NPFMC -- Jane DiCosimo
NMFS -- Loh-Lee LowMike SiglerGrant Thompson Lowell FritzAndy Smoker
USF&W -- Kathy Kuletz ADF&G -- Ivan Vining
Kristin MabreyUniv.Alaska -- Brenda Norcross WDF&W -- Farron Wallace Halibut Comm-- Bill Clark
BSAI Plan Team Members (12 Members)
Total U.S.LandingsTotal U.S.Landings
4.9 million mt (1998-2001)4.9 million mt (1998-2001)
24%
51%
10%5%
10% NortheastSoutheastAlaskaPacific CoastWestern Pacific
Alaska LandingsAlaska Landings
2.5 million mt (1998-2001)2.5 million mt (1998-2001)
2%
15%2% 0%
81%
GroundfishShellfishSalmonHerringNearshore
Alaska Groundfish LandingsAlaska Groundfish Landings2.0 million mt (1998-2001)2.0 million mt (1998-2001)
10%2%
88%
Bering Sea-AleutiansGulf of Alaska
Halibut
Ex-Vessel Value of Alaska Ex-Vessel Value of Alaska
LandingsLandings2.5 million mt (1998-2001 Average)2.5 million mt (1998-2001 Average)
Average Annual Ex-Vessel value = $822 Average Annual Ex-Vessel value = $822 MillionMillion
Herring1%
Salmon28%
Shellfish21%
Nearshore0%
Groundfish50%
Bering Sea-Aleutians Groundfish Bering Sea-Aleutians Groundfish CatchCatch
25 Year History (in thousands of mt)25 Year History (in thousands of mt)
0200400600800
100012001400160018002000
Years 1977-2001
Exploitable BiomassExploitable Biomass
By Major Species Groups
BSAI Exploitable BiomassBSAI Exploitable BiomassYr 2003 Total = 19.66 MMTYr 2003 Total = 19.66 MMT
Pollock-EBS56%
Rockfish Total3%
Sablefish0%
Others4%
Atka Mackerel2%
Pacific Cod8%Pollock-
Bogoslof1%
Pollock-AI1%
Flatfish Total25%
BSAI Flatfish Complex BiomassBSAI Flatfish Complex BiomassYr 2003 Total = 4.88 MMTYr 2003 Total = 4.88 MMT
Yellowfin Sole32%
Flatfish Sole12%
Greenland Turbot
2%
Arrowtooth Flounder
13%
Rock Sole18%
Other Flatfish23%
BSAI Rockfish Complex BiomassBSAI Rockfish Complex BiomassYr 2002 Total = 596,000 MTYr 2002 Total = 596,000 MT
Northern27%
Other Red - AI2%
Other R - EBS1%
Shortraker+Rougheye
5%
POP65%
Estimated ABCsEstimated ABCsBy
Major Species Groups
BSAI Groundfish Complex ABCs BSAI Groundfish Complex ABCs Yr 2003 Total = 3.33 MMTYr 2003 Total = 3.33 MMT
(Up 147,000 mt from 2002)(Up 147,000 mt from 2002)
Pollock-EBS70%
Flatfishes 17%
Pollock-AI1%
Pollock-Bogoslof
1%
Pacific Cod7%
Atka Mackerel2%
Others1%
Sablefish0% Rockfish Total
1%
BSAI Flatfish Complex ABCBSAI Flatfish Complex ABCYr 2003 Total = 559,880 MTYr 2003 Total = 559,880 MT
Yellowfin Sole20%
Flatfish Sole12%
Greenland Turbot
1%
Arrowtooth Flounder
20%
Rock Sole20%
Alaska Plaice24%
Other Flatfish3%
BSAI Rockfish Complex ABCsBSAI Rockfish Complex ABCsYr 2003 Total = 24,663 MTYr 2003 Total = 24,663 MT
POP60%
Shortraker-Rougheye
4%
Other R - EBS2%
Other R - AI4% Northern
28%
DescriptionDescription
Species-by-SpeciesSpecies-by-Species
Assessment Theme Assessment Theme ABC = Biomass x Exploitation
Rate1. Determine Biomass from
-- Surveys….Hydroacoustics, Trawls-- Models…..Age or Length-Structure
Models2. Determine Exploitation Rates
-- F msy-- F overfishing ……. Example F 35%
-- F abc …………… Example F 40%
Assessment Theme Assessment Theme Fishing Rates chosen according to 6 Tiers of Data Quality (Pages 5-6 of SAFE Summary)
Tier 1 -- reliable B, Bmsy, pdf of Fmsy Tier 2 -- reliable B, Bmsy, Fmsy, F35, F40Tier 3 – reliable B, B40, F35, F40Tier 4 – reliable B, F35, F40Tier 5 -- reliable B and MTier 6 –- reliable Catch History Data
EBS PollockEBS Pollock
