BUFFALO NIAGARALABOR MARKET ASSESSMENT 2010WHO’S YOUR ECONOMY?
University at Buffalo Regional Institute
Buffalo Niagara Enterprise
Sponsored by:
CONTEXT AND APPROACH
Premise: a regional economy IS its labor market
Scope: eight-county Buffalo Niagara
Time: six-month effort, 2010
Engagement: Project Advisory Group, consultation
Labor market stakeholders, perspectives
Regional employers, survey responses
Approach: imagined interview with prospective employers
IMAGINING THE CEO’S QUESTIONS
WHAT DOES THE REGIONAL ECONOMY LOOK LIKE?
WHAT IS THE REGIONAL DEMAND FOR LABOR?
WHAT IS THE REGIONAL SUPPLY OF LABOR?
WHO IS ENTERING AND EXITING THE
WORKFORCE?
WHAT ARE WAGES LIKE IN THE REGION?
WHAT ABOUT UNIONS IN THE REGION?
WHAT DOES THE REGIONAL ECONOMY LOOK LIKE?
The Big
Picture
WHAT DOES THE REGIONAL ECONOMY LOOK LIKE?
More than ever before,
Buffalo Niagara’s economy
mirrors that of the
nation.
Industry Composition by Total Employment, 2009
Total Jobs = ~660,000
WHAT DOES THE REGIONAL ECONOMY LOOK LIKE?
% Total Employment in
Manufacturing and Financial/Health/Education/Professional Services,
Buffalo Niagara and U.S., 1970 to 2009
Manufacturing no longer dominates
Service jobs now drive the
regional economy
Region resembles the nation, making it less subject to “boom
and bust” of less diversified economies
% Total Employment in Manufacturing,
Buffalo Niagara and U.S., 1970 to 2009
WHAT IS THE REGIONAL DEMAND FOR LABOR?
Job growth in health services, professional &
business services, leisure and hospitality,
education, and financial
activities.
Job decline in manufacturing,
communications & information, and
trade, transportation & utilities.
Pct. change in jobs, 2001-2008
WHAT IS THE REGIONAL SUPPLY OF LABOR?
63%
37%
Roughly two-thirds are
employed or seeking
employment, constituting a
workforce of nearly 800,000.
The Buffalo Niagara labor
supply consists of 1.2 million
persons age 16+.
WHAT IS THE REGIONAL SUPPLY OF LABOR?
Age 55+ workers are more
dominant in the regional
workforce relative to U.S. and some
metro comparisons.
Age 25-34 workers are under-
represented in the regional workforce relative to U.S. and
some metro comparisons.
WHO IS ENTERING AND EXITING THE WORKFORCE?
Educational institutions produce a local labor
pool of 30,000+ potential workers
annually.
10,000 workers will
retire annually.
Without new job creation, job entrants
face a tight market; given grad degrees,
skilled trade labor may be in short supply.
WHAT ARE WAGES LIKE IN THE REGION?
Wages tend to fall below
national averages for
higher-paying occupations;
wages are generally
higher for goods-
producing jobs.
A stand-alone Wage & Salary report
offers details.
WHAT ABOUT UNIONS IN THE REGION?
Within sectors, the 17% private sector
union rate compares to 78% for public
sector workers.
Estimated Unionized Jobs among the Public and Private Sector in Buffalo Niagara Region, 2009
Across the public and private sectors,
roughly 192,000, or 29%, of the region’s
job are unionized.
WHAT ABOUT UNIONS IN THE REGION?
While still above national levels, private
sector unionization is
declining in the metro area.
% Union Membership Among Private Sector Workers in the
Buffalo-Niagara Falls Metropolitan Area, 1986-2009
26%
17%
SNAPSHOT OF BNE TARGET INDUSTRIES
Roughly, a 40% share of the
economy
Employment as a share of total economy in Buffalo
Niagara, ranked by industry, 2009
Tourism
Advanced Manufacturing
Green
Back Office
Logistics
Life Sciences
Agribusiness
SNAPSHOT OF BNE TARGET INDUSTRIES
For each target industry, the
report provides…
Number of firms
Number of employees
Top ten occupations
Wage range
Workforce by degrees
Workforce preparedness
BNE TARGET INDUSTRIES
Firms…
Where are the firms and how large are they?
Tourism
firms…
Agribusiness
firms…
Size of firm, by# of employees…
…by size of firm
…and by degree ofconcentration
HIGHLOW
Advanced Mfg
firms…
Back Office firms…
Green
firms…
Logistics
firms…
Life
Sciences
firms…
For each county, the report provides…
Number of firms
Number of jobs
Number in labor force
% employment in public sector
Avg. private sector wage
COUNTY COMPARISONSOverview
Educational attainment
Commuting patterns
Top fields of study for county-based higher education
COUNTY COMPARISONS
Erie has highest ratio –at 5 jobs
to every 10 people
Genesee, Chautauqua
and Cattaraugus
have 4 jobs for every 10 people
Niagara, Wyoming,
Orleans and Allegany have 3
Job Concentration
COUNTY COMPARISONS
In general, counties with
smaller populations and
fewer job opportunities
tend to rely more heavily on
the public sector for jobs
Public Sector Employment
PROSPECTS
Projections through 2016 by the NYS
Dept of Labor show a continued shift
away from manufacturing to growth in service
professions, led by health services.
F O R T H E B U F F A L O N I A G A R A L A B O R M A R K E T
Projected Job
Gains or Losses to
2016,
By Industry…
…per year
The shift toward knowledge-based
jobs may signal opportunities to
retain college-educated job force
entrants.
Continued population aging; workers age 55+ grow faster than nationally
Projected 20,000 retirees per year beginning in 2020, highest in health services, education and
manufacturing
Educated workforce entrants will remain ample
PROSPECTS
What else might we expect? …
F O R T H E B U F F A L O N I A G A R A L A B O R M A R K E T
To keep educated youth, knowledge-based sectors must grow
BUFFALO NIAGARALABOR MARKET ASSESSMENT 2010WHO’S YOUR ECONOMY?
University at Buffalo Regional Institute
Buffalo Niagara Enterprise
Sponsored by:
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