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Aviation at a Crossroads?
AGTA Annual MeetingSeattle, WaSeptember 22, 2009 Robert M. Peterson
Technical Fellow
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Agenda
This afternoon’s tour logistics Current Market Outlook Challenges
Airport Airside ATC/ATM Security Economics Environment Airport Landside Other
Closing comment
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Factory Tour
Badges No cameras Approved shoes
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Acceptable Not Acceptable
Shoes for the Everett Factory Floor
Summary of Requirements
Examples: “Mary Janes”, Sandals, Crocs, “Sling-backs”, other casual and dress shoes that do NOT meet the “foot coverage” and “heel dimension” requirements.
Examples:Tennis shoes, closed heel clogs, casual and dress shoes that meet the “foot coverage” and “heel dimension” requirements.
Add a Picture
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Where is commercial aviation in the US headed?
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20-year forecast: strong long-term growth
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Air travel growth has been met by increased frequencies and nonstops
Frequency GrowthNonstop Markets
Average Airplane Size
Air Travel Growth
August OAG
WorldIndex 1988=1.00
All routes
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
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RPKs, billions
Region’s Average Growth: 3.2%
Region’s Average GDP Growth: 2.4%
North American air travel growth varies by market
2007 traffic2007 trafficAdded Traffic
2008 - 2027Added Traffic
2008 - 2027Annualgrowth %
4.6
2.5
3.5
3.2
6.7
6.0
6.7
6.9
5.7
6.6
7.4
0 400 800 1,200 1,600
North Americato/from Africa
North America to/fromSouthwest Asia
North Americato/from Oceania
North Americato/from Middle East
North America to/fromSoutheast Asia
North Americato/from China
North America to/fromSouth America
North America to/fromNortheast Asia
North America to/fromCentral America
North Americato/from Europe
WithinNorth America
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North American airlines will need 7,690 new airplanes
LargeTwin-aisleSingle-aisleRegional jet
Size category
Market value: $680 billion
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2,920 Growth
38%
2,010Retained Fleet
2008 2028
More than half of North America deliveries will be replacements
4,770 Replacement
62%
9,7009,700
7,690
6,7806,780
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
Units
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North American long-haul routes to nearly double
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North America forecast vs. backlog7,690 New Airplane Deliveries2009 to 2028
900 Airplane Backlog2009
27Regional jets
3%
661Single-aisle
73%
203Twin-aisle
23%
12Large1%
3 4890Regional jets
11%
5,630Single-aisle
73%
1,130Twin-aisle
15%
40Large1%
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
0
200
400
600
800
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North America – Top 10 Airports in 2007
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Atlanta Chicago-ORD
LosAngeles
Dallas/FortWorth
Denver New York-JFK
Las Vegas Houston Phoenix Orlando
To
tal
Pas
sen
ger
s (M
illi
on
s)
Source: ACI
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Challenges – Airport Airside
Geography
Technology
Economics
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Challenges – ATC/ATM
Technology
Money
Politics
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Challenges – Security
100% Cargo Screening (in passenger aircraft bellies)
Risk Management
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Challenges – Economics
Current Credit/Fiscal Crisis
Fuel Price volatility
Recession focuses government attention away from capacity for growth
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Challenges – Environment
What are the rules going to be?
How does aviation participate cost effectively?
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Challenges – Airport Landside
Local Transportation
Land Use
“Green”
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Challenges – Other
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Final Comments
Growth Will Return – When?
Are we in the middle of the “Perfect Storm?” Will it set the industry onto a new course?
Will there be another one soon?
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The next Current Market Outlook
The 2009 version of the CMO is available on our website
http://www.boeing.com/commercial/cmo/index.html
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