02468
10121416
78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 9820
0020
020
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Catch (MMT)Age 1 BillionsBiomass (MMT)
EBS Pollock AssessmentEBS Pollock AssessmentNotable FeaturesNotable Features
1. Year 2002 SurveysBottom Trawl Biomass = 4.82 mmt, up 16%EIT Survey Biomass = 3.6 mmt, up 18%
2. Year 2002 Models7 scenarios of Age-Structure Models, Used Model 1Age3+ Biomass for 2003 = 11.8 mmt, up 6%
3. Recruitment1998 & 1999 Year Classes both Above Average
Aleutian Island Region Aleutian Island Region Pollock AssessmentPollock Assessment
Survey Biomass
80
8386
9194 97 0
2
0100200300400500600
Year
1. Model don’t work, Not unit stock
2. Survey Biomass Year Biomass 1991 167,140 1994 77,503 1997 93,512 2000 105,554 2002 175,000
3. ABC = 0.75 * B2002
(Tier 5)
Bogoslof Region PollockBogoslof Region PollockSurvey BiomassSurvey Biomass
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 2000 2001 2002
Biomass (MMT)
Bogoslof Region Pollock ABCBogoslof Region Pollock ABC
1. Plan Team Method – Tier 5 ABC = Biomass x 0.75 M
ABC = 34,000 mt
2. SSC Method – Use 2 mmt as Target Biomass
ABC = 4,070 mt
BSAI Pacific CodBSAI Pacific Cod
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 9820
0020
020100200300400500600700800
Catch (MMT)
Age 3 RecruitsMillionsAge 3+Bio
96
Pacific Cod AssessmentPacific Cod AssessmentNotable FeaturesNotable Features
1. Year 2002 Surveys-- EBS Trawl Biomass = 617,000 t, down26%
2. Year 2002 Model-- Update of Last Year’s Model-- Estimated 2003 Age 3+ Biomass = 1.68 mmt, up 9%
3. Recruitment-- Year classes since 1992 have been below average-- Except for above average 1996 & 1999 year classes
EBS Yellowfin SoleEBS Yellowfin Sole
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 9820
0020
02
00.511.522.533.54
Catch (MMT)Age 5 BillionsAge 2+Biom
Yellowfin Sole AssessmentYellowfin Sole AssessmentNotable FeaturesNotable Features
1. Survey Biomass-- Relatively high biomass, doubled from 1975-79-- Declining in recent years as strong year classes passes out of the population2. Models-- Estimated 2003 Age 3+ Biomass = 1.55 mmt, down 1% -- biomass is still high but definitely declining3. Recruitment-- Lowered recruitment in last decade
EBS Greenland TurbotEBS Greenland Turbot
0100200300400500600700800
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70Catch (TMT)Age 2 MillionsAge 1+Biom (TMT)
Greenland Turbot AssessmentGreenland Turbot AssessmentNotable FeaturesNotable Features
1. Survey Biomass-- EBS Trawl Biomass assess juveniles only
2. Modeling-- Yr 2003 Age 1+ biomass = 115,700 mt, down 5-- biomass is generally low and relatively stable
3. Recruitment-- Generally Low recruitment in last 2 decades
EBS Arrowtooth FlounderEBS Arrowtooth Flounder
0100200300400500600700800900
76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 990100200300400500600700800900
Catch (TMT)Age 2 (Milions)Age 1+Biom (TMT)
EBS Rock SoleEBS Rock Sole
0200400600800
10001200140016001800
75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1
0.000
0.500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
3.500Catch (tmt)Age 4 BillionsAge 2+Biom (TMT)
EBS Flathead SoleEBS Flathead Sole
0100200300400500600700800900
0.0000.2000.4000.6000.8001.0001.2001.4001.600
Catch (TMT)Age 3 BillionsAge 3+Biom (TMT)
EBS Alaska PlaiceEBS Alaska Plaice
