Big Data at
BBVA Research Big Data Workshop
University of Navarra
Tomasa Rodrigo
BBVA Research
MARCH 2017
2
INDEX
Outline
Big data and education: challenges and opportunities
Big Data analysis at BBVA Research
Digital revolution and the new business
environment
3
Index
Outline
Big data and education: challenges and opportunities
Big Data analysis at BBVA Research
Digital revolution and the new business
environment
Geopolitics
Analysis
Economic
Analysis
OUR
STREAM
OF ANALYSIS
&
BIG DATA
4
Geopolitics Analysis
Tracking Geopolitics on real time is useful to center
conflict zones & potential spillovers… BBVA World Conflict Index Heatmap in 2017 (Number of conflict / Total events)
Source: www.gdelt.org & BBVA Research 5
http://www.gdelt.org/E032202logo geo
Geopolitics Analysis
We also monitor Conflict & Social unrest from an
historical perspective... BBVA Research World Protest Intensity Index
1980-2017 (Number of protests in the world / Total events in the world)
BBVA Research World Conflict Intensity Index
1980-2017 (Number of conflicts in the world / Total events in the world)
Source: www.gdelt.org & BBVA Research Source: www.gdelt.org & BBVA Research
0.006
0.008
0.01
0.012
0.014
0.016
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
High
Medium Range
Low
0.026
0.036
0.046
0.056
0.066
0.076
0.086
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
High
Low
Medium Range
6
http://www.gdelt.org/http://www.gdelt.org/
Social and Geopolitical Analysis
… as well as the evolution over time in each country,
identifying hot spots and contagion effects BBVA Research World Protest Intensity Map Jan 2008– Mar 2017 (Number of protests/ Total events)
Protest Intensity: Low High
USA
UK
Norway
Sweden
Austria
Germany
France
Netherlands
Italy
Spain
Belgium
Ireland
Portugal
Greece
Morocco
Algeria
Tunisia
Libya
Egypt
Israel
Jordan
Syria
Iraq
Iran
UAE
Yemen
Bahrain
Qatar
Oman
Saudi Arabia
N.
Afr
ica &
Mid
dle
East
Develo
ped
Mark
ets
2008 2011 2012 20132009 2010 2014 2015 2016 *
7 Source: www.gdelt.org & BBVA Research
http://www.gdelt.org/
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Ma
r-1
5
Apr-
15
Ma
y-1
5
Jun-1
5
Jul-1
5
Aug-1
5
Sep-1
5
Oct-
15
No
v-1
5
De
c-1
5
Jan-1
6
Feb
-16
Ma
r-1
6
Apr-
16
Ma
y-1
6
Jun-1
6
Jul-1
6
Aug-1
6
Sep-1
6
Oct-
16
No
v-1
6
De
c-1
6
Jan-1
7
Feb
-17
Ma
r-1
7
PMI edges up on stimulus measures
PPI turns positive
1st series of stock
market crashes
"Black Monday"
2nd stock market
crash,
trade halted for 3
days
PMI falls
to 4-Y
low
RMB enters IMF's
SDR basket
NPC meeting
De
terio
ratin
g S
entim
ent
(Hig
he
r V
uln
era
bil
ity)
Imp
rovin
g S
entim
ent
(Lo
we
r V
uln
era
bil
ity)
3% Devaluation
Economic world
conference
Neutral Area +- 0.5 std
Positive
Negative
China Macroeconomic Sentiment Index (Additive principal component based Indicator using thematic subsets of information terms, 42 items)
8
Economic Analysis
Big Data allows us to track Macroeconomic
Sentiment…
Source: www.gdelt.org & BBVA Research
http://www.gdelt.org/
Oman
Qatar
Iran
Kazakhstan
Russia
U.A.E.
Iraq
NicaraguaSaudi ArabiaMexico
Chile
Dominican R.Brazil
Bolivia
Ecuador
Venezuela
Peru
Panama
Argentina
Spain
Austria
Ukraine
Israel
Greece
Poland
Belgium
Czech Republic
ItalyNetherlands
Finland
Ireland
Iceland
Portugal
Hungary
Yemen
Sri Lanka
Macau
Indonesia
Philippines
Taiwan
Cambodia
Pakistan
Turkey
Brunei
N. Zealand
Burkina Faso
Singapore
Thailand
Malaysia
Zimbabwe
UgandaNigeria
Zambia
CongoMozambique
Kenya
Sweden
Angola
E. Guinea
EthiopiaSouth Africa
France
US
UK
Japan
Australia
Canada
S. Korea India
Switzerland
Germany
Hong Kong
China
Economic Analysis
…as well as economic events with important world
economic and geostrategic effects…
Conversation on Oil demand
Activity Impact in EM Asia
Impact on commodity Exporters from Africa
Impact on commodity Exporters from Latam
Activity Impact in Europe
Financial & Trade lines impaired (Main trade partners)
Very High Very Low
China slowdown: concerns and contagion globally may be monitored in 2H 2015
Source: www.gdelt.org & BBVA Research 9
http://www.gdelt.org/
A “High Definition” Activity Indicator for Spain (and Mexico) (BBVA consumption indicator for the optimal allocation of BBVA’s resources and products)
What “HIGH DEFINITION(*)” means here:
Economic Analysis
We also replicate national figures, gaining frequency…
High granularity: Dynamics down to subnational level
Ultra High Frequency: Dynamics up to sub-monthly
frequency
Multi Dimensional: More detailed socioeconomic features
ICM–BBVA Index, in millions of euros and daily basis Comparison Retail Sales-INE and BBVA on monthly basis
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Jan-1
3
Apr-
13
Jul-1
3
Oct-
13
Jan-1
4
Apr-
14
Jul-1
4
Oct-
14
Jan-1
5
Apr-
15
Jul-1
5
Oct-
15
Jan-1
6
Apr-
16
Jul-1
6
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
Jan-1
3
Apr-
13
Jul-1
