S. Muthiah – StAR Annual Conference 2019Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd.
BS6 Emission Norms & Vehicle Electrification
Presented by:
Dr. Saravanan Muthiah
Head – Advanced Technology
Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd.
Date:
Jan 25, 2019
StAR Annual Conference & Trade Show 2019, Kochi
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Presentation Flow: Contents
1) Introduction to Emission Regulations
2) Technology Options
3) Challenges in meeting BS6 Norms
4) Some Overall Trends
5) Vehicle Electrification
6) Opportunities
7) Summary
S. Muthiah – StAR Annual Conference 2019Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd.
Emission Norms - Introduction
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Air Pollution in India: PM2.5 (Particulate Matter 2.5 Microns)
Source: Berkeley Earth
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Sources of Particulate Matter: NCR Region
Source: ARAI / TERI, Aug 2018
Automotive Vehicles contribute < 25% to PM pollution in NCR.
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BS VI versus BS IV: Pollutant Limit Comparison
Source: Delphi Emission Booklet, 2017-18
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Improvements Required: BS VI vs BS IV
Spark Ignition (Gasoline) Compression Ignition (Diesel
Source: ICCT, April 2016
Implications are
more stringent for
Diesel Vehicles.
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Real Driving Emission (RDE) Implementation Map
Source: AVL, 2018
USA
Europe
Japan
India
Brazil
PEMS for detection
of defeat devices
Monitoring: April 2016
CFs: Sep 2017
L7, L8 Procedure to be
published by 2020.
Monitoring: 2022 ?
CFs: 2024/2027?
BS6
Monitoring: April 2020
CFs: April 2023
ChinaMonitoring: July 2020
CFs: July 2023
South Korea Sep 2017 (Diesel Only)
2022 CF2 (Diesel Only)
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Source: AVL, 2018
Ambient Temperature Altitude Vehicle Weight
TRAFFIC
Rural (45-65 kmph)Urban (<45 kmph) Highway (>65 kmph)
~ 1/3rd of Each part (Distance = 16km/part, Total time = 90 to 120 min)
Gradient ≤ 1200m / 100km, Abs. Altitude ≤ 1300 m
Low/High Temperature (8 to +45 deg. C)
Upto ~ Max. Allowed Vehicle Weight
RDE Emission Challenges: Real World Operation
S. Muthiah – StAR Annual Conference 2019Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd.
Technology Options
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Emission Strategies: Engine Out & Exhaust After-treatment
Engine Out Emission Control:
• Low pressure EGR
• High rail pressures
• Throttle control
• Injector rate shaping
• Multiple injections
After Treatment Pollution Control:
• Lean Nox Trap (LNT)
• Selective Catalyst Reduction
(SCR)
• Diesel Particle Filter (DPF)
• Gasoline Particle filter (GDPF)
Source: VW
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After-treatment Technologies: NOx
Source: Ford, 2015 Source: VW
S. Muthiah – StAR Annual Conference 2019Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd.
Challenges
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Emission Regulation Timelines: EU vs India
2005
EU4
2006 2007 2008 2009
EU5
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
EU6
2015 2016 2017
EU6 RDE
2018 2019 2020
BS4
Only Metros
BS4
Across India
BS6
5 Years
3 Years
Lead time available for BS6 norms is much shorter. This puts a lot of stress on development timelines.
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BS6 Compliance Cost: Diesel Vehicles
BS6 would make diesel vehicles much more expensive than similar Gasoline vehicles.
Source: Hindu Businessline, Jan 2018
Engine Capacity Cost Est. (Rs)
1.5L ~ 50K
2.0L ~ 70K – 125K
>2.5L ~ 100K – 150K
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Regulatory Challenges: Indian Scenario
1996 2000 2005 2010 2014 20171992
BS1BS2 BS3
BS4
BS1BS2
BS3
Nationwide
Major cities
BS4 OBDII
2013
2020 2022
BS4 BS6
CAFÉ Stage-2 norms in 2022 and Govt. of India’s intent to electrify most of the vehicle fleet by 2030
could be important milestones with regards to transmission trends.
STAGE - 1 STAGE - 2
2030
ELECTRIFICATION
EMISSION
CAFE Nationwide for
M1 Vehicles
Source: Figure adapted from presentation by Mr. IV Rao, MSIL
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FE Regulations
A
B
Industry Reference PointA – FE Corresponds to 129.8 g/km @ 1037 kgB – FE Corresponds to 113.0 g/km @ 1145 kg
Baseline = 3.5*
2* upper limit line
CAFÉ (Corporate Avg. FE) Star Labelling
S. Muthiah – StAR Annual Conference 2019Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd.
Some Overall Trends
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Market Trends in Passenger Vehicles (M1): India
Source: ICCT, Sept 2018
SUVs are gaining traction while diesels are losing their charm.