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1
0.000
0.500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
3.500
4.000Catch (TMT)Age 2 BillionsAge 1+Biom (tmt)
Bering Sea/Aleutians POPBering Sea/Aleutians POP
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 9820
0020
02
050100150200250300350400450500
Catch TMTAge 3 ThousandsAge 3+Biom (TMT)
POP AssessmentPOP AssessmentNotable FeaturesNotable Features
1. Present Assessment-- Single Model to Combined Bering Sea/Aleutians Areas
2. Biomass Trend-- Rather Stable Trend in recent years after some rebuilding
3. Recruitment-- Rather Poor Recruitment in recent years
Other Red Rockfish Other Red Rockfish Notable FeaturesNotable Features
1. Other Red Rockfish Split into:-- Northern-- Rougheye/Shortraker
2. Tier 5 ABC = Average 1991-2002 Survey Biomass x 0.75MStock EBS AleutiansNorthern 18 mt 6,6980 mt
(99.7%)Rougheye-Shortraker 137mt 830 mt
(85.8%)
Other Rockfish Other Rockfish AssessmentsAssessmentsNotable FeaturesNotable Features
1. Presently Managed as a Complex2. Author Recommend separating out Dusky Rockfish
-- Catch rate maybe as high as 34%3. Plan Team disagree, maybe catch rate estimated high
-- Noted survey biomass has not decreased
4. Tier 5 ABC = Survey Biomass x 0.75 MStock Year Survey Biomass ABC
EBS 2002 18,000 960
AI 2002 15,000 634
Aleutian Islands Atka Aleutian Islands Atka MackerelMackerel
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
Catch TMTAge 1 BillionsAge 3+Biom (TMT)
Atka Mackerel AssessmentAtka Mackerel AssessmentNotable FeaturesNotable Features
1. New Assessemnt Model – AD Model Builder2. Authors ABC Considerations
-- Survey Biomass 2002 = 773,000 mtup 51% from 2000 survey; Shows high variability
-- Yr 2003 Model biomass = 358,000 mt, down 7 % from Yr 2002;
-- Max Permissible F40 would yield ABC = 82,800 mt-- 1998 Year Class showing strength
3. Plan team favors using average F over last 5 years -- ABC = 51,000 mt -- slight increase over 2002 ABC of 49,000 mt
4. ABC apportioned by area using weighted last 4 survey biomass
Sablefish-all areasSablefish-all areas
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0.020.040.060.080.0100.0120.0140.0160.0
Catch (TMT)Age 2 MillionsAge 4+Biom (TMT)
Sablefish AssessmentSablefish AssessmentNotable FeaturesNotable Features
1. Longline Survey Abundance-- Increased 5% in numbers and 7% in weight
2. Modeling-- Abundance now appears moderate
and increased from recent lows3. ABC according to Tier 3b
-- Max Permissible F 40 adjusted gives ABC = 25,400 mt-- Team and Author recommend ABC = 18,400 mt
Simulation shows spawning biomass will have low probability of dropping below historic low biomass
4. ABC is apportioned by 5-year exponential weighting of abundance indices by region: EBS, AI & GOA
Squid AssessmentSquid AssessmentNotable FeaturesNotable Features
1. Squid ABC is calculated under Tier 6…. average catch from 1977-1995
2. Begin managing by Major Taxonomic Groups
a. For Sculpins & Skate …. ABC = Tier 5 Situation = 0.75M * Biomass
b. For Sharks and Octopus ….. ABC = Tier 6 = Average 1977-1995
Summary Summary (From Table 4)(From Table 4)(Pollock)(Pollock)
Stock Biomass (mt)
ABC (mt) ABC Change(2003 from 2002)
Pollock, EBS
11,100,000
2,330,000 Up 10 %
Pollock, AI 175,000 39,400 Up 65%Pollock, Bogoslof
232,000 34,000 Down 6%
Summary Summary ( fromTable 4)( fromTable 4) (Cod and Sablefish)(Cod and Sablefish)
