21st Century

• Changing Global Economic Geography

• Patterns of Work and Demand for Skilled People

• Unleashing Innovation as a Prescription for Prosperity

• An Outward-looking Australia

Energy and Resources Conscious 21st Century

• Environmental agenda is on the mainstream agenda

• Tough decisions & new trade-offs

• There are also opportunities

Changing Global Economic Geography

• Decoupling of the USA from the rest of the world

• However, USA still remains the primary engine of global growth, it is unwise to write off the USA

• Will China get older and more polluted before it becomes wealthy?

Patterns of Work and Demand for Skilled People

• How we work and who participates has structurally changed

• Urgent need for Australia to become a higher-skilled, more knowledge-intensive producer in response to global pressures

Unleashing Innovation for Prosperity

• Active ingredient is using knowledge to do something new and valuable for customers and communities

• Australia facing a ‘prosperity paradox’

• Opportunities to innovate by problem solving

An Outward-looking Australia

• Thinking big and delivering transformation in key areas that we share with the global community

• To advance our interests at home we must increasingly be engaged with other nations

• ‘Splendid Isolation’ is not feasible

Navigating between Inaction and Hype

Can we envisage and deliver transformation for a big Australia?

• Economy, infrastructure, our environment, farmers, health care, indigenous Australia, the arts, national security, and strengthening our communities and ensure nobody is left out of Australia’s future

Business Issues to 2020

The Western Sydney IT Cluster – 16 February 2010

Phillip AllenResearch ManagerAustralian Business Foundation