Cars
SUV
Diesel
Gasoline
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CO2 versus Curb Weight : Passenger Vehicles (M1) - India
Source: ICCT, Sept 2018
• CO2 reduction has
resulted in renewed
focus on
lightweighting
• Opportunity for
alternative materials
S. Muthiah – StAR Annual Conference 2019Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd.
Vehicle Electrification
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Electrification: Vehicle Types
Source: MIT
Battery
Transmission
Motor/Generator
Motor/Generator
Battery Fuel
Transmission
Engine
Fuel
Transmission
Engine
Battery ElectricHybridConventional ICE
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Is Electrification Hype Real?
Source: IEA, 2018
Electrification looks
imminent. The pace
of electrification
could differ.
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Battery Price: Li-Ion
Source: Blooomberg
USD / kW-Hr
2019$ 157.9 2025
$ 96.5
Li-ion Battery pack price has dropped by 70% in the last 5 years.
2014$ 540
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Cost of Ownership Analysis : Passenger Vehicles
Source: Ernst & Young 2017
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Would Enough Electricity be Available for Charging?
Source: Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, May 2017
Additional energy requirement from BEVs is
only 3.3% (82 TWh/year) of the total electric
energy demand in 2030.
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EV Sales Projections: India
Source: Avalon Consulting / IMC
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Impact of Electrification: Auto Components
Vehicle electrification would have a significant impact on Auto Component Industry.
Source: Ernst & Young 2017
S. Muthiah – StAR Annual Conference 2019Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd.
Opportunities (Sample)
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Some Opportunities: Conventional Vehicle
Fuel Tank Urea Tank
Engine Belt Cover
Oil Sump
Engine Cover Cam Cover
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Battery Box
Harness ShieldsController Box
Wheel Arch LinerHVAC Duct
Thermal Ducts
Some Opportunities: Electric Vehicle
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Summary
India is on the path to a 2-step emission norm upgrade (BS4 BS6) in a short span on 3 years.
Exhaust emission technology needs to be tailored for India specific conditions.
High cost especially for Diesel after-treatment solutions is a cause of concern. This has the potential to negatively impact diesel market share further.
CAFÉ Stage 2 norms and Electrification would bring in more focus on vehicle weight reduction.
With due diligence, this can be converted into an opportunity for further usage of Rotomolded parts in automotive applications.
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References
1) Berkeley Earth Website: http://berkeleyearth.org/air-quality-real-time-map/ (accessed on Jan 16, 2019)
2) “Source Apportionment of PM2.5 & PM10 of Delhi NCR for Identification of Major Sources”, Report No. ARAI/16-17/DHI-SA-NCR/Exec_Summ, August 2018
3) “Worldwide Emission Standards – Passenger Cars and Light Duty Vehicles: 2017 |18 ”, Delphi
4) “INDIA BHARAT STAGE VI EMISSION STANDARDS”, ICCT, April 2016
5) “LNT or Urea SCR Technology:Which is the right technology for TIER 2 BIN 5 passenger vehicles?“, 12th DEER conference, 2006, Richard Dorenkamp Diesel Engine Development, Volkswagen AG, Wolfsburg
6) “Emissions Overview, stage 6 addressing real driving”, Future Powertrain Conference 2015, Jon Caine, Ford Motor Company
7) https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/national/bs-vi-policy-diesel-cars-could-get-priced-off-the-roads/article9962588.ece(accessed on Jan 19, 2019)
8) “Auto industry preparedness for advancement of vehicular technologies & Fuel efficiency in India”, IV Rao, MSIL, 2014
9) “Compliance with India’s first fuel consumption standards for new passenger cars (FY 2017–2018)”, ICCT, Sept 2018
10) “Electric Vehicles 101”, MIT EVT, Dan Lauber, 2009
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References (Contd. )
11) “Global EV Outlook 2018”, IEA
12) Bloomberg: “https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-22/electric-car-costs-set-to-fall”
13) “Standing up India’s EV ecosystem - who will drive the charge?”, Ernst & Young, 2017
14) “Techno-Economic Assessment of Deep Electrification of Passenger Vehicles in India”, Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, May 2017
15) “ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN INDIA, Prospects and Challenges”, Avalon Consulting & IMC
16) Photos from various sources (Google, Amazon, Ebay and others)
S. Muthiah – StAR Annual Conference 2019Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd.
Thank You
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