Stock Biomass (mt)
ABC (mt) ABC Change(2003 from 2002)
Pacific Cod, BSAI
1,680,000 223,000 Same
Sablefish, EBS
31,000 2,550 Up 32 %
Sablefish, AI
39,000 2,740 Up 7 %
Summary ( fromTable 4) Summary ( fromTable 4) (Flatfishes)(Flatfishes)
Stock Biomass (mt)
ABC (mt) ABC Change(2002 fr 2001)
YellFn. Sole
1,554,000 114,000 Down 2 %
Grn. Turbot
112,000 5,880 Down 27 %
Arrow. Fl 597,000 112,000 Down 1 %Rock Sole 877,000 110,000 Down 51
%Flathead S 550,000 66,000 Down 20
%Alaska Plaice
1,083,000 137,000 Down 4 %
Other Flats 107,000 15,000 Down 17%
Summary Summary ( fromTable 4)( fromTable 4) (Rockfishes)(Rockfishes)
Stock Biomass (mt)
ABC (mt) ABC Change(2003 fr 2002)
POP, BSAI 375,000 15,100 Up 2 %Northern R 156,000 7,000 Up 4%ShortRaker-Rougheye
32,000 967 Down 6%
Other R, EBS 18,000 960 Up 165%Other R, AI 15,000 634 Down 6%
Summary Summary ( fromTable 4)( fromTable 4) (Atka Mackerel & Other Species)(Atka Mackerel & Other Species)
Stock Biomass (mt)
ABC (mt) ABC Change(2003 fr 2002)
Atka Mackerel
358,300 51,000 Up 4 %
Squid NA 1,970 No ChangeOther Species
695,000 60,800 Up 55 %
2003 Female Spawning Biomass 2003 Female Spawning Biomass versus Bversus B4040 Target Levels Target Levels
0
200
400
600
Pol Cod YS GT AF RS FS AP POP AM Sab
B40SpB2003
4 Cases when Max Permissible ABC 4 Cases when Max Permissible ABC was Adjusted Down by Plan Teamwas Adjusted Down by Plan Team
Stock Maximum Permissible ABC (mt)
Recommend PT ABC
(mt)
Main Reasons for Adjustment
Pacific Cod 278,000 223,000 Risk-Adverse Optimization
Green. Turbot
17,800 5,880 Low B & R
Sablefish, All 25,400 18,400 Simulated CatchAtka Mackerel
82,800 51,000 Average 5-Yr F
Spawning Biomass – Pacific CodSpawning Biomass – Pacific Cod
0100200300400500600700800900
78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 9820
00
B40FSB
Spawning Biomass – Greenland Spawning Biomass – Greenland TurbotTurbot
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98
2000
2002
B40FSB
Spawning Biomass – SablefishSpawning Biomass – Sablefish
050
100150200250300350400
60 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 84 87 90 93 96 9920
02
B40FSB
Projected Spawning Biomass – Atka Projected Spawning Biomass – Atka MackerelMackerel
0
50
100
150
200
250
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
B40FSB
Spawning Biomass – Yellowfin Spawning Biomass – Yellowfin SoleSole
0100200300400500600700800
64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 9820
0020
02
B40FSB
Spawning Biomass – Arrowtooth Spawning Biomass – Arrowtooth FlounderFlounder
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 9820
00
B40FSB
Spawning Biomass – Flathead SoleSpawning Biomass – Flathead Sole
050
100150200250300350400
77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 9920
01
B40FSB
Spawning Biomass – Alaska PlaiceSpawning Biomass – Alaska Plaice
050
100150200250300350400450
71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 9920
01
B40FSB
Spawning Biomass – Pacific Ocean Spawning Biomass – Pacific Ocean PerchPerch
0
50
100
150
200
250
60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98
2000
2002
B40FSB
Adjustments to ABCsAdjustments to ABCs- due to Ecosystems- due to Ecosystems
The Team was unable to isolate individual cases where ABC adjustments are needed to be made to address ecosystem concerns.