3
Oct-
13
Jan-1
4
Apr-
14
Jul-1
4
Oct-
14
Jan-1
5
Apr-
15
Jul-1
5
Oct-
15
Jan-1
6
Apr-
16
Jul-1
6
BBVA transactions Retail sales
10 Source: BBVA Research and BBVA Data & Analytics
Source: BBVA Research and BBVA Data & Analytics
BBVA transactions 1S15 vs 1S16 (% yoy)
País Vasco
Economic Analysis
… and granularity, going to regional level
Interannual transaction growth (%, 1S15-1S16)
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16
BBVA transactions
Álava Guipúzcoa Vizcaya
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
Ja
n-1
3
Ju
l-13
Ja
n-1
4
Ju
l-14
Ja
n-1
5
Ju
l-15
Ja
n-1
6
Ju
l-16
BBVA transactions
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
Ja
n-1
3
Ju
l-13
Ja
n-1
4
Ju
l-14
Ja
n-1
5
Ju
l-15
Ja
n-1
6
Ju
l-16
BBVA transactions
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
Ja
n-1
3
Ju
l-13
Ja
n-1
4
Ju
l-14
Ja
n-1
5
Ju
l-15
Ja
n-1
6
Ju
l-16
BBVA transactions
11
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Eg
yp
t
India
Chin
a
Tu
rke
y
Ph
ilipp
ines
Me
xic
o
Vie
tna
m
Ira
n
Ma
laysia
Ru
ssia
Indo
nesia
Pa
kis
tan
Bra
zil
Ba
ng
lade
sh
Nig
eri
a
Media sentiment digital index and ranking for Emerging Asia countries, US and Europe 2015-16 by components
Source: BBVA Research, www.gdelt.org
Emerging Asia US Europe
-2.4-1.9-1.4-0.9-0.40.10.61.11.62.12.6
ap
r-1
5
ma
y-1
5
jun-1
5
jul-15
au
g-1
5
sep-1
5
oct-
15
no
v-1
5
de
c-1
5
jan-1
6
feb-1
6
ma
r-1
6
Digital Economy
-2.4
-1.4
-0.4
0.6
1.6
2.6
ap
r-1
5
ma
y-1
5
jun-1
5
jul-15
au
g-1
5
sep-1
5
oct-
15
no
v-1
5
de
c-1
5
jan-1
6
feb-1
6
ma
r-1
6
Fintech
-2.4
-1.4
-0.4
0.6
1.6
2.6
ap
r-1
5
ma
y-1
5
jun-1
5
jul-15
au
g-1
5
sep-1
5
oct-
15
no
v-1
5
de
c-1
5
jan-1
6
feb-1
6
ma
r-1
6
Digital Regulation
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
India
Chin
a
Tu
rke
y
Ira
n
Pa
kis
tan
Ph
ilipp
ines
Eg
yp
t
Indo
nesia
Me
xic
o
Ma
laysia
Ba
ng
lade
sh
Vie
tna
m
Bra
zil
Nig
eri
a
Ru
ssia
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Chin
a
Pa
kis
tan
Bra
zil
Ru
ssia
Ph
ilipp
ines
Nig
eri
a
Ba
ng
lade
sh
Eg
yp
t
Tu
rke
y
Ma
laysia
Vie
tna
m
Indo
nesia
Ira
n
Me
xic
o
India
Economic Analysis
Using information from media, we get insights about
the sentiment on several digital issues
12
BBVA Research geostrategic tools and products
BBVA Research webpage
in the following link
You can find us at:
13
https://www.bbvaresearch.com/en/category/themes/geostrategy/
Index
Outline
Big data and education:
challenges and
opportunities
Big Data analysis at
BBVA Research
Digital revolution and
the new business
environment
14
The growth generated by innovation and digital transformation has five
sources:
New
players and
markets
The
introduction of
new goods
and services
New
production
and
distribution
methods
Changes in the
production
factors
Changes in the
organization
and
management
of firms
Big Data: a new paradigm that will transform the
business landscape…
15
… with high potential to grow
95%
2%
3%
Big Data as an opportunity to grow
Big Data as a threat
Big Data effects will be neutral
Source: BBVA Research and Grant Thornton’s International Business Report
Big Data leads to important changes in the
current production structures
The new available information allows:
Improve and enrich our decisions
Answer new questions
Increase efficiency
There are still some concerns:
× Data confidentiality
× Cyber security
× New framework to be regulated
How do corporate leaders see the new
technologies?
16
Opportunities and challenges in the financial sector
It’s an opportunity to …
become more efficient
improve risk management
generate greater value for
customers
… but with important challenges
Access to the
infrastructure
Education and
training programs
17
18
Index
Outline
Big data and education:
challenges and
opportunities
Big Data analysis at
BBVA Research
Digital revolution and
the new business
environment
Education programs need to incorporate new
competences to take advantage of this new era…
New skills are focused on
Deepening the
Statistical and
econometric skills
to analyze the data
Interpreting the
results: summarize,
describe and
analyze the
information
Developing the data
management and
programming
capabilities to work
with large-scale
datasets
New data may end up changing the way economists approach empirical
questions and the tools they use to answer them.
Making the right
questions
19
… and to match market’s demand
The most in-demand skills in the next years will be
Business
intelligence and
analytics
Big data expertise Security, compliance
and governance
New data will also transform the business demanded competences to adapt to
the digital era and to exploit its potential
Programming and
application
development
20
Thank you
Big Data at
BBVA Research Big Data Workshop
University of Navarra
Tomasa Rodrigo
BBVA Research
MARCH 2017
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