BSAI Groundfish ComplexBSAI Groundfish ComplexYr 2000 to Yr 2003Yr 2000 to Yr 2003
0
5
10
15
20
25
Biomass ABC
2000200120022003
Exploitable Biomass– 19.8 mmt for Yr 2003– Near Historical High
ABC– 3.33 mmt for Yr 2003– Near Historical High
Year 2003 SummaryYear 2003 Summary
0
1
2
3
4
ABC TAC
ABC = 3,331,001 mt
TAC = 2,000,000 mt
5 Cases when Plan Team ABC is 5 Cases when Plan Team ABC is different from SSC’s ABCdifferent from SSC’s ABC
Stock Plan Team ABC (mt)
SSC’s Recommend ABC (mt)
Main Reasons for Adjustment
Pollock, Bogoslof
34,000 4,070 SSC Adjusted F rate
Sable fish(EBS & AI)
18,400(2,550 &
2,740)
20,900(2,900 & 3,100)
PT – constant C SSC–similar trend
Northern Rockfish
7,000 121 EBS6980 AI
Reliability of Survey Biomass
Atka Mackerel
51,000 63,000 PT – Ave 5yr FSSC – constant buffer
Other Species
60,800 43,300
From Harvest Strategy (FFrom Harvest Strategy (F4040) Report) ReportFrom Page 121“It is easy enough to say that a management system could be made more protective of ecosystem properties…….
But current knowledge does not allow precise scientific specification of what margin or threshold would be appropriate to achieve what level of protection of various ecosystem properties”
From Harvest Strategy (FFrom Harvest Strategy (F4040) Report) ReportFrom Page 121“The decision to use F40% rather than F35% was deliberately protective, and was intended to function as a buffer against several sources of uncertainty”
“ Nevertheless, it is not clear how much of the margin between F35% and F40% was ‘allocated’ to ecosystem considerations”
ABC Rates for RockfishesABC Rates for Rockfishes
Stock Biomass (mt)
ABC (mt) ABC Rate
POP, BSAI 375,000 15,100 4.03 %Northern R 156,000 7,000 4.49 %ShortRaker-Rougheye
32,000 967 3.02 %
Other R, EBS 18,000 960 5.33 %Other R, AI 15,000 634 4.22 %
Adjust for Climatic Regime Adjust for Climatic Regime ShiftsShifts
3 Regimes – Years 1965 - 77– Years 1978 - 88– Period 1989 - 97 ?– Another Regime ?
Earlier Regimes– 1899-1924– 1925-47– 1948-76
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99
PC1 SCORES (Hare & Mantua)
?
End of Slide PresentationEnd of Slide Presentation
Utilization of ResourcesUtilization of Resources
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
3500000
Groundfish Shellfish Salmon Herring
RAYCPY
BSAI Groundfish ComplexBSAI Groundfish ComplexYr 2000 to Yr 2003Yr 2000 to Yr 2003
0
5
10
15
20
25
2000 2001 2002 2003
BiomassABC Exploitable Biomass
– 19.8 mmt for Yr 2003– Near Historical High
ABC– 3.289 mmt for Yr 2003– Near Historical High
Spawning BiomassSpawning Biomass
Spawning Biomass -- EBS Spawning Biomass -- EBS PollockPollock
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
B40FSB
Pacific Halibut CatchPacific Halibut Catch25 Year History (in thousands of mt)25 Year History (in thousands of mt)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Years 1977-2001
Gulf of Alaska Groundfish CatchGulf of Alaska Groundfish Catch25 Year History (in thousands of mt)25 Year History (in thousands of mt)
050
100150200250300350400
Years 1977-2001
EBS PollockEBS PollockLong-Term Biomass TrendLong-Term Biomass Trend
02468
10121416
Age 3+Biomass(MMT)Bottom Trawl SurveyBiomass (mmt)
Year-class estimates -- EBS PollockYear-class estimates -- EBS Pollock
Year class index
0
25,000
50,000
75,000
1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999
Num
bers
at a
ge 1
78
82
8992
96 98-99
BSAI Flatfish Complex BiomassBSAI Flatfish Complex BiomassYr 2003 Total = 4.88 MMT, downYr 2003 Total = 4.88 MMT, down
Yellowfin Sole33%
Flatfish Sole11%
Greenland Turbot
2%
Arrowtooth Flounder
12%
Rock Sole18%
Alaska Plaice22%
Other Flatfish2%
BSAI Rockfish Complex BiomassBSAI Rockfish Complex BiomassYr 2003 Total = 596,000 MTYr 2003 Total = 596,000 MT
POP63%
Shortraker-Rougheye
5%
Other RedR -EBS3%
Other RedR - AI3% Northern
26%
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